At the critical moment, the United States unreasonably suppressed Chinese enterprises.
On August 24, according to the Global Times, according to the notice released online by the US Department of Commerce on the 23rd, the United States added 7 Chinese-related entities (mainly related to aerospace) to its export control list on the grounds of "national security" and foreign policy issues.
In the United States, however, it has once again encountered a "milestone event" of the epidemic. Recently, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released the latest data showing that Wyoming reported a confirmed case of monkeypox on the same day, the last "0 monkeypox case state" in the United States declared the fall, and the monkeypox virus has spread to all 50 states in the United States. At the same time, the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan has also sent red flags. On August 23, local time, the number of deaths due to the new crown virus in Japan was 340, the highest single-day history since the epidemic.
At present, the global currency market is not calm. Non-US currencies such as the euro, the british pound, the yen, and the Korean won have once again opened a round of "miserable mode". Among them, the depreciation of the South Korean won is particularly dangerous, and the exchange rate of the South Korean won against the US dollar continues to plummet, hitting a new low in 13 years. On Tuesday, South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue said that it would properly control exchange rate market risks through an emergency economic countermeasure meeting; The Korea Foreign Exchange Administration (SAFE) has issued an urgent verbal warning about speculative trading in the Won and will thoroughly check overseas markets for speculation.
The Saudi side warned that OPEC+ will cut crude oil production at any time to stabilize the market, and once Iranian oil returns to the market, OPEC+ may be inclined to further cut oil production. The warning sent international oil prices soaring, with WTI crude futures closing sharply higher at 3.74 percent and Brent crude futures breaching the $100 a barrel mark.
The United States "black hand" again
In order to crack down on enterprises in specific countries, the US government has created a series of export control tools, such as the "Entity List" and the "Military End-User List", which many Chinese companies have been included in these lists, and cooperation with US companies is restricted.
Earlier, a spokesman for China's Ministry of Commerce said that the US side regards export control as a tool for political suppression and economic bullying, and constantly adopts unilateral measures to suppress and contain enterprises, institutions and individuals in other countries, creating difficulties and obstacles to normal economic and trade cooperation between Chinese and AMERICAN enterprises, causing serious damage to the international economic and trade order and free trade rules, and posing a serious threat to the global industrial chain supply chain, which is not conducive to China, the United States, and the whole world.
The "fall" of 50 U.S. states
In the face of the spread of the monkeypox epidemic, the last line of defense against the epidemic in the United States has also been lost.
On August 22, local time, CDC released the latest data showing that Wyoming reported a confirmed case of monkeypox on the same day, the last "0 monkeypox case state" in the United States declared the fall, and the monkeypox virus has spread to all 50 states in the United States.
The Wyoming Department of Health said the monkeypox case, from a male resident in southeastern Laramie County, has now traced the infected person and is screening other residents with whom they have direct contact.
According to the latest data from the CDC, since the first case of monkeypox was reported in Massachusetts in mid-May, as of the 22nd local time, the cumulative number of monkeypox cases in the United States has exceeded 15,400, accounting for more than 30% of the total cases in the world.
Among them, New York State reported the largest number of confirmed cases of monkeypox, close to 3,000; It is followed by California, Florida, Texas and Georgia, with more than four-digit cumulative confirmed cases.
The ABC reports that the number of new cases reported daily in the U.S. has increased exponentially over the past month, from an average of 97 cases per day in the previous month to more than 1,300 per day (August 10), according to federal health agencies.
Regarding the route of monkeypox transmission, the CDC warns that there is currently no evidence that monkeypox is a sexually transmitted disease that anyone can be infected through prolonged close contact.
Currently, the U.S. health community generally believes that rapid vaccination against monkeypox is the best way to "prevent further spread of the virus."
However, the United States is facing a shortage of monkeypox vaccines. The U.S. government said on the 18th that it has distributed nearly 1 million doses of Jynneos monkeypox vaccine to various places. But the New York Times reports that experts estimate that at least 3.5 million doses of vaccine are currently needed to control the outbreak.
At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan has also sent red flags. On August 23, local time, Japan's Asahi TV reported that the number of deaths due to the new crown virus in Japan was 340 on the same day, the highest single-day history since the epidemic, and the previous peak was 327 people on February 22.
Earlier, 14 medical institutions in Kyoto Prefecture, including the Hospital affiliated with the Faculty of Medicine of Kyoto University, jointly issued a statement warning that the seventh wave of the new crown epidemic has reached the "disaster level" and that the medical system is now in a state of collapse.
Currency "devaluation tide"
At present, the global currency market is not calm.
Non-US currencies such as the euro, the british pound, the yen, and the South Korean won have all faced the impact of a strong dollar, once again opening a round of "comparison mode".
Among them, the depreciation of the South Korean won is particularly dangerous, and in the intraday session on Tuesday, the south Korean won fell sharply against the us dollar to 1341.82, a new 13-year low. Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the cumulative decline in the South Korean won against the dollar has exceeded 10%.
On Tuesday, South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue said in an interview with the media that the South Korean government will properly control risks through emergency economic countermeasures meetings and others to avoid the negative impact of the appreciation of the us dollar and the weak foreign exchange market of the South Korean won on the market. On the same day, the Korea Administration of Foreign Exchange issued an urgent verbal warning on speculative trading in the Won and will thoroughly check overseas markets for speculation.
The euro has also continued to fall, and the euro has now fallen below the parity mark of 1-1 against the dollar, once hitting a low of 0.9901. Meanwhile, eur/USD's one-month implied volatility rose for the eighth consecutive session, the first since April 2017. This means that the turmoil in Europe's currency market may have only just begun.
According to Bloomberg, traders in Europe revealed that the current demand for the downward structure of the euro from leveraged accounts is quite large, and although hedge funds hold short cash positions, they still increase their positions at the points of 0.97 and 0.95 against the euro and dollar. Separately, Goldman Sachs warned that in view of the cut in Russian gas supply, the euro could fall to a low of 0.80 or 0.90 in the event of a severe economic downturn.
In addition, according to the latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of last week, hedge fund net short bets on the euro have risen to a three-week high, while short bets on the pound have climbed to their highest level since March 2020.
At the same time, the yen has once again fallen into a "nightmare" of depreciation, and the dollar is once again approaching the 140 mark against the yen, dashing the hopes of a rebound for yen bulls, and asset management companies are increasing their short-selling efforts for the yen.
The next focus of global money market attention is the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole this Friday. At that time, Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech, which will most likely give a clear hint signal on the issue of what level the Fed will raise interest rates and how long high interest rates will last to reduce inflation.
Currently, forex traders are betting that the Fed will continue to let go of the eagle at the annual meeting, when the dollar shock will be more violent in the future.
Saudi warning
At the critical moment, the game of the global energy market has become more and more intense.
The first is the significant progress coming from the Iran nuclear deal. According to Reuters, a senior U.S. official revealed on Aug. 22 that Iran had dropped some of its demands on the nuclear deal, including previously insisting that the International Atomic Energy Agency close some investigations into the country's nuclear program. This means that an agreement becomes more likely.
On August 23, reference news network quoted the VOA radio website as reporting that the White House said that the leaders of the United States, Britain, France and Germany discussed on the phone call the ongoing negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, the need to strengthen support for partners in the Middle East, and joint efforts to block and constrain Iran's destabilizing regional activities.
Separately, discussions between EU member states and the United States over the Iran nuclear deal appear to be making progress, according to a State Department report, and are now closer to a nuclear deal than they were two weeks ago.
But according to senior U.S. officials, there are still differences between the United States and Iran, and it may take longer to reach a final agreement.
The negotiation process of the Iranian nuclear agreement has always been related to the supply of international crude oil, and will even directly affect the fluctuation of international oil prices. An official of the Iranian National Oil Company said iran's ministry of oil and subsidiaries have detailed plans to increase crude oil production to 4.038 million barrels per day by March 20, 2023.
However, the current international crude oil situation is far more complicated than imagined. Saudi Arabia seems to be unable to sit still in the face of the recent drop in oil prices and the increased likelihood of Iran's return to the oil market.
On August 23, local time, Saudi Energy Minister Bin Salman said that the international crude oil futures price can not reflect the fundamentals, which may require the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (ie OPEC + alliance) to tighten the supply of crude oil. Separately, OPEC+ sources said that when Iranian oil returns to the market, OPEC+ may be inclined to cut oil production.
After the warning, international oil prices rose directly, with WTI crude futures closing sharply higher by 3.74% on Tuesday, and Brent crude futures once again breaking through the $100 per barrel mark.