In the past two days, medical treatment has stood on the cusp of the storm, and the rumors of Aunt Ge's departure have made people reverie. Many women do not know how much cosmetics they have bought, many men do not know how much good cigarettes and wine they have bought, and they have shrunk their clothes and food to manage their finances, and they have found that they have lost a lot by the fund manager.
Only now do you really understand what it is: if you don't manage money, money won't pit you.
What value investment, what undervalued sector, found that there seem to be pits everywhere.
Is there a problem with the level of Aunt Ge, in fact, she herself has bought her own fund, and she has successfully taken profit in a relatively high area, including Zhao Bei of ICBC Medical, who has also had similar operations, and it is also a relatively high level of take profit.
It shows that the level of these fund managers themselves is not a big problem, the biggest problem is that the funds they manage belong to the industry fund, relying on the dividends of the industry outlet. The surge in medicine and medical care in 2020 is mainly the rise caused by the global epidemic outbreak.
From the technical analysis, the high level of medical and medical funds in 2021 is very easy to take profits, as long as a little understanding of the technology knows that it belongs to the classic top form: double top plus top divergence pattern. Coupled with the extreme overvaluation of the entire plate at that time, if you do not choose to take profits at this time, either you are a little white and do not understand anything, or because of your greed to blind yourself.
Some people may say why these fund managers do not remind everyone to take profits, in fact, every time you watch the live broadcast of the fund manager, no matter which fund manager or the fund manager of which fund company, it is a bunch of clichés, what value investment, what long-term holding.
If you are a fund manager, you will also say so, because if you let everyone take profits, everyone redeems, what management fees do fund managers and fund companies earn, and there is a situation, if the fund manager is wrong, the market continues to rise, and may be scolded more badly by the basic people.
So in this investment market, we must look at these phenomena rationally, only we are professional, understand some basic investment common sense, such as an industry in the context of extreme overvaluation, but also to give you the classic double top plus top divergence pattern, then hurry up to take profit, even if the fund manager knows it is impossible to publicly tell the basic people.
When will medicine and medical care stabilize and rise? I personally don't think that there are many eye-catching articles on the Internet such as the extremely undervalued sector that is about to rise sharply, and it is difficult to achieve excess returns in the A-share market simply by relying on the undervaluation strategy.
I personally think that the simplest is to look at the technical indicators of the large cycle level, only the trend will not deceive people. If you look at the bull market of medicine and medical treatment from 2019 to 2020, in fact, it is very simple, as long as you buy it in the monthly level moving average indicator and the MACD to form a double golden cross, that is, in May 2019, you can eat most of the profits.
And in 2021, the monthly moving average and the MACD form a double dead fork after stopping buying, you can avoid a lot of losses. Having time to invest is simple, it's just that we've read too many articles saying that the market is unpredictable, but there is one thing: the trend is continuous, and many times it is often ignored by us. It's like a big rock rolling down a hillside, not something you can stop if you want to.
If the later CSI Medical Index can form an oversold pattern at the monthly level, and even the monthly level can form a double golden cross, then the probability will be a good rebound.
Of course, the monthly level will have a certain lag, we can look at the weekly level, the weekly level at least to form a moving average and MACD double golden cross to have the hope of rising, and the current CSI medical index is dead pressed by the downward trend line, and only by breaking through the previous downward trend line is expected to rise further.
In summary, we can get relevant investment experience from this wave of bull and bear conversion cycle of medicine and medical treatment, the most important thing in investment is to respect the objective market trend, many investment concepts read in the book, such as what long-term value investment, undervaluation theory, these are not worth mentioning in the face of the trend, and the letter book is not as good as no book.
Recently, someone is consulting me, how to allocate assets at the moment, my personal view is that in the current environment, it is difficult to get out of the bull market, not all bets on equity funds, but should allocate more high-quality fixed income funds, equity funds, hedge funds, CTA funds, etc. with low correlation with equity funds, and do a balanced portfolio allocation of large classes of assets.
For example, I made a portfolio for an investor, allocating a high-quality fixed income fund, a high-quality CTA fund, and a high-quality hedge fund.
The largest drawdown of fixed income funds since 2014 is -2.62%, annualized 10%, the largest drawdown of hedge funds since 2017 is -12.95%, annualized 28.82%, the maximum drawdown of CTA funds is -22.47%, annualized 40%, the positions of the three funds are evenly distributed, and the largest drawdown of the fund portfolio allocated is only -3.36%, with an annualized 27.2%, which is the effect of different major fund allocations.
Today's equity-debt spread is 5.89%, from historical data to see that the equity-debt spread fell below 3%, the stock market is likely to mean the top, the equity-debt spread rose to more than 6%, meaning it is likely to be the bottom.
An overview of the latest valuations of some of the indices
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