Recently, former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was assassinated in Wazirabad, Punjab province. The latest photos and videos posted on social media show Imran Khan being shot multiple times in the leg during the attack, and multiple bullets even pierced his leg bone, but the injuries were not serious. The attacker, who has now been arrested, said the attack was his personal act. It is reported that Imran Khan's Justice Movement Party of Pakistan recently launched the so-called "Justice Long March" 2.0 operation in Pakistan, that is, to hold long-distance protest marches to demand early elections, and the final destination of its "Justice Long March" is directly to the capital parliament building.
Local media in Pakistan believe that the assassination attempt will bring new variables to the domestic political situation in Pakistan. Since April 2022, the political situation in Pakistan has undergone significant changes. Then-Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was forced out of office in a no-confidence vote in parliament on April 10. Subsequently, the chairman of the Muslim Union Sharif, Shahbaz Sharif, was sworn in as the new Prime Minister of Pakistan.
The change of regime in Pakistan, on the surface, seems to be the former ruling party headed by the Justice Movement Party and the united opposition represented by the Mu Union Sharif faction and the People's Party, the contradiction continues to escalate and irreconcilable, but the deeper level is the concentrated refraction of Pakistan's social structure and changes in the balance of power, at present, more and more urban bottom people and small businessmen, as well as Pakistani youth high-profile support the Justice Movement Party, Pakistan's domestic political map is undergoing drastic changes. It is becoming increasingly difficult for traditional political forces to gain the support of the new generation of people.
During Imran's administration, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, economic mismanagement and the continuous cabinet reshuffle, Pakistan's domestic economic situation deteriorated sharply, foreign direct investment declined, foreign exchange reserves were in short supply, Pakistan's national currency, the rupee fell sharply against the US dollar, and inflation reached unprecedented heights.
It is no exaggeration to say that since the second half of 2021, Pakistan's economy has been on the verge of collapse, and the public debt caused by rising fiscal deficits and declining tax collection capacity, as well as economic weakness caused by declining manufacturing and its exports and low productivity, have been in Pakistan for a long time. Pakistan's economy is deteriorating, life is becoming increasingly difficult under high inflation, and some people at the bottom are gradually losing patience with Imran's populist government. With the help of the above factors, the Muslim Union easily seized the opportunity to launch a no-confidence motion against Imran, and finally forced the Pakistani National Assembly to pass a motion, and Imran was finally removed.
Since the founding of Pakistan, the democratically elected government and the military government have taken turns to govern, and Pakistan's political operation has shown an obvious "pendulum effect". Any Pakistani politician or political force who wants to gain a foothold in Pakistani politics must first establish close relations with the Pakistani military. However, Imran did the opposite, and the relationship between the JEM party and the military repeatedly "lit up red lights", especially at the end of his government, when there were serious differences between the military and senior officials of the Imran government, and the two sides turned against each other. As a result, Imran lacked military support in the face of impeachment from the opposition, and ultimately failed to escape the fate of stepping down.
Although Imran founded the Justice Movement Party of Pakistan and quickly rose to prominence as a major political force in Pakistan, its supporters came from Pakistan's working-class, urban middle class and young people, in stark contrast to other established family political forces. The JEM Party lacks the support of wealthy families and has no deep local roots, and the grassroots Imran has broken the traditional political competition pattern of Pakistan's "two powers for hegemony", but even if there is a "three-legged" situation in Pakistani politics, it is difficult to break the political tradition of the family's wealthy families.
However, Imran, who believes he has a strong mass base, is not only unwilling to lose, but also says he will take boycott action to force Congress to hold new elections. Imran recently launched the so-called "Long March for Justice" movement, starting from his hometown of Miyanwali, in an attempt to exert pressure through crowds and street demonstrations to demand a new election. In Imran's view, the current ruling multi-party coalition government has long been in danger, and the competition contradictions between the Muslim Union and the People's Party are "in the same bed" and "look at each other"; the contradictions between them are very prominent, and the outside world generally believes that Imran is fully capable of "returning" himself to the post of prime minister through mass movements.
Analysts believe that the assassination attempt has added high marks to the Imran camp, and the "Long March of Justice" has not only become famous in Pakistan, but Imran has played the "sadness card" by taking advantage of his injury, and it is entirely possible to win the new election. It should be particularly pointed out that it is difficult for successive prime ministers of Pakistan to complete their five-year terms, and it has become commonplace in Pakistan's political life for opposition parties to use means such as demonstrations and judicial recourse to oust the ruling party from power during their term of office, so as to redistribute political power in advance. It is foreseeable that the game within the new governing coalition, and between the ruling coalition and the JEM, is likely to continue for the remaining more than a year of the current cabinet.