Written by | Huang Yun
Edited by | Fang Ting
Source | Kryptonian Institute
"Di Si eats box lunches every day, and your taste buds haven't opened yet."
"I don't know the difference between white truffles and black truffles, don't talk to me about the taste."
These words were said by Meng Xing, the founder of Diaoye Beef Brisket, in 2014, when the establishment of Diaoye Beef Brisket Restaurant was almost two years old. Equivalent to saying, 5 million to buy the Star Ye "God Eater" prototype stew beef brisket secret recipe, did not eat 150 pieces of brisket on a plate of brisket to taste, not the fault of the restaurant, it is your fault.
Meng Xing, the founder of Carved Beef Brisket
Just like you take a knife to shoot garlic, garlic is not broken, the knife is broken, not Zhang Xiaoquan's fault, but also your fault.
It's the fault of poverty.
But the same routine, the harvest of The Eagle is that 8 years ago, it obtained 60 million financing and 400 million yuan valuation with two stores. However, 8 years later, Zhang Xiaoquan and Zhong Xuegao reaped the continuous pickpocketing and group ridicule on the Internet.
In the end, is the brand's means clumsy? Or is it harder for consumers to bring this year? From the rise to the development to the peak of new consumption, is it now coming to an end?
Today, we will take a look at the development routine of new consumer brands.
2011-2015, the rise of the first generation of Internet celebrities,
"Routines" take shape
Speaking of "new consumption", let's first talk about what it really is.
In government documents, new consumption is defined as follows: "new consumption behavior driven by new technologies such as digital technologies, new business models such as online and offline integration, and new consumer relationships based on social networks and new media."
A bit of a mouthful? Let's look at what investment institutions say.
Black Ant Capital's definition of new consumption is as follows: "New consumption is to let consumers eat well and dress well, and their psychology and spirit also reach the desired state." ”
Black Ant Capital's definition of new consumption
Synthesizing the explanations on both sides, the translation is: the products may not be new, but the marketing methods must be new. In today's terms, it is traffic thinking, and new consumer brands must not only provide practical value, but also emotional value.
According to this standard, carved beef brisket must be regarded as the first generation of Internet celebrities in new consumption.
According to the founder Meng Xing, the story of DiaoYe began in 2011, he ate a bowl of nine beef briskets on the streets of Hong Kong, surprised, wanted to introduce the mainland, the result of the store opened a sky-high price to embarrass him, he was angry, turned around and found the "Hong Kong God of Food" Dai Long to buy the formula, launched his own brisket brand.
Typical of the cool text plot that you used to ignore me and ignore me, and then I let you climb high.
Why is this story from 2011? The previous year, in 2010, China's GDP surpassed Japan for the first time to become the world's second largest economy, and the following year, in 2012, consumption surpassed investment for the first time, with a contribution rate of 55% to become the first driving force for China's GDP growth.
Changes in China's GDP and consumption contribution ratio from 2010 to 2012
Behind this milestone, there are two more figures and one big thing.
The first figure, 68 percent, is the share of China's middle class in Urban Chinese households in 2012. In 2000, that number was only 4 per cent.
China's middle class made up China's urban households in 2012
The other, 77.4, is the Chinese mainland consumer confidence index given by the credit card giant Mastercard survey. The average score in the Asia-Pacific region that year was only 57.2 points.
Chinese mainland consumer confidence index
That big thing is that the WeChat circle of friends has officially launched, which has promoted some people to upgrade from the level of survival needs to the level of dignity needs.
What do these two numbers, plus this big thing, mean? People either already have money and want to spend it to prove themselves; Or firmly believe that you will definitely have money in the future, and want to prove yourself in advance.
As a result, a new round of consumption upgrades came, and first came to the catering industry. Why catering first? The seaweed in "Snail Dwelling" tells us the answer.
Diamonds, bags, and the suite, it's like a star in the sky, out of reach, and a Haagen-Dazs ice cream ball for $25 is equal to a week's lunch money, a distance that can be reached on tiptoes.
Huang Taiji pancakes, which opened in 2012, Carved Beef Brisket, which opened in 2013, and West Young Master Meat Sandwich Bun, which opened in 2014, are all representatives of the "Häagen-Dazs" in the new era.
Huang Taiji raised the price of pancakes to 20 yuan, behind which was the alternative satisfaction of Mercedes-Benz luxury cars to deliver takeaways, making people gradually forget the simplicity of 5 yuan for roadside stalls; Not to mention the carved beef brisket, 150 yuan of beef brisket cover rice, let you and Gao Yuanyuan Get the same service, is not every point worth it?
I don't know what readers and friends think, but obviously, consumers and investors in those years felt that it was worth it.
Huang Taiji sold 7 million yuan of pancakes in the first year, and received millions of angel round financing from the entrepreneurial workshop the following year. Young Master Xi was even more powerful, achieving profitability in the first month, and in the second month, he obtained a round of financing of 10 million yuan from Qingkong Kechuang, which made many new consumer brands now unattainable.
These three pioneers have created a successful template of "explosive style + storytelling + online diversion". There are thousands of new consumer brands in the back wave, each of which is walking on the road that the predecessors have stepped out.
In 2016-2019, the new consumer brand houlang regimental battle
However, as Meng Bing, the founder of the Western Young Master, later said: "First fast is not fast."
The same story, the first time to tell the earth to move, the second time to shock people's hearts, to tell the third time, no one likes to listen. In 2016, Huang Taijichuan's financing failure was on the verge of closure, and the carved beef brisket closed on a large scale, leaving only the west young master still insisting.
But it doesn't matter, a new consumer brand has fallen, and thousands of new consumer brands have stood up again. Because, at this time, consumers' wallets are still bulging.
Also use a few data to take you back to the changes in consumer sentiment in 2016.
First, in 2015, according to Credit Suisse's definition, the number of middle-class people in China exceeded 100 million.
The number of middle-class people in The United States and China
Second, the McKinsey Global Survey shows that 55% of Chinese respondents believe their income will grow significantly over the next five years.
What respondents expect from different countries for income growth
At that time, many young friends thought that we would definitely have money in the future, and as for how to have money, let's talk about it.
The third key indicator, more than 3.2 billion transactions using Huabei payments, increased by 344% sequentially.
The number of transactions paid using Huabei has increased
Huabei, who "opens in one second and has a maximum credit limit of 50,000 yuan", has increased the consumption power of the middle and low-income consumer groups who originally spent less than 1,000 yuan per month by 50%.
Consumer sentiment is well underpinned, and as in 2012, new traffic channels have also come to boost. This is the short video platform, next to which there is a small book that is good at planting grass.
The most important thing is that live e-commerce is coming.
At one time, there was such a formula in the industry: 5,000 grass articles in a small book + 2,000 questions and answers + a live broadcast of a super anchor = a new consumer brand. These flow trains make getting from 0 to 1 simple and fast.
2018, when the anchor oligopoly situation was formed, also became the first year of the national tide.
A cup of new tea shops that sell for 20 or 30 yuan has become a new generation of punch points; New consumer brands in different subdivisions such as Yuanqi Forest, Zhong Xuegao, and Sandun and a Half were born one after another.
Finally, after this stage of accumulated development, from 2020 to the first half of 2021, new consumption ushered in a big outbreak.
In the first half of 2020-2021, accelerate the advancement and open the "hanging" outbreak
At this point in the time of the outbreak, does it feel a bit "counter-common sense"?
Regardless of the stage, whether the market is prosperous or not is always positively correlated with our optimistic expectations for future economic development and personal income. The outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020 is said to be a heavy blow to future economic expectations, and even if new consumption does not enter the ice age, it should be warned by low temperatures.
Quite simply, capital entered.
According to CBN Data statistics, a total of 550 institutions invested in 470 consumer projects in 2020, with an average project investment of up to 105 million yuan.
Statistics on the number of investments in consumption projects
What gives investors such a generous base? The answer is that money is not too "valuable" anymore. So everyone wants to grab some assets quickly.
The global environment generally releases water, creating an extremely relaxed macro environment. There is more money in circulation in the market, investment institutions have money in their hands, the last outlet TMT track fell into a bottleneck, coupled with favorable policies and expanded consumer demand, the new consumption track is simply timely and geographically advantageous and occupies all.
In that year and a half, as soon as there is a good project in the new consumption track, the investment institution is only faster than who pays, and for this reason, the requirements will even be relaxed during the due diligence, and the process can be saved.
Because even if it is a little slower, the good project will be robbed by others, and if you hesitate, it will simply go public.
In November 2020, the "First Share of New Consumer Beauty" Perfect Diary was listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The issue price was $10.5 per share, and three months later it rose to more than $20, doubling.
Statistics on investment and financing of consumer projects
This is not nothing, after a month, Bubble Mart was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the day of issuance soared, not to mention, soon the market value approached 150 billion Hong Kong dollars, crushing countless old consumer companies that have worked hard for 20 or 30 years.
The benchmark tree is up, and there is no capital that does not want to throw out the next perfect diary and bubble Mart. In the first half of 2021, the new consumption track was in full swing, with a total of 595 investment and financing, with a total financing of more than 120 billion yuan, which was higher than the total financing in 2020.
It is no exaggeration to say that this is an unprecedented highlight of consumption, and an unprecedented blow will soon come.
Since the second half of 2021, it has suddenly been cold and difficult to change
In February 2021, Perfect Diary (Yixian E-commerce) reached its all-time high of $25.47, and then braked sharply and turned around and went all the way downhill, and the market value had fallen by 60% in June.
Perfect Diary market cap falls
In June, Naisher's tea, which was listed, broke out immediately, and the market value evaporated by 66.4% in the following year. The secondary market failed to catch the bubble of high valuation in the primary market, and the dance music belonging to the new consumer investors came to an abrupt end.
The market value of Nesher's tea has fallen
In the whole second half of 2021, there were 483 investment and financing incidents in the new consumption track, with a total financing amount of 76.670 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 40% compared with the first half of the year.
The investment and financing of the new consumption track are cold
There is no work to do, many institutions simply cut the consumption track, and the consumer investors who were still full of ambition half a year ago are either unemployed in situ or forced to change careers.
The reasons for this extreme experience from peak to bottom are complex and diverse, but the root of everything is still the transformation of consumer emotions.
Do you remember when you stopped looking forward to 618 and Singles' Day? From what moment did you hear the shout of "buy it, buy it, buy it", and you will no longer be emotionally up, but quit in the upper right corner?
It seems that when consumers are not noticing, new consumption quietly cools down. It wasn't until the Zhong Xuegao incident in July that the public sentiment exploded that everyone realized that everyone was increasingly reluctant to spend money.
Without any reports or data to support it, if we think about it carefully, we will find that this change actually has a premonition, such as the sudden rise of The Honey Snow Ice City, but not just rely on a brainwashing advertising song of "Honey Snow Ice City Sweet Honey".
Some new consumer brands, keenly aware of this trend, are trying to turn around and respond.
At the beginning of this year, the three major tea brands comprehensively reduced product prices; The only surviving young master of the original internet red restaurant has long been low-key selling a meat sandwich bun for 7 yuan; Domestic beauty that was once out of the circle as a "big brand flat replacement" has begun to be "flattened" by more affordable products.
New consumer brands have reduced prices and transformed
But in fact, in the face of this cold wave, new consumer brands want to stay on the table, should not only have low prices, or "fake" low prices this way, any consumer brand wants to obtain sustainable development vitality, or need to return to the core of a consumer goods - the solid product force.
China still has the most potential consumer market, and consumers still have untapped consumer demand.
Otherwise, where did Luckin, which has just released its earnings report, get more than 10 million new trading customers in the second quarter of the worst of the epidemic?
However, the main theme of this session of consumers has become "rationality + cost performance + long-term value", no longer "emotional + emotional premium + instant satisfaction".
Therefore, new consumer brands, it is time to enter the next stage. Next, less on the broadcast rate, less fake low price, more product research and development costs.