Just after the hot summer, Europe is starting to worry about the coming winter again.
Due to the severe "gas shortage" caused by sanctions against Russia, the trading price of European natural gas futures has hit a new high in the past six months in recent days.
While news of faster-than-expected growth in German gas reserves has led to a rare pullback in European gas prices, there are indications that this temporary phenomenon is not worth overly optimistic.
Gas Intelligence Network: Uniper, Germany's largest importer of Russian gas, recently asked the government to provide it with an additional 4 billion euros of credit to help it withstand fluctuations in the energy market. The German government also acknowledged in a new report that it does not rule out the possibility of further deterioration of the gas shortage.
Bloomberg analysis believes that even if Germany's gas storage can meet the standard on time, it will not be able to support for three months in the case of a complete cut off of supply in Russia.
Screenshot of Bloomberg's report
The United States: From a net importer of natural gas to the largest exporter
As Europe's largest economy and gas consumer, Germany's woes largely reflect the whole picture of Europe.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the price of gas in Europe has increased several times.
But the European Union, which is struggling to find other sources of supply to replace Russian gas in the short term, has gritted its teeth and reached a natural gas consumption reduction agreement, which began to be implemented on August 1.
Bloomberg: The "gas reduction" agreement requires EU countries to take "voluntary measures" to reduce natural gas demand by 15% this winter. If there is a shortage of natural gas supply at that time, the EU will take mandatory measures to reduce the demand for natural gas.
The EU dared to take such a big risk because US President Joe Biden promised to ship an additional 15 billion cubic meters of U.S.-made liquefied natural gas to the EU during his visit to the EU in March in exchange for the EU's embargo on Russian energy along with the United States.
With this "commitment", the United States pushed Europe into the fire pit through sanctions against Russia, and at the same time took the opportunity to seize control of Europe's energy security into its own hands.
According to recent data released by the International Gas Information Association, the United States became the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the first half of this year, with 68% of LNG exported to Europe, due to increased supply to Europe in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Screenshot of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) website report
Due to costs such as extraction and transportation, U.S. LNG is inherently much more expensive than Russian natural gas, which is close to Europe's doorstep and can be easily transported through pipelines. Now that the euro has depreciated against the dollar to parity, it is conceivable how much more Europe will have to spend as an LNG importer.
In fact, the U.S. government's calculations have already allowed its own LNG producers and exporters to take advantage of the EU's energy anxieties.
Some energy experts pointed out that filling an LNG carrier in the United States at a cost of $60 million can sell for $275 million to Europe, and a single export can make more than $200 million in profits.
According to Business Insider: Energy analysis firm Vortexa shows that about 60 percent of U.S. LNG (115,000 tons per day) was exported to Europe in August, compared with just 19 percent in the same period last year.
Some US media commented that the United States was a net importer of natural gas a few years ago, and now it has become the largest exporter; Europe, on the other hand, is mired in an energy crisis. America's strength stands in stark contrast to Europe's fragility.
Business Insider website: In response to winter energy demand, many European countries are racking their brains. Even Germany, which had planned to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2038, has reactivated some of its coal-fired power plants that have been shut down for backup, dealing a heavy blow to the European Union, which has always been ambitious in tackling climate change.
Europe: It's stupid to block bullets for the United States
The continued shortage has exacerbated the already unoptimistic European economic situation.
The latest data released by Eurostat showed that inflation in the euro area hit a new high of 9.1% in August, with high energy prices as the main driver.
Screenshot of a CNBC report
Preliminary data released by the German Federal Statistical Office shows that inflation rose to 7.9% in August, breaking through 7% for six consecutive months.
The Bundesbank previously issued a report saying that due to the ongoing energy crisis, the German inflation rate is expected to reach around 10% in the autumn, and the possibility of a contraction in the German economy this winter is rising.
Screenshot of the "EU Observer" website report
The Us "Forbes" magazine pointed out that the European stock market has fallen by 22% so far this year, performing nearly 10 basis points worse than the United States, which is the worst in the Western world. The reason for this is that sanctions on Russian energy have hurt the European economy the most.
There are only two possibilities in front of Europe: either a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire or Europe is plunged into greater despair this winter. At that point, Europe, which has no choice but to ease sanctions, remains "the third world in the Western economy" until it does so.
Screenshot of a report on the Forbes magazine website
This "cynicism" is not without a proper reflection of the pain of Europe's loss of strategic autonomy.
In the view of the US "Foreign Policy" magazine, the United States has embargoed Russian energy together with Europe, and at the same time opposed European-Russian cooperation on the Nord Stream-2 natural gas pipeline project, which stems from the self-interested strategy of the United States to increase energy exports to Europe.
But in fact, the United States liquefied natural gas can not replace the huge amount of Russian gas, "can only play the role of a Band-Aid." If Europe finds a more reliable source of supply, the recurring energy crisis will cost Europe significant environmental and political costs.
Screenshot of a report on the foreign policy magazine website
Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán, who has repeatedly criticized the EU's sanctions policy, recently reiterated that the US and Western sanctions against Russia are failing, but they have had a counter-effect on the EU itself and seriously damaged the economies of European countries.
Screenshot of the report on the Qatar Al Jazeera website (titled Orban)
According to Hungarian Foreign Minister Sialdó in a speech a few days ago, the EU countries that oppose sanctions against Russia are "not only Hungary."
Even Lithuania, a member of the European Union, which is the most energetic in "relying on the United States and opposing Russia," is also deeply frustrated by the frequent cracks within the EU over sanctions against Russia.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landz Bergis admitted in a recent interview that the EU's interest in increasing sanctions against Russia has dried up.
In a recent interview with a reporter, Alice Weidel, a member of the German Bundestag, bluntly said that as a country that is highly dependent on energy imports, Germany's choice to sanction Russia at any cost is highly worrying. "We should not sacrifice our own interests and be led by the nose by the United States."
Alice Weidell
"Europeans and Ukrainians live on the same continent and are direct neighbors; The United States on the other side of the Atlantic is completely different from the geopolitical situation in Europe. So Europe's approach of blocking bullets for the United States is too stupid. ”
Source 丨Global Information Broadcast "Global Deep Observation"
Source: Global News+