Shortly after accepting the official appointment of King Charles III as the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Sunak received an invitation to an important international conference, but after some consideration, he decided not to go.
From November 6 to 18 local time, the 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) will be held in Egypt, with dignitaries from more than 200 countries attending. Among them, people will not see Sunak's figure.
10 Downing Street explained that Sunak would be absent from COP27 due to other pressing tasks in the UK and the preparation of the autumn budget. Other senior UK ministers and COP26 President Alok Sharma will be present to reaffirm the UK Government's full commitment to COP27.
However, Sunak's absence has still attracted criticism from many quarters. Opposition parties and environmentalists see the move as proof that Sunak's government is not paying enough attention to the climate crisis as a "major failure of its climate leadership." Sharma also expressed considerable disappointment with Sunak's decision not to go.
In addition to verbal criticism, there are also those who want to attack Sunak with practical actions. The British "Guardian" pointed out that former British Prime Minister Johnson is likely to attend COP27, and his participation is potentially "explosive", which can be seen as both criticism of Sunak's lack of climate work and political capital for himself.
The beginning of Sunak's administration can be described as "unfavorable".
The economy to be repaired
After being bombarded by opposition parties and environmentalists, 10 Downing Street began to relax.
On October 31, local time, 10 Downing Street said that if sufficient progress is made in the preparation of the autumn budget statement, Sunak may still attend COP27.
In his inaugural speech, Sunak called for "putting economic stability at the heart of the government's agenda." Perhaps in Sunak's view, Britain's economy, which needs to be repaired, is the first challenge he faces when he takes office, and other issues can temporarily make way for him.
More than a month ago, former British Prime Minister Truss launched a "mini budget" plan to cause panic in the financial market, and the United Kingdom suffered a "triple killing" of stocks and bonds. Although Chancellor Hunt, who was subsequently replaced, abolished almost all tax cuts, temporarily stabilizing the market. But analysts told Reuters that it will take some time for the market to completely shake off the political risk premium that has formed in recent weeks.
In addition, soaring energy prices and the highest inflation rate in 40 years are driving a cost-of-living crisis. "The country is getting poorer and the British people feel it." The BBC wrote.
October 24, 2022 local time, London, England, the new leader of the British Conservative Party, Sunak, appeared at the Conservative Party campaign headquarters. Photo/IC photo
According to the Office for National Statistics, between August and September 2022, 93% of UK adults reported an increase in the cost of living, with low-income households spending a higher than usual proportion on energy and food and therefore more affected by higher price increases.
The rising cost of living has not accompanied by rising wages, which has also made all walks of life more dissatisfied. The BBC notes that tens of thousands of workers have gone on strike since the beginning of this year, including dockers, criminal lawyers and doctors and teachers. If inflation is not addressed at its source, the UK may experience round after round of labor disputes.
Overall, the UK economy is at risk of recession. According to The Independent, economists warn that the British economy is expected to shrink by about 0.2% per quarter from October to June next year. A combination of high energy prices, soaring inflation, interest rate hikes by many central banks and a weakening global economy has also increased the likelihood that the UK economy will face a recession by mid-2023.
Faced with the current economic difficulties, Sunak and Hunt have to spend more time figuring out how to formulate the British government's fiscal statement. The release of the fiscal statement originally scheduled for October 31 local time has been postponed. Hunt said delaying the statement would help make tough decisions, and a short two-and-a-half-week delay was the best way to ensure officials made the right decision.
In fact, there are not many "cards" left for Sunak. Tian Dewen, an expert on European issues at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Beijing News reporter that to some extent, Truss had tried and made mistakes for him in advance. Sunak's current feasible approach is to cooperate with the Bank of England's "balance sheet reduction and interest rate hike" to curb inflation by moderating monetary contraction. On the financial front, he may increase the rationality of spending mainly by adjusting the structure, so that the middle and lower classes can ensure basic living in the face of severe inflation.
Relationships to be restarted
"The news that Sunak was elected as the new prime minister of the United Kingdom really breathed a sigh of relief for the European Union." The Financial Times wrote.
After more than 3 years of fierce tug-of-war and negotiations, the United Kingdom ended its EU membership in 2020 and became the first country to leave the EU, but the Northern Ireland border issue caused by "Brexit" has not been resolved, and the two sides have reached an impasse on the Northern Ireland Protocol, which has become a "headache" between the UK and the EU.
The Northern Ireland Protocol is part of the "Brexit" agreement, the main purpose of which is that after the UK "leaves", the UK and Northern Ireland will remain in the European single market and the EU customs union, and there will be no "hard border" with Ireland. But it also means that some goods entering Northern Ireland from the British Isle of Great Britain are subject to customs and border security checks.
According to the British side, this has caused a rift in Northern Ireland's trade with the rest of the UK. Therefore, the British side has been advocating changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol. The proposal also triggered the European Commission to initiate a judicial action against the UK government for breach of contract.
Both of Sunak's predecessors have been quite tough on the issue, and Truss has submitted a bill to Parliament unveiling specific plans to unilaterally amend parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Simon Lee, a senior lecturer in political science at the University of Hull, once told the Beijing News reporter that the British economy is about to fall into a deep recession, and the British national health service system will face a winter crisis. On this basis, if legislation continues to be pushed to amend some of the provisions of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the UK will have major conflicts with the EU, and serious social unrest may occur in the UK.
On December 9, 2020, local time, Brussels, Belgium, then British Prime Minister Johnson met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to promote the resolution of the deadlock in negotiations on future relations between Britain and the EU. Photo/IC photo
Sunak's rise to power may provide an opportunity to restart relations between the UK and the EU. The US political news website "Politico" pointed out that Sunak was an early supporter of Brexit, but he has always emphasized pragmatism and is believed to play a role in easing the contradictions between Britain and the European Union.
At present, there are some signs of alleviating contradictions. After becoming prime minister, Sunak held a series of telephone talks with US President Joe Biden and European Commission President von der Leyen. Referring to the legacy of Brexit in Northern Ireland in both conversations, Sunak reiterated to von der Leyen his commitment to a negotiated solution to the current problems.
Georg Riekels, a researcher at the Center for European Policy, a think tank, told Reuters that the EU had long expressed a readiness to compromise, but was met with cold eyes from hardliners Johnson and Truss. Now that the opportunity to restart [relations] clearly exists, and the situation is difficult across Europe, Sunak will have many reasons to work constructively with the EU.
Political parties to be bridged
After being elected leader of the Conservative Party, Sunak did not rush to speak to the public, but first held a "closed-door meeting" for Conservative MPs.
Simon Hall, a Conservative MP who attended the meeting, told Bloomberg that Sunak highlighted the issue of divisions within the party in his speech, pointing out that the Conservative party faces an "existential threat" and needs to unite immediately.
Sunak is the third British prime minister the Conservatives have been replaced in more than three months and the fifth in six years. The BBC pointed out that this is the fastest period of change in the British leadership, and 10 Downing Street is like a "revolving door". This has not always been the case in British politics, and there have been only three changes of leadership in the past 30 years.
In the final analysis, the factors that caused instability in the British political situation or within the Conservative Party may go back to a "Brexit" referendum six years ago. Jill Rutter, a researcher at the Institute of Government Studies in the UK, said the 2016 Brexit referendum could be seen as the number one destabilizing factor in British politics over the past six years.
Hart added that former British Prime Minister David Cameron's call for elections but not all-out for victory led to things starting to derail. May then succeeded, but she faced a disastrous election in 2017 and could not agree on a "Brexit" in her party, so she had to step down. Johnson broke the Brexit deadlock with his unconventional style, but it was precisely because of his disregard for the rules that he finally resigned due to a series of scandals.
Leadership changes hit the Conservative Party again and again. Cui Hongjian, director of the Institute of European Studies of the China Institute of International Studies, told the Beijing News reporter that the Conservative Party has been in power for 12 consecutive years, but it has been resolving internal contradictions in the party through an abnormal transfer of power, but every time the Conservative Party holds an intra-party election, it will cause division within the party.
"Sunak is taking over a Conservative Party in free fall, and it's unclear if Sunak can find a parachute." Matthew Goodwin, a professor of political science at the University of Kent, told The New York Times.
On October 26, 2022 local time, London, England, the new British Prime Minister Sunak attended the parliamentary prime minister's question for the first time. Photo/IC photo
Sunak, who promised to unite the Conservative Party, took the first step or build a cabinet full of "acquaintances". According to the list of new cabinet members, Hunt remained as Chancellor of the Exchequer, Ben Wallace remained as Secretary of State for Defence and James Cliveley remained as Foreign Secretary. In addition, Dominic Raab, who worked as acting prime minister after Johnson's diagnosis of new crown pneumonia, became deputy prime minister and justice minister, and Home Secretary Sula Braverman, who recently resigned, took up this position again.
By contrast, Truss's cabinet is almost exclusively her personal supporters. The New York Times noted that the cabinet appointment seemed to indicate that Sunak had realized that drawing a line within the party would not succeed.
In a way, this is also a helpless move. Tian Dewen said that after some toss-up by the Conservative Party, there are only members of parliament with rich government experience. In the past three months, two rounds of "reversion" have also caused the contradictions within the Conservative Party to be relatively fierce, and Sunak needs to ease the contradictions at this time, and this appointment choice is also more pragmatic.
In addition to bridging divisions within the party, Sunak will need to find a way to win back voters. From Truss to Sunak, the British public has failed to have a say in the choice of leaders. The chaos caused by the Conservative Party in British politics has also caused its poll approval to plummet.
Before Sunak came to power, the opposition Labour Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Scottish National Party called for an immediate general election. The UK's 650 members of the House of Commons are serving five-year terms, and the current parliament meets for the first time on 17 December 2019, and the next general election will not be held until January 2025 at the latest unless there are early elections.
However, given the current situation, it is unlikely that an early general election will be held in the short term. Tian Dewen said that an early general election needs to be passed by parliament, and the Conservative Party still has the upper hand in parliament, as long as there is no split within the Conservative Party, there is no possibility of an early election. This, in turn, underscores the importance of Sunak maintaining unity within the party.
Speaking of the next general election in the United Kingdom, Tian Dewen pointed out that the main reason for the high support of the Labour Party today is that the Conservative Party is not doing well. Labour has not been in power for many years, and Labour leader Keir Starmer has failed to come up with a formal, alternative solution. If the Conservative Party achieves something in these two years and salvages public opinion, the outcome of the general election will still be difficult to say.
Beijing News reporter Luan Ruoxi
Editor Zhang Lei Proofreading Chen Diyan