At the end of 1974, at 6 p.m. on Monday, Mike 1: "What is the root cause of stagflation?" Commerce? System? Capitalism? ”
A middle-aged man with long hair and shawl, strangely dressed, wearing makeup, and a rebellious atmosphere all over his body drank the remaining bourbon from his cup, mixed with alcohol and a thick Canadian accent, and said: "None of it, the roots are in the Federation." If the federation does not print money without restraint, it will be inflationary. A federal increase in tax rates would hurt capital accumulation and cause unemployment. Finally, unemployment is doomed. ”
The old mischievous hippie was called Mundell, yes, the one who proposed the "Mundell Impossible Triangle" and was hailed as the "father of the euro".
The disciple next to him, Laf, immediately said, "Yes, the more taxes you collect, the less you get." ”
Vanisky got up and added whiskey and ice cubes to Mundell's glass and asked, "What is the way to teach you?" ”
"Man, is the trouble filling up?" As for the solution, stabilize the currency and cut the tax rate. Mundell blurted out.
Bailey, who had been silent for a long time, shook the half cup of Martini in his hand and asked, "What about the deficit?" ”
Mundell began shaking his head and said, "Don't worry, rich Arabs, clever Germans, and hard-working Japanese." will fill these gaps.
Fifteen years later, the Wall Street Journal had a blood-red cover on the front page of the Wall Street Journal that read: Tora! Tora! Tora!。 The Americans exclaimed that this was the second attack on Pearl Harbor. At the height of the frenzy, Yasushi Mieno, then president of the Bank of Japan known as Heisei Onihei, said a familiar saying, "It is not right for a society where wage earners work hard to afford to buy a house for the rest of their lives." There was a translation of this sentence 30 years later. "The house is for living, not for speculation."
So, in these three decades of ups and downs, is Japan the only one who is so crazy? Of course not, Japan is sitting on the rise of industry, cultural export, basic science, real estate bubble, population decline, monetary policy This set of exercises full of answers is naturally copied by latecomers and innovated. With other players in this monster room in Asia, this big drama was staged together, in which iron-fisted politicians, Internet celebrities, star giants, and small people in the city have appeared, one after another, one after another, a sad song of the times, a period of love and hate, mixed in the red dust of the world. I'm Old Xiao, today let's talk about thirty years of Asian sex.
#1
Tokyo Illusion
In 1990, the average land price in Tokyo was already more than 10 million yen per square meter, and the Tokyo Ginza was the ultimate price of 120 million yen, which was jokingly called "the most expensive place in the universe". As for New York and London, sorry, in the eyes of the Japanese at that time, except for Tokyo, it was all rural.
At the scene of the real estate lottery for a new building in Tokyo's Shinjuku district, Japanese television filmed a young man who had failed to draw lots many times, and tens of millions of viewers saw this young man who had money but could not buy a marriage house, emotionally collapsed and fell to the ground and convulsed.
So much so that today's kings will have a question. The house says buy it, where does the money come from?
Perhaps the banner on the Bank of Japan gave the answer, with eight big words in bright red last time reading: Forget to save, go all out to lend.
Let's take a look at how this group of avid bankers operates.
In 1977, Chimasao became popular in Japan with a song "Spring in the North". When he got married, the bank clerk came to the door to sell the loan. At that time, it was popular for wealthy Japanese to go to Hawaii to get married, but there were no hotels dedicated to Japanese people there. So the banker said to Chishoo, "If you go to get married, you can invest in a hotel by the way."
Chichango asked: Can there be a market for this business?
The bank said: Then you are really lonely, where the sun shines, and people who don't speak Japanese? Today, even Fiji's blacks who work as waitresses in hotels have learned to speak Japanese. You see this chat, 30 years later, the Japanese housewife of the Ikebukuro drugstore in Tokyo greeted her with a more authentic Northeast dialect: Big sister, look here, our shop thief is real, free mail tax refund a dragon.
Back to the point, Chisao continued, "I don't have any money. ”
The bank replied: "It doesn't matter, as long as you sign it." ”
Chimasao asked, "How much can you borrow?" ”
Banks say, "Is 10 billion enough?" ”
Qian Changfu hurriedly said, "No, no, you are welcome, 5 billion is enough." ”
The bank answered: "No, no, you are too polite, believe me, you need 10 billion." ”
Therefore, 10 billion was stuffed into Chishoo.
The next day a second bank came: "I heard you're building a hotel in Hawaii?" When Japanese go to Hawaii, they like to soak in the beach and play golf. Or build another golf course. ”
Chimasao wondered: Build a golf course next to the beach? Are you sure you're not kidding?
Mr. Wang Duoyu, who invested in the Arctic to sell ice cubes decades later and only bought delisted stocks, laughed: You are really my Wolong Phoenix Chick.
In this way, Chishoo, who had only planned to travel on his honeymoon, had an additional loan of 20 billion yen in two days.
These things that were in the newspapers of that year now sound so unreasonable, because everyone who has worked in the bank should know that such a large loan, the approval department does not care. Tube, how can you leave it alone.
At that time, an interview program interviewed a loan officer at Mitsui Bank, Yamamoto. Yamamoto described that one day, I went to the head office's examination department to apply for a loan. At that time, this customer owned land worth 100 million yen. In principle, he can borrow 70 million. But I suggested to the censorship department that it would be okay to borrow 100 million, right? They retorted loudly, "Don't talk stupid! Don't you know that the property will appreciate in value? Today the house is worth 100 million, but next month it will rise to 120 million, half a year is 150 million, a year later it will rise to 200 million! You only lent him 100 million, do you know how much money this move is going to make us less money?
Take it back and rewrite, at least give him 120 million, this is the bottom line, the bottom line you know?
After Yamamoto resubmitted the 120 million yuan to the examination department, the censors seemed to be somewhat disgusted and hurriedly stamped it, and shoved the 120 million yuan review report into me like a handwritten paper.
And these are just a few corners of the Showa Dream Era. The sky-high baseball clubs of 100 million yen sold out in seven days, the whole pile of ten thousand yuan bills in Ginza without tearing off the seal was tipped, and the sky-high taxi in Kabukicho pulled the presidents of Yamazaki, Baizhou, and Louis XIII to Park Hyatt and the peninsula.
A few years later, a Taiwanese scholar ranked first in the "Ranking of Japan's 100 Economists" organized by Nikkei Shimbun for three consecutive years, and then, as the only foreigner who could participate in the formulation of Japan's five-year economic plan, set 1990 as the dividing point of Japan's history. The epoch-making concept of "balance sheet recession" was proposed. In a word, he almost wanted to become a Japanese teacher. Let's dig a pit for the time being, let me fill it in the future, two flowers bloom, each table has a branch, then what kind of scene was Hong Kong at that time?
#2
Hong Kong giants
Before 1958, none of the four major families were involved in the real estate business, Li Ka-shing was single-mindedly doing plastic flower king, Guo Desheng was making zipper clothing for Japan, and the remaining Lee Shau Kee and Zheng Yutong were busy doing gold and silver currency business. In 1958, the heads of the four major families decided to enter the real estate industry almost overnight. By 1972, their respective real estate companies had come to power, and the reputation of the four major families began to influence the following half century.
Hong Kong people believe in fate, luck and feng shui. There is a legend circulating that in the first feng shui master Chen Lang of Hong Kong and Macao in the province of Hong Kong and Macao, in the first meeting with Mr. Li, Mr. Li started with industry, originally doubted the study of feng shui, and was quite stubborn about this master, and the first sentence of his mouth was: Why did Mr. Li teach me?
Chen Lang cherished words like gold, and only said four words: sell buildings, create dreams. Mr. Li continued to ask: Where can I go? Chen Lang's palm repeated and he didn't say a word.
As a result, an entire generation of Hong Kong people have fallen into a dream about buying a house.
In 1990, "Gambler" grossed 41.32 million yuan in 28 days, breaking the record of the Hong Kong film industry, and Chow Xingchi bought the Fengjing Garden at No. 12 Baoyun Road in the Mid-Levels District in the first thing.
Xu Xiaofeng, in an interview, lamented her mother's words: "When I was very young, my aunt told me to buy bricks as soon as I had money, and now I really wake up laughing in my dreams."
After the hospital affair between the great beauty Guan Zhilin and Liu Luanxiong was exposed, Hermes and Chanel, who had tried and failed in the past, could not calm their resentment. The beauty cried, and finally gave the property to each other, only to calm the storm. Later, the great beauty said privately: The man is someone else's, but the house is his own.
If dream-making is the best strategic layout in the real estate game, then building flowers is the best tactical operation.
The term "building flower" was coined by Fok Ying Tung, and when the new building is built, a deposit and installment payment are first paid. If the project bears fruit, the full amount will be paid. This move is known as selling real estate flowers. Customers spend today's money to buy tomorrow's house; Real estate developers spend other people's money to realize their dreams. This initiative was originally a mutually beneficial measure for both buyers and sellers, but then it was played from a deposit to a deposit, and the down payment made the richest man.
It is said that the triangle is the most stable structure, so with dreams, with the flowers, can the next keyword be engraved in the huge cake of real estate? Yes, that's the flow of gold.
Under the effect of building flowers, the real estate naturally comes with empty gloves and white wolf attributes. The land is the government, the money is the bank, and the money to buy a house is really in your own pocket. A building has not yet been built, you can recover huge amounts of money, and once the snowball rolls up, it is enough to withstand all storms. From 1975 to 1997, in the three financial storms that traversed Hong Kong, the four major families with huge gold flows not only emerged unscathed, but also took advantage of the reserve price after the financial crisis to buy the old residential areas located in the prime area of the city center, and took the opportunity to acquire a large number of enterprises involved in port trade, retail, energy, transportation and other fields.
After the storm, facing the chicken feathers of Hong Kong, people are horrified to find that the former tycoon is still sitting high in the clouds, but the hill-like chips on the table in front of him seem to have more. Over the past two decades, the Kwok brothers have taken control of Kowloon Bus, Lee Shau Kee has control of Chunghwa Gas, Cheng Yu-tung has two bus companies, Singapore Bus and Citybus, and the "landing" ship king Pao Yuk-gang bought the Star Ferry and the Hong Kong Island Tramway.
As for Mr. Li, who stood on the dome in dialogue with Master Chen Lang, he would occasionally sigh: It is like this when a child is born.
1990, Special Care Unit of Hong Kong Sanatorium and Hospital. There were five men in the ward, the old man lying down, the lawyer standing, and three middle-aged men lying on the bedside. The old man is the generation of the four major families in Hong Kong who co-founded Sun Hung Kai with Lee Shau Kee. The inheritance of the rich is the biggest gossip that the Hong Kong masses will always like, and the unfairness of the separation of the family from generation to generation has led to the reversal of the brothers, and the farce of resorting to the public court to make the magnate dignified and chicken feathers is frequently staged. The final will result was: three brothers jointly ran the company, and the event was voted on.
During his time at the helm of the company, the three sons built the Central Plaza in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong International Finance Centre and the 490-metre-high Skyscraper in Hong Kong, the International Commerce Centre. Leave the ass of the city skyline to Li Ka-shing. In 1992, Sun Hung Kai's market capitalization surpassed Li Ka-shing's Yangtze River Field to become the largest real estate company in Hong Kong. Leading the four major families. So that at the funeral of Guo Lao, Li Ka-shing, Li Zhaoji, and Zheng Yutong, who are also the first generation of the four major families, sighed: "After fighting with Lao Guo all his life, there is no difference between victory and defeat, but in terms of the heir, we are not as good as him."
And this fraternal scene was broken a few years later by another "rich man". Shortly after Hong Kong's return to the motherland in 1997, his elder brother Kwok Ping Xiang encountered Zhang Ziqiang, nicknamed "The Rich Man", in the Taipingshan Tunnel, and he was tied to a village house in the New Territories.
In this kidnapping case, Zhang Ziqiang offered 2 billion yuan. The two brothers of the Guo family said: 4 million is not OK? If you have no concept of this number, let's change the scene, your mother takes you to the mall to buy a dress, the owner asks for 200, and your mother counters for 4 Mao. The robber asked you to cut the hair with the hair, and you discussed that the chest hair was too long, and we could pull out the hair of the hand. As a result, Guo Bingxiang was naked in a small wooden box for six days and six nights, blindfolded, bound to his hands and feet, and only a small hole in the whole box for venting. The entire negotiation process lasted for a week, and Guo Bingxiang truly interpreted the week of the pump. In the following thirty years, the Guo family, a Xiangjiang giant, provided countless materials for TVB dramas, providing a steady stream of nutrients for entertainment gossip newspapers. The company was suspended, the company was in prison, the lover entered the game, the old lady came out of the mountain, and the ups and downs.
In 1997, when Hong Kong returned to the motherland, the total wealth of the "four major families" exceeded $44 billion, equivalent to the GDP of 7 Guangdong. Also that year, Liu Yongxing, the mainland's richest man in the feed and finance business, was only 249th on the Forbes Rich List for $800 million.
But only a year later, the arrival of the housing reform in 1998, the east wind of this real estate will soon blow all over the land of Shenzhou, and the protagonists of the next era will also take turns to appear.
#3
The richest man survives
Modern history is a big year every 8, and 1998 is an economic enlightenment for many people, when Baidu's bear paw was still fluttering computers in the United States, otherwise the annual hot word on the Internet, the economic crisis will definitely be on the list.
This crisis is like a breeze in the mainstream caliber, and the end is naturally the victory of good over evil, and the prince defeats the frog. The following year, non-performing asset handling giant China Huarong was established.
In the era of no box, the economy is like a baby without immunity, saying that a fever is a fever.
At that time, macro-control was not as strong as it is today, and it was composed of so many abbreviated letters. The economy relies on printing money day and night, and then encouraging banks to lend. The flood of credit went all the way south, and Hainan had a population of less than 7 million, but it gave birth to nearly 30,000 real estate companies.
The post-1995 generation certainly did not know that in the ten years before they were born, there were two hyperinflations in the mainland. No one was saving money, and people were busy withdrawing cash from the bank and replacing it with sugar, cabbage and condoms.
Those years of flooding Kyushu left a big mess for China's banking industry, with a non-performing rate of 30%, and the industry's caliber was called: technology bankruptcy. Translated into the human phrase: insolvency. How did this bad rate come about. The three tons of gold in Hua Rong Lai's home were silent.
And what are all the big guys doing in the future real estate?
Wang Shigang experienced the first equity dispute in the history of Vanke, and its waves were thunderous everywhere. It was not until Wang Shi personally sued in 2014 that the melon-eating masses smelled one of the fierce. Forced palace, speech, suspension, league, defection. Flip. Sure enough, movies and television are remakes, and life is original. Wang Zong's magnificent memoirs, Yao Ge of the churrosette stall next door should have listened to a lot, and the barbarians came again in 15 years. This battle was even worse, with financial daily, securities headlines, and entertainment gossip reporting in turn, and the masses were eating braised pork with their mouths full of oil. In the end, Chairman Liu personally reprimanded: goblins, where to run. A stick down, the belt brother shouted: I am a long-term capital, financial investment. How long is this line, and is 2 trillion enough?
As for the others.
Sun Hongbin had not yet mounted the white horse that his godfather had given him, and Xu Jiayin had not yet fastened his belt.
Yang Guoqiang marched into Guangzhou from Shunde and shouted: "Build a house by producing goods." Country Garden's five days of drawings, ten days into the venue of the means has begun to see.
Wang Jianlin opened the first Wanda Plaza on Chongqing Road in Changchun, and commercial + residential became Wanda's double weapon, and after twenty years of crossing the rivers and lakes, he broke his arm to survive, leaving the song of the annual meeting: nothing.
At that time, the popular fried chicken was the six gentlemen of Wantong. Pan Shiyi started with Tianhu, and only occasionally wrote his mother's teachings on the blog: poor life ambition, rich living morality. Although he is the chairman of SOHO China, most of the company's shares are in the name of his wife Zhang Xin. Therefore, no one knows whether Lao Pan is "living morality" or "living ambition". Many years later, SOHO has just been listed in Hong Kong, and Zhang Xin said that it will rush to exceed 100 billion yuan within five years; Ten years later, the half-year revenue of this housing enterprise is 800 million, and there is only 99.2 billion yuan left from 100 billion. Another gentleman, Feng Lun, served as the chairman of the China Medical and Health Alliance for 13 years, and the company was established in Putian.
As for Song Weiping, a young man of literature and art, because he organized students to take to the streets. Suspended by the leader. Ten bottles of Zhoushan beer were poured into the house and a large front door was removed. After throwing down the last cigarette butt, he looked up at the huge moon in the sky, roared three times, turned south, and entered the rivers and lakes.
It was a time when everyone was running blindfolded, until the heavy snow in 2002 came a little earlier than before.
On December 25, 2022, Professor Wei Jie of Tsinghua University delivered an interview entitled "2002, Winter of Real Estate" on CCTV 2. He said 2002 would be a dark age in real estate history, with the bubble surpassing 1993 and if the housing market didn't crash in the coming year, "I'm going to jump off the building."
The result is that the people who say they are going to jump off the building are still waving on the stage. But many of the audience missed the train because they took this nap and could not go back. As a result, everyone knows that the next year, the property market did not collapse, but began to enter a golden age of more than ten years. Until someone shouted the words: Silver Age.
In 2014, Yu Liang wrote in state media that the property market has entered the second half, and the golden decade will be a silver age of slowing growth. Sun Hongbin replied with two words: nonsense. And bluntly: this is the diamond era of large companies, because large companies are constantly merging the market share of small companies, small companies are gone, and this era is over. The big guy really said yes, and since then, Sunac's stock price has doubled tenfold in three years. Not much, just over 1,000 small goals. Since then, the knight has stepped on the white horse, calmly marched, watched the music, saved Wanda, stood up to Hengda, three in and three out, all worship.
As for why the real estate brother will shout out the silver age, this really can't blame the first brother, those years the real estate has long changed from the little sweet of the past to the cow lady today. At this time, the reddest thing is only three words: Internet. LeTV, with the title of the first A-share Internet share, with less than a billion profits, has forced the 100 billion real estate leader Vanke to press under its feet, in exchange for everyone who has to sigh and scold the mother: The times have passed.
The past era that was clearly said to be good has returned. One brother did not understand something, the water can flow downstream, it can also flow backwards, the car can drive straight, it can also drive upside down. In 15 years, the Tianhe River overturned, and the third uncle and grandfather of the east of the village called me across the ocean and said: Come back at the end of the year and take time to come back to the cousin's wedding.
I vaguely remembered my cousin's height of 160 and weight of 160, and took the liberty of asking: Which offspring has such a vision to see our cousin's Wangfu appearance.
The third uncle and grandfather returned soberly: our family demolished and lost five suites and a lot of 0.
Rich people eventually become dependents, they rush to a lot of 0, and at the end of the year, they have to take time to go back to accompany the third uncle and grandfather to play two mahjong well.
In 2017, after the Silver Age argument, Vanke shouted again in internal meetings with a debt ratio of 20%: Live.
At the same time, Sunac's net debt ratio was 260%, and Sun Knight shouted: Run.
As for how to run, in June 2018, after the general manager of Nanjing Wanda Mao sent a "sorry" message to her husband and daughter's WeChat group, the mobile phone turned off. The next day, the body was found at a construction site in Xianlin Lake. Before her death, she had been spinning for more than 300 days. The Internet industry's understanding of overtime is that if it is still working at the end of the work, it is even overtime. Many real estate companies, like in Wanda Mao, work overtime at 12 p.m.
Go before 12 o'clock, which is also called overtime?
The amusement of Uncle Ge is that he can always describe the absurd facts to you in a serious way. For example: you work hard, brother will help you marry a sister-in-law next year.
#4
End
In March this year, Japan had just opened its doors, and a group of Hong Kong friends came to Tokyo to prepare for the language school. After visiting the student dormitory, the big brother of Hong Kong pulled me down in the shade of the tree with a mysterious face and said softly: This is a dragon bed plate.
I thought what feng shui secret words, humble to ask for advice, the big brother calmly said: At present, Hong Kong sells houses of less than 12.5 square meters (standard parking space size) as long as they can put down the bed and toilet, collectively known as the dragon bed plate. After all, the emperor only used one bed to sleep.
The sun was a little harsh that day, taking advantage of the shade of the tree to habitually open the stock software and look at Evergrande and Sunac. Finally, it is no longer like an electrocardiogram, and in a gray field, it has become a straight line. No one knows where to end up, but in the field of electrocardiograms, going sideways all the time doesn't seem like a good sign.