Text / Zhao Minghao
The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China demonstrated a remarkable policy continuity. Xi Jinping continues to serve as the party's top leader, and a series of iconic concepts he has put forward, such as "Chinese-style modernization", "high-quality development", "common prosperity" and "a community with a shared future for mankind", have become the keywords of the 20th Party Congress. Washington has seen China in the new era as America's most important competitor. On the eve of the 20th Party Congress, the Biden administration released the National Security Strategy Report, declaring that China is the only adversary with both the will and ability to reshape the international order. This means that the U.S. competitive strategy against China will become stronger in the coming years.
The leaders of the CPC have a sober understanding of this. General Secretary Xi Jinping said in the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China that he is "ready to withstand the major test of high winds and stormy seas." Under the combined effect of multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, high inflation, energy and food crises, the global economic situation is becoming increasingly critical, and the external environment for China's development will become more severe. At the same time, China also needs to deal with many difficult challenges such as youth employment, aging, income inequality, and ecological protection. In the CCP's view, this is all the more necessary to maintain domestic political stability. The report of the 20th CPC National Congress clearly emphasized the importance of political security.
Obviously, the United States is promoting a managed "decoupling" from China in the economic, scientific and technological fields. The unprecedented new move released by the Biden administration on October 7 is seen as an attempt to completely block China's progress in the chip industry and supercomputing.
US President Joe Biden signed the Chip and Science Act this year (Source: IC Photo)
Against this backdrop, Beijing is rethinking how it ensures economic security. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed the establishment of a "modern industrial system" and emphasized the need to enhance the "reliability" of internal circulation.
CCP leaders have also paid more attention to scientific and technological issues. General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed in the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China: "Adhere to the core position of innovation in the overall situation of mainland modernization, and improve the new national system." The Biden administration's National Security Strategy also identifies technology as the primary area of U.S.-China competition. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently visited Silicon Valley to mobilize U.S. technology companies to participate more actively in "technology diplomacy" against China.
In terms of foreign policy, the report of the 20th Party Congress reflects that China will be more aggressive in shaping its external environment. General Secretary Xi Jinping said that in the future, we will continue to "take a clear stand against all hegemonism and power politics, and unswervingly oppose any unilateralism, protectionism and bullying." These words seem to indicate that China will stand firm in its response to provocation and pressure from the United States. The report of the 20 th CPC National Congress established "persisting in daring to struggle and being good at struggle" as a principle. A growing number of Chinese political elites tend to believe that even with compromises and concessions, the United States will not change its strategic intent to thwart China's rise.
In the coming years, the contest of strength between China and the United States on the Taiwan issue will become more intense. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China basically continued the CCP's previous policy on the Taiwan issue, saying: "We insist on striving for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and with the greatest efforts, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force and reserve the option of taking all necessary measures." At the same time, General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed that the "force" option is aimed at the interference of external forces and a very small number of "Taiwan independence" separatists and their separatist activities, and is by no means aimed at the vast number of Taiwan compatriots.
The United States over-hyped the Chinese mainland's timetable for "armed unification" is an extremely dangerous tactic. During the 20th Party Congress, Blinken claimed that China was "greatly accelerating" its plans to unify Taiwan, and Admiral Michael Gilday, the chief of naval operations, warned at a meeting of the Atlantic Council that the mainland might even begin operations next year. The Biden administration hopes to use these almost unfounded speculations to push allies to reorganize their armies and provide a political deterrent to Chinese mainland. But it is likely to lead to an undesired consequence – a military confrontation between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait.
In Beijing, more and more people are worried that the United States intends to copy the drama of provoking the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, hype up the possibility of war, and create a self-fulfilling prophecy to pull China into a "black hole of war". If the United States adopts a series of major provocative measures proposed in the Taiwan Policy Act, Chinese mainland will not sit idly by, and Beijing insists that the Taiwan issue is the most sensitive issue in Sino-US relations.
Despite the above-mentioned strategic risks and challenges, the CCP leadership has shown confidence and stressed China's commitment to promoting world peace and development. It is in the long-term interest of both sides to meet face-to-face on the sidelines of the G20 summit next month to find a path of "peaceful coexistence" amid huge differences and fierce competition.
The worst tragedy of our time will be war between the world's two largest powers, and the world expects China and the United States to share wisdom to avoid such an apocalypse.
Original:
More than anything else, the message from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was one of continuity. Xi Jinping continues to serve as the party’s top leader, and his signature concepts such as “Chinese modernisation”, “high-quality development”, “common prosperity” and “community with a shared future” remain prominent in the 20th national congress report.
Washington has already cast Xi’s China as the most serious geopolitical challenge the United States is facing. The Biden administration’s latest national security strategy, released on the eve of the 20th congress, asserts that China is the only competitor with the intent and ability to reshape the international order. This means America’s competitive strategy vis-à-vis China will only increase in scope and intensity.
Beijing is fully aware of this. In his report to the 20th national congress, Xi said that China must be “be ready to withstand high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms”. Given rising geopolitical conflict, high inflation and energy and food crises around the world, the global economic situation is becoming incredibly grim, and China is not immune.
At the same time, China also has to deal with daunting challenges at home, such as youth unemployment, an ageing population, income inequality and ecological sustainability. In the CPC’s view, these adverse factors are exactly why domestic political stability is needed, to weather the coming storms; this point was repeatedly hammered home in the 20th national congress report.
It is at this juncture that America is attempting a managed economic and technological “decoupling” from China. In particular, the Biden administration issued unprecedented chip export controls on October 7, which were widely seen as an attempt to halt China’s progress in chip manufacturing and other advanced electronic industries.
China will resolutely respond to pressure from the United States (Author's photo)
In light of such developments, Beijing is reconsidering how to safeguard economic security. The 20th national congress report calls for the modernisation of the industrial system and emphasises the need to enhance the reliability of the domestic economy.
The party is also focusing more on technology. In his report to the national congress, Xi stated that “innovation will remain at the heart of China’s modernisation drive”, and proposed an improved “new system for mobilising resources nationwide to make key technological breakthroughs”.
The Biden administration also views technology as a primary area of competition between the US and China. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently visited Silicon Valley to highlight the importance of “technology diplomacy”.
On the foreign policy front, the national congress report indicates that China will continue to be more active in shaping its external environment. Xi said that China has “taken a clear-cut stance against hegemonism and power politics in all their forms, and we have never wavered in our opposition to unilateralism, protectionism, and bullying of any kind”.
These words mean that China will firmly respond to pressure from the US, which it perceives to be manifestations of the aforementioned “hegemonism”, “unilateralism” and “bullying”. The congress report also said that China would adhere to principles including harnessing its “fighting spirit”.
A growing number of Chinese political elites have reached the conclusion that even if China makes compromises and concessions, the US will not change its strategic intent to contain or even reverse China’s rise.
In the coming years, Taiwan in particular is likely to emerge as a key flashpoint in this competition. The 20th national congress report mostly maintains the party’s policy on Taiwan, stating that China will “continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary”.
At the same time, Xi emphasised that such an option is aimed “solely at interference by outside forces and the few separatists seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ and their separatist activities”, and not at most people in Taiwan.
The US playing up China’s supposed timetable for armed reunification is an extremely dangerous tactic. In the week of the national congress in Beijing, Blinken said in Silicon Valley that China was accelerating its plans to reunify Taiwan, while Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of US naval operations, warned at the Atlantic Council that China could make a move as soon as this year.
The Biden administration may be hoping that such unsubstantiated speculation would push America’s allies to prepare for war, thus serving as a political deterrent to China. But it could increase the chances of inadvertent consequences that neither side wants, such as armed US-China conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
There is growing concern in Beijing that the US is intent on replicating the playbook of the Russia-Ukraine conflict: hyping up the possibility of war, and creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that pulls China into the black hole of war. If the US takes a series of provocative steps as outlined in the Taiwan Policy Act, China will not sit idly by, as Beijing considers the issue of Taiwan to be the most sensitive one in US-China relations.
Even faced with these strategic risks and challenges, the Communist Party leadership has demonstrated its confidence in the future, and emphasised China’s commitment to world peace and development.
It is in the long-term interest of both sides that the Chinese and US heads of state meet face to face, possibly on the sidelines of the G20 summit next month, to find a path towards peaceful coexistence, amid deep differences and fierce competition.
The greatest tragedy of our age would be a war between the world’s two largest powers, for they are expected to have the collective wisdom to avoid such an Armageddon.
Zhao Minghao is a professor at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University, and a China Forum Expert
This Article was first published on South China Morning Post on Oct. 25, 2022.
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