【Article/Observer Network Columnist Shi Yang】
This week, although Russia and Ukraine are still at war in the direction of Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Armenia have resumed conflicts, and even Serbia and Kosovo have once come to the brink of war, but for the entire Indo-Pacific region and even the world, the most important military news is undoubtedly the series of military operations in the Taiwan Strait region triggered by the visit of U.S. House speaker Pelosi to Taiwan Province on August 2.
On August 5, 2022, our warship was less than 12 kilometers away from the eastern part of Taiwan Island in a straight line
On Monday, August 1, U.S. House speaker Pelosi took off from Guam on a U.S. Air Force Boeing C-40C executive airliner and arrived in Singapore later in the same day, followed by a special plane on August 2, first visiting Malaysia, and then taking off from Singapore at 4 p.m. on the same day, circling the entire South China Sea airspace, circling the sea over Indonesia and the Philippines, and arriving at Taipei Songshan Airport, which is not mentioned in her public itinerary, at 22:45 that night. A visit to Taiwan lasted less than 20 hours.
In that sense, Pelosi's visit dealt a heavy blow to the few remaining strategic mutual trust between China and the United States since 2016:
Long before Pelosi canceled her plan to visit Taiwan in April 2022 because of her covid-19 infection, the Chinese government issued a solemn warning to Pelosi through various channels; After the news of Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan, the statements and warnings of the Chinese government and media from top to bottom are also extremely clear; At the same time, President Xi Jinping had a telephone conversation with US President Joe Biden on the evening of July 28, in which Biden clearly expressed his willingness to reiterate that the US one-China policy has not changed and will not change, and the US side does not support Taiwan's "independence"; Under the incomparably clear attitude and consensus of the two sides at the top level, the US government finally allowed the speaker of the House of Representatives of the same Democratic Party to visit Taiwan, which undoubtedly completely undermined biden's previous commitment and was also the origin of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's accusations of "perfidy" against the US side.
Of course, the US side is still using various excuses to shirk its own serious responsibility in this incident. In addition to the ridiculous so-called "separation of powers and mutual jurisdiction" of the United States, there are also such statements as US Secretary of State Blinken's so-called "having informed the Chinese side Pelosi in advance that it is going to visit", and the so-called "The White House and the days have tried to prevent Pelosi from visiting Taiwan, but Pelosi said that only Biden personally requested it to consider cancellation, and Biden has been positive for the new crown and cannot personally dissuade Pelosi to make it happen".
These arguments, which are desperately looking for various technical details to justify the actions of the United States, are quite absurd in the japanese right-wing forces reflecting on the so-called "if the edict declaring war on the United States can be submitted to the United States on time before the attack on Pearl Harbor, we will not be fighting without declaration."
After Pelosi left Taiwan Province of China after completing his visit, the US government's statement was even more ridiculous.
On the one hand, Blinken "transgressed" the order of succession of the US Government Cabinet when the president could not see things, overturned the attitude of the speaker of the House of Representatives who ranked first two times, and said that the US one-China policy has not changed and the United States does not support Taiwan independence; on the other hand, the evil people sued first and "hoped that Beijing would not create a crisis or find excuses to increase its aggressive military activities." This emphasis on "leaving aside the facts, hitting people is wrong" and the attitude of the US top brass in reversing the Taiwan issue, which is China's core interest, make the United States look like a clown jumping beam, and naturally can only make the already extremely difficult Sino-US mutual trust issue worse.
The sophistry on the American side is infuriating
One of the results of this loss of mutual trust is the eight countermeasures announced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on August 5, including the cancellation of the arrangement of telephone calls between the leaders of the Sino-US military theater, the work meeting between the Us and Chinese Ministries of Defense, and the meeting of the Sino-US Maritime Military Security Consultation Mechanism, and the suspension of Sino-US cooperation in the repatriation of illegal immigrants, Sino-US cooperation in criminal justice assistance, Sino-US cooperation in combating transnational crime, Sino-US anti-drug cooperation, and Sino-US climate change negotiations. Considering that many of these contact mechanisms are means of communication established between China and the United States at the end of the last century, it is clear that Sino-US relations have been seriously regressed as a result of Pelosi's visit.
Compared with military operations, these political and diplomatic aspects may not seem exciting enough, but to some extent, they are the foundation of Sino-US relations, and in the case of this series of foundations being undermined by Pelosi, the internal logic of the actions taken by China and the United States in the military field has changed.
From the perspective of the US military, the US military itself bears direct responsibility for ensuring Pelosi's visit. The US military not only provided Pelosi with a special plane for the visit, but also used the "Reagan" aircraft carrier strike group and the "Tripoli" amphibious assault ship and its carrier-based aircraft, which were on cruise missions in the western Pacific, for the air support of the whole process of Pelosi's visit. Admiral Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, once publicly stated that "the ballast stone and stabilizer of the relationship between the two countries in sino-US military relations", but on the issue of Pelosi's visit, the ballast stone swayed with Pelosi, and the result was naturally to set off a bigger storm in the relations between the two countries.
Although after Pelosi's visit, the US military seemed to remember its "stabilizer" duty again, not only did the "Reagan" aircraft carrier strike group, which was originally cruising in the waters east of Taiwan, move northeastward, far away from the Taiwan Strait, and retreat to the waters south of The Japanese island of Honshu, leaving only the amphibious assault ship "Tripoli" with relatively limited situational awareness and combat capabilities and various REconnaissance aircraft of the US military to monitor the PLA's exercises, and even the time for the White House dialect to cross the Taiwan Strait could only be vaguely said to be "within a few weeks." ；
The U.S. military top brass also seemed to be reminded of the existence of direct telephone between the Two U.S. and Chinese militaries, and several times this week tried to "hotline communication" with the PLA top brass — and the result was undoubtedly that no one answered. Considering that the meeting of the Sino-US maritime military security consultation mechanism has been suspended, the security uncertainty of the current activities of US warships and aircraft in the Western Pacific will be rapidly magnified, if some of the original border-skimming behavior can be made small through the communication mechanism between the two militaries, the current actions of the US military must be doubly careful, to prevent themselves from being blamed at every turn, and become a direct case of the PLA's determination and ability to safeguard national sovereignty.
From the perspective of the Platon Army, although this military operation was cleverly regarded by some analysts on the island of Taiwan as Chinese mainland's so-called "anger into anger" and "saving face," regardless of its operational purpose or actual value, the PLA's series of actual combat exercises were carried out in a closer place to the battlefield and in a way closer to actual combat, and while further familiarizing themselves with the preset battlefield environment and refining their actual combat skills, they gave corresponding deterrence and warning to the Taiwan authorities and the United States.
As of Saturday, the Plakmen's Liberation Army (PLA) had thrown in units of all branches of the armed forces, carried out live-fire operations including long-range rocket artillery and ballistic missiles, air campaign operations of multiple aircraft types and large aircraft groups of aviation units, including unmanned aerial vehicles, and formed multiple ship formations to jointly seal and control multiple ship formations, simulate land strikes, comprehensive attack and defense, joint anti-submarine and other real-combat exercises, and other related exercises. Marines and Army units will most likely also conduct a series of combat-oriented exercises, including emergency loading and amphibious landings. This series of large-scale military combat operations was carried out rapidly around the Taiwan Strait in a way that lacked careful preparations, which helped our army to familiarize itself with the special situation of the preset theater and at the same time directly train troops with the Taiwan army as the opponent.
Old hypersonic missiles crossing the island are our attitude
Create a favorable situation for unification
In this round of exercises, a rather rare situation is that our army confidently displayed the topography and landforms of Taiwan Island and various targets, as well as the whispers of the Taiwan army that it encountered, including the PLA's visual confirmation of the "Taiwan ship, to all circles." For a long time in the past, such taiwan warship shadows or Taiwan landmarks could often only be archived as records or quietly displayed in the historical museum of the troops' secrets because of their secrets.
This publicity not only clearly shows at home and abroad the extent to which our military's fighter planes are close to Taiwan Island in this round, but also effectively deters the separatist forces and foreign interference forces on Taiwan Island in the most direct form, but also boosts the public opinion and morale of the people who were once passive because of Pelosi's visit.
Although such an action is more of a carry-on shooting during a real-combat exercise, far from being carefully arranged and carefully filmed for the sake of pictures and propaganda effects, it is precisely this kind of aerial photography that looks a little "careless" or even "earthy" that on the contrary reflects the fundamental purpose of our army's exercise and training operation close to Taiwan Island, which is "actual combat" rather than "showmanship."
"Taiwan Ship"
From this point of view, both our news media and the non-governmental organizations are highly concerned about issues such as whether the PLA ballistic missiles flew over the island of Taiwan, how close our warplanes are to Taiwan Island when they look at the central mountains and coastline of Taiwan Island, whether the destroyers of the People's Navy entered the 12-nautical-mile range around Taiwan Island when they confronted each other, and many observers who are angry or even disappointed by the failure of the Chinese mainland to intercept Pelosi. It is even regarded as some key contents as the only sign of the success or failure of the PLA's exercises.
However, in the author's opinion, since the military operation around the Taiwan Strait is not a real attack on Taiwan but a real combat military operation with a demonstration nature, its military value must be the most important, and as for the military deterrent effect on the UNITED States and Taiwan, it is obvious that the existing degree of action has been fully achieved.
From the perspective of the Taiwan military, the PLA's action this time seems to be "expected" by the Taiwan military, but there is no doubt that it is "unexpected" by most of the Taiwan people who are concerned about this situation. Although the media on the island believe that the PLA will not be so real this time, as far as the last straw of the Taiwan independence forces is concerned, the Taiwan military has to play a twelve-point spirit to face the sudden increase in military threats.
On the occasion of Pelosi's visit, the Taiwan military mobilized some of its fighter strength in advance to the direction of Hualien in Taitung to enhance the relatively weak air defense operation and interception combat capability in this regard; in addition, the beginning of August coincided with the end of less than a week after the end of the phase of the Taiwan army's "Han Guang 38" military exercise, and the strength of the Taiwan army's army, navy, and air force, especially the navy and air force, was at the peak of its combat strength, which was properly replenished and maintained, and all units of the Taiwan army were able to redeploy combat troops at a relatively fast speed. It is used to respond to large-scale actual combat exercises of the People's Liberation Army.
Although the Taiwan Navy's ships are old, "the whole family is on the battlefield"
Among them, the more obvious of this is the high attendance rate of the Taiwan Navy when facing the approaching of the Plakmen on all sides.
According to The Taiwan side, on the first day that the PLA Navy's strength appeared around the island of Taiwan, the Taiwan military dispatched more than 10 large and medium-sized surface ships for the tracking and so-called "removal" of PLA ships. Including Taiwan's self-built "Chenggong" class frigates, "Kangding" class frigates imported from France, and the US-made "Jiyang" class frigates, and even the patrol ships of Taiwan's "Coast Guard" have all participated in the operation. Although in the simple tracking voyage, as long as it is not too violently chased or driven, it is not inevitable that the Taiwan military will use them to show its existence. However, compared with the PLA's 052C/D guided-missile destroyers and 054A guided-missile frigates, these Taiwan warships are old, in poor condition, and backward in performance, especially the large rust marks on the "Lanyang" frigate that were photographed by the PLA, which undoubtedly showed the poor combat readiness of those warships of the Taiwan military that did not participate in the exercise.
Although the Taiwan media claimed that the so-called use of the Hsiung-ji anti-ship missile locked on the PLA ships, and began to make up the same "great victory story" as the Ukrainian missile sank the Russian cruiser "Moscow" during the Third Civil Revolutionary War, even Taiwanese military experts with a certain degree of knowledge understand that these Taiwan ships can still be mobilized, only because it is not really the moment of decisive battle.
As Taiwan's former pride, the performance of Taiwan's air force and its air defense system in the face of PLA exercises is even more intriguing. On the one hand, Taiwan's Air Force has long undertaken tracking and dispersing operations against the PLA's approaching fleet within the so-called "Air Defense Identification Zone"; On the other hand, in this response, Taiwan's Air Force is the one with the most "flaws." Because the PLA has confidently disclosed a lot of information on the scale of missile tests and dispatches, coupled with the addition of some of the surveillance information of the Japanese Ministry of Defense to the PLA's operations from the direction of Okinawa, the information released by the Taiwan military on PLA fighters is no longer as difficult to distinguish between true and false as in the past, and the Taiwan military's ability to grasp the area around the Taiwan Strait, especially the direction of the Taiwan Strait, is also a big surprise:
Our army dispatched at least one J-16 brigade and one J-20 brigade
On august 4, our army reported on a news broadcast that more than 100 fighters were dispatched to participate in the operation in the direction of the Taiwan Strait, announcing multi-type fighters including J-20, J-16, and oil-carrying-20, and even the PLA's air police-200 early warning aircraft opened the transponder to show existence during the operation, and the Japanese Ministry of Defense announced that at least 3 unmanned aerial vehicles of the PLA had reconnaissance activities over the eastern waters of Taiwan, and as a result, the Taiwan army only claimed to have found 22 PLA fighters on the inner side of the strait, and the rest of the targets were none;
On August 5, the People's Liberation Army announced that the fighters on the move saw the central mountain range and coastline of Taiwan at visual distance, and published relevant aerial photographs, resulting in the Taiwan military first announcing that there were 68 PLA fighters, but in the middle of the night, they shrank to 49 sorties, and the flight routes were far away from Taiwan Island;
No. 3
Number 4
On August 6, the People's Liberation Army continued to conduct exercises around the Taiwan Strait, dispatching a variety of aircraft, including air police-500 early warning aircraft, bomb-6K bombers, and Su-30 fighters. As for the J-20 fighters that have been installed in batches in the Eastern Theater, although our army has never hidden the information that it participated in this exercise, the Taiwan army still does not say a word, but the Taiwan military has "taken kickbacks on the deterrence of the Platon Army to the people of Taiwan." Where the J-20s are, how many are there, and how they fly, the Taiwan military may really not know.
What about the J-20?
Without knowing it, the Taiwan Air Force can only bluff by trying to put on a show, but in the eyes of professionals, even if it is carefully arranged, it is difficult to cover up the actual weakness of the Taiwan Air Force.
For example, on the morning of August 6, a number of Taiwan media claimed that four F-16V fighters carrying "Harpoon" anti-ship missiles appeared at the Hualien base of the Taiwan Air Force, and the reality was that "the Taiwan military has a complete set of response actions." However, the report introduced that the Hualien base suspended all general training tasks, all of them were converted to combat readiness tasks, and more than 10 combat readiness aircraft were prepared in the base, of which 4 were mounted with anti-ship missiles.
As a fighter wing with three fighter squadrons equipped with more than 50 F-16 fighters, the Fifth Tactical Mixed Wing of the Taiwan Military has only more than 10 combat readiness aircraft (mixed with the earlier F-16A/B and improved F-16V), except for 4 standby fighters with anti-ship missiles, in fact, only 2-3 four-aircraft formations of F-16 fighters can be used for emergency take-offs. In addition to revealing the relatively poor aircraft accuracy rate of the Hualien Fifth Wing, which is mixed with many old F-16A/B units, the reorganization on such a large scale also shows that the Taiwan military is not capable of intercepting the objective reality of intercepting PLA fighters training around Taiwan Island on a reciprocal basis.
Today is August 7, and if there is no news of a follow-up extension, at 12 o'clock on August 7, the PLA's military exercises in the demarcated area around the Taiwan Strait for several days will end, and all kinds of military operations around Taiwan Island have been going on before this round of exercises, and naturally they will not end with the end of the exercises.
Although the Seemingly Calm Taiwan Strait region has not changed in hard power because of Pelosi's visit, this round of the Taiwan Strait crisis has left an unforgettable mark in the minds of the people on both sides of the strait, and this short historical memory is also destined to leave a strong mark on the road to the irreversible reunification of the People's Republic of China.
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