The Paper's reporter Liu Dong
40 years ago, when Zou Ji was still in school at Tsinghua University, the happiest time every winter was to take the student CARD to the university gymnasium after class to get skates, and go with his classmates to the thick ice lake near the school to "skate wild ice".
Zou Ji. Image from the web
All this has long been a difficult memory to recall. "Nowadays, every year when Beijing starts heating, the lake water has not yet frozen, and when it comes to the winter vacation, the ice is only a thin layer, and it is impossible to slide at all." Zou Ji said. What does this mean? From my personal experience, global temperatures have indeed risen. ”
Zou Ji has been dealing with climate change since 1997. From 2000 to 2009 and 2012-2015, he was a member of the Chinese government delegation to the UN climate negotiations, particularly in the Paris Climate Agreement. He was the Deputy Director of the National Center for Climate Strategy and International Cooperation (NCSC) in China, and the Deputy Dean of the School of Environment at Chinese Min University. Today, he is CEO and President of the Nonprofit Energy Foundation in China.
Although the trend of global climate change has long been predicted, watching the "prediction" come true step by step in real life still makes Zou Ji feel a little heavy. "What people used to think was unlikely is happening little by little, and the frequency range of things happening is expanding." He told the www.thepaper.cn.
A line from the movie The Wandering Earth seems to remind us, "At first, no one cared about this disaster, it was just a wildfire, a drought, the extinction of a species, until the disaster was relevant to everyone." ”
Record extreme weather this summer
This summer, record-breaking heat and drought swept across many parts of the globe, from Europe to Africa, from Asia to North America.
On August 24, 2022, local time, Green Park, London, England, under the pressure of heat and lack of rain, the early leaves of trees fell. Visual China figure
On August 17, 2022, local time, Velence, Hungary, aerial photography of the dry riverbed of Lake Velence. Visual China figure
On August 3, 2022, local time, in Paris, France, people walked on the dry ares square in front of the Eiffel Tower. Visual China figure
In June, Japan recorded its worst heat wave since the 1870s. In mid-July, britain's extreme heat broke record highs in history, soaring above 40 degrees Celsius for the first time. Not only the high temperatures, Europe has also experienced its worst drought in 500 years; For the third consecutive year of low rainfall in the "Horn of Africa" region of East Africa, millions of people face severe food famine. For the second consecutive year, the federal government announced restrictions on reducing water withdrawals from rivers in seven western states.
"I believe that many people will feel the same way this year, not only china is not hot, Europe, the United States is also very hot, over the years, the continuous heat has become more and more." Zou Ji said, "If anyone is still doubting global warming, then I think this is the best example, of course, to understand global climate change can not be said to be because this year is very hot is global warming, but should look at the frequency of such extreme events from a longer time scale." ”
Zou Ji has been involved in the work of climate change for more than 20 years, and his feelings are: from the beginning when he felt that the evidence was not sufficient and not obvious, to today's clear perception of climate change, from observing scientific facts to the scientific truth behind the discovery, step by step more and more clear. "My worry is that the process is taking on an accelerated state, and the bigger worry is going into an irreversible process, which is more frightening."
Uncertainty is the biggest challenge
In Zou Ji's view, the extreme weather events that occurred around the world this year were not unexpected, but such a serious high temperature and drought and the resulting lack of electricity made him feel "surprised".
"From the supply side, this crisis shows that our energy system is still fragile in the local area, and second, the demand side is hot, people's air conditioning drought-resistant electricity consumption is soaring, demand is soaring, and supply is insufficient, there will be contradictions, exposing our ability to cope with extreme weather events is not enough." Zou Ji analyzed.
Whether the heat wave sweeping the world this summer can change people's views on the urgency of responding to climate change, causing reflection and action, Zou Ji said that he believes that this objectively plays a role in science popularization, but also frankly said: "People sometimes get better scars and forget the pain, and in the winter they may forget about it." In addition, I worry that anti-intellectualism around the world ignores scientific facts, lacks scientific literacy, and is unwilling to face the crisis and make changes. ”
Zou Ji said he is more worried that the climate crisis will encounter obstacles from existing interest groups in promoting energy transformation.
"If a person is engaged in fossil energy, has a good position in this industry, the situation is not bad, it is also very profitable, very authoritative, and now it is necessary to transform, these industries are slowly declining, and it is more difficult for new industries to enter, then he is not willing to undergo this change, including hesitation in decision-making, which will cause people not to take action." But the way to eventually achieve energy security is to move towards renewable energy through energy restructuring. ”
The impact of extreme weather is not simply a change of perception.
On July 24, 2022, local time, in New York, USA, children played in the fountain of Domino Park in Brooklyn to cool down, behind them was the Manhattan skyline. According to the National Weather Service, before 8 p.m. on July 24, all five districts of New York City were under a high temperature warning state. Visual China Infographic
On August 12, 2021, local time, Madrid, Spain ushered in the hot weather, and the animals in the Madrid Zoo were photographed. Visual China figure
On July 19, 2022, local time, in Berlin, Germany, people paddled on the River Spree and passed by the Bedsiff Swimming Pool. Visual China Infographic
Yuan Jiahai, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of North China Electric Power University, told the surging news that the challenges brought by complex disasters such as high temperature, drought, wildfire and lack of electricity in this year's situation are enormous. In contrast, the lack of electricity is only the smallest and relatively easy to manage, and the more intractable is the problem of water, which triggers a chain reaction such as food security.
"We have always said in the past that because of climate change, we must accelerate the energy transition, mainly from the perspective of mitigation, and develop more wind, photovoltaic and hydro renewable energy; Another angle is adaptation, which now seems to be too underconsiderate. Yuan Jiahai said.
Liu Junyan, head of Greenpeace's climate change project, pointed out from the perspective of urban risk response that one of the biggest challenges brought about by climate change is uncertainty.
"The extreme impacts of climate change and the risk of catastrophic events mean that we have probabilities that we can predict, and in the past we said that such events are once in ten years and once in fifty years, but now they can occur every year, and its probability is not the probability we previously estimated." This uncertainty, which means we don't know what else to expect, goes beyond the estimates of climate models and our previous experience of coping, which is the biggest challenge. Liu Junyan said.
Liu Junyan pointed out that compared with such an obvious disaster as extreme precipitation, the systemic risks caused by sustained extreme heat waves have not received enough attention. For example, what does 70 days of sustained heat mean for society as a whole? A series of "chain reaction" complex climate disasters such as the health crisis caused by high temperatures, power shortages, wildfire crises, and food supply security have been exposed in this climate crisis that has swept the world.
"This year there has been a lot of talk about the health risks to the human body, in fact, when the high temperature becomes a systemic crisis, each of us is under this major impact, everyone is likely to become a victim, there is no way to distinguish who is vulnerable." Liu Junyan said.
In particular, cities and surrounding areas with highly concentrated populations, large dependence on external resources, and increasingly fragile ecological environments will face more severe systemic risks brought about by climate change. "For cities, especially these big cities, all the resources are dependent on external input, and it may be more vulnerable, because we know that the population of the city is very concentrated, and its energy consumption and water consumption are very large." Liu Junyan said.
Prepare for the next crisis
One of the most important questions left for countries by this summer's global climate crisis is: What if there is such a climate disaster again? Or how do you prepare for the next upcoming climate crisis?
On July 21, 2019, local time, Amendoa, central Portugal, a wildfire broke out in the local area, and the villagers were evacuated urgently. Visual China Infographic
On July 19, 2022, local time, in Guadalajara, Spain, a helicopter was extinguishing the fire. Visual China Infographic
Zou Ji believes that in order to systematically solve the energy problem under the climate crisis, we must first establish a "multi-energy complementary" system; The second is to strengthen the ability of power grid dispatch; The third is energy storage.
"If it is hourly, chemical energy storage can be solved, if it is more than ten hours, solar thermal power generation, and even pumped storage; How to solve the seasonal level? This requires continued to tap the potential in terms of energy storage, not to mention new energy storage, even if the existing reservoir is used, it can increase a lot of energy storage. Zou Ji said.
Liu Junyan introduced that in Europe, Germany has a set of flood disaster response measures, including the early stage will first find out which low-lying areas are more affected, when a specific level of early warning signal is released, how to mobilize people in cities, low-lying areas, especially vulnerable areas, how to deal with the stormwater management system, how to coordinate different water conservancy departments, including the coordinated operation between various departments of the city, there is a relatively complete mechanism.
In response to the heat wave, the government of Athens, Greece, appointed the first "Chief High Temperature Officer" in Europe in 2021 to meet the severe climate challenge and proposed three strategies: First, as a long-term goal of urban development, Athens needs to work on improving greening and infrastructure, afforestation, parks, and promoting the city's hydrological environment in the future. Second, as a short-term goal, municipalities should give priority to addressing the living conditions of socially disadvantaged groups, such as assisting them in installing air-conditioning equipment to withstand the summer heat. Third, effective publicity should be used to promote environmental awareness among the public and policy makers, so that people can truly understand the dangers of the sweltering heat.
This year, for the first time, the Spanish government has named high temperature weather according to hurricanes (typhoons), and scientists have called for further grading so that the public can intuitively understand the harm caused by different levels of heat to the human body, and this measure is also conducive to the corresponding response measures of government departments.
Liu Junyan believes that the biggest challenge of global climate change is that the scale of the crisis is too large, and secondly, the time window left for us to cope is too short. "These disasters are still occurring at a temperature increase of 1.1 degrees Celsius, so what we urgently need in slowing down greenhouse gas emissions is a fundamental and systematic transformation, and the core is that the national policy will must be fast enough and strong enough." She said.
In terms of adaptation, in the short term, it is necessary to strengthen the timely early warning of disasters and corresponding measures. When the meteorological department issues an early warning, how each city and province and each department work together to maximize the reduction of disaster losses is the key to short-term response. In the long run, infrastructure and urban management, planning and design are the focus of attention, and the two need to be combined.
"How can we achieve these major transformations and changes? It is up to every member of the public to speak out of their urgent will for future security and sustainable development, which is the first thing the public can do. Liu Junyan said.
"I think the saddest thing is to wait for a disastrous event to reflect, why did so many things happen before, and everyone doesn't remember?" How to keep everyone from forgetting this summer is perhaps the most valuable lesson we can learn from this crisis. She said.
Editor-in-Charge: Zhang Wuwei Photo Editor: Zhu Weihui
Proofreader: Yan Zhang