The Paper's special contributor Liu Zhongmin
During the administration of former US President Trump, the United States vigorously promoted the arab countries and Israel to make peace, the agreement reached is the "Abraham Agreement", and tried to promote the United States and Israel, "moderate Arab countries" to establish a "Middle East version of NATO", the main goal of which is to contain Iran and consolidate the Middle East alliance system, but the plan to establish a "Middle East version of NATO" failed to materialize.
Since the Biden administration took office, in order to shift its strategic focus to great power strategic competition with Russia and China, the United States has continued to carry out strategic contraction from the Middle East, which is prominently manifested in withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, cooling down hotspot issues, and promoting détente in regional relations. However, due to the need for the US strategy of great power competition, especially the need to sanction and contain Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the need to build an international alliance to contain China, the United States also needs the cooperation of Middle East countries, especially its allies. Therefore, the United States cannot blindly reduce its investment in the Middle East, let alone completely abandon the Middle East, so it will dynamically adjust according to its needs, so that the Middle East region can serve its strategy of great power competition. It is against this backdrop that US President Joe Biden will visit Israel, the West Bank (Palestine) and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East from July 13 to 16.
On July 10, 2022, local time, in the Jerusalem area of Israel, US President Biden will visit Israel, and the flags of the two countries have been hoisted on the local streets. Visual China figure
First, the Middle East policy of the United States after biden's administration
First, vigorously promote the return to the Negotiations on the implementation of the JCPOA and are close to reaching an agreement, but it has been stalled by the outbreak and protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the serious differences between the United States and Iran. Since April 2021, the Vienna talks on the Iranian nuclear issue have been held for 9 rounds of negotiations, and the parties are expected to reach a compromise around the return of the United States to the Iranian nuclear agreement and the lifting of sanctions against Iran, and the simultaneous implementation of the treaty between the United States and Iran, but just when the negotiations are close to reaching an agreement, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out and became durable, coupled with the lack of trust between the United States and Iran, the current Negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement are once again in trouble.
Second, the "two-state solution" to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict was revived, but it did not have substantial results; At the same time, the United States continues to push israel to improve relations with Arab countries and has made significant progress. On the Palestinian-Israeli issue, the Trump administration has launched a series of extreme measures, but the Biden administration believes that the intensification of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is not conducive to the United States to compete as a great power, nor is it conducive to the United States gathering allies in the Arab world. Therefore, the United States has resumed the "two-state solution" and has repeatedly communicated with Palestine and Israel on restarting the "two-state solution" and exchanged views with Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other countries. As far as policy practice is concerned, the United States has no specific programs and substantive inputs, resulting in the continuous tension and conflict in Palestinian-Israeli relations in the past two years, but the United States has made achievements in continuing to promote arab countries and Israel, such as the rapid development of relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel.
Third, it has taken the initiative to cool down hot issues, but it has caused dissatisfaction among regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. On the issue of Yemen, for example, the Biden administration ended its support for saudi arabia and other countries' military operations in Yemen, removed the Houthis from the list of terrorists, urged Saudi Arabia to propose a peaceful solution to the war in Yemen, and demanded that Iran stop supporting the Houthis. U.S. policy on Syria, Libya, and Iraq has become increasingly low-key, avoiding a relapse into the Middle East's hot-button issues. But the U.S. repression of its saudis, the United Arab Emirates and other allies on the Yemen issue has caused dissatisfaction among allies.
Biden Visual China Infographic
Second, the purpose of Biden's visit to the Middle East
Biden's visit comes against the background of the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the resumption of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement, the dissolution of the Knesset, the intensification of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the acceleration of Saudi Arabia's domestic and foreign policy adjustments, and the continuous differentiation and combination of regional countries, and its purpose mainly includes the following aspects:
First, appease the dissatisfaction of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other allies, and win the support of Middle Eastern countries for sanctioning Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In particular, it is necessary to strive for Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf countries to cooperate with the United States in stabilizing energy prices and ensuring European energy supply. Biden restarted the Iranian nuclear negotiations after taking office, criticized the Yemen policy of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, reduced US military support for him and cancelled some arms sales, all of which made Saudi Arabia and other countries seriously dissatisfied. Biden's trip to the Middle East, therefore, clearly has the intention of appeasing allies.
Second, build a "Middle East air defense alliance" between Israel and the so-called "moderate Arab countries", establish a "Middle East version of NATO" against Iran, and achieve a balance between the Middle East with the proposed Iranian nuclear agreement. That is, to restrain Iran through the Iranian nuclear agreement, to meet the security interests of allies through the "Middle East Air Defense Alliance", and to play the role of the "Middle East version of NATO" in the Middle East to counter China and Russia (NATO's Madrid summit has included the Middle East and Africa in the scope of confrontation with China and Russia). The United States will continue to promote the Abraham Accords, which normalize diplomatic relations between Arab countries and Israel, and promote the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Third, symbolically promote the "two-state solution" of the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks and safeguard the image of the United States in the Middle East. This is one of the purposes of Biden's visit to Israel and Palestine, and Biden may make certain gestures in demanding some concessions from Israel, providing assistance to Palestine, and urging Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries to do palestinian internal work, but at present, the United States does not have the ability and will to solve the Palestinian-Israeli issue, and its main purpose is to show "political correctness."
What is the intention of the United States and Israel in promoting the establishment of the "Middle East Air Defense Alliance"?
There is no official policy document on the "Middle East Air Defense Alliance," which Was first revealed to the outside world on June 20 by Israeli Defense Minister Gantz, who said Israel was building a U.S.-funded "Middle East Air Defense Coalition" and thwarting Iran's "attack attempts." However, Israel did not specify the specific content of the "Middle East Air Defense Alliance" and the participating countries.
Some media analysis pointed out that Israel has built a dense air defense system, consisting of missile defense systems such as American Patriots, homemade Arrow, David's Sling, and Iron Dome to guard against various air threats such as enemy fighters, missiles, rockets, and drones. The "Middle East Air Defense Alliance" may be the expansion and regionalization of Israel's prevention and control system. Israel's disclosure of this information is largely in preparation for Biden's visit to the Middle East on July 13-16.
The "Middle East Air Defense Alliance" should have a coordinated relationship with the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries promoted by the United States through the Abraham Accords. The Abraham Accords is a diplomatic treaty by the United States to normalize relations between Israel and Arab countries, a diplomatic and political arrangement for the United States to adjust and consolidate its alliance system in the Middle East, and to serve the settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli issue. On September 15, 2020, the Four Parties of the United States, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain signed an agreement to confirm the normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Sudan and Morocco, which normalized relations with Israel in 2021, also joined the agreement. The agreement is called the "Abrahamic Agreement" because Abraham was a common prophet of the three major religions of Judaism, Christianity and Islam.
The "Middle East Air Defense Alliance" is a continuation of the Middle East alliance system formed by the Trump administration in the United States against Iran, that is, from the "Abraham Agreement" based on politics and diplomacy to the "Middle East Air Defense Alliance" based on the military and security fields, and finally forming a US-led Middle East alliance system.
Judging from the interaction between the United States and Middle Eastern countries in the past two or three years, especially since the beginning of this year, the countries participating in the "Middle East Air Defense Alliance" should be dominated by the United States Gulf allies and the countries of the Abraham Accord, while the political and diplomatic alliance will be expanded to Egypt (1979), Jordan (1994), and even Iraq, which first established diplomatic relations with Israel. This can be observed from recent activities in the United States and Middle Eastern countries: the Negev Desert Summit in the United States, Israel, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco in early April 2022; Egypt, Israel and the United Arab Emirates convene a tripartite meeting in Sharm El Sheikh; Jordan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq held the Aqaba Summit.
In the above activities, in addition to Egypt and Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco are all countries that normalized relations with Israel in 2020-2021 under the framework of the Abraham Accord, and Israel and the United Arab Emirates participated in several activities, which shows that they are two important countries that play an organizational role. From June 19 to 22, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Salman visited Egypt, Jordan and Turkey over a four-day period to strengthen coordination with Egypt and Jordan and ease relations with Turkey, all of which should be closely related to welcoming Biden's visit to the Middle East and discussing the "Middle East Air Defense Alliance".
Fourth, the possible negative impact of Biden's visit to the Middle East
First, it has a destructive effect on the current détente in international relations in the Middle East, especially in intensifying the confrontation between Israel and Iran and undermining the dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Since the "Arab Spring" in 2011, conflict confrontation and zero-sum games have constituted the core characteristics of international relations in the Middle East, especially the relations between regional powers, and have shown typical identity political characteristics such as camping, ideology, and agency, forming a group confrontation with intertwined ethnic and sectarian contradictions, the main contradictions of which include the confrontation between The Sunnis and Shiites centered on Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the "pro-Muslim Brotherhood camp" and "anti-Muslim Brotherhood camp" led by Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The confrontation has led to the formation of the three major power centers of Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, as well as the traditional and alternative regional power, Israel, which has continuously influenced the restructuring of regional forces in a complex competitive way.
With the adjustment of US Middle East policy and regional internal changes, the relationship between regional powers has been positively eased since the middle of 2021, and the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab countries, Turkey's relations with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and other Arab countries, the relations within the Gulf Cooperation Council, the relations between Arab countries and Syria, and the relations between Israel and Arab countries have all seen dialogue and détente. Since 2022, international relations in the Middle East have been extremely active, with various high-level exchanges of visits and summits coming one after another, and regional international relations have continued to ease.
At present, there are three main lines of détente in international relations in the Middle East, namely, the improvement of relations between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel with regional countries, and the improvement of relations within the GCC. However, it is worth noting that the confrontation between Israel and Iran is still intensifying, the dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran is still insufficient, and Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates will be the main allies that the United States relies on to promote the establishment of the "Middle East Air Defense Alliance", and its prevention target is Iran, which will undoubtedly further intensify the confrontation between Israel and Iran, undermine the relaxation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and then reverse the trend of easing international relations in the Middle East in 2022.
Second, the establishment of the "Middle East Air Defense Alliance" is likely to lead to a strong confrontation between the anti-Iranian camp and Iran in the Middle East, and increase regional tensions; Iran is also likely to delay or even halt the Iranian nuclear negotiations and continue to respond to the challenges of the anti-Iranian camp by raising the level of nuclear development activities.
In the context of the international community's reduced attention to the Middle East after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Israel continues to bomb "Iranian targets" in Syria, targets in Iran have been destroyed, senior officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have been assassinated repeatedly and are mostly suspected of being committed by Israel, such as the establishment of the "Middle East Air Defense Alliance" and continuous pressure on Iran, Iran will greatly organize Shiite forces in the region to attack Israel and anti-Iraqi forces such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, thereby exacerbating regional tensions, especially syria, Yemen, Iraq and the waters of the Persian Gulf will be the focus of the struggle between the two sides and lead to increased friction and conflict. At present, the United States implements a two-handed policy, while advancing the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement, and forming an anti-Iraqi regional alliance, which will make it difficult for the stimulated Iran to accept, and may even suspend the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement, and respond to the challenge of the anti-Iraqi camp with bolder nuclear development and radical countermeasures.
Thirdly, the further marginalization of the question of Palestine will continue to reduce the concern of Arab countries about the Palestinian-Israeli issue, the Arab world will continue to be divided, the situation of Palestine will be more difficult, and the Palestinian radical forces will continue to oppose Israel in a violent manner.
In recent years, the continued polarization of the Arab world, the growing right-wing nature of Israel, the serious divisions within Palestine, and the shift of the core concerns of the Arab states since the "Arab Spring" to their own security and development have led to the procrastination and marginalization of the question of Palestine, and the confidence of Arab countries in the settlement of the question of Palestine has been seriously frustrated or even on the verge of being destroyed. The "Middle East Air Defense Alliance" will continue to push Israel closer to Arab countries on the basis of the "Abraham Agreement", and it will be increasingly difficult for the Arab world to collectively confront Israel on the Palestinian-Israeli issue. For the more difficult Palestinians, the establishment of the "Middle East Air Defense Alliance" will enable Israel to strengthen its military pressure on the Palestinian side, especially Hamas, and the intensification of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and Israel's military high pressure will stimulate Palestinian militant forces to oppose Israel in a more extreme way.
Of course, the impact on Biden's visit to the Middle East cannot be overestimated. In recent years, in view of the united states' continuous abandonment of regional allies because of egoism, or reduced support for allies, the trust of middle Eastern allies in the United States has shown a downward trend, and it has been balanced by strengthening cooperation with China and Russia; The United States is inherently contradictory in its own approach of stepping up negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement and forming a "Middle East Air Defense Alliance", especially Saudi Arabia and Iran are wary of the two-sided nature of the United States; At present, Russia and Iran have strong opposition to the "Middle East Air Defense Alliance", and they will certainly respond and respond according to the developments. What is more important is the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the intensification of confrontation between the United States and Russia will constitute a constraint on the US policy of managing the Middle East.
"Middle East Review" is a column by Professor Liu Zhongmin of the Institute of Middle East Studies of Shanghai University of foreign Chinese, which adheres to the combination of reality, theory and foundation, and responds to practical problems with historical and theoretical depth.
Responsible editor: Zhu Zhengyong Photo editor: Shi Jiahui
Proofreader: Yijia Xu