European Commission President von der Leyen infographic. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
On September 2, local time, Gazprom announced the "indefinite" closure of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Europe on the grounds of "main turbine leakage", followed by a series of-for-tat tough speeches between Russia and Europe.
The Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline was completed in 2011 and runs from Vyborg in Russia in the east to Germany via the baltic seabed. In a statement issued on the same day, Gazprom said that due to the damage to the last turbine of the compressor station, Nord Stream 1 had been forced to completely stop operations.
On the same day, European Commission President von der Leyen called for a ceiling on the price of russian pipeline natural gas, and the German Ministry of Economy and Climate Protection also issued a statement saying that the current natural gas market situation is very tight, but Germany's natural gas supply is still guaranteed.
On September 3, the European Commission's economic commissioner Gentiloni also said that based on storage capacity and energy-saving measures, the EU has been "fully prepared" for a comprehensive gas outage in Russia.
Despite the pledges of all parties in the EU, under the long-term "path dependence", it is difficult to have a complete alternative to the energy shortage problem in Europe for the time being, and the complete outage of "Nord Stream 1" is undoubtedly worse. Therefore, the upcoming winter is not easy, which is inevitable for the EU.
This is the gazprom logo taken in Moscow, the capital of Russia, on April 28, 2022. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
This time, on the contrary, the West is the first to "attack"
In fact, since last autumn and winter, the "path dependence" on Russian gas has allowed the EU to survive a difficult winter. This year, the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict broke out, the European Union imposed several rounds of severe sanctions on Russia, and in Russia's countermeasures, energy has also become the main content.
In mid-June, Gazprom gradually reduced the amount of gas transported by Nord Stream 1 to Europe on the grounds of "turbine failure" and "limited turbine maintenance", and even closed the pipeline for 10 days in the name of "maintenance".
On August 31, Gazprom again announced "turbine oil spill overhaul", saying that it would resume operations from 1:00 GMT on September 2, but suddenly announced "indefinite closure" just a few hours before the resumption of operations.
This means that the "Nord Stream 1", which has 170 million cubic meters of gas transmission to Europe and Japan in normal years, is completely "out of gas" on russia's gas export main road to Russia. So far, as some energy experts have argued, "none of the gas pipelines from Russia to Europe are safe anymore."
Earlier, under the mediation of the personal visit of German Chancellor Scholz, who was bent on maintaining Russian gas procurement, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau insisted on returning the turbines sent by the Russian side for repair despite strong domestic opposition. But now it seems that this move has become futile.
In response, Siemens Energy, which provides services for turbines, said that leaks of this level should not hinder the operation of the pipeline. The National Security Councils of Europe and the United States have accused Russia of using natural gas as a "weapon against consumers."
But in fact, it is not only the Russian side that uses "energy weapons", but in this storm alone, the first to "attack" is the West.
Also earlier on September 2, the G7 finance minister agreed to impose a price cap on Russian oil exports. The measure is intended to allow Russia to export oil only at below-market prices. European Commission President von der Leyen also publicly stated on the same day that she firmly believes that it is necessary to impose a maximum price limit on Russian gas.
In 2021, Russia will supply 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe, accounting for 40% of Europe's gas consumption. Despite Russia's oil exports falling in June, the country's oil export revenue for the month was $20.4 billion, up 40 percent from the same period last year, according to the International Energy Agency.
Meanwhile, Russia still achieved a record net profit of $41.3 billion in the first half of this year, despite a 68% year-on-year decline in natural gas exports to Europe at the end of August. Because, at this time, the price of natural gas has risen to 10 times that of a year ago.
This reality has prompted Europe and the United States and other countries to try their best to prevent Russia from continuing to profit from energy exports, which has also triggered this round of "energy war".
This is a thermal power station photographed in Frankfurt, Germany, on October 8, 2021. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
Europe is doomed to be "not good" this winter
Why does the European Union, which relies heavily on Russian energy, now seem to be "not afraid"?
Many analysts have pointed out that the energy supply problem since last year has caused serious losses and great inconvenience to European countries on the one hand, and on the other hand, it has prompted European countries to take a series of countermeasures.
Especially since mid-June, a series of twists and turns in the "Nord Stream 1" have turned some countries and people who originally held hesitant and appeased views to become vigilant and tough, and many people in Europe have already made psychological expectations before the official "gas outage".
In June, the European Union passed a resolution requiring member states to increase their natural gas reserves to 80 percent of their capacity limits by November 1 for industry, heating, lighting and more this winter. Just on September 1, the European Union announced that it had achieved this goal ahead of schedule.
Germany, the EU powerhouse most dependent on Russia's energy, had to launch the second phase of the three-phase emergency gas program in July due to the two previous "gas outages" of Nord Stream 1, and called for the increase of its natural gas reserves to 85% of the capacity limit.
On September 2, the German gas regulator announced that Germany achieved a natural gas storage rate of 85.02%, exceeding the plan ahead of schedule.
Reducing the output of energy-consuming industries such as fertilizers and aluminum is also one of The European emergency measures. Ross Woolm, head of Germany's BDI industry association, said last week that industrial gas consumption in the EU's largest manufacturing country fell 21 percent year-on-year in July.
EU energy ministers agreed that all EU countries should voluntarily reduce their use of natural gas by 15% between August this year and March next year. The EU will also convene an emergency summit on 9 September to discuss energy.
In fact, european countries are responding, such as Germany and France planning to reduce winter heating temperatures for public buildings, while Italy plans to end heating early and reduce street lighting by 40%.
In terms of energy substitution, the United Kingdom, Ireland and other countries in the north of Europe have reached energy cooperation agreements with Norway; The Eastern European country of Poland will open two new gas pipelines in September and October, the former transporting Norwegian gas into Poland through Germany and the latter connecting Poland and Slovakia.
Southern European countries will rely on the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline to Italy and the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline to Turkey for Azerbaijani gas; Spain wants to restart the shelved North African gas pipeline project; The United States has also said it could supply 150 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas to Europe this year.
In addition, the EU has had to suspend the goal of eliminating coal power that it has been pursuing. Nuclear, hydropower, renewables, coal, etc., are currently available in the EU.
Of course, these can also be affected by unexpected factors, such as the low water level caused by the high temperature in Europe this summer, which affects hydropower, and the European nuclear power plants are generally facing the dilemma of aging, decommissioning and phasing out.
If Russia's energy supply is completely "cut off", no matter what alternatives are adopted, the EU is doomed to have a bad winter this winter, and Europe is bound to pay a high price in the short term.
Everything is as Spain's Minister of Ecological Transition Ribera put it, "the question is to what extent we think it's affordable".
Written by / Tao Short Room (Columnist)
Editor / He Rui
Proofreading / Chen Diyan