【Text/Observer Network Li Huanyu】
On August 15, 2021, the Afghan Taliban peacefully entered the country's capital, Kabul. Two days later, in Kabul, Atta announced plans to form an inclusive government and began to take power, opening a new chapter in the history of a country that has suffered from decades of war.
On August 15, 2022, as Atta fighters waved the group's black and white flags and fired shots into the air in Kabul to celebrate the day, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said: "This day is the day when truth triumphs over lies, the day when the Afghan nation is saved and free." ”
However, as Baradal, one of Atta's founders, said, "the moment of test has just begun", and now that a year has passed, what kind of answer has Atta handed over in the face of "test"? Recently, the Atta leaders and the Western media have made special reports on this issue. On August 16, the Observer Network also contacted three guests who personally experienced the year of Atta's reign to take stock of this, they are:
Minghui Yu: Columnist of the Observer Network, 21 years in business in Afghanistan;
Zheng Gang: Overseas risk management expert, has public welfare assistance business in Afghanistan;
An Afghan citizen: The Afghan guest asked for complete anonymity, which will be referred to as A.
Security: The Taliban's greatest contribution
Both the Taliban themselves and the Western media see a broadly secure environment as atta's greatest achievement in Afghanistan this year.
In their August 15 report, the BBC and Reuters strongly played up the adverse impact of the growth of anti-Tajik forces such as the Islamic State on the security environment in Afghanistan, but they had to admit that Atta's Afghanistan was much safer than before.
According to the United Nations, from August 2021 to June 2022, more than 1,400 people were injured and 700 people died in Afghanistan, although this number is not small, but a simple comparison with the casualty figures of previous years is enough to see how much the Taliban have improved Afghanistan's security this year:
Civilian casualties in Afghanistan between 2012 and 2022 Chart Source: BBC
Anas Haqqani, a high-level leader of the Taliban, said in an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera on the 14th that Afghanistan has made great progress in the past year, and the main changes have occurred in the security field. Because they have achieved national independence and freedom, freed from foreign occupation and its unjust and oppressive rule, there will no longer be those harsh taxes and fees, and there will no longer be armed organizations that can be lawless, which is the source of the Taliban's pride.
Mr Yu and A also recognized the Taliban's security achievements.
Mr. Yu believes that at present, the biggest achievement of the Taliban in the past year is to end the war that lasted for more than 40 years, maintain the basic peace in Afghanistan, and give the greatest credit to the Afghan people who have experienced the pain of war.
A said Afghanistan is probably the safest period in nearly fifteen or six years, and while there are still some explosions, but only a few, the Taliban are doing a good job in this area.
Still, he said, it's not easy to get the Afghan people to feel safe for a long time, given the recent bombings in Afghanistan and the Taliban government needs to create a long-term stable environment to reassure people.
On August 11, the extremist group Islamic State declared responsible for the bombing of a seminary in Kabul in an explosion that killed Taliban religious leader Sheikh Rahimullah Haqqani
As A has said, while the Taliban have made great strides in the area of security, it is not an overnight achievement to give Afghans peace of mind. The United Nations says there are at least 12 independent anti-Taliban militant groups in Afghanistan, with the extremist group Khorasan Branch of the Islamic State (IS-K) being the main threat, and they are responsible for half of the casualties this year.
Mr. Zheng also pointed out that since the spring of this year, especially in recent months, the So-called new offensive has been launched by the Northern Alliance, and the "Islamic State" has also continuously launched attacks against the Afghan Taliban, so the security situation is still relatively grim.
Economy: The bottom is deformed, and the situation has improved after the recapture of sovereignty
In addition to the direct threat from anti-Tajik forces, Afghanistan's severe economic situation is also a big hidden danger for the country's long-term peace and stability.
Sulaiman Bin Shah, former Deputy Minister of Industry and Commerce of Afghanistan, has pointed out that Afghanistan's original economic system is very deformed, with 75% of public expenditure dependent on grants, resulting in the country being very dependent on international assistance and donations over the past 20 years, which can be said to be "hard-pulled" to some extent.
Today, the country's economic situation is "very bad" as the country has yet to gain international recognition, which has led to a reduction in development aid on which it relies heavily. Citing a U.N. report, the BBC said the country's economy has shrunk by an estimated 30 to 40 percent since the Taliban took over Afghanistan last August.
The U.S. freeze on Afghanistan's $9 billion in foreign exchange reserves has exacerbated the country's economy. Reuters said the Afghan Taliban's negotiations to demand the return of reserves by the United States encountered obstacles, and the United States asked a Taliban leader who was sanctioned by them to resign from the bank, which the Taliban refused.
Unless there is a major shift in the positions of both sides, there is no solution to the current price spiral, rising unemployment and hunger. About 25 million Afghans now live in poverty, a figure that is well over half of Afghanistan's population. The United Nations estimates that as many as 900,000 people could lose their jobs this year due to economic stagnation.
So, what did the Taliban do?
With the Taliban back in power, Haqqani said, Afghanistan has a central government that can rule the country for the first time in nearly 40 years. Now they are doing things in the right direction, such as using national and foreign companies to exploit minerals and natural resources to finance the functioning of state institutions, and also recovering tariff autonomy to ensure that these revenues can go to the Afghan Treasury, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance.
Anas Haqqani Image credit: Al Jazeera
The BBC also noted that the Taliban are trying to take advantage of rising global coal prices to increase coal exports. A three-month budget released in January showed that the Taliban received nearly $400 million in revenue between September and December 2021.
Haqqani said the Afghan central government paid the salaries of all state agencies without relying on any taxes and aid, and these are just a few examples of the upheaval brought about by the Taliban.
His assessment of the Taliban's pre-regimen Afghan economy is that, over the past 20 years, while foreign countries have controlled Afghanistan with advanced technology, vast financial resources and resources, they have not been able to bring the security and order that Afghans do today.
In addition, in such a difficult economic situation, the Taliban have also achieved some success in the fight against drugs.
For many years, Afghanistan has been the world's largest source of opium, according to the BBC. In April, the Taliban announced a ban on poppy cultivation.
Although no exact data are available, reports from some poppy-growing areas in the southern province of Helmand indicate that the Taliban have been forcing farmers to destroy poppy fields. An official U.S. report in July noted that while the Taliban may lose support from farmers and others involved in the drug trade, they "appear to be committed to countering drugs."
As for the specific actions of the Taliban in economic construction, Mr. Yu has a personal experience.
He said that the Taliban government is very eager for Chinese investment to improve the country's economic situation, and they have continued the agreement of the previous government to set up the best position and the only foreign company image display board for "Chinatown" at Kabul Airport, which has found a grip for the dissemination of Chinese good image.
In May this year, Baradal, one of the founders of Atta and the acting deputy prime minister of the Provisional Government, personally attended the scene to lead the signing of the land transfer procedures for the "Chinatown" Belt and Road International Industrial Park, and he also expressed his hope that China could participate in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, especially thanks to the investment of "Chinatown" in Afghanistan for two decades and the unremitting promotion of trade between the two countries, and will fully support the all-round work.
In practical work, "Chinatown" has received help from many ministers of the Taliban government, and the director of the office of the Ministry of Land And Construction has also sent two official magazines, as a representative of Afghanistan's new construction achievements, reporting on the Taliban's cooperation with "Chinatown", describing that "Chinatown" will participate in the construction of new cities in the capital based on the Belt and Road Industrial Park.
Screenshot of the magazine Image source: Mr. Yu
Mr. Cheng said the Taliban government's current focus remains on consolidating power, as they have gained a foothold in the south, where Pashtuns are predominantly distributed, but their control over the north, particularly in some ethnic minority areas, is not strong.
At the same time, the Taliban do rank economic construction in a relatively high priority, because they are more confident in their politics and military, but the economy is relatively short. So they have people like Baradal who are specifically responsible for the economy to make plans, to create as much as possible a relatively favorable external environment. The Taliban government also attaches great importance to important infrastructure projects, such as the railway and oil and gas projects proposed during the previous government period, from Turkmenistan to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Other infrastructure projects, such as roads, bridges, and the country's urgent shortage of electricity, are given great importance and will create as favorable conditions as possible for foreign investment to enter. For example, if a foreign-invested project lacks electricity, they will try their best to ensure the power supply.
However, Mr. Zheng also pointed out that although the Taliban government is very enthusiastic about the project, considering their economic and financial situation, the Taliban government really has the ability to provide funds and supporting facilities for the project is very small, so they still hope to be able to get external assistance, and the effectiveness of the various corresponding measures taken by the Taliban government is worth further observation.
Humanitarian crisis: it's not that you don't have to eat, it's that you can't afford to eat
The dire economic situation has been accompanied by a severe humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.
At a video briefing in Kabul on August 15, the United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator in Afghanistan, Arakbarov, said that many parts of Afghanistan have been in dire straits this year, from hunger to chronic poverty, and that natural disasters such as recent earthquakes have pushed already vulnerable communities to the brink of collapse.
According to the report, more than half of Afghanistan's population lives below the poverty line, nearly 23 million people are caught up in food insecurity, many of them in severe condition, and more than 2 million children are malnourished. In June 2022, a magnitude 5.9 earthquake struck central Afghanistan, killing more than 1,000 people.
For decades, Afghanistan's critical public services and infrastructure have been neglected and underdeveloped, Arakbarov said. After the Taliban came to power, Afghanistan's food insecurity, poverty and debt rates rose sharply, and 11 million Afghans now need help with health care, 500,000 need help with education, and some 2 million in need of help in dealing with natural disasters and the consequences of displacement.
Over the years, A has also experienced the humanitarian crisis in his own country.
Poverty is a very common phenomenon in Afghanistan, he said, and many Afghan families now have no job opportunities and no source of income, and some have to beg, let alone get an education and acquire skills. In his view, the humanitarian crisis was the biggest problem facing his country, and the current Government could not come up with a long-term viable solution, and if the situation was not resolved for a long time, it would have more serious consequences for Afghan society.
Afghan women and children waiting for handouts Image credit: United Nations
However, Mr. Yu believes that although the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan is serious, the current situation can still maintain a lower limit and will not further worsen the situation, and some reports are exaggerated.
He pointed out that if you only look at the supply of materials, then opposite the "ChinaTown" is the largest grain and oil wholesale and retail market in Afghanistan, large and small transport vehicles pass by the north road every day, each store is full of all kinds of food and materials, the market price fluctuates, but there is never a shortage of goods.
In Mr. Yu's view, whether basic supplies can be supplied is one thing, and whether the Afghan people have the money to buy them is another matter. Now, because of the large withdrawal of international agencies, some civilians are in trouble. However, UN personnel are paying money in the north, poor households are 500 US dollars each, and food is constantly being shipped, so there will be no extreme situations such as starvation and freezing to death. In addition, there are various institutions and enterprises in the country that have entered the country through a steady stream of assistance to Afghanistan, establishing a good public welfare image.
He also consulted six local Afghan employees in this regard: Fali (Lugal Province), Noor (Houst Province), Afeizi (Nangarhar Province), Numb Lee (Kandahar Province), Ali (Herat Province), and Nafisado (Badakhshan Province), and got the same answer as in previous years: never heard or seen a starving person. There are many families that cannot eat high-fat foods, and there are not many families that lack bread (note: the staple food of Afghans).
Mr. Zheng came to a similar conclusion. He noted that Afghanistan was relatively well supplied, at least in the capital and in the markets of the big cities, and that the country's real problem was the lack of purchasing power. Because the United States has seized some of their funds before, and the Taliban government's fiscal revenue is relatively limited, civil servants and ordinary people lack purchasing power. Like a hospital they had docked before, some doctors were even owed seven months or more in pay, and then a United Nations-related organization helped them pay a part of their salaries.
Afghan women receiving food Image source: United Nations
So Mr. Zheng believes that Afghanistan is not as they think that nothing can be bought, but that people can't afford it. Of course, he also admitted that the objects of their research and contact were mainly in cities, and their understanding of rural and mountainous areas was relatively lacking.
As for the question of whether people will freeze to death in winter, Mr. Zheng said that if there is not enough humanitarian assistance by the end of the second half of the year, the possibility of freezing to death in the remote mountainous areas of Afghanistan still exists, especially now that Afghanistan has had an earthquake and the disaster areas, where conditions are even worse.
A also told the Observer Network that although this possibility cannot be ruled out, it is true that he has never seen anyone starve to death or freeze to death, and now many international organizations or foreign agencies have brought a lot of help to poor Families in Afghanistan.
Women's Rights: Some regressions, disagreements within the Taliban
In addition to the humanitarian crisis, the protection of women's rights in Afghanistan is another major focus of attention, and in this regard, the Taliban are somewhat backwards compared to the previous government.
The BBC noted that despite announcing a year ago that Afghanistan would allow women to work and be educated, allowing them to remain active within the framework of Sharia law, there is still no way for Afghan girls to attend secondary school. According to the United Nations, about 1.1 million students have been affected, and the explanation given by the Taliban is that they lack female teachers and that the school's isolation facilities are insufficient.
However, girls in Afghanistan have access to primary education, and some public universities opened courses for female university students in February.
In terms of employment, according to the World Bank, between 1998 and 2019, the female labor force participation rate in Afghanistan rose from 15% to 22%. When the Taliban returned to power, the proportion of women working fell to 15 percent in 2021.
In addition to this, some of the regulations that used to restrict Afghan women have returned. For example, women are prohibited from entering public places without a male guardian and are required to wear full-length burqas in public. Fatima, who lives in the country's western Herat province, said she had noticed an improvement in security last year, but to her dismay, girls' schools were closed and there was a lack of employment opportunities for women.
Girls in Afghan schools Image credit: United Nations
On women's issues, Haqqani acknowledged that there are still many measures that need to be taken in Afghanistan, but said that in the face of the failure of other governments to overcome the challenges of the past 20 years, they should not be required to be held to higher standards.
Haqqani's explanation is that the Taliban have only been in power for a year, and the world should not refer to them achieving all their goals overnight, which is almost impossible. Moreover, the international community has not fulfilled its commitments, including by recognizing their Governments and providing assistance. But by the grace of Allah, the Taliban have made tremendous progress on many fronts. For example, girls can go to school until grade 12 and go to university (note: most Afghan provinces still prohibit girls from high school education).
There is clearly a significant gap between Haqqani's statement and the reality of Afghanistan.
Mr. Yu said that Kabul has not yet achieved the resumption of classes for sixth-grade girls, and women have marched in the streets for this, and Haqqani said that he is actively studying the timetable and methods for resuming classes.
A also pointed out that although the current government has made many verbal promises, in fact, this year, from the sixth grade to the third year of high school, girls have been in a state of inability to go to class. He argues that Sharia law is not enough to prevent girls from going to school, as more than 40 Islamic countries around the world allow children to be educated and work.
Finally, both Mr. Yu and A believe that there are internal differences within the Taliban on the issue of girls attending classes, which is not monolithic, so it will lead to duplication of policies and even differences in words and deeds.
Governance level: there is a shortage of professional talents, and inclusiveness needs to be strengthened
In addition to these key points of concern to the outside world, the transformation from "fighting the world" to "ruling the world" still plagues the Taliban government to this day.
Mr. Yu gave a small example of the Taliban government's public bidding for projects to build an image of integrity. However, they could not use scientific inquest methods to judge the value of the project, so they had to release some small assets with low gold content to test the waters in order to accumulate experience.
But the Taliban are afraid of being ridiculed or accused by the outside world, so they raise the price, but privately give enough bargaining space, so a "fair and clean" auction has become a competition between all parties.
A also said that as a political organization, the Taliban have a strong control over Afghan government agencies, but they lack professional talent and do not pay enough attention to professional work.
In addition, A attaches great importance to the inclusiveness of the government in its composition. He said the current Taliban government is mostly Sunni Pashtuns, with very few Tajiks, Uzbeks or Hazaras, not to mention other ethnic groups.
Pashtuns make up about 40% of Afghanistan's population. In A's view, as a national government, the Taliban should have brought in a variety of professionals, as well as other ethnic groups, into the Afghan government.
Diplomacy: Minor frictions continue, and relations with Iran and Pakistan are unstable
Since the Taliban took control of Kabul, Afghanistan has had minor frictions with neighboring countries such as Turkmenistan, Pakistan, and Iran. A believes that this shows that the lack of professional talent has also affected the Taliban government's handling of relations with neighboring countries.
He said the Taliban have not yet completed the mindset shift from a "guerrilla" to a "national government", are very sensitive to many things, and when unexpected situations occur, there is a lack of professionals within their government to operate such agendas, so they tend to deal with them in the way they do best.
On the other hand, the cultural similarities between the cultural practices of neighboring countries such as Iran and Pakistan and Afghanistan also make Afghanistan face a more complicated situation in dealing with relations with such neighbors.
A typical situation is that there are many Afghans on the border between Afghanistan and Iran and Pakistan, and there are even identity cards of those countries, and once something happens in Afghanistan, they will run to Iran and Pakistan, and this kind of difficult movement of people that the authorities cannot control often involves some ethnic contradictions and tribal disputes, which escalates the situation.
China is a rare counterexample in this regard. A said that Afghans may run to Iran or Pakistan, but no one may think of going to China, first, the border conditions between the two countries are difficult and short, and second, the Chinese government's management of the border is very successful. Therefore, Afghanistan and China will not have much to do with each other except for some political and economic affairs.
As a result, while the differences between China and Afghanistan are very large, the Taliban government's relations with China are very good, even more stable than those of Muslim countries such as Iran and Pakistan.
As of now, Afghanistan has not been recognized by the international community. A believes that until the Taliban government addresses issues such as women's rights and government inclusiveness, it will be difficult for them to be accepted by the international community. Mr. Yu cited speculation from some Taliban government departments or Afghan companies that the international community would recognize the Taliban regime in half a year to a year.
Mr. Yu believes that the recognition of the new Taliban government is closely related to the United States and other permanent members of the Security Council, and if it goes well, it may break zero recognition within a year. The Taliban's top brass has made many compromises to gain international recognition as soon as possible, and they expect a diplomatic breakthrough by the end of 2022.
Haqqani said the Taliban government is eager to maintain friendly relations with all countries and the international community as a whole. It is also their responsibility to provide their people with a dignified and comfortable way of life. The Taliban have served the people, and he believes that the Taliban government has achieved much for their people. While the lack of international recognition of the Taliban's rule has faced many challenges, they are eager to achieve more.
The Afghan people are unfamiliar with the "East Turkestan Islamic Movement"
When it comes to Afghanistan, the "East Turkestan Islamic Movement" is an unavoidable topic. The Observer Network also asked Mr. A and Mr. Yu about the views of the Afghan people on the East Turkestan Movement and other extremist organizations such as Al-Qaida and the Islamic State after the Taliban took power a year after they took office.
Mr. Yu said that he asked about five people of different ethnic groups and different provinces in Afghanistan, and no one knew about the "East Turkestan Islamic Movement". They know that the Islamic State, al-Qaida and the Pakistani Taliban all have a negative impression of it.
A also said that he has no idea what "ETIM" is, in the eyes of the Afghan people, like the "Islamic State", "al-Qaida" and "Pakistani Taliban" are terrorist organizations, as for the Taliban government to see him is not clear.
According to Al Jazeera, the fact that Afghan land will not be used by outside armed groups is an important commitment at Atta to the international community, but recent incidents, such as the killing of the leader of the Pakistani Taliban in Afghanistan and the assassination of the al-Qaida leader in Kabul by the United States, have raised concerns about the credibility of the Taliban's commitments.
In this regard, Haqqani stressed that since the signing of the Doha Agreement, they have been fulfilling their obligations, any allegation that Afghan land is being used to undermine the security of other countries is false, and if there is any violation, it is that the United States has entered Afghan territory without their permission without even notifying them, which is obviously a violation by the United States.
Haqqani reiterated that the Afghan Taliban had not violated any of its obligations under the Doha Agreement and that those allegations were false and malicious propaganda aimed at discrediting the image of the Taliban in the eyes of the world public, and that the Afghan Taliban would like to see the Parties to the Doha Agreement respect them and fulfil their responsibilities.
This article is an exclusive manuscript of the Observer Network and may not be reproduced without authorization.