Core Synopsis:
1. On the evening of November 9, local time, Russia announced its abandonment of the city of Kherson. The current situation of both Russia and Ukraine is difficult: the Ukrainian army is forced to carry out a war of attrition, and the Russian army's logistics are also unsustainable. The new commander-in-chief of the Russian army, Surovikin, stressed that continuing to hold Kherson could cause heavy casualties; Although the decision to retreat was very difficult, the move was still necessary. The Ukrainian side is cautious about this news.
2. The Russian army wants to withdraw from the west bank of the Dnieper to the east bank and surrender Kherson to Ukraine, which does not seem to fit Russia's tough image; But the organized retreat in front of the enemy is the most difficult combat operation than the offensive. The Russian army has blown up a number of bridges and communication towers in Kherson to prevent the Ukrainian army from obtaining intelligence. Whether the elite units of the Russian army can be evacuated in an orderly manner has also become the key to considering the situation.
3. The current state of the war will undoubtedly delight Ukrainians and deal a further blow to Russia. However, in order to control the Novokakhovka Dam, the Russian army still had to garrison Kherson Oblast south of the Dnieper River to provide water for the Crimean Peninsula. The Russian army wants to keep Nova Kakhovka, and the next offensive of the Ukrainian army remains to be seen. Now rainy days, muddy roads and drift ice will hinder the Ukrainian army's attack, and the Russian army may take the opportunity to continue to strengthen its defenses.
4. The US midterm elections are unlikely to affect the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and although the Republican Party has won a narrow victory, it is a fool's dream to expect the Republican Party to stop supporting Ukraine after winning Congress. Biden's aid bill to Ukraine signed this year has bipartisan support, and the focus of the midterm elections is also on the domestic rather than the Russian-Ukrainian war. With the pro-Russian "Trump gang" taking a hit, the United States will not give up the opportunity to continue to weaken its arch-enemy Russia.
Author| Tang Barbihu
Honorary chief writer of the Phoenix News client
On the evening of November 9, local time, Russia announced its decision to abandon the city of Kherson. As just explained the situation of the Russian and Ukrainian armies in two articles before:
1. From the perspective of the battlefield alone, the Ukrainian army has limited ability to attack fortifications, and the Russian army once increased its troops in reverse, pulling 20,000 people up, and the strength of the two sides became 60,000 to 40,000. The Ukrainian army can only be changed to a war of attrition, which is difficult to fight.
2. But from a logistical point of view, the Ukrainian army "Haimas" cut off 4 railway and road bridges in Antonivka and Nova Kakhovka, and continues to block the ferry crossings of the Russian army. The Russian army is very difficult in logistics and cannot really maintain the combat operation of 40,000 troops.
In the end, the order to retreat was given. At the end of the previous article, it is written - "In fact, to withdraw or not to withdraw is mainly due to Putin's thoughts." It also lies in off-site factors, the ability of the Ukrainian army to tackle tough positions and other keys. ”
Interestingly, when Russia announced the decision, there was a 10-minute public "debriefing performance" of thoughts.
Sergei Surovitin, the new commander-in-chief of the Russian army's "special military operation," reported to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu:
"After a comprehensive assessment of the current situation, it is recommended to take defensive positions on the left bank of the Dnieper. I understand that this is a very difficult decision.
At the same time, and most importantly, we will protect the lives of our servicemen and the combat effectiveness of the entire unit, which is now kept in a limited area on the right bank is hopeless. ”
Surovikin also said: "Kherson and neighboring settlements are not adequately supplied and functioning, people's lives are constantly at risk." ”
He stressed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to shell the Novokakhovka Dam - which could provoke flooding and cause heavy casualties.
Shoigu "responded": "For us, the life and health of Russian servicemen is always a top priority, and we must take into account the threat to civilians and ensure that all civilians can leave." ”
"Continue the withdrawal of troops and take all measures to ensure the safe transfer of personnel, weapons and equipment to the Dnieper." It seems that no matter what time period Shoigu said, the life and health of Russian servicemen are definitely the top priority at the moment.
In any case, Russian troops will withdraw from Kherson Oblast on the west bank of the Dnieper River and no longer occupy the capital of Kherson Oblast, the city of Kherson, which is the only regional capital occupied by Russian troops since the start of the war offensive in February.
The abandonment of Kherson by the Russian army represents another major setback for the Russian army. What about the attack on Odessa that some public opinion said before? Doesn't it mean that Ukraine will become landlocked by the end of the year?
The vast majority of Russian media and military commentary programs believe that this is a humiliating failure, but there are still a few people who firmly believe that this is a big chess game under the Russian army, ready to lure the Ukrainian army into Moscow's Red Square, and then encircle and annihilate it in one fell swoop.
Ukraine, on the other hand, reacted cautiously to the news of a full withdrawal. Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian president's office, said on Twitter that the Ukrainian side "does not see any signs that Russia will leave Kherson without a fight."
Podolyak said that part of the Russian army is still present in Kherson. He said Ukraine would "liberate territories based on intelligence data obtained" rather than "arranged televised statements."
In addition, Podolyak said in a statement to Reuters: "There is no point in talking about the withdrawal of Russian troops before the Ukrainian flag flies over Kherson." ”
Can the elite of the Russian army escape
The new "Battle of Stalingrad" was gone (the city crossed the Volga, the Soviet troops fought on the west bank, and the eastern bank was constantly replenished with troops and ammunition). The Russian army is going to withdraw from the west bank of the Dnieper to the east bank and cede Kherson to Ukraine.
However, compared with the attack, the organized retreat in front of the enemy is the most difficult combat operation, and how to organize an orderly retreat in front of the enemy without being completely broken, surrounded, and annihilated by the enemy forces tests the ability of commanders and troops.
Just as Dunkirk became a miracle of the history of war. Surovikin said that the movement of troops will be carried out soon, and a systematic retreat from the Kherson bridgehead is underway.
But now the retreat of the Russian army can only rely on 4 groups of ferries to cross the river. Even if the 40,000 Russian troops in Hexi can retreat with their whole body, tens of thousands of sets of heavy equipment cannot be withdrawn, which will give the Ukrainian army another big gift.
In order to slow down the Ukrainian advance when the Russian army retreated, since November 8, the Russian army has blown up a number of bridges in Kherson, and also blew up mobile communication towers in many villages and towns to prevent local residents from ventilating messages to the Ukrainian army.
Previously, at the Kherson bridgehead, the most elite independent branch of the Russian army - the Airborne Forces had been fully assembled - all 4 divisions (nearly 76, nearly 98, nearly 7, almost 106) and all 4 brigades (nearly 31, 11, 83, special operations 45).
In addition, there are the 22nd Army of the Black Sea Fleet and the 49th Army of the Southern Military District, which have been fighting hard in this direction. As well as the recently reinforced Far Eastern Military District, naval infantry units.
Although it has been broken in a hundred battles, there are only 40,000 people left, but it is still the last elite force of the Russian army.
Since it is an elite, can it rely on multiple defensive lines to retreat in echelons, maintain combat order and command, and alternate defending, covering, and transferring. This will be an important moment to test whether the elite units of the Russian army still have morale, organization and combat effectiveness.
The retreat of Russian troops will take several days. If the Russian army can achieve an orderly withdrawal and withdraw these tens of thousands of elite personnel relatively completely, it will be unfavorable to Ukraine.
It is reported that Russian troops are withdrawing from all positions on the north bank of the river in Kherson; The Ukrainian army has obtained an excellent opportunity to strike at the retreating Russian army in the movement, and the "Haimas" rocket artillery will definitely not let go of this opportunity.
On the evening of the 8th, the Russian army had retreated from Snihurivka, a key bridgehead on the Inhulets River, and a large number of Russian heavy equipment were bombed by the Ukrainian army.
On the morning of the 9th, the Russian army began to retreat from the direction of Mylove on the northern front of Kherson, and Ukrainian drones took the opportunity to strike at the marching columns of the Russian army.
In addition, the Russian-appointed "deputy governor of Kherson region" Kirill Stremousov was "killed in a car accident" during the retreat, and the upper part of the bulletproof car in which he was riding was directly blown off.
The goal of the Russian command remains to maintain the combat capability of the troops and to withdraw military equipment to the maximum. Avoid the collapse of the bridgehead under the surprise attack of the Ukrainian army, resulting in heavy losses of the Russian army, loss of combat capability and even being "dumplings".
The next few days will be the crucial moment to observe the battlefield in Kherson in depth. If 40,000 Russian troops can be withdrawn to the east bank of the Dnieper River with 4 ferry passages and the seed power of the Russian army can be rescued to death, Surovikin can really fight a god.
The southern shore of Kherson with Crimean water
From the end of September the "referendum" announced the annexation of Kherson, and the four oblasts became "subjects of the Russian Federation"; Then the big retreat in early November, but just over a month. It is tantamount to Russia's admission of the "special military operation" as a failure.
From the all-out offensive in February and March to the key offensive in April, May and June; Then there was a strategic stalemate in July, a comprehensive defense in August, and a key defense in September and October. Now that the Russian army is already seeking to rule the river, the next step is to move to the southwest.
In total, Russian forces have occupied more than 200,000 square kilometers of land in Ukraine since the outbreak of the war. However, after a series of successful counterattacks by the Ukrainian army, the area occupied by the Russian army has dropped to 100,000 square kilometers.
Izyum, Liman, now the only state capital city of Kherson. This is a very heavy blow to Russia's international prestige and popular morale. And for Ukrainians, it is self-evident how inspiring the recapture of a state capital city will be.
When the Ukrainian army peacefully recaptures the city of Kherson, Zelensky will immediately go to inspect and raise the flag, just as in mid-September, Zelensky visited Izyum. And for the Russian army, Russia, it is a further loss of prestige.
Of course, how Russia is also a Slavic nation, the Russian army will not give up. Here it is said that in the general direction, the Dnieper River runs through central Ukraine, running from Kiev to the Black Sea, dividing the Ukrainian land into east and west.
But specifically in Zaporozhye to the south, the river turns southwest and flows west into the sea. In the Kherson section, the north and south shores are precise. Of course, it is more accurate to say "left bank" and "right bank".
Now the Russian army has only withdrawn from Kherson Oblast, north of the Dnieper, and the southern bank is still to be held. Because Kherson Oblast controls the water sources of the Crimea, the intake of the canal is on the southern bank, right next to the dam in Nova Kakhovka.
The Crimean peninsula has little rainfall, lack of rivers, drought and lack of water. In 1954, Khrushchev transferred Crimea from Russia to Ukraine in order to build this canal and facilitate management and coordination.
Aqueducts draw water from the Novokakhovka reservoir from the Dnieper to the Crimea. Before the war, the canal supplied 80% of Crimea's water.
When Russia instigated the "return of Crimea" in 2014, Ukraine cut off water canals, leaving large areas of Crimea's farmland abandoned. This year, when the Russian army entered and occupied Kherson, the first thing was to release the open gate and release water, and the Crimea was cheering.
If the Ukrainian army only recovers the northern shore, it will not affect the water supply of Crimea. But to say that the Ukrainian army is coming along the dam - this is not difficult, then it is different.
New estimates of the recent war situation
Therefore, Russia cannot abandon Nova Kakhovka in any way. Even if the city of Kherson is lost, Novokakhovka will be saved. This is the lifeblood of the Russian occupation of Crimea.
Now the barricades laid by the Russian army in the city of Kherson, as well as on the banks of the Dnieper, are all prefabricated machine-gun shelters of reinforced concrete delivered by truck the other day.
Of course, after clearing the northern bank, it remains to be seen whether Ukraine will storm the southern bank directly along the dam or slowly from north to south from Zaporozhye Oblast in the east of the river under its control.
After all, the Dnieper ice after December is also an obstacle to the Ukrainian offensive. But in any case, in the southern part of Kherson Oblast, especially in Novokakhovka, the war in the southwest still had to be fought.
But in fact, from the point of view of the Ukrainian army, the Russian army running away from Kherson is not the best result. It is the best solution to let the last elite heavy army group of the Russian army trap Kherson, and then lose combat effectiveness due to lack of supplies in the cold winter.
Now, the continuous rainy weather and muddy terrain have also greatly affected the counteroffensive operations of the Ukrainian army. Only after temperatures continue to drop at the end of November, rain turns to snow, and the land freezes hard, Ukrainian forces can launch a further counteroffensive.
Taking advantage of this period of calm, the Russian army should further strengthen the fortifications. But every time there is a festival, Russia has to give a big surprise.
Mid-Autumn Izyum, Eleven Dividend Liman. Now that Double 11 has not fallen, will the next "goodwill retreat" be Double 12 or New Year's Day?
Midterm elections and the situation in Russia and Ukraine?
By the way, let's briefly talk about the midterm elections in the United States this year, as of the morning of November 10, East Asia time, and the evening of the 9th US time.
House Republicans won a slim majority of 7 seats, 221:214, turning 9 seats, the weakest "red tide" in history (since 1974, the president's party has been flopped by an average of 23 seats in the midterm elections).
As for the key Senate, in Pennsylvania, which has attracted national attention, in the face of the vacancy left by the retirement of Republican senators, Democratic Lieutenant Governor Fetterman, who has suffered a stroke, still defeated Trump's medical adviser and Turkish Internet celebrity doctor Oz, who was airdropped.
Pennsylvania Senate race: Fetterman, Democrat (left), Republican Oz (right)
The exact results of the two western swing states are still pending, as mail-in ballots will not be processed until at least Friday (Saturday East Asia time).
Based on the votes currently drawn, Democratic Senator Kelly should be able to hold on to success in Arizona, defeating Republican challenger and venture banker Masters.
Nevada Senate race: Democratic Masto (left), Republican Laxalt (right)
In Nevada, Democratic Senator Masto was supposed to be losing to Republican challenger and more veteran political family Laxalt.
In Pennsylvania (Democrats grabbed Republicans) and Nevada (Republicans grabbed Democrats), the two sides went in and out, and finally tied the game.
Georgia Senate runoffs: Democratic Senator Warnock (left), Republican challenger Walker (right)
The Senate tied 50-49, leaving the key state of Georgia. A second round showdown between the two candidates on December 6 is needed to repeat a pivotal scene from two years ago.
If Republican challenger Walker loses and Democratic Senator Warnock is re-elected, the two sides will remain unchanged in the Senate at 50:50, and with a crucial vote from Vice President Harris, the Democrats will still be able to control the Senate.
The Democratic Party has basically resisted the "red tide". Fierce debates have erupted within the Republican camp, and Trump's life is not easy. As for the details and why, we will leave it for the next specific analysis.
But no matter who wins and loses the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, how much they win or lose, it is a fool's dream to expect that Ukraine will lose foreign aid and US-Russian relations will improve.
Many people expect that after the Republican Party seizes Congress, it will no longer support Ukraine, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine will be completely reversed. But the fact is that the aid bill signed by Biden this year has bipartisan support.
For example, the $40 billion in aid to Ukraine in May was passed 86:11 in the Senate and 368:57 in the House of Representatives, and most Republicans clearly supported aid to Ukraine, which is the consensus of mainstream political circles in the United States.
In September, Biden again announced the $12.3 billion aid package for Ukraine, when the situation in Ukraine had changed dramatically, but the bill still passed 72:25 in the Senate and 230:201 in the House of Representatives.
This time, House Republicans did defect on a large scale, but the reason was not that they did not want to aid Ukraine, but that inflation and fiscal deficits needed to control spending. And this reason is more to oppose the Democratic Party and manipulate the topic before the midterm elections.
The only people who really oppose aid to Ukraine are Trump's group of pro-Russian elements. But it was precisely this midterm election that the "Trump gang" suffered a big blow, and Florida Governor DeSantis became the biggest winner.
Moreover, it is fundamentally unrealistic to expect the US Congress to control US foreign policy, and it is even more unrealistic to expect the non-mainstream factions of the Republican Party to control the Republican Party and Congress.
Diplomacy and military affairs are the exclusive power of the White House. If a president has nothing to do in domestic affairs, he will have to play the diplomatic and military card, and there is no need to say in which direction he will exert force.
The United States will not give up this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to weaken its arch-rival Russia.
brief summary
So Russia has been busy for most of the year since February, and now it has a Zaporozhye region without Zaporozhye, and a Kherson region without Kherson.
There is also a much stronger Ukrainian army than in February, 2,000 km of hostile borders between Sweden and Finland that joined NATO, and unprecedented sanctions strangling isolation.
Russian supporters had to continue to chant clichés such as "It doesn't matter, a large number of effective forces of the Ukrainian army have been annihilated", "the Ukrainian army suffered heavy losses", "mobilized to the seventh round", "the Ukrainian army lost 400,000" and other clichés.
But it doesn't matter, war has always been materialistic, war reports will lie, the front will not. The development of the war situation is by no means diverted by the subjective wishes of a few outsiders.
Of course, it is still that question, for the Ukrainian side, if it wants to win this war, from "undefeated" to "victorious", off-the-market factors and the ability to tackle tough problems must also be studied. Leave it for later.