Source: China News Network
American B-52 long-range bombers, British F-15 fighters coming across the ocean... From October 17 to 30 local time, about 60 planes from 14 NATO member countries will whizz over Belgium, Britain and the North Sea.
Despite Russia's strong opposition, NATO launched a nuclear deterrence exercise codenamed "Firm Noon". During this period, the Russian side also informed the United States to hold a strategic deterrent force exercise, which was the same time as NATO.
Not only that, the Pentagon recently released three important reports, sending more dangerous signals...
NATO vs Russia
Who blinks first?
Previously, NATO claimed that the "firm noon" exercise did not involve live ammunition and was designed to ensure the safety, reliability and effectiveness of NATO's nuclear deterrent forces. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that continuing to strengthen the NATO alliance is "the best strategy to avoid escalation."
However, the exercise, which included the deployment of nuclear weapons and the response to nuclear attacks, was highly combat-oriented.
Among NATO members, the United States, the United Kingdom and France possess nuclear weapons; Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium have deployed B61 nuclear aerial bombs, and according to NATO's "nuclear sharing" principle, fighters of all countries can carry nuclear warheads, which is one of the highlights of this "big show." The US B-52 long-range bomber rarely appeared in Europe far away, which is also quite eye-catching.
As always, Russia has expressed strong opposition to NATO exercises. Subsequently, the Russian side informed the United States that it would hold regular annual military exercises, including strategic deterrence force exercises.
On February 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin personally supervised a strategic deterrence exercise, when the Russian military sacrificed a "heavy weapon" and launched the "Zircon" hypersonic cruise missile that could not be intercepted by anti-missile or air defense systems.
Nine months later, Putin once again sat in command of Russia's strategic deterrence exercises. He observed the Russian rocket forces launching the "Yars" land-based intercontinental missile and the "Blue Sky" submarine-launched ballistic missile with live ammunition, and observed the Russian military Tu-95 strategic bomber launching cruise missiles in the air.
Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations of the Foreign Affairs University, told China News Network that these two "collision" nuclear deterrence exercises reflect that Russia, the United States and NATO have little room for compromise in the Ukraine crisis.
Based on the tragic assumption that the Ukrainian crisis is escalating step by step and may even get out of control, Russia and the United States are-for-tat on any issue involving the security of Ukraine and Europe. Li Haidong believes that the two sides are playing a typical game of "who blinks first", so that no one wants to "blink first", which will lead to an increase in the possibility of conflict between Russia and the United States, and between Russia and NATO.
Europe is like pins and needles
Will ripple over the next decade?
Europe has become an important region for major powers to carry out nuclear exercises - Li Haidong pointed out that if the crisis in Ukraine continues to worsen, the possibility of extending to the heart of Europe will increase. This reflects Europe's powerlessness and helplessness when it comes to its own security, as well as its submission to the United States, and the European security situation will become more complicated.
How long is this likely to continue?
On October 27, local time, when attending the meeting of the Valdai International Debate Club of the Russian think tank in Moscow, Putin gave a general answer.
In his three-and-a-half-hour speech, Putin fully expounded his views. He predicted that the world would face perhaps the most dangerous, unpredictable, and important decade since the end of World War II.
Putin believes that the United States wants to create a unipolar world, and the era of Western dominance of international affairs "is becoming a thing of the past." The West needs to talk to the rising centers of power, and a multipolar world will be the only real and effective opportunity, especially for a politically and economically traumatized Europe.
Over there, the Biden administration's first national security strategy report recently released and NATO's NATO 2022 Strategic Concept released earlier also mentioned that the next decade will be a "decisive decade."
The Biden administration believes that "exceeding China to contain Russia", winning allies, and cultivating "internal strength" are the key and priority tasks of the United States in the next decade. NATO, for its part, has set up three major tasks: deterrence and defense, crisis prevention and management, and cooperative security, and regards Russia as the "biggest and most direct threat" to Europe.
Biden also said recently that the "nuclear threat" caused by the situation in Ukraine has reached the "most serious level" since the Cuban missile crisis.
Li Haidong analyzed that both Russian and American leaders believe that the future situation is even less optimistic, based on the observation of how to protect their core interests in Europe. Europe's current security landscape is dangerous, and it is becoming increasingly unclear what future it faces.
Historically, conflicts in Europe, once out of control, have tended to spill over to the rest of the world and become global events. Li Haidong stressed that the United States coerces its allies and partners by creating panic in Europe, which is unfavorable to the overall security of Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, and even the world, and is something that all countries must resist.
The United States is frequently provoked
The "magic box" of nuclear deterrence opens?
In fact, recently, the United States has accelerated the push of nuclear bombs to Europe with one hand, and threw out three highly targeted heavyweight reports with the other: the "National Defense Strategy," the "Nuclear Posture Review," and the "Missile Defense Assessment Report," intensifying its efforts to "provoke fire."
The B61-12 — America's "most expensive and dangerous" tactical bomb — is being deployed to Europe at an accelerated pace. The US "Politics" website previously revealed that the B61-12 improved nuclear bomb, originally planned to be delivered to NATO bases in Europe in the spring of 2023, may be on the road as soon as December 2022.
According to the National Nuclear Security Administration, the upgraded B61-12 nuclear bomb has improved accuracy, extended ammunition life by at least 20 years, and can be used on multiple aviation platforms now and in the future.
It is worth noting that China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs pointed out on October 28 that as a country with the largest nuclear arsenal, the United States has increasingly become a source of risk of nuclear conflict by exaggerating the nuclear threat of specific countries, tailoring a nuclear deterrence strategy for it, and selectively promoting the international nuclear arms control agenda to suppress opponents.
In the Nuclear Posture Review, the United States strengthens the role of nuclear weapons in its national security policy, vigorously develops and seeks forward deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, lowers the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, and reflects its hegemonic logic of seeking absolute military superiority, which will stimulate the nuclear arms race.
When the United States repeatedly played up Russia's possible use of "tactical nuclear weapons" in Ukraine, Li Haidong asked rhetorically, "Won't everyone think about how the nuclear weapons in the hands of the United States will be used?" ”
He further noted that nuclear deterrence was an important means of national security protection, based on the assessment of predictable disasters with very serious consequences and the use of nuclear weapons only for defense. If one side takes a laissez-faire attitude towards nuclear weapons and possible nuclear attacks, or even is happy to see them succeed, nuclear attacks between them may eventually occur.
However, this has not happened before in human history.
After the cold war, nuclear deterrence was established among the nuclear Powers, thus creating the prevailing notion that nuclear war was unlikely. However, Li Haidong observed that with the development of the Ukrainian crisis, the international situation has undergone new changes, and the function of nuclear deterrence is declining as an effective tool in handling relations between major powers and shaping international security.
The traditional thinking of ensuring the overall stability of relations between major powers and ensuring their own security through a "balance of terror" is increasingly stretched in the new situation, which is why the conflict in Europe is extremely disastrous.
US and Western politicians and media use the method of inducing and exaggerating the use of nuclear weapons by other parties as an excuse for the United States and NATO to strengthen their nuclear capabilities in Europe, and then blackmail or apply superior nuclear capabilities in future conflicts. This approach undermines international security even more, Li Haidong concluded.