[Text/Observer Network Wang Hui, Liu Qian, Zhang Jingjuan Editor/Feng Xue] On the 25th local time, Sunak, who has just been elected as the leader of the British Conservative Party, accepted the formal appointment of King Charles III of the United Kingdom and became the new prime minister of the United Kingdom.
In just 7 weeks, 10 Downing Street has changed three owners. What the hell is wrong with Britain? Will Sunak be able to turn the tide and take Britain through the crisis?
He has too many eye-catching labels: the first non-white prime minister in British history, the first Indian prime minister, the first post-80s prime minister, the youngest British prime minister in more than 200 years, and the first prime minister richer than the king. At the same time, he was a former "betrayer" in Johnson's administration and the loser in the Conservative leadership election a month ago.
However, "the loser in September became the winner in October," said Mason, BBC political news editor, on the 24th.
Why did Sunak succeed in "picking up leaks"?
On October 25, 2022 local time, Sunak delivered an inaugural speech Source: The Paper Image
"There really is no one in the Conservative Party"
After Truss's resignation, Sunak, Johnson and House of Commons Conservative leader Mordaunt all participated in the new round of the Conservative Party's leadership campaign, and a series of canvassing operations were carried out in just a few days.
In the end, with Johnson and Mordaunt withdrawing from the race, according to the rules, Sunak was automatically elected leader of the Conservative Party and became the prime minister of the United Kingdom.
"This is the most desirable result for the Conservative Party, with only 1 candidate meeting the requirements at the nomination stage." Yin Zhiguang, a professor of international politics at Fudan University's School of International Relations and Public Affairs, said that in this way, there is no need to vote for all party members, which takes the least time and avoids too much humiliation.
Yin believes that the right to nominate is in the hands of Conservative backbenchers, so the withdrawal of Johnson and Mordaunt is actually the choice of these MPs.
"Although Johnson has some die-hard supporters in the party, it is not good for the Conservative Party to put him in power again, and he can't hold on to his face, and Mordaunt is less likely to be selected because of his lack of government experience."
Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, also said that Sunak's rise to power was the result of repeated weighing by the Conservative Party. The Conservatives now realise that they must elect an official with a technocratic background to take responsibility and solve problems, or risk falling into intra-party strife and factional balance.
"That's why Johnson and Mordaunt seemed to be obstacles to Sunak, but ultimately didn't succeed," Mr. Cui said, choosing Johnson or Mordaunt seemed more in line with Conservative tradition, but their support for solving the problem was less high.
In other words, Sunak is now playing the role of a "firefighter" for the Conservative government.
"He doesn't have deep political roots, but his professional background and some experience as Chancellor of the Exchequer have helped him win a majority of the Conservative elite." Cui Hongjian analyzed.
The British "Sun" revealed on the 22nd that Johnson secretly met with Sunak that night to try to reach an agreement on "who will be the prime minister".
However, winning a majority of the Conservative elite's support does not mean overwhelming support from the basic members of the Conservative Party or even from the British public at large.
This is why Sunak lost the election in September. At the time, he led the way in the Conservative internal primary, but lost to Truss in the final general election for basic members of the Conservative Party.
The October "rebound" election, which was limited to the Conservative elite due to the withdrawal of the other two candidates, was largely a boon for Sunak.
Cui Hongjian said: "This situation also shows that there is a big difference in understanding between the elite of the Conservative Party and the basic members. ”
"Sunak was not elected in September to be predictable." Yin Zhiguang analyzed: First of all, his political experience is not very rich, and his political foundation is not very deep. In 2015, he was first elected to parliament, entered British politics, was promoted to Chancellor of the Exchequer by former Prime Minister Johnson in 2020, and was elected Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2022, which took only 7 years.
Second, Sunak is a minority, and there has always been a strong institutional racism within the Conservative Party, and if given the alternative, they would not give preference to a minority as its leader.
"His success in October shows that the Conservative Party is really gone, and Sunak is the last resort," Yin said, arguing that Truss's resignation is a "public relations crisis" for the Conservative Party, and that a candidate for a minority in power is still good for storytelling and saving reputation.
However, can such a Sunak save Britain?
Radio London (LBC) reported on the 22nd that Conservative Party member Jerry called the host Miska and said that Sunak was "not even British" in the eyes of everyone.
"Ensuring that the Conservative Party does not change the prime minister before the 2024 general election is his greatest success"
Today, what Truss has lost to Sunak is a Britain that is in trouble at home and abroad, and worries at home and abroad.
High inflation, a sluggish economy, an energy crisis, a cost-of-living crisis, strikes and street movements demanding wage increases are one after another. At the same time, the international Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues, the UK-EU lawsuits continue after "Brexit", and the two sides are entangled on the issue of Northern Ireland...
After the results of Sunak's victory, the market reacted more positively on the day, with the pound rising slightly by 0.15% against the dollar.
"Everyone thinks that compared with Truss, Sunak has expertise and his own policy propositions," Cui Hongjian said, and the next step is to see if Sunak can translate the current market expectations and confidence in him into tangible results through policies.
Cui Hongjian believes that the UK will be relatively stable in the short term, because Sunak has previously had some favorable content in economic policy propositions. However, the UK now faces many structural problems, and there are some import factors that cannot be solved by a policy of the Sunak government.
He explained that after Brexit, the British "Brexit" was already in a period of economic disorder, and in this process, the Conservative government did not introduce a complete set of structural reforms. Coupled with immediate problems such as the epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the British government has been in a state of crisis management since the Johnson era. In addition, there are many factors that the British government cannot influence, including imported inflation caused by the Ukraine crisis.
These are the real problems that Sunak will face when he takes office. He may have his own ideas and make some policy adjustments to solve Britain's long-term accumulation problem, but this is not an easy task, and the Sunak government may not do much. ”
Yin Zhiguang also believes that Sunak, who took over the temporary takeover, does not have a mature plan to get Britain out of the crisis, "or no one has such a plan now." ”
"When Sunak was finance minister, his so-called solution to the crisis was to borrow and send money, in effect postponing the crisis until the next government. Now that he is prime minister himself, and wants to lead the Conservatives to win elections in 2024, it is impossible to solve the problem by borrowing alone. ”
On October 25, 2022 local time, Royal Mail workers began a general strike on the same day, demanding higher wages and improved working conditions in a high-inflation environment Source: The Paper Image
Sunak warned in his speech on the 24th that Britain is facing a "deep" economic crisis, and uniting the country is his "top priority".
The so-called "unity of the country is his 'primary task'" is not a political program, but a cliché, and it is addressed to the opposition parties. Meaning, now that the election campaign is over, we need to put aside the hostility that has accumulated before and work together for this current government.
"Having said that, political conflict and tension still exist objectively," Yin said, adding that Sunak has a "very low probability" of uniting Britain and bringing Britain out of the predicament. "It would be the biggest success for him to be able to secure his position and ensure that the Conservatives do not change prime ministers before the 2024 general election."
From Johnson to Truss to Sunak, the Conservative prime minister's goals have fallen again and again.
"After Johnson won the election in 2019, he had the ambition not only to govern until the next election, but also to lead the Conservative Party to win the election again. By the time of Truss, the credibility of the Conservative government was damaged, and Truss's goal was to hold out until the next general election. After Truss's ouster, the Conservative Party's credibility was further damaged, and it became more difficult to achieve this goal. Cui Hongjian said that ruling until the next general election used to be the lowest goal of the Conservative Party, but it has become the highest goal in Sunak.
He believes that to accomplish this goal, Sunak must succeed in doing two things:
First, unite with the Conservative Party and try to bridge the divisions within the Conservative Party caused by the two party elections; Second, to come up with a set of effective policies, especially economic policies, as soon as possible, in order to restore the reputation of the Conservative Party among the basic members of the Conservative Party and the British people.
The emergence of an Indian-born prime minister in Britain is not accidental, and Indians should not be too excited
Sunak's appointment as British prime minister made Indians very happy.
His election coincided with India's Diwali festival, India's 75th anniversary of its liberation from British colonial rule and its becoming a sovereign nation. Indian Prime Minister Modi also sent his blessings on Twitter for the first time:
"Congratulations to Rishi Sunak! As you become Prime Minister, I look forward to working closely with you on global issues to implement the Roadmap 2030. Special Diwali (Indian religious holiday) wishes to Indians in the UK as we transform a historic relationship into a modern partnership. ”
Screenshot of Modi's tweet
There was an interesting scene on social media, Britain had elected a prime minister, but the most excited were Indians.
"This kind of nationalist reaction in India is very normal, and they were also very hi when Harris became vice president of the United States before," Yin Zhiguang said, the mood of Indian nationalism is upward-looking, once you are developed, the "whole village" is happy for you, if something goes wrong, it is the shame of the "whole village", which is a very pure nationalist sentiment.
Cui Hongjian pointed out that the birth of the Indian-British prime minister reflects the current demographic changes in the United Kingdom.
"The UK has long been a 'net country of immigration', receiving immigrants from all ethnic groups, with the Indian community being the largest minority in the UK. The increasing diversity of British society and population is also reflected in politics, and it can be seen that the participation of ethnic minorities in politics in the United Kingdom has increased in recent years. ”
Cui Hongjian mentioned that the current mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, comes from a Pakistani immigrant family with a Muslim background, and he also brought a lot of impact to British politics when he took office. At the same time, these immigrants who entered the UK, especially those of Indian origin, now occupy increasingly important positions in the British elite.
Therefore, the emergence of Sunak, the Indian prime minister, is not an accident, because Indian immigrants or descendants of immigrants have entered the British government and served as high officials, which has a certain basis. In addition, there are many Indian immigrants in the British business community, and they are also doing well. Of course, this is also because the UK has relatively good educational resources, which are special in English-speaking countries and Commonwealth countries. ”
Sunak's election also shows that "although the Conservative Party now has a conservative name and a strong tradition of 'white supremacy' within the party, the Conservative Party may also have to abandon some so-called 'traditional ideas' in the face of changes in British society and demographics, and in the face of having to introduce professional people to solve problems." Cui Hongjian added.
He argues that there is no need to exaggerate Sunak's Indian identity and background, because in addition to his ancestry and family pedigree dating back to India, Sunak's own education, including his upbringing, came from the West. So Sunak's intellectual structure and ideological concepts are British, or Anglo-Americanized.
In 2020, Sunak was photographed by the BBC lighting candles outside the official residence at 11 Downing Street to celebrate Diwali.
For Sunak himself, as the leader of the Conservative Party and the prime minister of the British government, he first values the interests of the Conservative Party and the British government.
"It cannot be ruled out that after he comes to power, he may enhance the pride of the Indian community in the short term through some kind of connection with India, and even the pride of Indians, and may use his origin and background to strengthen the relationship between Britain and India," Cui Hongjian stressed, but these will not solve the problem of ethnic inequality that still exists in the UK.
"Despite some success in the UK, the Indian community continues to suffer injustice in British society as part of the Asian community as a whole. The level of political participation and education of Asian communities in the UK will not be directly improved in the short term. ”
As for the Anglo-Indian relationship under Sunak, Yin Zhiguang believes that "there may be a honeymoon period."
"If Sunak wants to develop the economy and bring Britain out of its predicament, there must be an alternative plan," Yin said, adding that he is likely to use his identity to strengthen ties with India and let India transfuse the British economy through FDI.
"But that's just a drop in the bucket. FDI can stimulate the stock and bond markets, make the pound strengthen slightly, and cannot solve the essential problems of employment and rising living costs for the British people. ”
Cui Hongjian believes that when dealing with India, Britain will still cooperate when it should cooperate, and the game will be a game. "If Sunak were a mature politician, he would not allow his relatively special background and background to influence his decision-making and governance."
When Sunak comes to power, the United States will breathe a little easier
On the day of Sunak's victory (24th), US President Biden responded that his role as the first Indian prime minister of the United Kingdom was "groundbreaking".
On the evening of the 25th, the two talked on the phone. Biden began by congratulating Sunak on his inauguration and looking forward to working closely with him. The two sides concluded by saying they look forward to meeting at the upcoming G20 summit.
Cui Hongjian said that Biden's emphasis on Sunak's Indian background reflects the Democratic Party's consistent so-called "pluralistic" and "liberal" values.
Secondly, he believes that Sunak's rise to power should make the United States a little relieved compared to Truss.
"The economic ties between Britain and the United States are very deep, and British economic policies will affect the United States to a certain extent. After Truss introduced the tax cut policy before, Americans were very concerned because it would affect American investment and industry through the market. If Sunak adopts a relatively prudent economic policy in the future, it will make Americans more reassured. ”
Due to Sunak's own financial and economic background, Cui Hongjian believes that he may pay more attention to the economic and trade relationship between Britain and the United States, that is, the free trade negotiations between the two countries that have dragged on for a while.
"Previously, the United States attached many political conditions to the Anglo-US free trade negotiations, including the Northern Ireland issue. If Sunak stays true to his financial background, he may show more flexibility on issues such as Northern Ireland, which could help him get a more favorable position in dealing with Anglo-US relations, especially the Anglo-US Free Trade Agreement. ”
Yin Zhiguang said that whether it is Truss or Sunak who comes to power, the Anglo-American alliance is the main diplomatic grasp of the United Kingdom, which is the top priority, and this will not change.
Screenshot of Reuters report
"Sunak should learn more from his predecessors and view Sino-British relations rationally and pragmatically"
In terms of relations with China, Sunak has previously publicly called on the British government to develop a "mature and balanced relationship" with China.
Efforts to promote the resumption of the UK-China Economic Dialogue.
However, in the battle for succession triggered by Johnson's resignation in July, Sunak, who is a laggard in the polls, escalated his rhetoric on China. In a statement, he declared that "China is the number one long-term threat to the United Kingdom and the world economy and national security" and threatened to change the attitude of British and Western politicians towards China "on the first day of becoming prime minister."
In this regard, Yin Zhiguang said that if you want to solve the problem of British economic development after Brexit, you must find other alternatives. During the Johnson era, Sino-British relations were very important, and China was seen as an important European alternative. "But after the pressure of the United States, the Johnson government's attitude towards China has become very strong, and the rhetoric of 'replacing Europe with China' has basically disappeared, and Sunak is basically continuing this old trajectory, which is not surprising."
Before entering politics in 2015, Sunak worked as an analyst at Goldman Sachs and as a partner in a hedge fund. This experience may have given him a different perspective and approach to conflict than a professional politician.
On October 25, local time, Sunak accepted the official appointment of King Charles III of the United Kingdom at Buckingham Palace and became the new prime minister of the United Kingdom. Source: The Paper
Cui Hongjian believes that from Sunak's own background, background and experience, he should pay more attention to economic and trade cooperation with China.
"In this regard, China and the UK have had relatively good experience. At that time, Cameron's chancellor Osborne promoted economic and trade cooperation with China. Sunak can learn from his predecessors in this regard and view relations with China more from the perspective of pragmatic cooperation. ”
As for Sunak's previous turns in the election, Cui Hongjian pointed out that this actually reflects that there is still a process of fierce debate on China policy in the United Kingdom, especially within the Conservative Party.
"On the one hand, we must insist on cooperation with China in economic and trade, and on the other hand, the so-called political and security concerns are rising, how to find a balance between the two? I think it's a test for Sunak. ”
"Of course, we hope that he will be more faithful to his professional background and look at China-UK relations more from a rational and pragmatic perspective," Cui Hongjian said, arguing that only in this way can Sunak help the UK find a stable partner in the situation of internal and external turmoil and help the UK get out of the current economic and social difficulties as soon as possible.
(Fang Youyi and Wang Meng also contributed to this article)
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