Watch | Behind Indonesia's President's East Asia Tour: Ten Billion Dollars of Investment and Political Legacy Ambitions

The Paper's reporter Xu Zhenhua

On July 28, 2022, local time, Seoul, South Korea, South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue (right) issued a joint statement after holding a summit meeting with Indonesian President Joko Widodo (left) at the Blue House. Visual China figure

On July 28, Indonesian President Joko Widodo concluded his three-day trip to three East Asian countries with a visit to South Korea. Indonesian media stressed that Jokowi's visit to China, Japan and South Korea has brought at least $13 billion (about 87.7 billion yuan) of investment commitments and commercial orders to Indonesia.

According to Singapore's "Straits Times" reported on July 30, although Jokowi's visit to East Asia is only three days long, it has clear goals and fruitful results: on the one hand, as the rotating presidency of the Group of Twenty (G20), Indonesia should strive for the support of China, Japan and South Korea, which are also G20 members, for the G20 summit, so as to avoid the G20's goal of promoting global economic recovery from being "hijacked" by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict; On the other hand, Jokowi should show Indonesia's neutral posture in the competition of major powers, not only to ensure that Indonesia, as an ASEAN power, does not cause harm to China, but also does not snub partners such as the United States, Japan and South Korea.

The Straits Times pointed out that the outside world has exerted pressure on Indonesia, which emphasizes neutrality, to "choose sides", and Indonesia responded with a statement emphasizing trade and investment issued by Jokowi when he visited various countries.

"Jokowi's tenure has been given a lot of expectations and commitment, but he still has a lot to do at the moment." Speaking to www.thepaper.cn, Aboeprijadi Santoso, a veteran Indonesian journalist, an expert on East Timor and columnist for the Jakarta Post, said: "Jokowi is becoming more and more popular now, but this is his last term, and he definitely wants to do something to ensure that he leaves a political legacy." ”

Exploring the international stage?

"There is a perception that Jokowi is overly inclined to focus on domestic affairs, but [this visit] proves that he is exploring a new avenue and focusing on interests at the international level." Lina Alexandra, director of the Department of International Relations at the Jakarta-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told the Jakarta Post.

In the Joint Press Statement on the Meeting of the Heads of State of the People's Republic of China and the Republic of Indonesia issued on July 26, it was mentioned that the heads of state of China and Indonesia believe that China-Indonesia relations have great strategic significance and far-reaching global impact, and agreed to establish the general direction of jointly building a community of common destiny between China and Indonesia, and to build a model of mutual benefit and win-win results among developing major countries, a model of common development, and a pioneer of South-South cooperation. The statement also mentioned key words such as the responsibility of major developing countries, promoting open regionalism, strengthening multilateralism, and providing Oriental wisdom.

Many of Jokowi's political agendas bear the shadow of Indonesia's founding president, Sukarno. During Sukarno's presidency, Indonesia hosted the Bandung Conference in 1955 to promote cooperation between Asian and African countries and get rid of colonialism; In 2015, during Jokowi's first presidency, Bandung, Indonesia, held an event to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the Bandung Conference, which was attended by many leaders of developing countries. During Sukarno's reign, in 1957 a plan was proposed to move the capital to Central Kalimantan Province. During his administration, Jokowi advocated South-South cooperation to make economic development more "independent" and proposed to relocate Indonesia's political capital from Java to the geographical center of the Malay Archipelago, which is reminiscent of Sukarno-era Indonesia.

Despite this, Indonesia is still actively engaged in defense cooperation with Japan, South Korea and other countries; Indonesia has also actively participated in the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), in which Japan and South Korea participate. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on July 27 that Japan would continue to cooperate in the export of patrol boats to Indonesia, reiterating the memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the field of maritime security that the two countries have signed. In August, Japan's Self-Defense Forces will participate in the Garuda Shield multilateral joint exercise in Indonesia. This was supposed to be an annual exercise for the United States and Indonesia, but it has been greatly expanded in size and scope this year.

According to Yonhap News Agency, the heads of state of Indonesia and South Korea agreed to actively promote bilateral defense and defense industry cooperation. South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue congratulated the KF-21, a new fighter jointly developed by the two countries, on the success of the first test flight, saying that in the future, the two countries will actively promote more cooperation in the military industry based on south Korea's "excellent military technology and production capabilities.".

"Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries have a coherent attitude, and they can participate in U.S.-led economic cooperation, but they will not fully accept the framework provided by the United States, such as rejecting key demands such as 'excluding China from participating.'" Indonesia is rational and pragmatic, knowing what can and cannot be done. The development of diplomatic relations between China and Indonesia will not suffer from greater diplomatic pressure. Luo Yongkun, deputy director of the Institute of Southeast Asian and Oceania studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told the surging news.

He Jiajie, a young associate researcher in international relations and public affairs at Fudan University, told The Paper: "Indonesia understands that IPEF is strategically designed to weaken China's economic influence in the region and is a tool for the United States to contain China. Therefore, at the Launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, Indonesia's Trade Minister repeatedly stressed that IPEF should be inclusive, open to all Countries in the Indo-Pacific region, not a tool for any country, but should complement other regional frameworks, particularly the ASEAN Indo-Pacific Outlook, which is precisely inclusive and open at its core. In fact, the addition of Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia, also ensures that IPEF does not become a closed small group. ”

Domestic issues remain the focus

Behind Indonesia's high-profile diplomatic activities are its domestic pressing social problems: for example, Behind JokoWi's shuttle diplomacy between Ukraine and Russia in June as an Asian leader, the food crisis triggered by the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine in February this year, which has a particularly huge impact on the living standards and social order of people in Indonesia and other developing countries. Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine was also one of Indonesia's largest suppliers of wheat. It has been reported that the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine has even affected the production of Indomie, indonesia's national food. The price of edible oil in Indonesia has risen sharply, which has also caused protests in the country.

In 2019, after Jokowi opened his second term, he put forward policy goals such as optimizing domestic "human resources", further attracting international investment, and promoting economic system reform. In the same year, Jokowi also proposed the idea of moving the capital to deal with the overpopulation of the capital Jakarta, lack of rational planning, traffic jams, serious environmental pollution, ground subsidence and seawater backfilling.

Factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the stagnation of the global economic recovery continue to impact Indonesian society, and have also had an impact on many of the large-scale projects proposed by Jokowi during his tenure. Specifically, the relocation plan has been challenged: due to the covid-19 pandemic, the relocation bill has not been passed, and on January 18 this year, the Indonesian Parliament passed the Draft National Capital Law, which provides a budget of about US$32 billion for the relocation plan, and named the new capital in Kalimantan as Nusantara (Indonesian for "archipelago"). In March, Japan's SoftBank Group, which had proposed a $30 billion to $40 billion investment in Indonesia's new capital plan, decided not to participate in the relocation plan.

Governments and companies in China, Japan and South Korea have all expressed their willingness to help Indonesia build a new capital. Xinhua News Agency reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping said on July 26 that China is willing to actively participate in the construction of Indonesia's new capital and North Kalimantan Industrial Park, expand development financing cooperation, and cultivate new growth points in the fields of digital economy and green development.

According to the "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" reported on July 27, JokoWi, who visited Japan on the same day, said that Indonesia hopes that Japan will provide knowledge and technical support in many fields, including the new capital construction plan. According to Yonhap News Agency reported on July 28, after Jokowi visited South Korea, India and South Korea said they would cooperate on the construction project of Indonesia's new capital. However, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun also pointed out that the Japanese government seems to be less enthusiastic about helping Indonesia build a new capital, and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio did not mention the project in the media announcement.

Can the relocation plan come true?

Nusantara's capital move could begin as soon as 2024, but that is also the year when Jokowi's last term ends. At present, various issues such as the source of funds for the relocation plan, the stability of the project, and the degree of support for the political environment have aroused doubts in Indonesia and abroad.

Commenting on The Paper's analysis of the difficulties facing the relocation plan, He Jiajie said: "The first challenge is the source of funding for the $32.5 billion budget. Before the official introduction of the relocation plan, the Indonesian government promised that only 19% of the cost of the relocation would come from the government budget in 2019, but later affected by the epidemic, the international financing plan was not implemented. Therefore, this year, the Indonesian government announced on its website that 60% of the funds for the relocation of the capital will come from the government budget and 40% from the financing of the private sector. However, there is widespread concern in public that such a plan would exacerbate the government's debt burden. ”

Behind Jokowi's visit to East Asia is the intention to address the strong demand for funds, technology and experience in the relocation plan. Sandoso pointed out that Jokowi's government urgently needs more investment from abroad in the relocation plan, and Jokowi's earlier visit to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates was for the same purpose.

According to the Indonesian government's plan, the new capital must be ready by October 2024, with the establishment of mansions, government departments, and corresponding infrastructure. That year's presidential election may be held in June or July. As a result, Jokowi is still likely to preside over the unveiling of the new capital, Nusuntara, before the end of his term, although the capital function may not be fully activated until after the transition of power from the president. Sandoso said.

Luo Yongkun believes that if the infrastructure construction of the new capital Nusantara is to be in place, a relatively large amount of engineering is needed, but with the help of capital from China, Japan and South Korea, it will not be difficult to build a city before 2024. "It is not until the later stage, such as the construction of so-called 'smart cities', that it is more complicated." Luo Yongkun told The Paper, "Among The East Asian countries, South Korea has the strongest support, providing capital, talent and experience. ”

He Jiajie analyzed that in addition to the above factors, Indonesian society is also worried that the construction of large-scale infrastructure projects brought about by the relocation plan may cause corruption problems, and the locals in Kalimantan are worried that the construction of the new capital will have an impact on the local environment and the lives of indigenous people.

In any case, the Jokowi government has launched a phased implementation plan to relocate the capital, which is expected to grow from the current population of 100,000 to 700,000 by 2025, and the construction of the new capital will be completed by 2045. The relocation of the capital is also to ensure that the plan to move the capital after the expiration of the term of the Jokowi government can still be smoothly implemented. Since the Indonesian government has invested heavily in the early construction of the new capital, and the new capital has begun to take shape, subsequent governments will have to continue to promote the implementation of the relocation plan. He Jiajie concluded.

Embark on a new energy circuit?

In addition to the traditional field of infrastructure, Jokowi's cooperation plan with governments and enterprises in East Asian countries has repeatedly mentioned new areas such as energy development and technological upgrading. For example, Kishida said japan welcomes Japanese companies to start investing heavily in Indonesia in areas such as energy, the automotive industry, food safety, and the formation and development of start-ups. Jokowi stressed that Japan can provide scientific and technological support for downstream industries of resource commodities, electric vehicles and other fields.

According to a report by Yonhap News Agency on July 28, Yin Xiyue said in a meeting with Joko Wido on the 28th that Indonesia has rich nickel resources, which is also an important raw material for South Korea's high-tech industry. The two sides agreed to strengthen economic and security cooperation, including the stable supply of core mineral resources, and jointly build strategic alliances in high-tech industries such as electric vehicles and power batteries.

Xinhua News Agency reported that Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pointed out at a meeting with Jokowi on July 26 that China is willing to give full play to the complementary advantages of resources and industries with Indonesia, promote the construction of the Yawan high-speed railway and manufacturing cooperation, deepen cooperation in key areas such as trade and investment, energy mining, agriculture, and strengthen local currency exchange cooperation.

"Indonesia wants to win investment from East Asian countries in its hydropower projects, green industrial parks, and new energy vehicle industries, attract East Asian companies to participate in digital infrastructure construction, and share experience in smart city and digital government construction with the Indonesian government." He Jiajie said.

In recent years, Indonesia has made frequent moves in the field of resource development. Indonesia is a natural resource endowment, especially rare metals such as nickel. Last year, Jokowi said Indonesia plans to ban the export of all raw material goods to attract investment in resource commodity processing and create jobs. Indonesia has long banned the export of unprocessed ores such as nickel, tin and copper to encourage downstream industries, including the production of electric vehicle batteries.

Jokowi and his cronies, Co-ordinating Minister for Oceans and Investments, Luhut, have also recently approached Musk, the ceo of electric car giant Tesla, to open a factory in Indonesia. For Tesla, Indonesia is a country with a large number of important raw materials for batteries - nickel, and its resource significance is self-evident.

According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Luhut participated in a business forum held in Tokyo, Japan, on the eve of Jokowi's visit to Japan. Speaking at the forum, Luhut said: "Indonesia has changed into a more effective and transparent country. In his speech, Luhut explained that Indonesia is transitioning from exporting raw material goods to value-added industries such as electric vehicles and batteries.

Luhut said eastern Indonesia is pushing for large-scale construction of industrial parks and electric vehicle battery production projects. He also stressed that the details of Tesla's investment in Indonesia are "being finalized."

Luo Yongkun pointed out that as early as the former President Susilo Rosador's administration, that is, around 2011, Indonesia began to transform its resource policy, began to restrict the export of domestic resources and raw materials, emphasizing that cooperation between foreign enterprises and Indonesia must be carried out in the form of opening downstream industries in Indonesia. "This policy tendency has been going on for 10 years, and it will only get stronger in the future." On the one hand, such policy directions will not change; On the other hand, this has become the norm for cooperation between foreign investment and Indonesia. Luo Yongkun told the surging news. He pointed out that Indonesia should build itself into a global industrial chain center, especially a production center for electric vehicles.

During Jokowi's administration, he attracted investment in many fields such as the construction of a new capital, the transformation of resource industries, and military-industrial cooperation, and to a certain extent fulfilled his campaign promises. But in the political arena, Jokowi, who is close to leaving office, seems to be stagnant. Sandoso summed up the surging news: "Jokowi wants to leave his legacy, but Indonesia's problems remain. The need for more than 20 percent of congressional seat endorsements for presidential candidates meant that several major political parties would dominate power, and many human rights issues promised to be addressed remained unaddressed, including the massacres between 1965 and 1966. Nowadays, there are more and more protests among Indonesians... This all runs counter to Jokowi's campaign promises, which are the legacy of More than three decades in power in Suharto. ”

Responsible editor: Hu Zhenqing Photo editor: Zhang Tongze

Proofreader: Yan Zhang