Tehran's "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" | Turkey turn Putin into a pawn in the game with the United States and the West?

The Paper's special contributor Li Yunpeng

【Editor's Note】

U.S. President Joe Biden left the Middle East on the front foot, and Russian President Vladimir Putin began his trip to the Middle East on July 19, meeting with Iranian and Turkish leaders in the Iranian capital Tehran. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is raging, and the game of the US-Russian president's trip to the Middle East is self-evident, and what can Iran, as an old rival of the United States for many years, and Turkey, a NATO member, get in this trilateral meeting? How will the geopolitical situation outside the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield change? The "Diplomacy Scholar" column has launched a series of articles on "Tehran's 'Romance of the Three Kingdoms'" to try to answer these questions.

On July 19, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who visited the Iranian capital Tehran for the Tripartite Talks on the Astana Process, held bilateral talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was also visiting. This visit to Iran is Putin's second foreign visit after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and his meeting with NATO president Turkish President Erdogan is particularly noteworthy.

Erdogan's meeting with Putin was the first meeting between the two since their September 2021 talks in Sochi, which lasted about an hour and focused on Syria and the Black Sea Food Corridor. Although the Western media are not optimistic about the Turkish-Russian summit, judging from the results, the results of this talk are pragmatic and effective. On July 22, a quadripartite of Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations signed an agreement in Istanbul for the export of Ukrainian grain, which UN Secretary-General António Guterres regarded as a "beacon of hope." According to the agreement, Ukraine's backlog of nearly 20 million tons of grain will be expected to be exported, the global food crisis will be alleviated to a certain extent, Putin specially sent Defense Minister Shoigu to Istanbul to sign the agreement, and expressed his gratitude to the media for Turkey's active mediation.

It is also worth mentioning a small episode before the Turkish-Russian summit. According to a number of foreign media reports, Erdogan intended to make Putin wait for nearly a minute before the talks, the purpose of which was to "retaliate" against Putin for letting Erdogan wait two more minutes before the talks two years ago. Erdogan's move, which is not in line with the common sense of diplomacy, has released a very subtle signal, Erdogan's move is not so much a "revenge" against Putin as it is to show the United States and Western countries, the fundamental purpose of which is to force Western countries to pay close attention to fulfilling their important commitments and concessions to Turkey at the NATO Madrid summit, and at the same time to enable Turkey and Russia to maintain a certain distance, and this seemingly close or far distance between Turkey and Russia will obviously maximize Turkey's interests. Putin has also invisibly become a key chess piece in the strategic game between Erdogan and the United States and the West.

Turkey's earnings

Recently, Turkey has actively wandered between the United States and the West and Russia, is unprecedentedly active in the international arena, and its strategic position has been further highlighted, and the strength, methods and timing of cooperation and game between all parties in the conflict between Turkey and Russia and Ukraine have been just right, and it has become the biggest beneficiary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Less than a month ago, at the NATO summit held on June 29-30, Erdogan finally verbally agreed to the accession of the Nordic countries Sweden and Finland to NATO, and took intimate photos with many leaders of the United States and Western countries, and the reporter of Turkey's semi-official news agency Ahaber even captured a very representative video - on the sidelines of the talks, Erdogan and US President Biden talked cordially, during which British Prime Minister Johnson also joined the conversation and said to Erdogan in Turkish, "You have done a great job". At the NATO summit, Turkey presented a posture of a Western ally, which is very different from the Tehran talks.

At the end of May, just as U.S. Secretary of State Blinken saw Sweden and Finland's imminent nato membership as a "major geostrategic victory" for Russia, Turkey suddenly stepped in the middle of the road, saying it would not agree to Sweden and Finland joining NATO, on the grounds that the two countries supported the Kurdish forces that Turkey regarded as a terrorist organization. In fact, Turkey seems to be expressing its opposition to Sweden and Finland, but it is actually taking the opportunity to appeal to the Interests of the United States.

At the end of May, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavushoglu and Blinken held a low-key meeting in New York, according to the US side, Turkey put forward a series of demands such as the United States to resume the supply of F-35 fighters to Turkey, upgrade F-16 fighters, lift sanctions on Turkey's "People's Bank", and extradite Gulen. Erdogan even directly called out to Biden that "it is time for the United States to reconsider its relationship with Turkey."

On the one hand, the United States urgently needs Turkey to make concessions on the issue of the two Nordic countries joining NATO for its global strategic considerations, on the other hand, some members of the US House of Representatives hold a tough position on the Erdogan government, which makes the Biden administration embarrassed.

According to reports, at the NATO summit, Biden verbally agreed to Turkey's key interests such as upgrading F-16 fighter jets and lifting sanctions on Turkey's "People's Bank". In fact, Turkey's similar interest claims have been clearly put forward since the Trump era, and although Erdogan has a good personal relationship with Trump, the United States has clearly rejected Turkey's relevant demands. Since the Biden administration came to power, it has been snubbing Turkey and even criticizing Erdogan many times, and Erdogan has commented that "the beginning of the (dealings with) Biden administration is the worst with the PREVIOUS US administrations." The atmosphere of the G20 summit in Rome, which the two pushed back and forth, was clearly not harmonious. This time, the Biden administration was able to make important concessions to Turkey, which is very rare in the history of US-Turkey relations.

At a time when the game between the United States and the West and Russia has not had time to take care of the Middle East after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Turkey suddenly launched a large-scale military operation code-named "Locked Claw" in Syria and northern Iraq on April 18, 2022, and struck at the Kurdish armed forces, an important strategic grip of the United States in Syria and Iraq. Turkish Defense Minister Akar said that as of July 10, Turkey's military operation had achieved a lot of results, eliminating nearly 2,000 Kurdish militants, most of them Iraqi Kurdish militants. The Turkish army has uprooted a large number of militant strongholds in northern Syria, especially in Iraq.

Although Turkey has launched similar cross-border military operations against the Kurds on many occasions, this "locked claw" military operation is obviously the most fruitful, especially the Turkish army has penetrated deep into the Iraqi reservoir area. In the previous military operations, under the pressure and constraints of the United States, Turkey has always been unable to drive straight in and do a big job. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Erdogan took advantage of the weakness and lack of time between the United States and Russia to take care of the Middle East, and decisively sent troops to Iraq and Syria to fight against the Kurdish armed forces, which not only alleviated the "heart disease" of national security to a certain extent, but also an important geostrategic victory for Turkey in recent years.

In addition to its practical interests, Turkey has also gained international prestige and further enhanced its international status. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Turkey did not rush to take sides but adopted a positive and neutral position, and promoted the Peace Talks between Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Istanbul. With the conclusion of the Ukrainian grain export agreement, Turkey traveled between all parties, actively threaded the needle, and successfully set up the action coordination center in Istanbul. It can be expected that Turkey will play a key role in the political process that may arise in the future Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

The conclusion of the Ukrainian grain export agreement will solve the urgent need for food imports from many countries in Africa and the Middle East. In recent years, Turkey attaches great importance to diplomacy in Africa, the number of embassies and consulates in Africa is increasing day by day, Erdogan often says that "Turkey is a good friend of the African people, is a defender of African interests", Erdogan this time to solve the global food crisis, invisibly enhance Turkey's prestige in African countries, help turkey's soft power to enhance, but also help Erdogan's future further layout in Africa and the Middle East.

Turkey's unique advantages

The deep-seated reasons behind Turkey's ability to move between the United States, the West and Russia, betting on both sides, are worth paying attention to.

First of all, Turkey is located at a geostrategic point at the junction of Eurasia, guarding the throat of the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, and is called a geostrategic pivot country of Eurasia by Brzezinski. This aspect determines the particularity and complexity of Turkey's relations with world powers, although the United States is dissatisfied with Turkey's closeness to Russia, it will not easily tear its face with Turkey, even if the relationship between Turkey and the United States falls into a freezing point, there is always room for turning, and NATO still has a large number of bases and personnel deployed in key areas of Turkey. On the other hand, Turkey's geopolitical conditions determine that Turkey seems to be more or less able to see Turkey on hot issues in a wide range of geopolitical dimensions such as the Middle East, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, Southeast Europe, North Africa, and Central Asia.

It is particularly worth mentioning Turkey's control over the Black Sea Strait, which is the lifeblood of the Black Sea, and the game around the Black Sea Strait between the parties has not stopped for a moment since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which invisibly increases Turkey's bargaining costs with all parties in the game.

In addition, Turkey's diverse cultural identity attributes are another important advantage. Turkey is a typical secular Muslim country, an important member of NATO, an important member of the Organization of Turkic States, a dialogue country of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and has long sought to join the European Union. For a long time, Turkey has appeared more as an ally of the United States in the Middle East in international affairs, but in recent years, Turkey's domestic neo-Ottomanism and political Islam have risen, Turkey intends to further strengthen its non-Western identity attributes, coupled with turkey's relations with the United States and the West in recent years, Turkey has been in a state of discord, so in this Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Turkey did not blindly follow the United States and the West but actively neutralized to fight for its own greatest interests.

It can be expected that with the deepening of the century-old changes, the control of the United States over Turkey will be further weakened, and Turkey will emphasize its non-Western characteristics more in future international affairs, but Turkey will not easily give up the special relationship with the United States and the West for a long time.

Turkey's dream of great power

It should not be ignored that Turkey also has its own century-old "Turkish Dream" and is further stimulated by the superposition of chaos in the Middle East and the century-old changes in the world. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has given Turkey a rare strategic opportunity and a broad stage.

At the beginning of the 21st century, Turkey's ruling AKP put forward a series of national development goals. In 2023, Turkey is about to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, Erdogan designed the magnificent "Centenary Vision 2023 (2023 Vizyonu)" for Turkey in 2011, which is a grand blueprint that includes economic, political, social, military, diplomatic, educational, medical and other reform goals, mainly including tripling Turkey's per capita income by 2023 compared with 2011, and initially realizing an independent and modern defense industrial system. To build Turkey into a logistics and manufacturing hub connecting the three continents of Europe, Asia and Africa.

Further, Erdogan's government has proposed a more long-term "2053 Plan" and "2071 Outlook". The "2053 Plan" mainly refers to the 600th anniversary of the Turkish occupation of the city of Istanbul in 2053 to make Turkey a "global power" and establish a "new world order", while the "2071 Outlook" mainly refers to Turkey's 1071 "Ottoman level" in 2071, the 1000th anniversary of the victory of the Ottomans in the decisive battle of the Byzantine Empire, the Battle of Manzikt. To quote former Turkish Prime Minister Davutoglu, "By 2023 you will see the rise of the state, and by 2071 you will be living as a global power as a valued citizen." ”

If the "Vision 2023" is regarded as Turkey's detailed development plan for its own economy, industry, science and technology, then the "2053 Plan" and "2071 Outlook" are more general, which more reflect the "imperial feelings" and "great power dreams" of the AKP based on the new Ottomanism, and even the planning of the future international system.

It is very intriguing that whether it is the Istanbul talks between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers in March, or the quadripartite talks between Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations, Turkey has chosen the address of the old Ottoman Empire's royal palace Dolmabahce Palace, a magnificent and luxurious building that stretches for more than 600 meters on the side of the Bosphorus Strait, looking down on the Black Sea like a lion, and Turkey's decision to set the talks here obviously has a certain symbolic significance. Equally eye-catching was a detail in the two talks, namely that the backdrop of the talks was a huge mural depicting the grandeur of the Straits of Istanbul during the Ottoman Empire. Perhaps, in Erdogan's subconscious, he did not forget that the Black Sea was once the inland sea of the Ottoman Empire for nearly a hundred years in history, which invisibly gave Turkey a "sacred sense of mission" in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Responsible editor: Zhu Zhengyong Photo editor: Jin Jie