South Korea has seen negative population growth for the first time in more than 70 years.
According to Yonhap News Agency, data from the Korea Statistics Agency shows that as of November 1, 2021, the total population of South Korea (including foreigners living in South Korea) was 51.738 million, a decrease of 91,000 from the previous year, or a decrease of 0.2%. This is the first negative population growth in South Korea since the statistics began in 1949.
South Korea is not the only country experiencing negative population growth. Countries such as Japan, Sweden, Denmark and Germany face a similar situation. The World Population Prospects 2022, a report released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, shows that more countries will face a downward demographic trend in the future.
The low birth rate is the main cause
South Korea's KBS TV reported that South Korea's population growth rate peaked at 3% in 1960, and then continued to decline, falling below 1% since 1995, and for the first time in 2021, there was negative growth, that is, a growth rate of negative 0.2%, which is the first time that the total population of foreigners included in South Korea has experienced negative growth.
"Negative population growth means a decline in the total population." Li Tianguo, an associate researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Beijing News that the total population of foreigners living in South Korea was expected to decline until 2028, but due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, the number of foreigners living in South Korea has declined, resulting in this process coming early.
The main reason for the negative population growth in South Korea is the country's low birth rate.
"The main reason is the low birth rate of babies, which has led to negative population growth, because although the average life expectancy in South Korea is constantly increasing, the birth rate is too low, resulting in a decline in the total population." Li Tianguo said.
The Yonhap news agency report presents a similar view. Yonhap News Agency, citing South Korea's Population Data for May 2022, said that the number of babies born in South Korea in May this year fell to an all-time low due to a long-term low birth rate.
The data shows that a total of 20,007 babies were born in May 2022, down 8.8 percent from the previous year, the lowest rate of babies born in May for the first time since the Statistics Agency began the statistics in 1981.
At the same time, rapid aging and the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed South Korea's death toll to record highs. Also in May 2022, the death toll in South Korea reached 28,859, up 12.8 percent from a year ago, the highest number of deaths in May for the first time since the Korea Statistics Agency began the statistics in 1983.
Based on South Korea's continued severe demographic situation, Yonhap News Agency pointed out that the total population of South Korea is decreasing because the number of births is lower than the number of deaths.
It is worth noting that South Korea's first negative population growth in 2022 is different from the natural population decline that will occur in 2021. Last year, South Korea saw its first natural decline in its total population, which included foreigners.
According to Xinhua News Agency, preliminary data released by the Korea Statistics Agency on February 24, 2021 showed that the population of South Korea will naturally decrease by about 33,000 people in 2020, which is the first time since relevant statistics that South Korea's birth population in one year is less than the number of deaths. According to the Korea Statistics Agency, south Korea's birth population in 2020 decreased by about 10% from the previous year to 272,400, the lowest value since the relevant statistics began in 1970, while the number of deaths in the same year increased by 3.4% from the previous year to 305,100, the highest value since 1970.
South Korea saw its first population decline in 2020 because the number of births was lower than the number of deaths, known as the "population death-cross" (excluding foreigners in South Korea).
South Koreans postpone or abandon marriage and have children
South Korea's negative population growth is reflected not only in the persistently depressed birth rate, but also in the declining fertility rate (abbreviation for total fertility rate).
According to the United Nations definition, the total fertility rate refers to the average number of children born to each woman of childbearing age, and the total fertility rate of 2.1 is the basic condition for maintaining intergenerational turnover and population stability.
In the 1950s and 1960s, South Korea's combined fertility rate exceeded 6. Since then, South Korea's fertility rate has plummeted almost straight, falling below 2.1 in the early 1980s. Total fertility fell to 0.84 in 2020 and hit a record low of 0.81 again in 2021, which the Korea Statistics Agency said marked the country's four consecutive years of total fertility below 1. Of the more than 180 countries counted by the World Bank, South Korea has the lowest fertility rate.
The main reason for the continuous decline in South Korea's fertility rate is that many young people postpone or give up marriage and children, which can be seen from the latest data in South Korea.
According to the latest data from the Korea Statistics Agency in 2022, the number of single-person households in South Korea has grown rapidly, reaching 7.17 million last year, an increase of 7.9% over the previous year, accounting for 33.4% of the total number of households, exceeding one-third for the first time. The number of two-person households accounted for 28.3%, an increase of 3.6% over the previous year. The combined number of single and two-person households accounted for 61.7%.
The main reason why many young people postpone or give up marriage and have children is that the concept of marriage and childbearing has changed.
Dong Xiangrong, a researcher at the Academy of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, once told the Beijing News that after the end of the war in the 1950s, South Korea ushered in a "baby boom", and it was very common for a South Korean woman to have five or six children during that period. However, with the development of economy and society, the improvement of women's education level and participation rate in social and economic activities, the awakening of feminist awareness, the increase in willingness and means to control births, and the expansion of social welfare, the decline in the birth rate is also very normal. This is similar in developed Western countries.
On July 2, 2021, local time, Seoul, South Korea, aerial photography of the northeast area of Seoul apartment residential area. Figure/IC photo
High housing prices are another reason why young couples who want children are prohibitive. The BBC reported that because people want to have a house of their own before they have children. But as housing prices are getting higher, it has become an unattainable dream for many.
In addition, South Korea's economic slowdown has caused difficulties in finding jobs, gender inequality has led to difficulties in women's employment, and high childbearing expectations of young couples have also made South Korea's fertility rate even more depressed.
Labor problems stand out
The biggest problem with negative population growth is the severe shortage of labor and the aging of society.
The number of births in South Korea continues to decline due to the continued downturn in the birth rate and fertility rate. According to Xinhua News Agency, the reduction in the number of newborns will trigger a sharp decline in the working-age population. According to the data, the working-age population of South Korea in 2020, that is, the number of people aged 15 to 64, was 37.4 million, accounting for 72.1% of the total population; This population is expected to decrease by an average of 360,000 per year in the 2020s and 530,000 per year by the 1930s; According to this trend, by 2070, the working-age population may be reduced to 17.37 million, accounting for only 46.1% of the total population that year.
In stark contrast, South Korea's aging population is growing. According to the Korea Statistics Agency, the number of elderly people over the age of 65 in South Korea increased by 5.1% last year compared with 2020, accounting for 16.8% of the total population, compared with 13.3% in 2016. According to the relevant United Nations standards, more than 14% of the population over the age of 65 enters the aging society, and more than 20% is in the ultra-aging society. South Korea's JoongAng Daily said that South Korea may enter a super-aging society within 4 years.
As the proportion of the labor force declines and the proportion of the elderly population rises in South Korea, negative population growth will not only impact South Korea's long-term economic development, but also lead to an increase in the dependency ratio.
"Labor is a necessary factor of production for economic growth. The decline in the labor force population will affect long-term economic growth, but also affect the spending power of society as a whole. Li Tianguo said, "Negative population growth not only means that the labor force population declines, but also means that the dependency ratio will rise, and the government's financial burden will increase." ”
In order to alleviate the problems caused by the decline in the working population, South Korea has taken a variety of measures. Among the many measures, the South Korean government has focused on encouraging people to marry and have children.
Previously, South Korea set up a low-fertility and aging society committee directly under the president, issued the "Low-fertility And Aging Social Policy Roadmap" and many other policies to encourage marriage and childbearing, giving priority to newlyweds to provide public policy housing and providing them with low-interest housing loans. Various subsidies are provided for newborns, basically waiving the medical expenses of children under 1 year old, providing paid leave for parents raising children, and also introducing up to 2 years of childcare leave, and providing financial subsidies for single-parent families.
However, the Guardian pointed out that some critics say that the measures taken by the South Korean government cannot effectively and fundamentally solve the problem, because the main problem facing many young people in South Korea at present is the excessive burden of spending on higher education and housing, and if these burdens cannot be alleviated, it is difficult to really encourage Koreans to marry and have children. Ms Kim of South Korea also said in an interview with the BBC that the government's stimulus measures were not enough. Raising children, she said, was too expensive and that the little money the government gave wouldn't solve the problem.
Preparations should be made early for "negative population growth"
South Korea is not the only case of negative population growth, facing the same problem is Japan, Sweden, Denmark, Germany and other countries, the fertility rates of these countries have dropped below 2.1, for example, the latest World Bank statistics show that Japan, Sweden, Denmark fertility rates are 1.3, 1.7 and 1.7 respectively.
On September 20, 2021, local time, in Tokyo, Japan, the elderly walked on the street on Respect for the Elderly Day. Figure/IC photo
Li Tianguo said that many developed countries and emerging economies around the world have experienced negative population growth, which is an objective phenomenon that occurs with the improvement of economic development level and medical level: "On the one hand, the medical level has increased rapidly, and the average life expectancy of many countries is constantly extending, on the other hand, the birth rate has not increased, but has declined." ”
Many Western countries, especially the Nordic countries, that have experienced negative population growth, actively encourage people to have children and give various subsidies and incentives.
For example, the BBC said that the Swedish government not only allowed mothers to take maternity leave, but also legislated that fathers could also take maternity leave. Bonuses can also be received if both parents complete their maternity leave (480 days in total, 240 days for each parent). In Germany, children receive government subsidies from birth to the age of 18. From January 2020, the German government stipulates that the first two children can receive a monthly subsidy of 204 euros (about 1600 yuan). The Danish government stipulates that a child can receive financial subsidies from the birth of a child until the age of 18, and the specific amount of subsidy varies according to the age of the child, the smaller the child, the higher the number, and is paid quarterly.
However, these measures currently being taken are not sufficient. The results of the UN report show that more countries will face population decline in the coming years.
According to the World Population Prospects 2022, a report released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the average fertility rate of the world's population has plummeted from 5 to 2.3 since 1950 and is expected to fall further to 2.1, which maintains population stability by 2050. Also by 2050, the population of 61 countries is expected to decline by at least 1%. Europe is expected to see the biggest decline, with countries such as Italy and Spain already experiencing the hollowing out of villages and even towns.
The Arab News Network report warns that such a large population decline will have an impact on the economy and society of the host country, and many countries must begin to prepare more for the decline.
The Arab News Network reported that after the population decline, labor shortages have been reduced, farms, factories and workshops across Europe have become less efficient, and the problem has become more common and serious, and developed Asian economies such as Japan and South Korea, which are facing population decline, will also be deeply involved. The window for action by multinationals facing the potential for population decline is small and may be closing rapidly, necessitating practical policies to prepare for the impending "troubles".
Beijing News reporter Zhu Yuehong
Edited by Liu Xixian Proofreader Wu Xingfa