A pork seller had to learn "Internet thinking", and as a result, his pigs starved to death.
01
Pigs eat pigs, and pigs are hungry and crazy
This year the pigs also had a miserable life.
Previously, pigs were only known to eat feed and bran with various wild boiled plants.
Now it is found that pigs can also eat pigs.
Why do pigs eat the same kind? Feed the pig farmers hungry.
Recently, there is news that some farms have caused the pigs raised to starve for a long time because of feed supply, and finally led to starvation, and even pigs eat pigs.
According to the Financial Associated Press, in the past month, Guangxi Nanning, Sichuan Jiangyou, Jiangxi Ganzhou, Hunan Xiangtan and other places zhengbang science and technology generation households have a "broken material" problem.
Zhengbang Technology, a large A-share pig farmer, was exposed to "unable to afford" pig feed, and farmers also faced multiple problems such as difficulty in settling payments and returning deposits.
On July 3, Douyin user "Tears in the Snow" released a video saying that eight days after the break, the pigs raised by Zhengbang Technology on behalf of households appeared to eat pigs in the case of extreme hunger.
Subsequently, the video of the pig eating the pig was all deleted, and "Tears in the Snow" explained that the local government was negotiating with Zhengbang to help solve the problem, so the video was deleted first.
On July 8, "Tears in the Snow" once again released a video of pigs eating pigs.
I didn't expect that in the 21st century, I would actually see the news of pigs eating pigs; I didn't expect that there would really be farmers who would starve to death and not feed the pigs pig feed.
These starving pigs, eating pigs of their own kind, are all "pigs" of Zhengbang Technology.
"Zhengbang always cuts off materials, and it has become normal to cut off for two or three days for a few days."
"Pigs who can't get feed will get sick and starve to death, and I will never pay for feed.
Zhengbang Technology itself pig breeding enterprises, his breeding model has self-raising and substitute breeding.
Substitute breeding is to find farmers to raise piglets in Zhengbang, Zhengbang provides feed and piglets, while farmers are responsible for providing space and feeding, and provide Pigs to Zhengbang on schedule.
According to the contract, farmers will pay a deposit to Zhengbang, and each pig raised can get 1.5 yuan per day.
Zhengbang has some problems with funds, so it suspends the provision of feed to farmers, and the farmers themselves know that Zhengbang can't come up with money, preferring to wait for the pigs to be hungry and eat pigs rather than buy feed on their behalf.
Then some people asked, why don't farmers sell their pigs, or pay some of their own money first? It's better than a pig starving to death.
Pig enterprise funds are not in place, farmers advance money to raise pigs is not unheard of, Shanxi Luliang a substitute farmer once helped Zhengbang to advance funds, the result of pork out of the barn after Zhengbang directly pulled away, on behalf of the remuneration, advance funds but did not give a point, there is no statement.
As for the farmers selling the pigs privately, it is even more impossible, the company does not give the settlement, the withholding fee, is a financial problem, and did not say no, at most a civil dispute. However, the illegal sale of farmers is illegally usurped the property of others, which is a criminal case, and it is the farmers who ultimately suffer losses.
The mistakes made by pig companies are that innocent pigs are needed to pay for them.
If there is an afterlife, don't be a pig related to Zhengbang again, at least don't starve anymore.
02
The big pig farmers have lost tens of billions of dollars
In 2007, zhengbang technology's pig output was 83,200 heads.
In 2021, this number has become 14.9267 million heads, ranking second in the country.
At a team training meeting in March 2021, Lin Feng, chairman of Zhengbang Technology, made a bold statement
Towards the double goal of "100 million heads out of the column" and advancing into the world's top 500 companies.
At the price of 2,000 yuan per pig, the asset value of 15 million fat pigs alone is almost 30 billion.
Lin also wants to impact 100 million heads of "100 billion pig enterprises", why can't even afford pig feed now?
Public data show that the complete cost of commercial pig breeding is about 18 yuan / kg, and in 2021, the pig price once fell below the 11 yuan / kg mark.
Throughout 2021, the losses of 21 listed pig companies reached 43.1 billion yuan.
At the beginning of this year, the 2021 performance of a number of listed companies had a "thunderstorm":
Sunshine City pre-loss 4.5-5.8 billion;
Beiqi Blue Valley pre-loss of 4.8-5.3 billion yuan;
Shanghai Electric pre-loss 8.9-10.3 billion yuan;
Datang Power Generation pre-loss of 9-10.8 billion yuan;
Oceanwide Holdings pre-loss of 9-11 billion;
Huaneng International pre-loss of 9.8-11.7 billion;
China Eastern Airlines pre-loss of 11-13.5 billion yuan;
China Southern Airlines pre-loss of 11.3-12.8 billion yuan;
Air China's pre-loss of 14.5-18 billion yuan;
Zhengbang Technology pre-loss of 18.2-19.7 billion;
Huaxia Happiness pre-loss 33.1-39.1 billion;
Suning Tesco pre-loss of 42.3-43.3 billion yuan...
Among them, Zhengbang Technology is impressively listed.
In 2021, the company expects a full-year loss of 18.2 billion to 19.7 billion yuan, compared with the profit of 5.8 billion yuan in the same period of 2020, down 416.84% - 442.96% year-on-year, of which the loss in the fourth quarter exceeded 10 billion.
On the evening of June 8 this year, Zhengbang Technology issued an announcement saying:
Due to the shortage of liquidity, some commercial bills are overdue and unpaid, and the balance of overdue unpaid is 542 million, and the company will continue to actively negotiate with creditors to properly handle the overdue and unpaid matters of related commercial bills.
There are 3 billion in cash on the books, but not even 500 million commercial bills.
As soon as the news came out, in the next two trading days, the stock price of Zhengbang Technology fell by 10.89%.
Some time ago, Zhengbang Technology released a performance forecast, and it is expected that the net loss in the first half of this year will be 3.8 billion yuan to 4.6 billion yuan, and the year-on-year loss will expand by 165.72% to 221.66%.
Coupled with last year's losses, in less than two years, Zhengbang Technology lost more than 20 billion yuan!
As a listed company in 2007, in the past 14 years, the total net profit earned by Zhengbang Technology is only about 9.8 billion, which can be said to be "hard work for decades, a return to the pre-liberation period".
With the profits of the previous 14 years, together, 10 billion yuan was posted upside down, all lost.
03
Pig enterprises and fat pigs poured in the pig cycle?
It is easy for everyone to blame a series of explosions in Zhengbang as a "pig cycle".
Half of this is true, if it is because of the pig cycle, then the accident must not be more than Zhengbang, there are 21 pig companies listed in A-shares alone. The cyclical industry is both prosperous and loss-making. As the second largest enterprise in stock, Zhengbang has fallen, and other pig enterprises have been spared.
In fact, this time Zhengbang is the collapse of the foundation under the dual pressure of the pig cycle superimposed capital operation model failure.
To put it simply: high debt expansion meets pig cycle troughs.
First, let's talk about the impact of the pig cycle.
The so-called "pig cycle" refers to a cyclical economic phenomenon embodied in the price of pork.
Its circular trajectory is generally:
High pork prices - sow stocks increased significantly - pig supply increased - pork prices fell - a large number of sows eliminated - pig supply decreased - meat prices rose.
When the price of pigs enters the upward channel, retail investors will invest more productivity in pig raising, and when the new pig production capacity is out of the barn, the market supply and demand pattern enters a relaxed state, and pig prices begin to fall.
Similarly, when the price of live pigs enters the downward channel, productivity will gradually withdraw, the amount of pigs out of the barn will begin to decline, the market supply and demand pattern will enter a tight state, and the price of live pigs will begin to rise.
This process repeats itself over and over again, usually with a full cycle of 3-4 years.
The phenomenon of "grain hurting farmers" often mentioned in the pig cycle and economics is a truth.
In bumper harvest years, farmers' incomes are reduced because the market supply is sufficient, gradually more than demand, forming a "buyer's market", and the goods are not worth much.
This is true of pork prices and all commodities on the market.
Insufficient supply, pushing up prices, people see profits, rushing to "enter with funds". The more people involved, the more supply is excessive, and the final result is that everyone loses money together.
At the trough of the cycle, companies with pork stocks are bound to lose money or not make money. When pork prices enter the rising space, the profits of pork-related enterprises will also rise and enter the boom track again.
For example, in 2020, the price of pork soared, and the company made a lot of money, so that many people in the unknown followed the trend of "expanding production and expanding", and even switched to pig raising.
However, entering 2021, the continuous rise in feed prices and the pig prices that constantly refresh the bottom line have made them panic; Not only do you not make money, but you also have to lose money in it.
This is the most intuitive manifestation of the "pig cycle".
The valley hurts the people, and the valley hurts the farmers, so the life of the pig-raising enterprises under the downward pressure of pork prices is not good.
The same is the new hope of pork stocks, with a net profit loss of 9 billion yuan in 2021.
Wen's shares forecast that the company's net profit attributable to the mother is expected to lose 13 billion to 13.8 billion yuan.
As an industry leader, although Makihara shares have not pre-lost, they are expected to decline by more than 70% in net profit in 2021.
This goes back to the previous question, why is everyone else okay, only Zhengbang is in trouble?
To give you a cold knowledge of science, there are three models of pig breeding in our country:
1. Intensive large-scale breeding, that is, the pig farm self-operation model, the life and death of pigs and pigs are completely responsible for the company, such as Makihara, Wen's belongs to this category.
2. The company's self-operated + retail households, that is, the company raises a part of the pigs, but the scale is not enough and wants to expand, it pays for the material, let the pig farm help raise, the pig itself belongs to the company's assets, each pig gives the farmer a certain remuneration, like Zhengbang Technology, is 1.5 yuan / day per pig.
3. Farmers' free range farming, including pig farms with hundreds of pigs, all belong to this category.
China's pig industry has always had a problem – the concentration is too low. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture: with an annual output of 500 heads as the standard, non-large-scale aquaculture below this number accounted for 56% of the entire industry in 2015.
Half of China's pigs come from farmers who raise themselves free-range, mix some okara to feed them, and find someone to collect them every six months.
After experiencing the impact of the last round of pig cycle, a large-scale reshuffle occurred in the industry, the model of farmers' free range breeding began to withdraw, and a large number of capital entered the pig industry.
Because of the cycle rotation, the big process of large-scale pig breeding in China has begun.
Many pig enterprises choose "self-breeding, self-breeding and self-raising integration", and enterprises build standardized farms by themselves, and employ farm leaders, technicians and breeding workers.
In this mode, the initial investment of funds is high, the land demand is large, and the depreciation is large, but the process is controllable and the anti-risk ability is strong, representing the company as Makihara Group.
However, the model used by Zhengbang is "company self-operation + retail household support".
Different from heavy assets and high input, this model belongs to the asset-light model, which is easy to expand on a large scale, and the risk of concentrated outbreaks of epidemic diseases can also be effectively dispersed.
I have to say that the helmsman of Zhengbang has something in his head, and the routine of Internet companies is used in the traditional industry of pig breeding.
The development routine, like the online ride-hailing car in that year, is the axe of capital:
Capital expansion - capacity expansion - loss - refinancing expansion capacity - dry overturning opponents
It must be to borrow to the extreme, just waiting for the opponent to lie down.
Thanks to the unique breeding model, Zhengbang ushered in a new round of expansion. After 2019, as the pig cycle entered the boom stage, the biological assets of Zhengbang Technology increased significantly, of which in 2019 soared by about 3.6 times to 5.095 billion yuan, and in 2020, it increased by nearly 80% to 9.106 billion yuan, which is much faster than other pig companies.
In July 2020, Zhengbang's pig sales revenue of 3.1 billion yuan increased by nearly 250% year-on-year, and the performance was beyond imagination. At the same time, the stock price reached a new high in the week after the release of the results, with an increase of 22.25%.
However, the routine of large-scale debt development on the Internet is very limited - the level of debt is very high.
In 2020 alone, Zhengbang's investment in the purchase and construction of fixed assets, intangible assets and other long-term assets exceeded 10 billion yuan, more than double that of 2019.
The introduction of sows and the increase in fixed assets when pork prices were at a high level sowed the seeds for losses.
The crazy expansion of liabilities is nothing at all when the price of pork is booming, and the high prosperity of doubling profits in a year covers up all the problems.
Once the pig cycle begins to go down, pork prices begin to fall for a long time.
On the one hand, there is the debt that is expanding day by day, and on the other hand, the debt that is getting bigger and bigger.
What the final consequences are, you can imagine.
This is also why, although all pig companies are losing money, the problem of Zhengbang is particularly serious.
Rather than saying that Zhengbang and its 10 million pigs fell into the pig cycle, it is better to die on the idea of the deformed expansion of Internet companies.
Companies in cyclical industries often do not fall because of the cycle change, and most of them are killed by themselves.