When it comes to the century-old changes and the restructuring of the global order, I am afraid that no one will think of Turkey, but the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has turned Turkey into a balancer between Russia and the United States and the West, and has become an important force in the reconstruction of the global order.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov (left) with Turkish Foreign Minister Cavushoglu
Turkey is Russia undercover in NATO?
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Turkey first joined the Western camp and strongly condemned Russia, but it was independent of the Western camp and did not participate in various sanctions against Russia. With the further development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Turkey has become a mediator between Russia and Ukraine.
But the role of "mediator" is only suitable for "outsiders". It is difficult to be on the sidelines to have a direct impact on the situation, let alone to obtain benefits. At a time when the sanctions were having little effect and nato groups were preparing to admit Finland and Sweden as members as "major geostrategic victories" against Russia, Turkey suddenly threatened to exercise veto power over Finland and Sweden. Although Turkey finally released Finland and Sweden at the NATO summit in Madrid and voted in favor, it still needs the approval of parliament, which is equivalent to still holding the "life gate" of Finland and Switzerland to enter NATO.
Turkey's "turmoil" has made the NATO bloc angry, even out of anger. The U.S. Fox News website was titled "Is Turkey Russia's undercover in NATO?" For the title, it focused on publishing the verbal criticism of Turkey by various experts and celebrities in the United States. Marshall Billingsley, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and former ASSISTANT SECRETARy-General of NATO, said: "Turkey is playing the trick it has always played in the region, and it only cares about its own interests, whether or not such interests run counter to NATO's interests." ”
NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg
Daniel Pipes, chairman of the Philadelphia Middle East Forum, was even more blunt about Turkey: "It's time to expel Turkey from NATO, let it go to Russia, let it go to China." Go early and get rid of it early". Pipes further noted that "in the last 20 years, Turkey has gone bad, it has pursued a policy of hostility to NATO, it has been aggressive toward NATO members (such as Greece), it has invaded Syria, threatening Europe with Syrian refugees."
Turkey's "veto" of Finland and Sweden joining NATO should be based on a full assessment and grasp of the relationship between the NATO bloc and Russia: Erdogan realized that no matter how humble he is to the West, as the Turkish scholar Ilhan Uzgel pointed out, he will not be welcomed by the NATO bloc. But even if he goes a little too far, the NATO bloc can't do anything about him, as long as this "excess" is kept within a certain range, that is, not directly on the opposite side of the Western bloc, on the side of Russia. Therefore, Erdogan's strategy is to be harsh and tough on the Western bloc in order to obtain more benefits, be relatively friendly to Russia, or "help" in key places, so as to accumulate "merit" for future benefits from Russia. The lack of participation in sanctions against Russia is one manifestation, and the signing of a grain export agreement through mediation is a second manifestation.
Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations quartet signed parallel agreements on grain exports
The signing of the grain export agreement highlights Turkey's role as a great power
In the eyes of the world, Turkey is good at engaging in "trading" in diplomacy, and to put it mildly, it is engaged in "opportunistic" diplomacy. Turkey has its geopolitical and identity advantages, and can arbitrarily switch between Russia-made United States, Russian-made Europe and European-American Russia, this switch and transaction seem to be easy, the essence of which is that "weak countries have no diplomacy", or diplomacy cannot be independent, and they have to try to survive in the cracks of major powers to ensure their own interests. However, if we fully define Turkey's policy orientation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as "transactional diplomacy", I am afraid that we will fall into a misjudgment of Turkey's strategic position.
On July 22, under the mediation of Turkey and UN Secretary-General António Guterres, Russia and Ukraine signed grain export agreements with the UN and Turkey in Istanbul. The so-called "unprecedented" agreement is the first major agreement between Russia and Ukraine since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It has given the Middle East and African countries, which are on the verge of starvation, hope of a full meal. In Guterres's words, it is a "beacon of hope."
On July 27, the Black Sea Joint Coordination Center for Grain Shipment was officially established in Istanbul, Turkey
Erdogan's help in reaching a grain export agreement can be said to kill three birds with one stone: First, to a considerable extent, it helped Turkey "wash away" the stereotype of "transaction diplomacy" and show Turkey's "global responsibility", especially compared with other European countries that only seek Russia's gas substitution and have no international moral responsibility.
Second, put gold in Putin's face, because this agreement helps Putin blame the "food crisis" on the Western bloc, that is, Russia never wanted to create a food crisis, and it was the NATO bloc and Ukraine that made it impossible to ship food.
Third, Turkey's interests are secured. According to the United Nations World Food Programme, as many as 50 million people in 45 countries around the world are on the brink of famine, and these populations are mainly concentrated in Africa, where 18 million people face severe hunger in the Horn of Africa alone. You know, in the past decade, Turkey has been gradually improving its image in Africa, Erdogan has visited Africa as many as 30 times since he came to power, and Africa has become an important part of Turkey's international influence. According to the Economist review article, Turkish builders are "on the rise" in Africa and have become the only country that can compete with China. Therefore, the direct benefit of the agreement on the delivery of food to the outside world is the affected countries in Africa, and Turkey can make a lot of money in Africa! It is no wonder that the Turkish media saw the signing of the grain export agreement as a "major victory for Turkish diplomacy".
President Of Turkey Erdogan
Turkey is becoming an important force in building the global order
During the Cold War, the direction of Turkey's foreign policy was completely determined by the structure and systematization at the international level, and Turkey's diplomacy could not be autonomous, let alone long-sleeved and good at dancing. Since Erdogan and the AKP came to power, Turkey has pursued an independent foreign policy, not only actively participating in the Affairs of the Middle East, but also focusing on Africa and the East. Western society is very dissatisfied with Turkey's increasingly "deviated" foreign policy, so it has been labeled "neo-Ottomanism" and "pan-Islamism". We should be particularly cautious about these clichés.
In 2012, Then-Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu wrote a report on Global Governance. He pointed out that the Napoleonic Wars led Europe to sign the Vienna Protocol in 1815, the "League of Nations" after World War I, and the United Nations after World War II, but since the end of the Cold War, no new international order has been established, and the original "United Nations system can neither adapt to the current political situation nor solve the growing global challenges." He believes that we should pay attention to the constructive relationship between regional organizations in the development of the regional order, and regard the EU and the African Union as models, and also believe that the ancient Silk Road can also provide an important reference for global governance, because it is a "path of peace". Davutoglu's views provide an important perspective for us to understand Turkish diplomacy since the AKP came to power, and we can further understand why President Erdogan has always criticized the United Nations, especially the permanent membership system of the Security Council, why Turkey will lead the establishment of Turkic-speaking countries, why Turkey is so enthusiastic about the Belt and Road Initiative, and of course, why Turkey has taken a maverick position in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Since 2021, Turkey has repaired diplomatic relations with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, and relations with Iran have also risen to new heights at the recent Turkish-Russian-Iranian summit. Of course, whether Turkey's foreign policy can completely get rid of the tight curse imposed by the United States ultimately depends on economic strength, and in this regard, the development of Sino-Turkish relations should be able to make great achievements.
Author: Guo Changgang (Director, Institute of History, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences)
Editor: Lu Shuwen
Photo: Xinhua News Agency