【Text/Observer Network Columnist Xie Maosong】
Late on the night of August 2, many Chinese people continued to watch whether Pelosi would visit Taiwan and how China would respond strongly. How many people are disappointed and unhappy in their hearts. But things are far less simple than they seem, and strategic analysis is more about seeing the essence from the phenomenon.
In short, from the moment Pelosi landed in Taipei, the United States and the Tsai Ing-wen administration in Taiwan actually unilaterally took the initiative to break and change the status quo in Taiwan, so that China was forced to launch an anti-secession law and a reunification process at any time. Whether it is reunification by force or promoting reunification by force, it is all at my disposal and has full legitimate reasons.
After then-US President Donald Trump launched a trade war with China in 2018, Kissinger believed that Sino-US relations would never return to the past. This year marks the 50th anniversary of Nixon's visit to China, and Kissinger was an icebreaker a year earlier (1971) as a special envoy. At 10:43 p.m. on the 2nd, the moment Pelosi, the third person in the United States, landed at Taipei's Songshan Airport on the other side, the status quo of Taiwan was unilaterally changed by the United States and the Taiwan authorities, and it can never go back to the past. Kissinger, as an icebreaker in Sino-US relations 50 years ago, successive US presidents since Nixon have invited him to meet at the White House and consult his views on Sino-US relations, including the most unpredictable Trump, with the exception of the current US President Biden.
50 years ago and 50 years later, the initiative was the United States, but the choice made was reversed, fundamentally subordinate to what the United States believed to be its own national interests, this is the political realism in international relations, in fact, there is nothing to say, we must remain sober enough, which is also part of the strategic determination.
Nixon's visit to China 50 years ago and Pelosi's visit to Taiwan 50 years later are all major moments in world history, and they show different relationships between the two sides, which fundamentally expose the weakness of the us hegemonic and the old foreign power.
On February 21, 1972, U.S. President Richard Nixon arrived in Beijing and was welcomed by Premier Zhou Enlai and other Chinese leaders.
China's benevolence and righteousness are not reasonable and do not pay attention to the essence of US hegemony
When we warned Pelosi in various ways not to visit Taiwan, the most severe of them were the "Bury All Enemies who Come and Go" issued by the Eastern Theater, and the leaders and diplomats of China's neighboring countries such as Singapore, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian countries all gently dissuaded Pelosi, but Pelosi still insisted on landing at Songshan Airport at 10:43 p.m. on August 2. The Chinese people were momentarily filled with disappointment.
This cannot be simply and superficially interpreted as the invalidity of the warnings we made before; on the contrary, it highlights and thoroughly exposes the unreasonable and untrustworthy nature of US hegemony while highlighting our benevolence and righteousness, and it is even more 100% solid that the United States has unilaterally taken the initiative to change the status quo in Taiwan, and the hegemonic behavior of the United States unilaterally changing the status quo in Taiwan without reason, credit, and unpopularity has once again educated the Chinese people, so that all Chinese completely lose their illusions about the United States and its lackey, the Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen regime.
It also allowed us to win a political victory. A key point in our interpretation of Pelosi's landing in Taipei is to look at the problem from a deep perspective of political initiative. In fact, Pelosi's plane flew around the South China Sea in a big circle on the 2nd, which was shocked by the People's Liberation Army in the South China Sea exercise. And the US aircraft carrier has long been far away from the range of our Dongfeng missile.
At 22:56 on the evening of August 2, the Chinese Foreign Ministry first issued a statement, followed by a few minutes after the Xinhua News Agency was authorized to announce that the Chinese People's Liberation Army will conduct military exercises in the waters and airspace around Taiwan from 12:00 on August 4 to 12:00 on August 7, and announced the specific longitude and latitude coordinate maps.
However, only more than ten minutes later, the "authoritative release" of the Eastern Theater issued an updated news, and a spokesman for the Eastern Theater said that starting on the evening of 2 August, the Eastern Theater of the Chinese People's Liberation Army will carry out a series of joint military operations around Taiwan Island, conduct joint naval and air exercises in the airspace of the northern, southwestern, and southeastern seas of Taiwan Island, conduct long-range live fire in the Taiwan Strait, and organize test firing of regular-guided fire in the eastern waters of Taiwan Island. He also clearly pointed out that this action "is a solemn deterrent taken in response to the recent major escalation of the negative moves of the United States on the Taiwan issue, and a serious warning to the 'Taiwan independence' forces for their 'independence' behavior." ”
The People's Liberation Army conducted an important military exercise from 12:00 on August 4 to 12:00 on August 7. Pictured from Xinhua News Agency
The joint military operation was suddenly advanced to the night of the 2nd, an hour after Pelosi landed in Taipei. So instead of letting the bullets fly for another two days until August 4, the bullets flew more than ten minutes later and issued the latest major decision on the military exercise that night. This was in just ten minutes, because of the deep feeling of the people's hearts, the people's morale available, can be drummed up and can not be discouraged, so decisively made the first time to counter the military exercise. This is the call of the people, and it must be answered.
"Famous teachers": China is forced to launch anti-secession laws at any time
The United States may not fully listen to the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the subsequent statements of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the Ministry of National Defense, and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, but will only listen to what it understands. However, half an hour after Pelosi landed at Songshan Airport, the Eastern Theater announced military exercises around Taiwan Island, and the nearest exercise site was only nine nautical miles from Taiwan Island.
What the United States can understand with its familiar history and logic is that the moment Pelosi landed on Taiwan, the unilateral destruction and change of the status quo in Taiwan was as serious as the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Previously, most of Japan's scrap steel, copper, oil and other strategic materials came from the United States, and American companies made a lot of war money. After the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, no one dared to oppose the declaration of war on Japan, and the United States gathered the willpower of war against Japan and soon declared war on Japan.
China's assumption that it has unilaterally changed the status quo in Taiwan based on the untrustworthiness of the United States, and at the same time, based on the fact that the Tsai Ing-wen regime in Taiwan colluded with external forces to split the country, the Chinese Government and the Chinese people have completely "lost their illusions and prepared for struggle" with regard to the United States and the Tsai Ing-wen regime in Taiwan. At this point, China can launch the anti-secession law at any time and in substance, and China has a completely legitimate reason to start the anti-secession law at any time, that is, "the teacher is famous."
All this is entirely caused by the United States and the Tsai Ing-wen authorities in Taiwan, and the responsibility is entirely between the United States and the Tsai Ing-wen authorities. As for when China will launch the anti-secession law, it is entirely China's own business; However, how to launch the anti-secession law, whether it is military reunification, peaceful reunification, or using force to promote reunification, is even more flexible and changeable.
When China launches the anti-secession law, it will let the United States, which is behind Taiwan's instigation and support for Taiwan independence, fully and clearly understand four points: First, China has the ability to initiate reunification; second, China has the willpower to initiate reunification; third, China's reunification of Taiwan will not drag on for a long time, but can be done now, it can be substantively launched now, and it will not sit back and wait for the United States to cut sausages again and again; fourth, the responsibility for initiating reunification lies entirely in the United States to first unilaterally change the status quo and provoke and infringe on China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The United States underestimated China's determination to reunify Taiwan, and in its heart it did not dare to close Taiwan by force, so at noon on August 2, a CNN reporter interviewed Chinese Ambassador to the United States Qin Gangshi and asked, "Is the determination of the Chinese government and President Xi Jinping to recover Taiwan so firm?" Will force be used if necessary? "Such a question. Once China initiates reunification, China will declare to the United States that China's firm willpower to reunify Taiwan will be the same as the firm willpower of New China when it made the decision to resist US aggression and aid Korea.
Some people say that China is not ready to reunify Taiwan, and what is the standard for being prepared.
Were you ready for the Huaihai Campaign and the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea? Of course, this is not to say that it is an adventure, not a one-touch jump and desperate adventure, but a brave and strategic. In response to the intervention of external forces, the two areas of the northern part of Taiwan close to Okinawa are in response to the United States and Japan, the eastern region of Taiwan is to guard against the US troops in the direction of Guam Island, and the southern part is to guard against the US troops in the direction of Guam, and to the south is to guard against the US troops in the direction of Guam. The military exercises in six areas on all sides are a military total blockade and control of the sea and air of Taiwan Island, and the mainland's military strength has comprehensively crushed Taiwan, so such a sea and air blockade is equivalent to closing the door and hitting a dog and catching turtles in an urn.
Retired Lieutenant General Shuai Huamin of the Taiwan Military believes that Taiwan is an economy dominated by foreign trade, and its survival depends entirely on foreign trade, and if the blockade is not long, the impact is relatively small, but this is enough to warn the Taiwan authorities that if the situation in the Taiwan Strait further deteriorates, this blockade pattern will last longer, and if it lasts for a month, it will completely cut off the supply of strategic materials on Taiwan Island. It has indeed strangled Taiwan's foreign trade and energy channels economically. The current military exercise is a three-day blockade. Since it is okay to block for three days, it is only a minute to expand for two more days, or even to keep a blockade for seven days. At that time, will the small island of Taiwan, which does not have any strategic depth, still be a treasure island? If the blockade is half a month, a month, how will its stock market plummet, not to mention how its currently stretched energy and electricity supply will be stopped. At present, Taiwan's oil and gas reserves are only 7-10 days. This is one of the ways to play the future reunification of Taiwan, and this is the following Ming chess played like Chinese chess.
The blockade of the southeast, southwest, and northwest of Taiwan Island in recent days has in itself been an important part of the preparations for the reunification of Taiwan. The so-called preparation is constantly improved in the process of unification, is a dynamic development, and there is no imaginary comprehensive preparation. The process of liberating Taiwan is already in progress.
Follow-up effects: the beginning of the exercise's substantial control over Taiwan and China's strategic determination over the past decade
The moment Pelosi landed in Taipei, she took the initiative to unilaterally change the status quo in Taiwan, which is basically the United States' delusion to internationalize and Ukrainianize the Taiwan issue as China's internal affair, and vainly wants to make China make mistakes by provoking China and provoking China to overreact, which is already known to everyone in Sima Zhao's heart; At the same time, the separatists of Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen regime collude with external forces to split China, and it is also a matter of certainty that China can launch an anti-secession law at any time.
The military exercises in the Eastern Theater in the past few days have essentially blockaded Taiwan on all sides, and the Taiwan media said that it was "like a sea and air blockade of Taiwan for three days." The great significance of this military exercise is an active reshaping of the unified strategic environment and strategic pattern; in fact, it has completely broken through the so-called median line of the strait (Guo Zhengliang, a former Dpp member of Taiwan and a former deputy of the People's Republic of China, believes that "there may be no 'median line' between the two sides of the strait in the future), and has also completely broken through the so-called air defense identification zone delimited by Taiwan, and all this is the beginning of substantive control of Taiwan.
With this initiative, there will be a more active and resolute strategic shaping of "the magic of application and the unity of mind", which is the combination of "initiative, flexibility, and planning" proposed by Mao Zedong in "On Protracted War". Constantly strive for the initiative, create the initiative and strive to avoid passivity. And Chinese mainland all these practices are completely forced by china to do so after the United States and Taiwan unilaterally changed the status quo in Taiwan. The essence behind the phenomenon of pre-emptive and Chinese mainland-strike in the United States is the justice that China has always upheld. The latecomers are not only upholding peace and justice, but also resolutely safeguarding national interests.
This is also what the seventh gua gua gua of the Zhou Yi, the head of the five classics, the core of Chinese civilization, said: "Master, zhongye; Zhen, Masaya. Can the people be righteous, can be king, just in the middle and right, dangerous and smooth, so as to poison the world, and the people follow it, and what is the blame?"
China's late strike is not a big fight, but a very restrained one, knowing the way to survive and retreat, that is, the right way and the middle way, and will not be as remorseful as the United States. In the past decade, in the face of provocations and violations by neighboring countries against China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as in the face of Separatist forces in Hong Kong and Taiwan, China has blown several islands and reefs into islands in the South China Sea, and nationalized the Diaoyu Islands in the Face of Japan in the East China Sea. In 2019, when the United States and britain organized some Hong Kong independence elements behind Hong Kong to incite black riots, the central government resolutely intervened and introduced the National Security Law, which effectively implemented the central government's comprehensive control over Hong Kong. Now in the face of the United States and Taiwan Tsai Ing-wen regime separatists unilaterally changing the status quo in Taiwan, China is facing the unreasonable chess pieces played by the other side and responding correctly and calmly, but instead taking the ground with its back hand, causing the opponent to suffer heavy losses.
In the past decade, from the South China Sea and the East China Sea to Hong Kong to today's Taiwan, we have resolutely and decisively counterattacked one by one and one by one to provoke and infringe on China's sovereignty and territorial integrity instigated by the United States. The settlement of the East and South China Sea, Hong Kong and Taiwan issues means that China has repeatedly faced serious provocations by the United States against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of China's eastern and southern coasts and China's territorial waters, not only has not made China chaotic, but has repeatedly become An opportunity for China. Similarly, the U.S.-Spanish turmoil in Xinjiang, in western China, has failed. China's security in the eastern coastal defense and the western border will be consolidated, which is also a double overcoming of the coastal defense and The Cypriot defense problems since the late Qing Dynasty.
China's countermeasures against Pelosi's visit to Taiwan this time once again shows the strategic determination that China has always adhered to over the past decade.
The ringer must also be tied to the bell: throw away the illusion, and first take the initiative to deal with the economic war launched by the United States against China in a reasonable, advantageous, and restrained manner
Only when China is determined to fight for the reunification of Taiwan can it use force to promote reunification and force Taiwan to come to the negotiating table. Under this determination and willpower to fight, there is naturally a tactic of blockade of Taiwan in the past few days, and this practice of locking taiwan has, on the one hand, a completely justifiable reason after the United States and Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen regime unilaterally changed the status quo in Taiwan, and on the other hand, it is also the least costly and the greatest preservation. Of course Chinese mainland there are still many tools and means in the toolbox for the reunification of Taiwan, and the lock platform in the past few days is just a small test.
The master behind the separatists of the Tsai Ing-wen regime in Taiwan is the United States, and china certainly only fights The Chiang Kai-shek ship, not the US ship, and this is the main contradiction in grasping it. From another point of view, the United States is accustomed to "using Taiwan to contain China" and is even more delusional about internationalizing or even Ukrainianizing the Taiwan issue as China's internal affair, which is part of the United States' all-round containment strategy toward China. From this point of view, the United States has become the main contradiction, and the bell must also be tied to the bell, and how to shape the strategic posture and strategic environment that makes the bell ringer have to be untied must have the strategic wisdom of the "Sun Tzu Art of War" to know oneself and know the other, to go up to the army and plot, and to yield without a fight.
The United States has done everything in its power to contain China in an all-round way, but both China and the United States, as two elephants, are now avoiding direct armed conflict, because this is a catastrophe for both sides and the world. However, the Thief's desire to comprehensively contain China has not stopped for a moment, and the United States has mobilized its various allies to block China on all sides, and has also used science and technology warfare to impose a technological blockade on China. At present, the trade war has been completely defeated, due to the high inflation of the United States, the dollar interest rate hike began after the currency was over-issued, and the current economy is more like the 2008 US financial crisis, and there is still a request for China.
But the most brazen thing for the United States is that the means taken by China are robber-style offensive demands, using Shameless and murderous means such as Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and the creation of an Asian version of NATO to ask China for a price. Just as China helped the United States through the financial crisis in 2008, the United States will never be half grateful to China for meeting its demands. On the contrary, after the US economy is helped to recover from China, it will instead tighten its grip on China. So in this regard, just like on the Taiwan issue, we have to throw away our illusions and prepare for struggle.
In the face of the current high inflation in the United States and the hike of the US dollar, China's monetary policy cannot be too conservative. In the face of the US dollar interest rate hike after several rounds of unprecedented currency over-issuance, China's strategy is on the one hand to do the opposite with the US dollar, that is, to cut interest rates, increase the money supply, in order to stimulate the economy, do not worry too much about the US dollar interest rate hike and the YUAN interest rate cut will lead to foreign capital in China will flow out to the United States, because although the US dollar raises interest rates, but in essence it is already a negative interest rate.
U.S. inflation climbed to 9.1 percent in June, a nearly 41-year high Source: The New York Times
Another strategy China has adopted is to appreciate the renminbi against the dollar, while Chinese industry associations should unite all exporters and raise the price of all exports to the United States. Otherwise, the United States will pass on and pass on high inflation to the world and China, and the world and China will be sheared by the United States in disguise, and China's monetary policy and foreign exchange policy will stabilize the dollar hegemony in disguise. Fundamentally, the hegemony of the US dollar is inseparable from the support of Asian currencies, including the renminbi, the Hong Kong dollar, the Yen, the Korean won, etc., while in the past, the hegemony of the US dollar was mainly inseparable from the support of European currencies.
Monetary easing is adopted because it is most important to stimulate the domestic economy at present, do not be too afraid of inflation, and the internal problems that may arise from interest rate cuts can be digested internally. We must not only look at the internal functions within the country, but also consider it in conjunction with the ECONOMIC WAR OF THE UNITED STATES AGAINST CHINA, both internally and externally, that is, not to cut the wool from the United States, but to hurt the United States.
As far as the appreciation of the renminbi relative to the us dollar is concerned, because China controls the global supply chain, and all exporters can unite to increase prices, the appreciation of the renminbi will not affect China's exports to the United States, but will push up inflation in the United States due to the appreciation of the renminbi and the price increase of goods exported to the United States. Precisely. It is not that the appreciation of the renminbi has pushed up inflation in the United States, but it is not that the high inflation in the United States cannot be passed on to China. When the high inflation of the United States cannot be passed on to China and passively pushed up, the internal problems of the United States are serious, it is impossible to concentrate all its efforts to comprehensively contain and deal with China, and the ferocity of the US hegemony is also forced to converge, and it is possible for the United States to implement internal policy adjustments that are beneficial to the ordinary people of the United States and constrain global transnational capital, which is conducive to the Chinese people, and to the most fundamental benefit to the American people and the people of the world.
In addition, Hong Kong is currently pegged to a single dollar, and in the future it could be considered to pegged to a basket of currencies, as Singapore has done, which is also a means of weakening the dollar's hegemony.
In the face of comprehensive containment by the United States, China is actually capable of fighting an economic war, or even a currency war, with russia having proven that it can fight a currency war with the United States. The currency means such as the renminbi interest rate cut and the appreciation of the renminbi, which are the opposite of the dollar's interest rate hike, are now the most reasonable, beneficial, and restrained way to fight against the United States, and it is time to consider assessing and adopting such "moderate" means of struggle.
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