Four Japanese politicians followed the trend and visited Taiwan, and were criticized for "just brushing up on the sense of existence"

Source: Global Times

Following Washington, Japan also began to play the "Taiwan card." A delegation of the "Council of Parliamentarians Thinking about Japan's Security And Security," co-chaired by two former Japanese defense ministers, Shigeru Ishiba and Yasuichi Hamada, arrived at Taipei's Matsuyama Airport on 27 July and began a four-day visit to Taiwan. In connection with the 2022 "Defense White Paper" released by the Japanese Ministry of Defense a few days ago, the number of pages involving the Issue of the Taiwan Strait is twice as large as last year, and some media believe that "Sino-Japanese relations are afraid of falling into an ice age." However, some Japanese political analysts believe that Shigeru Ishiba, who has repeatedly unsuccessfully competed for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, does not have the ability to influence Japan's Taiwan Strait policy, and he only uses this visit to increase media exposure and brush up on his sense of existence. At the same time, the assessment of the risk of US House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan continues. At the Foreign Ministry's regular press conference on the 27th, spokesman Zhao Lijian once again expressed his solemn and just position of resolutely opposing Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, and warned: "If the US side insists on going its own way and challenges China's bottom line, it will be resolutely countered, and all the consequences caused by it will be completely borne by the US side." ”

7 people become 4 people

Shigeru Ishiba said in an interview with the media at Matsuyama Airport on the 27th that there should have been 7 Japanese parliamentarians visiting Taiwan, but only 4 came this time, because former Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Former Hara, former Deputy Defense Minister Shu Watanabe, and former Prime Minister Assistant Officer Kitami Keirō gave up participating on the grounds that they were "affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic". Nevertheless, led by two former defense ministers, the rank of the delegation that has visited Taiwan in recent years has been very high. The delegation included three members of the House of Representatives from the Liberal Democratic Party: Shigeru Ishiba, Yasuichi Hamada and Akihisa Nagashima, as well as a senator from the Japan Restoration Association, Kiyuki Shimizu.

Maehara Seiji posted on Twitter on the afternoon of the 27th that he had planned to visit Taiwan with a "super-party parliamentarian group" from the same day, but due to the "summer cold symptoms", although the nucleic acid test results were temporarily negative, he finally decided to give up.

The number of members of the delegation was suddenly reduced by 3, which inevitably aroused speculation from the outside world. However, Japan's new crown pneumonia epidemic has indeed reached a peak, and on the 27th, the number of new confirmed cases in Japan reached 209,000, once again breaking the record since the outbreak of the epidemic. Taro Kono, a member of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and former defense minister, attended the "Ketagalan Forum" held in Taipei city online on the 26th. According to himself, he had planned to attend the forum in person in Taiwan, but cancelled his visit because he was confirmed to be infected with the new crown virus on the 12th of this month.

Shigeru Ishiba said at Taipei Airport that the trip did not exchange views with the Kishida government in advance, but that permission had been obtained for the trip, and that the purpose of the trip was to extensively discuss the so-called "regional security situation" with Taiwan. A day earlier, Shigeru Ishiba said on social media that some people advocated "Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow", "but the situation in Taiwan is more complicated". He said that he had visited Taiwan alone 15 years ago to observe the "Han Kuang exercise" and take a ride on the Taiwan Navy's "Lafayette" ship, but the situation now is completely different from that year, and he believes that if he does not visit Taiwan once, he "will not be able to talk about Japan's future security policy."

According to Taiwan's Lianhe Pao[ [Lianhe Pao] [ During their four days in Taiwan , the delegation will meet with Tsai Ing-wen , Lai Ching-te , deputy leader of the Taiwan region ; Wu Zhaojiao , responsible person for Taiwan's foreign affairs ; and Su Jiaquan , president of the "Association for Relations between Taiwan and Japan," and will also pay tribute to Lee Teng-hui.

Disappointing right-wing print presence

Taiwan's "Ministry of Foreign Affairs" issued a press release to welcome it. But netizens on the island sneered, "I am not in office, I have no real power, I am useless", "Former defense minister, why don't you dare to come now?" "Now when foreign parliamentarians come to Taiwan, they all kneel as if they were fathers," "Taiwan looks like a Japanese colony," "Can we return the Diaoyu Islands?" ”

Founded in 2019, the Meeting of Parliamentarians Considering Japan's Security regularly invites more than 20 cross-party members of the Diet and government officials to hold seminars to discuss Japanese security issues.

Shigeru Ishiba, a senior member of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and known as the "new national defense clan" in Japanese politics, first entered the then Koizumi Cabinet in 2002 as the head of the Defense Agency and became one of the important cabinet members. After that, he served as Minister of Defense in the Fukuda Cabinet. He repeatedly competed with Taro Aso and Shinzo Abe for the position of president of the Liberal Democratic Party, but failed.

In November 2019, Shigeru Ishiba said in an interview with the media on the issue of "amending the Constitution" that the provisions of Article 9, Paragraph 2 of the Constitution on "not maintaining combat effectiveness" should be deleted and clearly stipulated that "the army should be maintained". In 2020, Shigeru Ishiba's influence in the LDP was declining due to his defeat to Yoshihide Suga in the LDP's presidential election.

According to Taiwan's "Central News Agency," another head of the group, Yasuichi Hamada, is also a heavyweight member of the Liberal Democratic Party and comes from a political family; his father, Koichi Hamada, once vigorously opposed former Japanese Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka to "sever diplomatic relations" with Taiwan.

Japan's speculative game between China and the United States

In May this year, five LDP deputies also visited Taiwan and, in addition to holding talks with Tsai Ing-wen and others, also visited Lee Teng-hui's grave. Taiwan's "Central News Agency" quoted an unnamed scholar on the island as saying on the 27th that the death of former Japanese Prime Minister Abe has aroused concern in Taiwan and Japan: The "most pro-Taiwan pillar" in Japan's political arena is gone, and the pace of Japan's pro-Taiwan support may slow down, and the visit of the members of the cross-party "Meeting of Parliamentarians on Japan's Security and Security" is undoubtedly an important message released to Taiwan, that is, "concern for the security of the Taiwan Strait has long been the consensus of the Liberal Democratic Party without factions, and it is also the cross-party consensus of Japanese political circles."

Lu Hao, deputy director of the Comprehensive Strategy Office of the Japan Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times reporter on the 27th that since last year, Japan has shown a trend of more actively developing substantive relations with Taiwan. Although it still adheres to the "one-China principle" in diplomatic rhetoric, Japan has already used various unofficial channels, such as the two "2+2 political parties" activities between Japan and Taiwan last year, which have had a very bad impact. In addition, the linkage between the United States and Japan in Taiwan affairs has also been markedly strengthened.

Lu Hao analyzed that Japan has always tried to take the Taiwan issue as a "strategic grasp" and tried to balance China. But on the other hand, the geopolitical, economic and culturally inseparable relationship between China and Japan cannot be solved by the so-called "decoupling theory". Therefore, Japan's strategy of "seeking to maximize its own interests" in the Sino-US game has a strong realism and utilitarianism, and even some speculative thinking. He told the Global Times that Japan will continue to adjust its diplomatic strategy as the situation changes.

Recently, there are many US and Western politicians who have played the "Taiwan card" to rub the heat. At the "Ketagalan Forum" held in Taipei on the 26th, participants included 3 US congressmen, former US Defense Secretary Mattis and former Homeland Security Secretary Napolitano, two former Australian defense ministers and two former Japanese defense ministers.

Taiwan's price will be "far more than profitable"

According to CNN reported on the 27th, the White House said on the 26th that because Pelosi is the second heir to the US president, the US government pays special attention to the safety of her trip when she visits overseas. CNN also said that privately, Biden administration officials have been trying to clarify the "potential risks" of the trip during their meetings with Pelosi and her team.

Hsu Shu-bo, chairman of the All-Taiwan Chamber of Commerce, said in an interview with the Hong Kong China Commentary Agency on the 27th that Taiwan should think about what help Pelossi will be to Taiwan if she visits Taiwan. Will it cause any harm? He believes that in cross-strait affairs, "a little less stimulation will increase safety." Taiwan's Zhongshi News Network commented on the same day that in Clinton's eyes, Lee Teng-hui is a "troublemaker." In Bush Jr.'s eyes, Chen Shui-bian is a "troublemaker." In Biden's eyes, "I'm afraid this hat will still be given to Tsai Ing-wen." Whether or not Pelosi visits Taiwan this time, the Tsai administration will probably become the biggest loser.

Zhao Chunshan, an honorary professor at the Institute of Chinese mainland studies at Tamkang University, said in an article published at the Yahoo Forum in Taiwan on the 27th that after the news of Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan came out, the outside world focused on the timing and motivation of her visit, the possible reaction of the mainland and the impact on the relations between the mainland, Taiwan and the United States. But no one was sure if Pelosi would make the trip, and the whole thing looked like a Rashomon. Zhao Chunshan said that whether Or not Pelosi visits Taiwan, "Taiwan is in a passive position" because the DPP government does not have the ability to manage the crisis. Once Pelosi visits Taiwan, the DPP may launch a "great internal propaganda" to win some votes for the local elections at the end of the year, "but the price taiwan pays in cross-strait relations will definitely exceed the benefits gained in Taiwan-US relations."

An anonymous expert on the Taiwan Strait in Beijing told the Global Times that the biggest harm caused by the VISIT OF US and Japanese lawmakers to Taiwan and the formation of a linkage is that it has rendered the Taiwan Strait crisis. Coupled with Tsai Ing-wen's agitation for the expansion of armaments, the whole misled the mood of Taiwanese society. And even the people on the island who want Taiwan to expand the so-called "international space" will not agree with the war script set for them by the United States and Japan. He said: US and Japanese politicians have profited from this by escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and they are also seeking their own selfish interests, not Taiwan's real future.