Sweden and Finland are halfway through the "accession" process, will the European security map be redrawn?

The Paper's reporter Wang Lunyu

On August 9, 2022, local time, Washington, US President Joe Biden signed the document on Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO. Biden shook hands with Sweden's ambassador to the United States, Karin Olofsdot. Visual China figure

U.S. President Joe Biden recently signed a protocol for Sweden and Finland to join NATO, and nearly a week later, French President Emmanuel Macron signed a protocol on the same subject.

The United States and France became the 23rd and 24th NATO members to ratify the Protocol, respectively. Biden said he spoke with the two heads of state of Sweden and Finland ahead of the signing ceremony and urged the remaining NATO members to complete their respective ratification procedures "as soon as possible."

Before Biden and Macron signed, the U.S. Senate and the French National Assembly had already voted to pass the protocol for Sweden and Finland to join NATO. NATO rules require the consent of all its existing members to join new members. After a series of processes, the two Nordic countries have completed most of the process of joining NATO.

Public opinion in Finland and Sweden has shifted rapidly

In fact, before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Finnish political elite always believed that Russia was a "neighbor that could not be moved" and that it was in Finland's best interest to establish a rational and cooperative relationship with it. Even after the 2008 crisis in Georgia and the 2014 crisis in Crimea, the atmosphere of public opinion in Finland has not changed dramatically, and the proportion of support for the country's accession to NATO has remained at around 20%.

But in the more than two months since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, public opinion in Finland has undergone a huge reversal. According to a Yle poll, less than 30 percent of Finns supported NATO membership in January, but that number rose to 62 percent in March. By May, as many as 76 percent of the Finnish population supported NATO membership.

The Guardian quoted analysts as saying that the current strong sentiment of the Finnish people for the country's joining NATO stems from the country's memory of fighting the Soviet Union during World War II. In December 1917, shortly after the October Revolution, Finland, which had been ruled by Russia for more than 100 years, declared its independence from Russia. Founded in 1922, the Soviet Union had always disputed territorial ownership on the border between the two countries, arguing that the security of Leningrad (present-day St. Petersburg), the second largest city in the Soviet Union, just 32 kilometers away from the Soviet-Finnish border, was threatened, and that Finland had close relations with Germany during its independence.

At the end of World War II, seeing that the German army was about to be defeated, Finland negotiated peace with the Soviet Union alone, trying to show Moscow its geopolitical harmlessness, thus beginning the process of so-called "Finnishization". The term coined by Western journalists in the early days of the Cold War describes a small country sacrificing some of its sovereignty and diplomatic space in exchange for a superpower's non-hostile attitude. During the long Cold War years, Finland was generally outside the confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union, so "Finnishization" gradually took on some positive connotations, which were used to refer to the flexible and ingenious diplomatic routes that small countries could adopt to protect their own security in the great power game.

With the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the "Finnishization" as a remnant of the Cold War quickly dissipated, and the conditions for its maintenance ceased to exist. The Russian-phobic mentality that prompted the Finnish elite to choose this route is now pushing them to accelerate their commitment to NATO.

Compared with the active promotion and decisive statement of the Finnish leader on the issue of joining NATO, Sweden's performance is slightly hesitant. For Sweden, joining NATO means losing the "neutrality" it has prided itself on since 208.

On May 15, a few hours after Finland officially announced its application for "accession," Sweden followed suit, announcing its support for NATO membership on the condition that the country did not possess permanent NATO bases or "nuclear weapons." It is worth mentioning that even though Sweden has announced its application for "accession", there are still differences within the ruling Social Democratic Party on whether to form an alliance, and some members oppose such a hasty decision.

It is worth mentioning that the Swedish people's support for NATO is also "temperature difference" with Finnish society. A poll published in the Swedish Evening News at the end of April showed that 57 percent of Swedes supported NATO membership, up from 51 percent in March. But this figure is still well below the nearly 80% approval rating in Finland.

Redraw the security map of Europe

Although in the eyes of the leaders and public opinion of Finland and Sweden, joining NATO will give them security guarantees. But what should not be overlooked is that the decision to "enter the treaty" will redraw the map of European security. From the map, Russia is on the baltic sea, except for the enclave of Kaliningrad, all of which are NATO members. The Baltic Sea is Russia's most important strategic point in its northwest. Russia will certainly respond to this.

On the one hand, it is clear that the accession of Finland and Sweden will further strengthen the power of NATO and the West. Lt. Gen. Hodges, commander of U.S. Army Forces in Europe, sees Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO as a very positive development. "The militaries of the two countries are modern and capable, and the military mobilization system is excellent."

The BBC analyzed that from a purely military point of view, the addition of a large number of troops in Finland and Sweden will greatly enhance NATO's defense force in northern Europe, fill the gap in NATO's defense, so that the number of troops in northern Europe will far exceed the Russian army, and the security and stability of the Baltic Sea may be improved.

If Finland and Sweden join NATO, is there a risk of the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict expanding? Fang Xiaohui, a professor at the Business School of Stockholm University in Sweden, previously analyzed in an interview with the surging news that "it remains to be seen whether the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will spread to Europe." There is no doubt that the Baltic Sea will be at the forefront of NATO's game with Russia, and the risk of Sweden and Finland being involved in military conflicts and terrorist attacks will increase. It is not excluded that NATO will contain Russia through military activities in and around the Baltic Sea and encircle Wei to save Zhao. ”

Among the Nordic countries, the decisions of Sweden and Finland also have a certain bellwether significance. Of the remaining three countries, Norway, Denmark and Iceland, Denmark has always taken a tougher stance toward Russia, and Norway is showing signs of adjusting its diplomatic posture. According to the German news agency reported on August 15, the five Nordic countries said that due to the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, they hope to cooperate more closely on security and defense issues in the future.

Norwegian Prime Minister Stehler said after talks with Nordic leaders in Oslo on the same day: "We believe that Nordic cooperation is more important than ever. At the meeting, the five leaders agreed that their foreign ministers and defense ministers should review security policies in all areas "to see if we can go further and maximize our common interests."

After the signing of the protocol between the United States and France, only seven countries are still on the sidelines, and the biggest obstacle is still Turkey. Turkey has repeatedly said in recent months that Sweden and Finland have threatened to exercise the veto within NATO by allowing the Gülen Movement and the PKK to carry out activities against Turkey on their territory, and that Sweden is also providing weapons and equipment to the PKK.

At the NATO summit at the end of June, Erdogan finally verbally agreed to the accession of the Nordic countries Sweden and Finland to NATO, while Biden verbally agreed to Turkey's key interests such as upgrading F-16 fighter jets and lifting sanctions on Turkey's "People's Bank". At the same time, Turkey, Finland and Sweden reached a compromise after several rounds of negotiations and signed a memorandum of understanding.

More critically, in April, Turkey took advantage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to attract the world's attention, launched a large-scale military operation code-named "lock claw" in Syria and northern Iraq, and struck at the Kurdish armed forces, an important strategic grip of the United States in Syria and Iraq. As of July, the Turkish army had removed a large number of militant strongholds in northern Syria, especially in Iraq, which was the most fruitful than the previous rounds of attacks on Kurdish forces, especially the Turkish army's deep penetration into the Iraqi reservoir area.

However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not stopped using this chip. On July 20, he said that almost all Nordic countries had become "nests of terrorism." Erdogan reiterated that Finland and Sweden should abide by their previous commitments, otherwise Turkey would continue to obstruct the process of joining NATO between the two countries.

Responsible editor: Zhang Wuwei Photo editor: Li Jingyun

Proofreader: Yan Zhang