Hit by extreme heat and drought, European electricity prices hit another record high on August 2 – both France and Germany climbed to record levels. Not only that, after the peak of electricity consumption in the hot summer, winter heating will become the core pain point of its energy shortage.
On August 10, the European Union's coal import ban on Russia went into effect, and many European buyers planned to switch to other countries to buy coal in advance to fill the demand gap caused by the sanctions.
In response to the ongoing energy crisis, the European Union has quietly sought alternatives to fossil energy supplies, and many countries have announced the resumption of abandoned coal power projects...
So, can the "expedient measure" of restarting coal power really allow Europe to quickly "get out of trouble"? What impact will this move have on The European New Energy Development Plan and even the global energy transition?
【Energy dilemma, or will exceed expectations】
Whether it's the British Watt inventing the steam engine and promoting the use of hydrocarbons, or Churchill's decision to switch warship fuel from coal to expensive oil, every energy iteration of human society will bring about a huge change in human society, affecting the global energy and supply and demand pattern, and is closely related to geopolitics.
Today, in Europe, which is highly dependent on Russia's energy supply, geopolitical conflicts are particularly disturbing crude oil supply and prices. Widespread inflation caused by inadequate energy supplies and rising prices has also had an impact on Europe and the global economy. The European region is highly dependent on Russia's energy supply, including crude oil and natural gas, and the geopolitical conflict has a very obvious disturbance to the supply and price of crude oil, and the gap between supply and demand will lead to further price increases.
Since last year, natural gas and electricity prices have soared to record highs, and rising energy prices have led to widespread inflation, which has had a sharp impact on Europe and the global economy. The direct manifestation in the short term is the supply chain crisis of global energy, food and other commodities. In the long run, this energy dilemma also has a significant impact on the global energy structure.
From the perspective of energy transition, the increase in global coal prices reflects that the contradiction between coal supply and demand is no less than that of natural gas. The lack of new capacity of traditional energy is the trend of the times, and green energy storage has not yet been popularized on a large scale, so the fluctuation of green energy prices is difficult to alleviate for a while, which together cause energy prices to continue to be high.
Europe has been committed to the transition to green and clean energy for many years. Ostensibly, in Europe, the current energy crisis has sparked an accelerated movement to phase out fossil fuel use. On July 13, the European Union raised its 2030 energy efficiency target from 9 percent to 13 percent, and raised its 2030 target of 40 percent renewable energy, which it only passed in 2021, to 45 percent. On July 26, EU member states reached a political agreement to take voluntary measures to reduce gas demand by 15 percent this winter to improve the security of eu energy supply.
There are many challenges to achieving this goal. On July 21, Guo Jiangwen, a senior researcher at the Department of Environment and Society at the Royal Institute of International Studies (Chatham House), a well-known think tank, said in an interview with Uncle Ku that "Europe's energy dilemma may last longer than expected and bring significant inflation in the medium and long term." ”
The European Commission unveiled a plan in May to spend 210 billion euros to reduce dependence on fossil fuels to zero by 2027. However, on July 26, the European Audit Panel, the EU's audit body, warned in its report that due to major practical challenges such as financial difficulties, the EU's strategy of getting rid of Its dependence on Russia's energy may not be realized.
Lei Charter, an academician of the German National Academy of Engineering and chief scientist of carbon neutrality at Southwest Petroleum University, told Uncle Ku on July 21: "Increasing the development of renewable energy can reduce dependence on Russia's energy, and it is difficult to completely decouple from Russian energy in the short term." Once the gas is cut off, Germany and Europe will have to reactivate coal-fired power generation to cope with energy shortages, and the original energy transition and carbon emission reduction policies will inevitably be affected. ”
On July 21, Caroline Kuzemko, an energy and climate change expert at the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom, said in an interview with Uncle Ku that the question of whether the EU's implementation of its schedule for reducing emissions will be affected is "inconclusive" and that "much depends on how much coal Europe will use this winter, how cold it will be in winter, how quickly new renewable energy technologies can be put into use and other factors". Kuzemko believes that one of the best ways to solve the problem of "fighting gas" in Russia and Europe is to reduce the use of fossil energy.
In the short term, the European energy crisis is difficult to break, and there is no consensus on the Russian energy embargo in the region. Jeffrey Sachs, a well-known American economist, believes that the culprit of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the United States, and "the important reason for the rise in energy prices is sanctions against Russia, not decarbonization, and Europe's choice to take this path will put itself into recession." He believes that the imposition of energy sanctions on Russia is a double-edged sword, which will seriously damage the Russian economy and inevitably bring more serious crises to Europe itself.
["Expedient measures" to raise international concerns]
In the face of persistently high energy prices, Russia and Europe are under pressure to "fight against each other".
In order to "get out of trouble" from the energy crisis, on the one hand, Germany, Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark and other European "pioneer countries" that have vigorously called for the abandonment of coal and advocated environmental protection have successively announced the reopening of coal power plants or taken measures to support coal power projects. In the past few months, some of these European countries have stopped their gas supply contracts with russia or have been suspended by russia for refusing to pay rubles, and some have suspended the certification process of gas pipelines with russia.
On the other hand, the EU has also decided to expand LNG imports from the United States and identify more potential fossil energy alternative suppliers in regions such as the Middle East and Africa.
The European Commission's spokesman for climate action and energy, Tim McPhee, acknowledged that due to new changes in the European energy landscape, the energy mix and related plans of EU member states will be adjusted, including the restart of some coal production capacity. European Commissioner for the Internal Market, Thierry Brayton, claimed that a country could restart coal plants as long as it could prove to other EU member states that it had done all it could to access gas supplies.
German Chancellor Scholz recently said that in order to cope with the upcoming natural gas supply bottleneck, Germany's share of coal-fired power generation is also rising again. But he also stressed that this is an emergency measure for a limited time and will not come at the expense of Germany's climate goals.
However, the urgent measures under pressure in Europe have caused a lot of concern and controversy in the international community. Guo Jiangwen pointed out that "the restart of coal power is questioned in the context of accelerating carbon emission reduction, which is contrary to long-term goals; At the same time, about 50% of EU coal imports come from Russia, and looking for alternative sellers, such as importing more coal from Australia, is bound to disrupt the global supply order. ”
Italian environmental economics professor Andrea Zati worries that eu policies to deal with energy shortages may "miss the opportunity for a green transition", thinking that the current energy dilemma can be a catalyst for major changes in EU health and environmental policies, but he has disappointed the EU's decision to "cure the symptoms rather than the root causes".
The EU's choice to increase fossil energy imports from energy import substitutes may not only face problems such as high costs and long construction periods, but also may crowd out eu resources for investment in renewable energy and increase Europe's dependence on fossil fuels.
Astrid Vera, head of an environmental group in Malta, said that the sanctions against Russia have increased the EU's dependence on fossil fuels, which is a "retrogression" and a "setback" for environmental groups. Zati believes that the move could significantly delay the transition to sustainable energy.
In addition, some analysts pointed out that the EU's expansion of LNG imports from the United States does not really achieve energy strategic autonomy, but only shifts from dependence on Russia to being bundled by the US government and energy companies. The "expedient measure" to achieve economic recovery and energy autonomy may not only be difficult to get Europe out of trouble quickly, but may also disrupt new energy development plans, hinder the achievement of the 2050 carbon neutrality target, disrupt the global energy supply order, and adversely affect the realization of the global energy transition.
"Poor countries are cornered by rich countries"]
At the recent Petersburg Climate Dialogue, German Chancellor Schoelz stressed the need to focus on climate neutrality as a global modernization plan in which countries, businesses, scientists and citizens should work closely together.
German Foreign Minister Berbock also admitted that in order to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, Germany had to restart coal-fired power plants. But that doesn't mean the German government will be lax in expanding renewable energy. Unlike experts, he remains convinced that the Paris Agreement's most ambitious goal, which limits global warming to 1.5°C, can be achieved.
However, Kenyan international studies scholar Kavins Adehill points out that after the self-defeating sanctions imposed on Russia, European countries began to buy alternative energy in a frenzy. Coal-fired power plants designated for closure in Europe are coming back to life, while more oil rigs are being built in North America. In search of energy security, developed countries are turning to fossil fuels, in grave violation of global climate action.
"Additional investment in fossil fuels will exacerbate the impact on climate change. While Africa has the least carbon emissions, it is the first to bear the brunt of the impact in a global warming environment. Moreover, we are now seeing that European countries, as the main beneficiaries of carbon pollution, have adopted energy policies that clearly affect environmental protection, which is a manifestation of double standards. ”
Adehill pointed out that the current paradox of European energy policy is a problem that African countries have been fighting for a long time. For historical and economic reasons, "poor countries have been cornered by rich countries" to vigorously develop low-carbon and green energy, however, "as European countries switch to fossil fuels, the efforts of countries such as Kenya now face significant risk of reversal".
In early July, the European Parliament voted to formally pass a resolution to label natural gas and nuclear energy as "green energy, a move that could affect Europe's climate, energy policy and investment direction for a long time to come."
Europe has set a target of a significant increase in renewable energy, and the deployment to achieve this goal will not only affect Europe, but also countries and regions that manufacture and supply raw materials. Europe, for example, which had planned to deploy 150GW of solar energy in 2030, has now quadrupled that target to 600GW. This presents new topics, challenges, opportunities and opportunities for collaboration in the global supply chain of renewable energy, electric vehicles and materials needed to improve energy efficiency.
In May, the International Energy Agency predicted that the new installed capacity of renewable energy generation worldwide is expected to break the record again in 2022, despite rising costs and supply chain bottlenecks. The truth is that renewables have grown much faster this year than initially expected.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, pointed out in a recent interview with Uncle Ku that "China has played a very important role, and China is leading the way in solar, wind, hydropower and electric vehicles. Today, more than half of the world's electric vehicles are produced in China. In the solar sector, 60% of the world's solar energy growth comes from China. ”
Jeremy Jurgens, executive director of the World Economic Forum and an expert on the field of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, also said in an interview that China's innovation in renewable energy will actually provide very important solutions for the world.
The global energy supply and demand landscape has always been closely linked to geopolitics, but "climate change should not be a geopolitical bargaining chip.". Guo Jiangwen said: "In the face of the increasing impact of climate change, strengthening global cooperation is the only way to deal with this common crisis of mankind. ”
Jürgen also said that "we are very worried that the current geopolitical environment may have serious consequences for international cooperation, and we are likely to see a negative impact on trade relations within countries", stressing that "the risk of 'de-globalization' should be vigilant." ”
Unlike the days of Watt and Churchill, increasing climate change is the backdrop to this global energy transition. In order to cope with the common natural crisis of mankind, the strategy of reducing emissions and decarbonization cannot become a geopolitical chip, and strengthening global cooperation is the only way to deal with the common crisis of mankind.
Source: Lookout Think Tank