How long it will take to go from loser to winner, the answer given by former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is 7 weeks.
On October 24, local time, Graham Brady, chairman of the "1922 Committee", a group of Conservative members in the lower house of the British parliament, announced that they had only won one nomination for the leadership of the Conservative Party. According to the rules of the Conservative Party leadership election, all candidates who intend to participate in the party leadership election need to win the support of at least 100 Conservative MPs before they can continue to run by 14:00 local time on October 24.
Sunak, the only one to cross the threshold of 100 MPs, was automatically elected leader of the Conservative Party, and is about to replace Truss, who resigned after only six weeks in office, as the first Indian prime minister of the United Kingdom and the third prime minister of the Conservative Party in a year.
More than a month ago, Sunak and British Prime Minister Truss competed for the leadership of the Conservative Party. Sunak, who led the vote for five consecutive rounds of parliamentarians, lost to Truss, who won 57% of the vote, with 43% of the vote, and lost the position of prime minister.
However, within 6 weeks of Truss's tenure, her massive tax cuts caused market turmoil, and the situation took a turn for the worse, forcing Truss to resign as leader of the Conservative Party and prime minister, becoming the shortest-serving prime minister in British history.
The incoming post-80s prime minister will find a tricky start when he walks into 10 Downing Street. CNN pointed out that after a period of political and financial turmoil, how Sunak will maintain stability and lead the LinkedIn country out of recession is a serious test he will face.
Shortly after being elected leader of the Conservative Party, Sunak spoke privately to Conservative MPs. Conservative MP Simon Hall revealed that Sunak said he would start work immediately and had no time to waste. "It's a tough time and there are no easy answers."
He made a comeback, the third Prime Minister of the year
Just as Brady said he had received only one nomination, the Conservative MPs in the room erupted in loud cheers and banged their fists against the table, which in Conservative tradition meant applause.
On October 24, local time, Graham Brady, chairman of the "1922 Committee", a group of Conservative members in the lower house of the British parliament, announced the results of the election for the leader of the Conservative Party, and Sunak, as the only candidate for the leader of the Conservative Party, won the second Conservative Party leader election he participated in in three months and is about to become the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
The BBC pointed out that the 42-year-old Sunak will also become the youngest prime minister of the United Kingdom since 1812.
Sunak, who has won the election now, stands in stark contrast to a little over a month ago. At that time, Sunak could only watch his rival Truss slowly walk up to the stage amid thunderous applause, deliver a winning speech, and sit in the audience to applaud. Sunak probably wouldn't have imagined that the prime ministership would beckon to him again in such a short period of time.
Truss's massive tax cuts after taking office caused market turmoil, and in the end almost all the measures of the "mini-budget" were recovered. The removal of the chancellor and the public apology for the mistake have not been able to restore public opinion. According to polling data by YouGov, a British polling agency, Truss's public favorability rating is -70%, the lowest favorability of the prime minister since the agency had a poll record.
On October 24, 2022, local time, London, England, former British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak appeared. Photo/IC photo
In the end, Truss had to announce his resignation. Shortly after his resignation speech, Sunak, an old rival against whom he had competed for the leadership of the Conservative Party, immediately led the odds for the next prime minister.
Not only that, Sunak quickly gathered the support of 100 Conservative MPs needed for the nomination. Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, told the Beijing News reporter that this is mainly related to Truss's policy mistakes, and the failure of Truss' tax reduction policy reflects the rationality of Sunak's proposal to stabilize the economy. The Conservatives are now positioned to prioritize solving problems and recovering losses, and Sunak is undoubtedly their first choice. In addition, in the last Conservative Party leadership election, Sunak ranked first in five rounds of MPs, which also proves that he is well recognized among the elite wing of the Conservative Party.
Compared with the last campaign, Sunak is much more cautious this time.
More than three months ago, Sunak immediately announced his candidacy for the leadership of the Conservative Party a day after the resignation of former British Prime Minister Johnson. In this campaign, Sunak has been discussed as a strong contender for the next prime minister for many days, but he has not moved.
It was not until the statistics of a number of British media showed that more than 100 Conservative MPs had publicly announced their support for Sunak that he announced on October 23 local time that he would run for the leader of the Conservative Party and the prime minister.
Notably, in the final stages of the nomination, two potential prime ministerial candidates – Sunak and Johnson – had a private meeting. According to the BBC, two different sources confirmed the meeting but did not disclose what was discussed. Only shortly after the meeting, Sunak ran in a high-profile manner, and Johnson announced that he would not run.
Mr Johnson said he had the support of 100 MPs and was likely to return to 10 Downing Street again, "but over the last few days I have regretfully concluded that this is simply not the right thing to do and you can't govern the country unless there is a united party in Parliament." ”
Perhaps the Johnson team's "open" candidacy is a strategy in itself. Cui Hongjian said that the Conservative government can be said to be a "mess" now, and this is not the best time for Johnson to make a comeback. It is also not ruled out that Johnson proposed to run for election, but only wanted to "retreat as advance" as a bargaining chip with Sunak, which could further consolidate his influence in the party and bring greater benefits to him in the future when he came out again at the right time.
Elite origin, Sunak is known as the "British economic Jedi"
Sunak was born in 1980 in Southampton, England, to Indian parents who immigrated to the UK from East Africa at an early age, the father was a general practitioner and his mother ran an independent pharmacy.
As a "second generation of immigrants", Sunak grew up with a typical British aristocratic education. After graduating from Winchester College, he went on to study Philosophy, Politics and Economics at Oxford University, graduating first in 2001. After graduating from bachelor's degree, Sunak went on to study for an MBA at Ivy League Stanford University in the United States.
After leaving school, Sunak worked for Goldman Sachs and several other hedge fund firms before officially entering politics in 2015, when he was elected as a Conservative MP for the Richmond constituency of Yorkshire. In 2019, Sunak entered the cabinet for the first time as chief secretary to the Ministry of Finance.
In February 2020, then-Chancellor of the Exchequer Javid resigned after a conflict with Johnson, and Sunak was promoted by Johnson as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, ushering in an important turning point in his political career.
On November 3, 2021, local time, Glasgow, UK, during the COP26 United Nations climate summit, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak held a green box to announce that the UK will become the "first ever net-zero emissions" financial center. Photo/IC photo
Not long after Sunak's "promotion", the new crown epidemic broke out in the UK. Sunak launched a series of aid programs with the rhetoric of protecting people's health and safety "at all costs", and was welcomed by many people because he abandoned obscure and difficult terminology and communicated in plain language, hence the name "Britain's economic Jedi".
But Sunak's economic policies are equally controversial. The BBC noted that some believe these moves are too cautious. Others argue that the tools are so blunt and inaccurate that some people who don't need help are subsidized while those most in need are not adequately compensated.
Despite the criticism, no one can deny that Sunak has taken center stage in Conservative politics with his performance in dealing with the pandemic.
And Sunak, who has just taken a place in British politics, has encountered a very dramatic period in 2022. At the beginning of the year, the Johnson government was criticized for the "partygate" scandal, and Sunak became the most promising candidate within the Conservative Party to replace Johnson. However, his wife, Murthy, the daughter of an Indian billionaire, was exposed to evade paying taxes in the UK as a "non-British tax resident", which also caused Sunak to encounter public opinion bombardment. Subsequently, Sunak was also implicated in the "party door" and was fined. A series of scandals have also damaged Sunak's image.
Sunak eventually chose to complete the cut with the Johnson government and took his own initiative after Johnson's resignation to run for the leadership of the Conservative Party, but lost to Truss when the Conservative Party members voted in the end. Just as Sunak's political future became uncertain, Truss resigned by "lightning" after 45 days in office, and the position of leader and prime minister of the Conservative Party became vacant again, and Sunak seized the opportunity to become the new prime minister of the United Kingdom.
There are many challenges, and future economic policies may focus on "seeking stability"
Taking over the baton from Truss, Sunak faces a tricky start. The Associated Press pointed out that Truss's resignation continues the instability since Brexit and has also put the Conservative Party in doubt as it faces a cost-of-living crisis and an impending recession.
Truss presented himself as the successor to former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's policies, advocating low-tax, low-regulation economic policies, but the "mini-budget" scandal proved that these policies can have disastrous consequences in the real world of soaring inflation and weak growth.
Like Truss, Sunak is moving closer to Thatcher's economic policies. Ding Chun, director of the Center for European Studies at Fudan University, once told the Beijing News reporter that Thatcher came to power in the era of "British disease", at least within the Conservative Party, it affirmed Thatcher's measures and achievements that year. Now that Britain is in crisis again, Thatcher has become the object of imitation to create an image that can lead the revival of the LinkedIn country.
The difference is that Sunak stressed that tax cuts would only be made if inflation was under control, stressed fiscal responsibility, and argued that empty promises of tax cuts like Truss were just "selling fairy tales" to the masses.
On August 31, 2022 local time, London, England, then British Prime Minister candidates Truss and Sunak held their last campaign rally. Photo/IC photo
After Sunak took office, he may mainly seek stability. Cui Hongjian pointed out that after the trial and error of Truss's economic policy, it is now necessary to admit that at least in the short term, the UK's economic policy is still based on stability and overcoming inflation, and it will not easily and blindly implement stimulus policies.
"The key is what to do after you seek stability." Cui Hongjian added that Truss's replacement of Finance Minister Hunt has stopped large-scale tax cuts, and while pursuing stability, Sunak needs to give the market more confidence, and how to promote economic growth next is the biggest test Sunak faces.
In addition, Sunak will have to find ways to salvage Britain's political image, which has been battered by frequent leadership changes. Bronwyn Maddox, director of Chatham House, an international affairs think tank, said: "There is no doubt that Britain's standing in the world has been severely hit by this incident (in this case, Truss's policy blunders and sudden resignation) and the frequent change of prime ministers." ”
"The UK used to be synonymous with stability and reliability (albeit a bit dreary), but the fact that Truss resigned after six weeks in power, becoming the fourth prime minister to resign since the 2016 Brexit referendum, highlights how chaotic British politics has become in recent years." NPR commented.
It all seems to have started in 2016, when then-Prime Minister David Cameron called for a referendum on Brexit, hoping that the referendum would end the debate within the Conservative Party over Britain's relationship with the EU, however, the "Brexit" faction won by a narrow margin, Cameron resigned and May came to power.
May wanted to use her victory in the early election in 2017 to push for a "Brexit" deal, but unexpectedly caused the Conservative Party to suffer a catastrophic defeat. On the other hand, the "Brexit" agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union was rejected by the lower house of the British Parliament three times, and although she survived a vote of no confidence in the party, in the deadlock, May finally chose to resign.
Subsequently, Johnson defeated his opponent by a clear margin in the Conservative Party internal elections, was elected party leader, and succeeded Theresa May as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. In October 2019, in order to break the "Brexit" deadlock, Johnson held an early general election under the slogan of "getting Brexit" and won the election to the lower house of parliament.
Johnson's seat did not last long, the scandal-ridden Johnson government collapsed under the impact of a large-scale "wave of resignations", Truss's aggressive tax cuts frightened financial markets, and Sunak played the "AB role" of the leader of the Conservative Party.
Commenting on the succession of prime ministers' resignations, Tim Bale, a professor of political science at Queen Mary University of London, said the reason for the resignation of Conservative prime ministers such as Johnson and Truss was that they always promised the public what they could not keep. Johnson promised a "zero-cost, zero-hassle" Brexit, and Truss promised a tax cut that didn't require financial support.
Sunak is already the third Prime Minister the Conservatives will replace for the British people in 2022. Cui Hongjian pointed out that although the Conservative Party has been in power for 12 consecutive years, it has been resolving internal contradictions in the party through an abnormal transfer of power, which will also lead to more doubts about the legitimacy of the government.
"For now, Sunak can only rely on policy effectiveness to compensate for the lack of political legitimacy." Cui Hongjian said that at least in the short term, Sunak is unlikely to make a major policy mistake similar to Truss's. In addition, taking a step back, every time the Conservative Party holds an internal party election, it is divisive within the party, and even if Sunak makes a mistake in office, the Conservative Party will be very careful to weigh the change of leader.
In the last Conservative leadership race, which lasted about two months, Rishi Sunak's slogan was "Ready for Rishi". Now that Sunak has a firm grip on the keys to 10 Downing Street, the question to ask now becomes, "Rishi, are you ready?" ”
Beijing News reporter Luan Ruoxi
Editor Zhang Lei Proofreader Liu Yue