Gazprom (GAZ) said on September 2 that the Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline will completely stop gas transmission until troubleshooting due to the discovery of multiple equipment failures. Gazprom has suspended the supply of natural gas to the Main French energy supplier Angie Group since the 1st.
△ August 30, local time, Lubmin, northeast Germany, a facility for receiving and distributing natural gas.
Analysts pointed out that this situation has made the prospects of European countries that are already facing a "gas shortage" worrying, and natural gas prices may continue to rise, pushing up inflation, dragging down the economy, and exacerbating the people's livelihood dilemma.
Gas prices soar, recession worries are in full swing
The escalation of the Russian-European "fighting gas" game and the increased uncertainty in the European energy market will lead to the restructuring of the supply and demand structure of the global energy market. Despite Recent Efforts by Europe to diversify its sources of natural gas imports and to "cut corners" on natural gas consumption, the results have been minimal. For Europe, where gas prices have soared to historic highs, Russia's suspension of gas transmissions will undoubtedly exacerbate Europe's energy crisis and increase market fears of an EU recession.
Fitch Ratings believes that due to the lack of short-term alternatives, there is a possibility of a recession in Europe due to the impact of russian gas import disruptions, and businesses will be greatly affected by rising energy costs. Fitch ratings predict that a blanket shutdown of Pipeline Gas exports to Europe could lead to a recession in the European economy starting in the second half of the year, with countries such as Germany and Italy contracting in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023.
French Minister of Economy and Finance Le Maire said on the 1st that if Russia's natural gas supply is completely cut off, French economic growth may face major challenges. Natural gas will be one of the decisive factors for France's economic growth in 2023.
The supply of natural gas for industrial operations in many countries will be affected, most notably in Germany. If large-scale industrial gas consumption is affected, the relevant industries may come to a standstill, which will directly drag the EU economy to the brink of recession.
According to a Reuters survey of economists conducted from August 29 to September 1, the German economy may shrink for three consecutive quarters starting this quarter. If the German economy falls into recession, it will have a knock-on effect across Europe.
Inflation is high, and the people's livelihood is in short supply
Preliminary statistics released by Eurostat on August 31 show that energy and food prices in the euro area continued to soar, with inflation reaching 9.1% per annum in August, beating market expectations and hitting a record high. The continued rise in core inflation in the euro area highlights the continued spread of price pressures.
Economists expect inflation in the eurozone to have not yet peaked as Russia suspends gas supplies to Europe.
The French government previously froze the price of natural gas at october 2021 until the end of the year. However, French Prime Minister Borné recently said that the government cannot freeze prices forever. Many media are worried that at the beginning of next year, French energy prices may rise sharply, which will push up inflation and increase the risk of social unrest.
A few days ago, a survey showed that the cost of living has become the most concerned issue for Europeans in the four countries surveyed, France, Germany, Poland and the United Kingdom. Many Europeans fear that high inflation caused by the current energy crisis could spark social unrest, protests and strikes.
It is difficult to find the source of gas The worry of "outage" is difficult to understand
EU gas storage facilities currently meet their 80% gas storage target, and if storage facilities are filled to the maximum, it is possible to reduce the risk of the current energy crisis. But at a time when Russian gas supply is disrupted and other alternative gas sources cannot be quickly compensated, this winter's weather will be the key to Europe's energy crisis.
Jacob Mandel, a senior commodities assistant at a British consultancy, said the reserves could be guaranteed for about three months of use at best if the EU fully filled its gas storage facilities before winter. But if gas imports can't keep up, the threat of a gas shortage in Europe remains, and low-temperature weather such as cold snaps could quickly deplete inventories.
△ On September 1, local time, the public walked between the Brandenburg Gate, one of the most important landmarks in Berlin, Germany, which was the first day of Germany's implementation of the new national energy conservation bill.
Europe's huge gas shortfall has led to the need to seek new LNG suppliers from the international market, disrupting the original gas supply and demand structure, and gas prices are rising.
For Europe itself, receiving LNG requires specific terminal projects, which are difficult to complete in the short term. Norway, Europe's second-largest gas supplier, has been taking steps to increase gas supply after the Ukraine crisis erupted, but its speed of filling the European gas gap is very limited. So whether it's supply or reception, it's not easy for Europe to try to make up for the huge lack of Russian gas by replacing gas sources.
Agat de Mare, head of global forecasting at the Economist Intelligence Unit, expects Europe to have a very difficult winter this year, will experience at least two years of adjustment periods, and will also face economic problems caused by factors such as energy shortages.
Source: CCTV News