First, the US finance was "slapped in the face", "three highs and one low" did not retreat, and more than 90 lawmakers were suspected of insider trading!
The United States is a financial empire, and its financial assets are mainly concentrated in financial markets such as the money market, bond market, stock market, and insurance market.
The United States has also been promoting to the world that the American financial system is the most complete, transparent and cheap; The United States flaunts the superiority of its financial system, and its essential purpose is to obtain global wealth through financial hegemony.
The United States has completed its control of the international financial system through the control of the international monetary system, financial organizations, infrastructure and other basic elements; seigniorage is collected by virtue of the international monetary status of the US dollar; By influencing global liquidity to pass on the costs of the crisis in their own countries, etc., this is why the president of the World Bank has always been American.
According to US media reports, among the 535 members of Congress in the United States, 182 incumbent members have announced their and their family's investment transactions; There are more than 3,600 transactions of 95 members of Congress related to their work in Congress and have an existing interest; Of these, 47 are Democrats and 48 are Republicans; This is also the reason for the "Capitol Hill stock god" in the United States.
This is undoubtedly a direct slap in the face for the US financial community, which flaunts openness, transparency and integrity!
The US media often report that senior US officials and congressmen conduct insider trading on the New York Stock Exchange, but this is the first time that such a large scale shows that the US financial system is very unreliable and rotten to the end, which is the standard "self-theft".
The US economy not only has many scandals, but more seriously, the US economy has a very serious "three highs and one low", high debt, high inflation, high interest rates, and low economic growth (recession).
High debt, the United States is not only the world's first GDP, but also the world's national debt; The GDP of the United States is 22.95 trillion US dollars, but the US national debt has exceeded 31 trillion US dollars, plus the deficit of 1.37 trillion yuan in fiscal year 2022, the total is already 32.37 trillion US dollars, the US population is 332 million, and the total responsibility of each American is about 97,460 US dollars, about 703,000 yuan.
High inflation, the US CPI reached 9.1% in June 2022, this data is also a 40-year high in the United States, although it has since fallen, but the CPI in September is still as high as 8.2%, still very high.
High interest rates, the Fed started a crazy rate hike in 2022, interest rates from 0--0.25% have reached the range of 3% to 3.25%, and the debt of the United States is very high; If the interest rate is low, then the level of interest payment is also low, because there is zero interest rate.
Rising interest rates amplify debt risk; It also makes debt unsustainable; This is the case in the United States now, where the cost of issuing bonds increases significantly as interest rates rise.
The US economy has entered a very terrible vicious circle, hyperinflation has been above 8% fever, which makes the Fed have to raise interest rates quickly, otherwise high inflation has the risk of collapsing the US economy.
However, after the Fed raised interest rates sharply, US Treasury yields rose sharply; The market expects that if the Fed raises interest rates to 5.5% or more, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds may reach 5%; This is undoubtedly a disaster for the US debt.
The Fed continues to raise interest rates, not only has the opportunity for disastrous consequences for Treasury bonds, but also the US October manufacturing PMI fell below the dry line for the first time in two years, with a value of 49.9; which is the most intuitive signal of a US recession.
In fact, when the US inflation rate soared from 3.5% to 5%, the Fed needed to consider putting the brakes on loose monetary policy anyway, and the Fed missed the best time to raise interest rates.
Of course, this is not actually the responsibility of the Fed, it is the US government that has missed the best time to curb inflation for political self-interest.
It is precisely due to the deterioration of the economy in the United States that more than 60 countries such as Japan, Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, Iran, Russia, and South Africa are abandoning US debt, and the world is de-dollarized; Although the United States is still the most powerful country in the world, it has reached a period of internal worries and external troubles; Perhaps, the collapse of the USSR is the best destination for the United States!
Second, the trend analysis of the US dollar index, the Dow Jones index and the NASDAQ index
The dollar index has not changed in the general trend of upward movement; After the small trend soared to 114.8, it fluctuated in the 109.8 area; American economists analyzed that the crazy interest rate hike gave the US economy a 100% chance of recession, and the US domestic hyperinflation crisis has not ended. U.S. economic growth and inflation have left the Fed in a dilemma.
The Dow Jones Index, Nasdaq Index, and S&P 500 Index rushed higher and retreated, and the three major indexes were downward in the general trend, and the small trend was volatile.
At the same time, the US stock leader Tesla rose slightly, and Apple and Amazon fell; The leading stocks are basically synchronized with the index, confirming that the US stock market is low and volatile, and there is a great chance of ending the unilateral decline.
3. Analysis of the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index
The trend of the A-share ChiNext Index, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index is slightly stronger than that of US stocks, which is less affected by the rise and fall of US stocks, and the trend is very personalized.
The science and technology 500 index is slightly stronger, sideways, other indexes closed up simultaneously, the trading volume is moderate, and the small trend shock has not changed; A shares technically ended the unilateral decline and entered the shock stage, non-falling market, A has the opportunity to stop falling at this position.
4. Summary of Wenqutang stock market trading experience
In the bottom area of the stock market, analyzing and studying industry stocks supported by national policies, especially the best leading stocks in the industry, is the most important job for investors; After the stock falls sharply, the industry has development prospects and the industry's best stocks have the opportunity to rise rapidly! And individual stocks with consistently sluggish performance are difficult to get the attention of the main funds!
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