From Return to Lost: The First Anniversary of the Afghan Taliban's Administration

The Paper's special contributor Liu Zhongmin

On July 30, 2022, local time, in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, Sara, a 14-year-old Afghan girl, sat in the cemetery reading a book while waiting for customers to buy water. Visual China figure

On August 15, 2021, the Afghan Taliban entered the capital Kabul in a big way, and the "Islamic Republic of Afghanistan" that the United States invested heavily in supporting the establishment of quickly collapsed; On August 19, the Taliban announced the establishment of an "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" that highlights the ideological nature of Islamism; On August 30, the last transport plane of U.S. troops left Afghanistan, and the withdrawal of U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan for more than 20 years was completed in a desperate manner, and was called the humiliating "Kabul Moment" by the outside world; On 7 September, the Afghan Taliban announced the formation of an interim government.

After the formation of the Afghan interim government, the Taliban regime, which was overthrown by the United States through the war on terror in 2001, regained control of Afghan politics, and the process of the WITHDRAWAL of the United States from Afghanistan was extremely embarrassing, highlighting the absurd end of the contest between the hegemony of the modern world of the United States and the Taliban of the former modern power. After the withdrawal of the United States, international public opinion at that time mostly believed that Afghanistan would become the stage of a new round of great power game, and the political trend of Afghanistan under the Rule of the Islamist force Taliban also became the focus of widespread attention.

However, with the drastic changes in the international pattern and world order over the past year, the geopolitical effects caused by the return of the Afghan Taliban seem to have been drowned in more global political changes such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the great power game. In short, at the international level, Afghanistan seems to be being forgotten or ignored by the world; At the domestic level, the ill-governing and ideologically conservative Taliban have once again disoriented Afghanistan.

Political rule lacks tolerance, is keen on monopolizing power and ostracizing dissidents

In view of the Taliban's bad deeds during its first rule in Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, the international community expects the returning Taliban to form an inclusive Government, especially to be able to fully absorb the forces of the former Afghan Government and the non-Pashtun national forces, and to avoid Afghanistan from falling back into ethnic, sectarian and warlord scuffles, but the Taliban still show a monopoly on power and an intolerable exclusivity in terms of government formation and treatment of other political forces.

First, the composition of the Interim Government reflects the Taliban's monopoly on Afghan political power. After the Taliban took control of Kabul, there was unanimous demand inside and outside Afghanistan for the Taliban to establish an inclusive government. On August 17, 2021, Atta spokesman Mujahid said that the Taliban would not liquidate and retaliate, and promised to form an inclusive government, welcoming representatives of all political factions and all sectors of society to join the new government. But the Afghan interim government is largely a government monopolized by the Taliban, not the inclusive government it promised.

Judging from the organizational structure of the government, the various factions within Atta monopolize all the core positions of the government, and all of them are appointed by Atta's supreme leader, Ahunzada. Judging from the ethnic structure constituted by the Government, 30 of the 33 key members of the Provisional Government are Pashtuns and only 3 are non-Pashtuns; Tajiks and Uzbeks are grossly underrepresented in the Provisional Government, while the Hazaras, who profess Islamic Shia, are not represented in the Provisional Government. Among the ethnic composition of Afghanistan, 40 per cent of the Ethnic Group is Pashtun and 25 per cent of the Tajiks, as well as more than 20 ethnic minorities, including Hazara (9 per cent), Uzbekistan (9 per cent), Turkmen (3 per cent) and Baloch (2 per cent). It is therefore clear that the composition of the Interim Government is seriously out of touch with the Afghan national fabric. In terms of the gender structure of the government composition, there are no women on the provisional government list for senior positions such as ministers, which also reflects the Taliban's consistent conservative policy towards women.

On 30 June 2022, the Afghan Interim Government convened the first Greater Loya Jirga conference since its inception, which was attended by some 3,500 religious scholars and tribal leaders across Afghanistan, as well as representatives of Afghan refugees living in Iran and Pakistan. Women and prominent Afghan politicians, including former President Ham ham Hamid Karzai and former Chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation Abdullah, were not invited to attend the meeting, demonstrating that the meeting remained ineligible and representative. This is also true of the words of Jolyon Leslie, an expert on Afghanistan: "The Taliban represent the Taliban, not Afghanistan." For nearly a year, half the population has not been represented in the current government at all. ”

Second, reprisals and exclusions against other political forces reflect the Taliban's intolerable exclusivity and highlight the Taliban's retaliation, ill-treatment and execution of former government officials, non-Pashtun groups, and "moral offenders." According to the Human Rights Report of Afghanistan for the period 15 August 2021 to 15 June 2022, released by the United Nations, on 17 August 2021, the Afghan Interim Government announced amnesty for former government officials and members of the National Security and Defence Forces. However, this amnesty has not been sustained, and according to unamichadezed missions in Afghanistan, members of the Afghan Interim Government have carried out extrajudicial executions of at least 160 former government and security officials between 15 August 2021 and 15 June 2022. The UNAMA report also details the extrajudicial executions of individuals accused of belonging to armed groups, as well as the brutal, inhuman and degrading punishment and extrajudicial executions of individuals accused of "moral" crimes, as well as the excessive use of force by law enforcement officials.

Economic development capacity is lacking, and humanitarian crises are serious

Due to the Taliban's lack of economic management capacity and the chaos following the withdrawal of U.S. troops, as well as the decline in international assistance, Afghanistan has been plunged into a serious economic and social crisis, and the humanitarian crisis has continued to increase. According to a Report released by the World Food Programme in October 2021, 95% of Afghans do not have enough to eat, 22.8 million Afghans – more than half of the country 's population – face serious food security problems, and 3.2 million children under the age of 5 are severely malnourished. According to the UNAMA report, the unprecedented nationwide economic and financial crisis has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan. By June 15, 2022, at least 59 percent of the population is now in need of humanitarian assistance, an increase of 6 million people from early 2021. Graeme Smith, an expert at the International Crisis Group, said after a visit to Kabul that when the United Nations and other humanitarian agencies have scaled back this year's massive aid operations, Afghans will not be able to survive on emergency relief payments. Afghanistan has achieved temporary peace, and it is urgent to end the country's isolation, now need development assistance and persuade Western and regional governments to help Afghanistan's economy recover.

Afghanistan's economic difficulties, although it has a lot to do with its long-term war and difficulties, are also closely related to the Taliban's long-term role as a rebel organization, its lack of governance capacity, and its inability to govern the country. During his visit to Kabul, Graeme Smith found that "some in the Taliban admit that after decades of struggle in rural life, they are uneasy about the task of managing the national government." An Afghan source with close ties to the Taliban noted: "Managing the government is the biggest nightmare they face." They were amazed at all the developments. "He pointed out that after the Taliban's top brass returned to Kabul, the huge changes that have taken place in the country in 20 years have made it difficult for the Taliban to adapt." They are a force from the traditional countryside, step by step to reach the city, but instead of trying to integrate themselves into the city, they want to integrate the city into their traditions, they want us to look like them, with the same beliefs and hobbies as them. ”

The cessation of United States assistance to Afghanistan, the freezing of Afghan property and the arbitrary use of the United States have further exacerbated Afghanistan's economic difficulties. During the U.S. military presence, the U.S. government provided an average of $2 billion in civilian aid and $4.6 billion in military aid to the democratically elected Government of Afghanistan each year. But with the withdrawal of the United States and its allies, economic aid and investment from the Western world largely stopped. In February 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order demanding that the Central Bank of Afghanistan divide its $7 billion in assets in the United States equally, of which $3.5 billion was authorized to be injected into the so-called "Afghanistan Humanitarian Aid Trust Fund" and the remaining $3.5 billion was intended to be used for compensation for victims of the 9/11 incident. There is no doubt that this kind of US approach of drawing salaries from the bottom has greatly aggravated the economic crisis in Afghanistan. In addition, natural disasters such as earthquakes have further exacerbated the economic crisis in Afghanistan. On June 22, 2022, a powerful earthquake struck eastern Afghanistan, killing more than 1,000 people and injuring thousands.

Security controls are poor and it is difficult to completely cut off with extremist organizations

The Taliban's difficulties in controlling and cutting off extremist groups have left the security environment in Afghanistan still very poor.

First, after the establishment of the Afghan Interim Government, although the intensity and intensity of the afghan internal conflict have declined, the casualties caused by violent conflicts such as Taliban clashes with the opposition, terrorist attacks, and ethnic clashes are still serious.

Between mid-August 2021 and mid-June 2022, UNAMA recorded data on 2,106 civilian casualties (700 deaths and 1,406 injuries), according to the UNAMA report. Most civilian casualties were caused by attacks by the extremist group Khorasan branch of the Islamic State against ethnic and religious minorities where they went to school, worship and daily life.

Second, the biggest pressure on the Taliban regime in the security field comes from the challenges of extremist groups such as the Islamic State of Khorasan province and al-Qaida, and how to sever ties with extremist groups.

In the area of security, the Taliban's toughest challenge comes from the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP); Also known as Islamic State-Khorasan, or IS-K for short). Before and after the US withdrawal, the "Islamic State of Khorasan Province" became the initiator of the main terrorist attack in Afghanistan, which not only put great pressure on the Taliban to maintain internal security, but also created difficulties for the Taliban's national reconciliation, because the "Islamic State Khorasan Province" continued to attack the Shi-believing Hazara people. For example, the Kunduz mosque attack on October 8, 2021, and the Kandahar mosque attack on October 15, 2021 both caused at least 150 casualties. In addition to The Shiite Hazaras, terrorist attacks have also targeted schools, the Taliban and the United Nations.

The Islamic State of Khorasan is largely the product of the combination of is the Islamic State's infiltration in Afghanistan and the division within the Taliban, and its threat to the Taliban includes both ideological and colossal real threats. First of all, at the ideological level and political struggle level, the "Islamic State Khorasan Province" constantly attacked the Taliban's "apostasy", which aggravated the division within the Taliban, and the contradictions between hardliners and moderates within the Taliban also provided conditions for the demagoguery of the "Islamic State of Khorasan Province". Second, the Frequent Terrorist Attacks by the Islamic State of Khorasan Province have exacerbated afghanistan's already fragile security environment and made it difficult for the Taliban to concentrate on rebuilding the country. Finally, the Islamic State of Khorasan Province has continued to incite sectarian tensions and launched terrorist attacks against the Shiite Hazara ethnic group, which is not conducive to the reconciliation between the Taliban and the Hazara ethnic group. (See Liu Zhongmin, The Extremist Organization "Islamic State of Khorasan Province": Atta's Toughest Challenges.)

There is also great uncertainty as to whether the Taliban's relationship with al-Qaida has been severed, and it is believed that the Taliban has not completely cut off al-Qaida. After the U.S. withdrawal, Al-Qaida leader Zawahiri once again declared allegiance to the Taliban. At the end of July 2022, Zawahiri was killed by a US drone in the Taliban-controlled city of Kabul, which further convinced the outside world that al-Qaida still has close ties with the Taliban. Abdul Basit, a researcher at the Rajalenam Institute of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the U.S. assassination had left the Taliban in a dilemma on both fronts: "On the one hand, it could lead to the Taliban losing what little trust remained in Washington and ruining its chances of international recognition in the short term." It was discovered that the al-Qaida leader who assisted in organizing the 9/11 attacks was allowed to live in Kabul. On the other hand, the assassination is likely to leave the Taliban's relationship with Al Qaeda severely damaged and irreparable. Before Zawahiri was killed, the relationship between the two groups was based on trust. ”

Sticking to the ideological bottom line, social management is conservative and backward

The Taliban are still unable to abandon Islamist ideology, social management is closed and conservative, and the rights of the Afghan people, especially women, are not guaranteed.

The Taliban's moderation is mainly manifested in the abandonment of the extremist side of its past manifestations (such as the bombing of the Bamiyan Buddha, frequent violent terrorist attacks, the imposition of cruel Islamic punishments and other extreme practices), but the Taliban has not abandoned its Islamist ideological bottom line, its basic purpose is to oppose Westernization, oppose secularization, advocate returning to the original teachings of Islam, changing the existing world order, and overthrowing the existing secular regime. Establish islamic states and orders based on Sharia law ruled by religious leaders or sharia scholars.

During the Taliban regime from 1996 to 2001, Afghanistan fully pursued a so-called "Islamization policy". Strictly adhere to monotheism in religion, oppose polytheism and idolatry; Politically establish an Islamic polity that implements Sharia law. In the socio-cultural sphere, the Taliban announced the abolition of various cultural and recreational activities; Men must grow beards, and women must wear veils and robes when they go out; Not only do women not have the right to vote and to stand for election, but they are also deprived of their right to work and education. In the legal field, the Taliban punish those who violate Islamic law with severe punishment. In religious life, the Taliban vigorously implement a set of rigid rules and precepts, emphasize the observance of religious dogmas, and oppose all forms of science and technology and secular culture and education.

On 2 July this year, the Greater Loya Jirga Conference convened by the Afghan Interim Government concluded with a resolution of 11 principles: participants swore allegiance to the leaders of the Afghan Interim Government; Calling on the international community to unfreeze Afghan assets; Calls upon participants to recognize the legitimacy of the Afghan Interim Government; (a) Declare its support for the Afghan Interim Government's decree on drugs and combat poppy cultivation and drug smuggling; Support the policy of the Afghan Interim Government, non-interference in the internal affairs of other States, mutual respect, and call upon other States not to interfere in the internal affairs of Afghanistan; Prohibit any form of cooperation with the "Khorasan branch of the Islamic State"; Armed opposition to the current government is rebellion; Calls for attention to religious and modern education, health, agriculture, minorities and the rights of women, children and economic development within the framework of the Islamic Shariah; Oppose clergy provoking the government through the media; Call for the encouragement of national unity; The clergy supported the Afghan Interim Government in facilitating the repatriation of Afghan expatriates. It can be found from this that obtaining legitimacy at home and abroad, maintaining government authority, and practicing Sharia rule are the focus of the Taliban's attention and have a strong conservative color.

In the case of the Taliban in the past year since it came to power, although its position and practices have changed, there has been no essential change. The most prominent issue is women's rights, which has undergone serious historical setbacks. Since the Taliban reoccupied Kabul last August, women's rights in Afghanistan have been subject to the strictest restrictions in the world: they have been barred from secondary education; Cannot perform the vast majority of jobs other than medical and educational; Travel must be accompanied by a male guardian; A burqa robe covering the whole body must be worn in public; Wait a minute. In early December 2021, the Taliban issued a special decree to protect women's rights, but not only has women's employment and education not improved, but new decrees have been issued later to further restrict women's rights.

The July 2022 UN report made it clearer that violations of women's rights are one of the most high-profile aspects of the Afghan interim government administration to date. Since 15 August 2021, the rights of women and girls to participate fully in education, work, public life and other aspects of daily life have been progressively restricted and in many cases completely denied. An investigation by experts from the International Crisis Group reached the same conclusion: the Taliban decided to prevent Afghan women from flying alone without male family members; Instruct broadcasters to stop broadcasting international news in local languages; Announcement of separate visits to parks and universities for men and women; Instruct teachers and students not to wear ties; and other restrictions imposed.

In addition, the UNAMA report notes that the Afghan Interim Government has restricted dissent through its crackdown on protests and restrictions on media freedom, including arbitrary arrests of journalists, protesters and civil society activists, as well as restrictions on media publications. The UNAMA report places particular emphasis on two agencies of the Afghan Interim Government — the Ministry of Advocacy, Virtue and Prevention of Evil and the General Directorate of Intelligence of the Afghan Interim Government. Many of the directives issued by the former restrict the human rights and freedoms of Afghans, especially women and girls. The officials of the General Directorate of Intelligence were particularly harsh on those deprived of their liberty. The UNAMA report details instances of the involvement of the General Directorate of Intelligence in violations of the human rights of individuals in detention, including extrajudicial executions, torture and ill-treatment, and arbitrary arrest and detention.

It is difficult to integrate into the international community and has constant conflicts with neighboring countries

Due to its adherence to a backward ideology and political system, the Taliban regime remains isolated in the international community and has many conflicts with neighboring countries.

First, the Taliban, which has not yet been recognized by any country in the international community, remains in isolation that lacks international legitimacy. During the first Taliban administration from 1996 to 2001, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Pakistan recognized the Taliban regime and established diplomatic relations with Afghanistan, but since the establishment of the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" in August 2021, the Afghan Taliban regime has not been recognized by any country, and the fundamental reason is that the Islamist nature of the Taliban regime, the lack of inclusiveness of the government, the conservative and backward social management, and the serious restrictions on civil rights, especially women's rights, The relationship with extremist organizations is not clear, etc.

In response to the taliban regime's plight, Sayed Ishaq Gailani, leader of the Afghan National Unity Movement, noted that the establishment of an inclusive government to protect human rights, women's rights, and address girls' education is an issue that the Afghan interim government must address but has not yet addressed. International relations scholar Wali Forouzan also said: "The Taliban have actively tried to engage with the international community through diplomatic means, but without success, because Afghanistan is still not truly recognized because of the restrictions imposed on women, youth and the media." These restrictions must be removed. ”

Second, after the withdrawal of the United States, the attention of the United States and the West to Afghanistan has been declining, and with the West shifting its strategic focus to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the great power game, Afghanistan is becoming an "outcast" of the West. The RAND report argues that U.S. policy toward the Afghan Taliban regime faces three options: engagement, isolation, and opposition, and with the closure of the U.S. Embassy in Afghanistan and the Taliban regime sanctioned by the United States, the isolation policy is the most likely policy measure for the U.S. government in the future. On August 4, the website of the French weekly magazine Viewpoint published a review by Luc de Baroche, "Afghanistan, a trap facing the West", and the author pointed out that the Western countries have taken their eyes off Afghanistan. They no longer want to have anything to do with a country that has allowed them to invest so much in 20 years. "The withdrawal of the Western countries from Kabul as a whole marked the end of a historical cycle that began 20 years ago." It is this Western approach that has led to "Afghanistan's economy collapsing." The banking system has collapsed and foreign investment has dried up. Financial assistance from the international community has been significantly reduced. ”

Finally, the Taliban regime has strained relations with neighboring countries, and even armed conflict.

The Taliban has long been supported by Pakistan, but after the Taliban came to power, the relations between the two sides continued to be tense due to the "PakistanI Taliban" issue, and the two countries repeatedly clashed and even exchanged fire on the border. The Taliban and Iranian forces clashed twice in the border area on December 1 and March 7, 2021, resulting in dozens of casualties. On January 3, 2022, the Taliban clashed with the Turkmenistan Border Guard in northern Afghanistan. In addition, Afghanistan has clashed with Uzbekistan over the ownership of the helicopter gunships of the former Afghan Government forces, and the Taliban have made serious threats against Uzbekistan as a result of Uzbekistan's public refusal to return the helicopter gunships of the former Afghan Government forces.

In short, after achieving military victory and regaining power in Afghanistan, the Taliban fell into difficulties and confusion due to the abandonment of Afghanistan by the West, the lack of its own governance ability, ideological conservatism, and the loss of development paths. There is a serious paradox in the Taliban's domestic and foreign policies: if the Taliban wants to integrate into the international community, it must pursue a policy of inclusiveness and moderation to achieve true ethnic reconciliation and national reconstruction, but the Taliban's Islamist nature determines that it cannot abandon its conservative or even extreme statecraft, thus plunging it into a crisis of both domestic and international legitimacy.

In response to afghanistan under the Taliban, a U.N. official commented that the Taliban "have not really determined how they plan to move the country forward, in fact they have not even made a decision." Graeme Smith, an expert at the International Crisis Group, also noted: "The future situation in Afghanistan remains very uncertain, mainly because the Taliban have not yet decided what kind of path they will plan for this new government." Once in power, some Taliban members seemed a bit disoriented as they adjusted to the dramatic change from militants to interim government officials. ”

Source: The Paper