On August 19, as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was in a stalemate, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Kazakh President Tokayev in sochi, a resort on the shores of the Black Sea, injecting some certainty into Russia-Kazakhstan relations that have seemed uncertain for some time. Meanwhile, from August 10 to 20, the United States held a joint military exercise called "Zone-2022" with six countries, including Mongolia, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. All indications are that the rivalry between the great powers in Central Asia is in full swing.
Status and situation
As a geopolitical concept, "Central Asia" was first proposed by the German geographer Alexander von Humboldt in 1843, mainly referring to the landlocked region of central Asia located in the middle of Russia, China, India, Iran, Pakistan and other large or regional powers. Central Asia in the narrow sense generally refers to the five countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan that separated from the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Central Asia in the broad sense sometimes includes neighboring countries such as Afghanistan.
Geographically, Central Asia is at the junction of Eurasia, which is the key to eurasian transportation, and is a necessary place for eastbound and westward and southbound and northbound. In addition, the oil reserves in the Caspian Sea in the western coast of Central Asia, Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region have about 200 billion barrels, accounting for about a quarter of the world's oil reserves, and proven natural gas reserves of 7.9 trillion cubic meters, known as the "second Middle East". Central Asia is also rich in cash crops such as cereals and cotton, which makes The geopolitical status and role of Central Asia more prominent. After the end of the Cold War, Central Asia was of great significance as an important strategic buffer zone.
During the Cold War, all five Central Asian countries were Republics of the Soviet Union, and even if there were contradictions and problems, it was an internal affair of the Soviet Union. At the end of 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed, and the five Central Asian countries established their own independent states. This has complicated the internal contradictions in Central Asia and relations with neighboring and extraterritorial countries.
The main ethnic groups in Central Asia include kazakhs, Uzbeks, Kyrgyz, Tajiks, and Russians. The collapse of the Soviet Union led to a constant dispute over the demarcation of the border between the five Central Asian countries that originally belonged to the Soviet Union. The emergence of such problems and the intensification of contradictions have even led to confrontation. In the 10 years from 2010 to 2019, there were as many as 155 border conflicts between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
The influence exerted by extraterritorial powers on regional countries has also led to disturbances and turmoil in regional countries. In August 2021, the United States withdrew its troops from Afghanistan, ending a 20-year war in Afghanistan, which became an unprecedented major event in Central Asia. The Taliban have made a comeback in Afghanistan, and neighboring Central Asian countries such as Turkmenistan and Tajikistan have passively strengthened the defense of border areas. Since the Vice President of the U.S.-backed Afghan government, Saleh, is ethnic Tajik, led the Afghan Tajiks to resist after the Taliban returned to power, and finally retreated into Tajikistan because of the failure of resistance. Other former Afghan government forces have fled en masse to neighbouring countries such as Uzbekistan and Iran, leading to ongoing disputes between the countries involved.
The game of great powers
Because of its important geostrategic position, Central Asia has become a place of competition for great powers such as the United States and Russia. When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, then-US National Security Adviser Brzezinski shouted happily: "This 'bear' has finally fallen into it." Sure enough, the Soviet Union lost troops in Afghanistan and achieved nothing, and less than two years after it withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989, the Soviet Union declared its disintegration. But Brzezinski certainly did not expect that just 10 years later, the United States would fall into the same pit because of 9/11. In the 20-year war in Afghanistan, the United States spent two trillion US dollars, and the US military followed in the footsteps of the Soviet army after paying huge casualties, and withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021.
In order to carry out the war in Afghanistan, the United States, in the name of "joint counter-terrorism", has set up military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan in central Asia to provide logistical support for the OPERATIONS of the US military in Afghanistan. However, with the overwhelming success of the U.S. military in Afghanistan, bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan gradually lost importance, and the U.S. military closed military bases in 2005 and 2014, respectively.
Due to the huge cost of the US occupation in Afghanistan but the prospect of victory has never been seen, the US government considered withdrawing troops from Afghanistan later in the Trump administration. In February 2020, US Secretary of State Pompeo visited Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and other four countries to launch the "New Central Asia Strategy of the United States" in a high-profile manner, and tried to weaken Russia's influence in Central Asia. In June of the same year, U.S. Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Zarmei Khalilzad, arrived in Almaty, Kazakhstan's largest city, declaring that "the United States is holding talks with Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, to discuss the possibility of U.S. military capabilities in the region after its withdrawal from Afghanistan." However, with the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in August 2021, the United States lost its foothold in Central Asia.
But the United States is not content to lose control and influence over Central Asia. When the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out on February 24 this year, the United States immediately found the reason for infiltration in Central Asia. On March 1, a video conference between the U.S. and five central Asian foreign ministers under the leadership of the United States was held, and U.S. Secretary of State Blinken proposed the possibility of the return of U.S. military bases or transit bases to Central Asia on the basis of the Russian threat. In this regard, the five Central Asian countries have clearly expressed their neutral position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and expressed "confusion and uneasiness" about Blinken's "proposal."
From August 10 to 20, the United States held a "Region-2022" joint military exercise with Mongolia, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. The U.S. Central Command, which is specifically responsible for organizing the exercises, said the "Regional-2022" joint military exercises are aimed at strengthening "regional security and stability" and addressing the threat of "terrorism" and "weapons of mass destruction." This move took full advantage of Russia's lack of time to take care of Central Asia, and to some extent achieved the return of US troops to Central Asia.
The five Central Asian countries originally belonged to the Soviet Union, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the five countries became Russia's neighbors and flanks in Asia. At present, there are two main Russian military bases in Central Asia: one is the 201st base in Tajikistan, where the 201st Motorized Infantry Division of the Russian Army is stationed; The other is the 999 Air Base in Kyrgyzstan, where the Russian 14th Air Force is stationed and equipped with Su-25SM attack aircraft and Mi-8 helicopters. In order to strengthen the ability to coordinate operations with the armed forces of the host country, the Russian garrison regularly or irregularly conducts routine military exercises with the armies of the host country.
In addition to the direct presence of troops, another mechanism for Russia to strengthen its influence in the Central Asian region is the CSA. On May 15, 1992, the leaders of six countries separated from the Soviet Union, namely Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Armenia, signed the Collective Security Treaty in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, and established the Collective Security Organization. On January 1 of this year, Kazakh President Tokayev declared a national emergency and asked CSA to help Kazakhstan respond after unrest over rising LNG prices. On January 7, CGIA dispatched Russian airborne troops to quickly quell the unrest and stabilize the situation in Kazakhstan.
Possible developments
Both the British geopolitician Mackinder and the contemporary American geostrategists Brzezinski and Kissinger regard Eurasia as the key and key point of global geopolitics. In today's world, the five Central Asian countries and their neighboring countries almost include the so-called "chess players" and the main members of the "pivot countries" in the geopolitical game of eurasia, which determines that Central Asia cannot stay out of the great power game.
First, the interdependence between Russia and the countries of Central Asia will persist for a long time. Central Asia is an indispensable link in Russia's national interests and security, both in terms of its historical and cultural interests as a Former Soviet Republic and in terms of its actual geopolitical interests. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia's relations with the United States and Western countries have become more tense. The more such a situation arises, the more russia needs to ensure stable relations and border security with Asian countries, especially the five Central Asian countries.
For the five Central Asian countries, there are constant links with Russia in terms of culture, history, geography, etc., and in terms of economic development and practical interests, the five Central Asian countries also have a certain dependence on Russia. For example, the level of economic development in the five Central Asian countries is not high, and a large number of young people regard the pursuit of development in Russia as the future, and the money remitted from Russia has even become an important source of funds for these countries. At the same time, Russia also has close trade relations and economic complementarities with Central Asian countries.
This determines the relationship between Russia and the Central Asian countries, which may be adjusted according to changes in the global situation and Russia's global status. Overall, however, the interdependence between them will persist for a long time.
Second, the United States and the West will strengthen their influence in Central Asia. The United States and the West have taken the opportunity of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to consume Russia's national strength and international influence in a large amount at the expense of Ukraine, which has also become an opportunity for the United States and the West to strengthen their influence in Central Asia. The U.S.-led "Zone-2022" joint military exercise covers Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, which objectively shows that the penetration of extraterritorial forces into Central Asia is deepening.
Third, it is difficult to form a dominant regional power. Among the five Central Asian countries, only Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have a population of tens of millions, Tajikistan has a population of nearly 10 million, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan have a population of one million, and they are all landlocked countries, and the level of economic and social development is not high, so their own strength is very limited. The infiltration and intervention of major powers mainly focus on the self-interest of major powers. In the global strategy of the United States, the emergence of a dominant power in any region is regarded as a threat to US hegemony, this is true in the Asia-Pacific region, this is true in Europe, and it is undoubtedly the same in Central Asia, which makes it difficult for a regionally dominant country to emerge in Central Asia.
(Author Affilications:College of Information and Communication, National University of Defense Technology)
Wu Minwen
Source: China Youth Daily