With cabinet resignations and high inflation, will Truss become Britain's shortest-lived" prime minister?

The Paper reporter Wang Zhuoyi

On October 19, local time, British Home Secretary Suella Braverman resigned. Just five days ago, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwarten was dismissed after 38 days in office after releasing a "mini-budget" that caused financial turmoil and opposition from Conservative MPs. Braverman is the second senior Truss government official to step down in less than a week.

On October 19, opposition lawmakers said that the Conservative Party forced some members of the party to vote for the government in Parliament, and the current difficult economic situation in the United Kingdom put more pressure on Truss, who only took office as prime minister on September 6. Some foreign media said that Truss faces the risk of becoming the most "short-lived" prime minister in British history.

Ding Chun, director of the Center for European Studies at Fudan University and vice president of the China European Society, told The Paper that as a key cabinet member, Brevman's resignation "will undoubtedly have a greater impact on the Truss cabinet and whether Truss can continue to govern", and whether this incident will trigger another "wave of resignations" in the British cabinet remains to be seen, and the trend of British politics in the coming period still faces many uncertainties.

October 19, 2022 local time, London, United Kingdom, British Prime Minister Elizabeth Truss spoke at the Prime Minister's Q&A in the London House of Commons. Visual China map

Sunak supporters take over as interior minister

Breverman said he had to resign because he violated government rules, and she expressed concern about the way forward for the Truss government, Reuters reported on October 19.

In a letter to Truss posted on Twitter, Braverman said she had sent an official document to a parliamentary colleague via personal email as a "technical violation of the rules" and that it was only right to leave.

Breverman also wrote that the current administration has broken "key promises to voters" and that she expressed "concern" about the direction the government is heading.

When Truss became prime minister, the initial cabinet appointments were made to the pro-free market faction of the Conservative Party. But on October 14, Truss appointed Jeremy Hunt to replace Kwarten, who had resigned, as Chancellor of the Exchequer. Hunt backed Truss's rival for prime minister, former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak, who reversed "almost all" of the previously announced tax measures after taking office.

According to CNN, the British Prime Minister's official residence tweeted on the 19th that former British Transport Secretary Grant Shapps, who also supported Sunak, took over as Home Secretary. According to the British Media Association, Shapps publicly questioned earlier this week how long Truss's prime minister could last, saying that Truss would need to "climb Mount Everest" if he was to remain in power.

The Conservatives have been accused of forcing MPs to vote for the government

According to a BBC report on October 19, confusion in the British House of Commons during the vote on the fracking ban on shale gas extraction that day angered many Conservative MPs, making Truss's situation more uncertain.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the British government officially lifted the shale gas production ban in September, which means that the ban on hydraulic fracturing technology in the United Kingdom since November 2019 has been lifted.

This decision subsequently caused a lot of controversy. According to the BBC and CNN, some opposition lawmakers claimed on October 19 that the British government forcibly pulled some Conservative MPs to vote that day to force them to support the government, and that Conservative MPs were "intimidated and harassed."

Opposition Labour MP Anna McMorrin wrote on Twitter that she saw a Conservative MP "in tears" being "violently dragged into the hall" to vote against Labour's motion to extend the fracking ban.

David Linden, another opposition Scottish National Party MP, also tweeted that he had seen "the deputy prime minister pull up an undecided Conservative MP and take him into the halls of government". Lyndon called the scene "surprising."

Although a ministerial official denied the opposition MPs' claims, many Conservative MPs were angry and disappointed with the Conservative Party that day. According to the BBC, Conservative MP Charles Walker said in an interview that the situation was "a mess". Walker added: "I expect the prime minister to resign soon because she is not up to the job she can do. And the British government has "no turning back."

Inflation is at a 40-year high

Since Truss came to power, the domestic economic situation in the United Kingdom has been in turmoil. According to CNN reported on October 19, data released by the British Office for National Statistics on the same day showed that the UK inflation rate rose to 10.1% in September, the same as the inflation rate in July, higher than 9.9% from September 2021 to August 2022, reaching a 40-year high. Soaring food and energy prices have driven recent inflation in the UK.

The Office for National Statistics said food prices rose 14.6 percent year-on-year, the single biggest factor driving inflation acceleration.

The Bank of England's head of England, who is set to meet on November 3 to formulate interest rate policy, worried the Bank of England that inflation returned to double digits in September, with its governor, Andrew Bailey, saying a "stronger response" might be needed to contain rising prices.

CNN pointed out in the report that the peak of the British inflation rate may not have yet arrived. The ING believes that UK inflation could peak in October and start to ease in 2023. However, energy prices remain a big unknown. According to previous reports, Hunter said on October 17 that the British government will end its large-scale energy price cap intervention next April, replacing it with an "undecided" plan, after which the energy bills of many ordinary British households may soar again. US investment banking giant Goldman Sachs has therefore warned that inflation in the UK could rise by 11.9% year-on-year in April 2023 and "remain high throughout 2023".

The choice of the next prime minister remains uncertain

On October 17 and 18, British pollster YouGov conducted an impromptu survey of 530 Conservative Party members. According to data released on YouGov on October 18, 55% of Conservative Party members believe Truss should step down as prime minister, and 38% want her to stay in office. Truss's current approval rating is already close to that before Johnson stepped down, when 59 percent wanted Johnson to leave and 36 percent wanted him to stay.

In addition, for the question "If Truss resigns, who would most like to take over as prime minister", 32% of respondents chose Johnson. Sunak, who previously lost to Truss in the Conservative Party leadership race, is also a favourite, coming second with 23% support. Wallace, the defense secretary in third place, received 10 percent support.

Ding Chun believes that Johnson has expressed his willingness to re-serve as prime minister and has certain ability and appeal, so Johnson has the possibility of re-emergence. But he pointed out that if Truss steps down, despite the high polls, it will not be easy for Johnson to make up the Conservative party to make up his mind and eat back grass compared to the next prime minister's contenders such as Sunak and Hunt, and the leader of the lower house of parliament, Penny Mordaunt.

According to Reuters on October 8, a YouGov survey conducted from October 6 to 7 showed that Labour's support rating was 52%, much higher than the Conservative Party's 22%. When asked which party leader would be the best candidate for prime minister, Labour leader Kiir Starmer was significantly ahead of Truss's 13% with 43 per cent support.

According to CCTV news, during a parliamentary question on October 12, a Labour lawmaker pointed out that in the last two polls, 60% of the people surveyed expressed their desire for an immediate general election in the United Kingdom. CNN pointed out in the report that if the British general election resumes, the Conservative Party will face a crushing defeat.

In this regard, Xin Hua, director of the European Union Research Center at Shanghai Chinese University, believes that the Conservative Party can maintain its ruling position until the end of this year, "but not necessarily by next year." "When public opinion accumulates to a certain extent, and domestic criticism of the ruling party and the ruling cabinet is strong to a certain extent", the UK will dissolve the parliament and hold a new election.

Senior Editor of this issue Xing Tan