Does the United States impose new export controls on technologies such as fourth-generation semiconductors, targeting China?

【Text/Observer Network Lv Dong Editor/Zhou Yuanfang】

In the field of advanced technology such as semiconductors, the United States frequently uses administrative means to intervene in normal market competition. A few days ago, Biden just signed a $280 billion chip bill to restrict semiconductor giants from investing in China, and in the blink of an eye, the US Department of Commerce has imposed export controls on several new technologies.

On August 12, local time, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce issued an announcement saying that four "emerging and basic technologies" would be included in the new export controls for national security reasons. The four technologies are: gallium oxide and diamond, the fourth-generation semiconductor materials that can withstand high temperatures and high voltages; ECAD software specifically for chip designs up to 3nm; Pressure gain combustion technology for rockets and hypersonic systems.

Although BIS does not directly mention China, Yang Jie, a senior partner at Huiye Law Firm, pointed out to the Observer Network that China now belongs to one of the countries listed by the United States as one of the countries listed by the United States as national security control, as long as the technology and items are listed by the US government in the export control directory, there is a high probability that restrictions will be placed on China's exports, such as the need for licenses for US companies to export to China, which will actually cause further decoupling between China and the United States in the semiconductor field.

Image source: BIS

In his announcement, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Commerce Alan Estevez declared that export controls in the United States were imposed to allow "companies around the world to operate on a level playing field." He mentioned that technological advances have made technologies such as semiconductors and engines run faster, more efficiently and more durable, and even under harsher conditions, which could make them "game-changers" in the commercial and military realms.

In its announcement, BIS claimed that the inclusion of four technologies that support the production of advanced semiconductors and gas turbine engines in export controls was the result of an agreement reached by the 42 participating countries of the Wassenaar Agreement at a december 2021 plenary meeting. In addition, the United States is regulating additional technologies, including equipment, software, and technologies for semiconductor production, beyond the items agreed in the Wassenaar Accord.

Although the United States is under the banner of 42 countries, foreign media such as the Russian satellite network have long revealed that the Wassenaar Agreement is actually completely controlled by the United States. When a country in the agreement intends to export a certain high-tech to China, the United States even directly intervenes. For example, when the Czech Republic planned to export "passive radar equipment" to China, the United States put pressure on the Czech Republic to stop the transaction.

"Export controls are a means for the United States to compete with other countries," Yang Jie pointed out to the Observer Network, considering that China is increasing its investment in semiconductors, and the United States is trying to hinder the development speed of China's semiconductor industry in order to maintain its own advantages.

Foreign scholars have written articles attacking the U.S. use of sanctions sticks at every turn, saying that if the United States wants to maintain its position as a world leader in the electronics industry, it can invest more in future technological knowledge and thus match China. So why is the United States taking the sanctions route? Because sanctions are easier to enforce, it is more difficult to build a society that values knowledge. This is the pathology of late capitalism.

In the announcement, BIS presented details of the four latest regulated technologies (supplemented by Observer Network).

Gallium Oxide (Ga2O3) and diamond

BiS announced that gallium oxide and diamond are semiconductor materials that can operate under harsher conditions, can withstand higher voltages or higher temperatures, and the equipment produced from these materials has higher military potential.

According to the material properties, semiconductor substrates can currently be roughly divided into four generations:

The first generation is represented by silicon (Si) and germanium (Ge), which are mainly used in low-voltage, low-frequency, low-power partial power devices and integrated circuits;

The second generation is represented by gallium arsenide (GaAs), indium phosphide (InP), etc., and is widely used in the field of optoelectronics and microelectronics;

The third generation is represented by wide bandgap semiconductors such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN), which have significant advantages in dielectric constant, thermal conductivity and operating temperature, and have been gradually applied in 5G communications, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics and other fields;

Gallium oxide, diamond, etc. are regarded as fourth-generation semiconductor materials.

Professor Li Chengming of the University of Science and Technology Beijing once introduced that gallium oxide is a new type of ultra-wide bandgap semiconductor material, compared with silicon carbide and gallium nitride, the bandgap width of gallium oxide reaches 4.9eV, which is higher than the 3.25eV of silicon carbide and the 3.4eV of gallium nitride, ensuring its anti-irradiation and high temperature resistance, and can maintain stable properties in extreme environments such as high temperature and strong radiation; Its high breakdown field strength ensures that the prepared gallium oxide device can be used at ultra-high voltages, which is conducive to improving the efficiency of carrier collection.

According to the global market forecast of the market research company Fuji Economy for wide bandgap power semiconductor components in June 2019, the market size of gallium oxide power components will reach 154.2 billion yen (about 9.28 billion yuan) in 2030, which even exceeds the size of gallium nitride power components (108.5 billion yen, about 6.51 billion yuan).

At present, major enterprises, universities and research institutes that conduct research on gallium oxide have high hopes for the performance of gallium oxide, but many key bottlenecks need to be solved before they are truly practically applied. There are two main obstacles encountered in research and development, one is the production of large-size high-quality monocrystalline, only Japanese companies have developed 6-inch monocrystalline crystals, but they have not yet achieved batch supply. Second, gallium oxide materials are still in the laboratory stage of research and development of high-power, high-efficiency electronic devices, and there is still a lack of large-scale practical applications.

China's Ministry of Science and Technology has included gallium oxide in the "14th Five-Year Plan for Key Research and Development" this year. At present, the United States is vigorously developing gallium oxide materials from the perspective of cutting-edge military technology layout. The U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory, the U.S. Naval Laboratory, and NASA are actively seeking to collaborate with U.S. universities and global companies to develop gallium oxide power devices that are resistant to higher voltages, smaller size, and more radiation.

It should be pointed out that although there is a generational division in semiconductor substrate materials, it cannot be generally considered that "the latter generation is superior to the previous generation". The second and third generations of semiconductors cannot replace the first generation of semiconductors, but are applied in different fields according to the characteristics of different materials.

Electronic Computer-Aided Design (ECAD)

ECAD is a class of software tools for designing, analyzing, optimizing, and verifying the performance of integrated circuits or printed circuit boards.

BiS announced that the ECAD software, which is included in the scope of regulation, is specifically used to develop software with a full gate field effect transistor (GAAFET) structure integrated circuit.

GaAFET transistor structure is the key to achieving technology nodes of 3nm and below. The technology enables the production of faster, more energy-efficient, and more radiation-resistant integrated circuits that can be used to advance many commercial and military applications, including defense and communications satellites.

In June this year, Samsung has used GAAFET technology to mass-produce 3nm process chips, and has not yet released a specific customer list. TSMC has announced that the 3nm process will still use a FinFET transistor structure, and the GAAFET structure will be used as early as the 2nm process.

Some semiconductor industry media have written that chips made of GAAFET transistor structures are expected to increase performance by 25% and reduce power consumption by 50%. With The FinFET architecture, the performance and power consumption improvements are roughly in the range of 15% to 20%. But the difficulty and cost of the two technologies should not be the same.

Zhan Kai, a senior consultant at Yuanda Law Firm, pointed out to Observer.com that the ECAD software used to develop GAAFET transistor structures will be added to the Commercial Control List (CCL) under the new export control classification number 3D006. For countries with an "X" in the NS column, this will require an export license for national security (NS) and counterterrorism (AT) reasons, including China, which is also a restricted country.

He believes that it is more difficult for the United States to strictly restrict the EDA field, which will bring great harm to the semiconductor industry, which is already facing serious uncertainty. The interim ban adopted by the United States is consistent with the previous judgment, mainly aimed at the ECAD of the "3nm and below" advanced process, rather than the EAD products that need to be used by all product lines and industrial chains. From this point of view, the export control policy of the US side's "small courtyard and high wall" has not changed.

At present, a number of EDA manufacturers such as BGI Nine Days, Guangli Micro, Qiulun Electronics, Core and Semiconductor have emerged in China. However, BGI Jiutian, which is regarded as the leader of domestic EDA, revealed in the prospectus last year that the company's existing analog circuit design and verification tools do not yet support advanced process design of 16nm and below.

Source: BGI Nine Days Prospectus

Pressure Gain Combustion (PGC)

BiS announced that pressure gain combustion technology has a wide range of application potential in the land and aerospace fields, involving applications including rockets and hypersonic systems. In 2020, the National Academy of Sciences listed technologies such as pressure gain combustion as one of the top ten priority research areas for advanced gas turbines. The technology uses a variety of physical phenomena, including resonant pulse combustion, volumetric combustion, and knocking, to cause the effective pressure through the burner to rise while consuming the same amount of combustion, potentially increasing the efficiency of gas turbine engines by more than 10%. However, BIS has not yet been able to confirm that any engines in production use the technology, but there have been numerous studies pointing to potential production.

According to the BIS announcement, export controls on gallium oxide, diamond and pressure gain combustion technologies will take effect on August 15 this year, and export controls on ECAD software will take effect 60 days after August 15 this year.

Yang Jie told the Observer Network that after these four technologies are included in the new export controls by the United States, the US government may set new licenses and requirements. The serious impact on US national security mentioned by THE BIS is often a certain threat to the military superiority of the United States. In the future, it is not ruled out that the United States will incorporate more new technologies and new items with certain advantages into export controls, thereby strengthening the suppression of China.

He analyzed that the export control of the United States is to set different control requirements for different items and different end users. For example, the same semiconductor material may not require a special license if it is exported to the UK, but if it is exported to China, a special license may be required. It is even possible to ban exports to China, like some Chinese companies on the entity list, which are likely to be unable to obtain licenses.

"For Chinese companies, if the United States accelerates decoupling from China in the semiconductor field in the future, Chinese companies may accelerate de-beautification on the one hand, that is to say, in the semiconductor field, they must minimize their dependence on the United States." On the other hand, it should also be noted that if there are any enterprises that are subject to U.S. sanctions among the suppliers, once they conduct related transactions with companies subject to U.S. sanctions, they may also be subject to U.S. sanctions. Yang Jie analyzed.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has long made clear its attitude toward the frequent use of export controls and other means by the United States to suppress Chinese enterprises: the United States has used national power to generalize national security, and constantly abuse measures such as export controls to suppress and contain specific enterprises in other countries, which is a serious violation of free trade rules, a serious threat to the security of the global industrial chain supply chain, and a serious damage to the well-being and interests of the people of all countries, including the United States.

Although in the current environment, the probability of the United States continuing to suppress China's related industries is very high, some insiders pointed out to the Observer Network that the means that the United States can use are actually relatively limited, and it is impossible to easily let a certain company "close the door" as US Commerce Secretary Raymondo said.

First of all, the global semiconductor industry is inseparable from the cooperation of China's semiconductor industry. Dutch lithography giant Asmail has bluntly said that if the United States forces the company to stop selling its mainstream lithography equipment to Chinese mainland, the global semiconductor supply chain will face disruption, and American companies will become victims. At present, the concentration of semiconductor manufacturing in East Asia is not only the choice of the US industry, but also the most efficient way to allocate resources globally.

Second, the U.S. government's attempt to rebuild its homegrown semiconductor manufacturing industry is not necessarily in line with the position of all American capital, or even with the position of American workers. During the Trump administration, they tried to pressure manufacturing to return to the United States, but they had a hard time convincing ordinary people to go to the automobile manufacturing industry, the steel industry and the more technological semiconductor manufacturing industry. First, because semiconductor manufacturing requires high-intensity work, and second, talent training cannot be completed in a short period of time.

"U.S. interference will always exist, but the specific role is not so exaggerated." The above-mentioned industry insiders believe that semiconductors play a vital role in the development of the entire national economy and industry, and China's semiconductor industry should be prepared for long-term hard work and hard work, and cannot be in a hurry.

"I think the semiconductor industry is not a competition between people and people, or even a competition between enterprises, but a competition between countries." He pointed out that the support of domestic policies for the semiconductor industry is far from over, "compared with the support for high-speed rail, photovoltaic and other industries in those years, there are still many cards to be done in terms of policy, and there is still a lot of work to be done, and the future of China's semiconductors is still full of hope." ”

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