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✪ Daniel Zhang
Institute Japan Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Recently, the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has aroused global concern. As a former prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe has a distinct personality and a unique governing style. These personality traits also shape their foreign policy preferences to some extent.
As a reform-oriented leader, Abe compares himself to a "combat politician" who is proactive in his leadership and goal-oriented.
Abe is a power-hungry man who dares to confront political setbacks and focuses on ways and means.
At the level of core interpersonal relations, the Abe regime showed a distinct "small group" color, and once focused on the appointment of "close" people.
He emphasizes both "face" and "inside". When "face" conflicts with "lizi", the latter takes precedence.
The factors that affect the formation of Abe's personality are both the spiritual nourishment of his hometown of Choshu Domain, as well as the "legacy" of Kishi DNA and Jintaro, and his tempering of study, employment, and especially politics cannot be ignored.
On major national policy issues with "spillover" effects, Abe is both strategically stuck to the "core" and relatively pragmatic in tactics.
Overall, Abe has a retro view of the state, with both the tough side of the outside world characteristic of hawkish politicians and the extremely pragmatic side of the realist.
Abe's political ambition was to get rid of the "post-war system" and to promote the "double transformation" of the strategy and decision-making mechanism.
He focused on the economy, but more on diplomacy and security, with the aim of making Japan a full-fledged power.
In 2020, when the new crown epidemic struck, Abe's plan to use the Tokyo Olympics to promote the Japanese economy was completely shattered, and then he "fell ill" and went to the field. then
It is widely believed that Abe still has the ambition to worship three times.
He brought to power Suga, who was not a threat to him, and after the collapse of Suga's cabinet, he supported Japan's current Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, to come to power.
But Kishida Fumio was reluctant to be Abe's marionette. After that, Abe and Kishida, one in the opposition and the other in the DPRK, sang against each other.
It is worth noting that after Abe stepped down, in order to maintain his influence, he constantly hyped up the Taiwan Strait issue, and even advocated the so-called "Taiwan has a problem is a Matter for Japan", resulting in tension in the Taiwan Strait.
The assassination of Abe this time may trigger a major earthquake in Japanese politics, and as for the follow-up impact, it depends on the trial of the case and the internal game of the Liberal Democratic Party.
This article was originally published in The Diplomatic Review, No. 6, 2017, originally titled "Tao Obscure "Dove": Abe Shinzo's Personality Traits and Foreign Policy Preferences", transferred from the "Eurasian Systems Science Research Society", the article only represents the author's views, for your reference.
Obscure "Dove":
Abe's personality traits and foreign policy preferences
▍Who is Abe: Growing Up and Developing Personality
In Machiavelli's writing, the ideal monarch must be a fox who recognizes traps, and at the same time a lion that deters the jackal. It is worth mentioning that the well-known American writer Burns's "Roosevelt: The Lion and the Fox" has also won many awards.
What about Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe?
One word that came to my eyes was "dove." Gerald Curtis, a well-known American expert on Japan, once used "Cautious Hawks" to describe Abe. Hisahiko Okazaki, known as Abe's "National Master," has a motto that reads, "Birds don't flock." In Abe's book "Determination to Defend the Country" in which Abe and Okazaki collaborated, Okazaki also described Kishi Nobusuke as "no flock of birds" and encouraged Abe.
"Abe has a Kishi Shinsuke in his heart," said Toshihisa Hara, a professor emeritus at Tokyo International University who has interviewed former Japanese Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi more than 20 times and is the first person in Japanese academia to be the first "Kishi Researcher"! Yoko Abe's mother, Yoko Abe, also held this view, saying that Abe was like his grandfather, Kishi Nobusuke, in terms of "policy" and more like his father, Shintaro Abe, in "politics" and more like his father, Shintaro Abe.
Abe Shinzo, originally an "ordinary person" who happened to be born in a political family, his qualifications were no different from normal people, he did not understand politics at first, and even after entering society, he once thought about it and lived a life. However, through the conscious cultivation of the original family as a "political magnate" and constantly tempered in the melting pot of society, Abe has both the "attachment" of Kishi Nobusuke to the main political goals, and the "training" of Jintaro in handling interpersonal relations, the idealistic and even utopian side, and the extreme pragmatism side, a seemingly contradictory person, a "dove" who is well versed in the art of "obscurity". As a "dove", he had what he really wanted in his heart (that is, to finally "get rid of defeat" through what Abe called "really conservative"), but due to the limitations of time and space, he had to temporarily and strategically converge on his front, step by step, waiting for the opportunity. As a new generation of politicians, Abe, born after the war, elected to the Diet after the Cold War, became the prime minister of Japan after the new millennium, and was born before the war, experienced war, and went to prison with the crime of Class A suspect, and soon after he was released from prison, he entered the political circles and became a generation of prime ministers, known as the "Showa yokai", kishi Nobusuke, and the "tragic" politician Abe Shintaro, who held important party and government positions and was only one step away from the "throne" of the prime minister, had different life experiences and political encounters, and the era in which the three lived could not be simply compared.
Who is Abe?
Shinzo Abe was born in Tokyo in 1954. "Although my generation is often referred to as the 'indifferent generation' because I grew up in a family like my grandfather and father were politicians, and I have heard about it for a long time, I always have more awareness of 'the country' than my peers."
From 1960 to 1973, Abe attended Nariki Elementary, Middle, and High School. In 1977, he graduated from the Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law, Sungkei University. Soon, Abe began his education career in the United States. After returning to Japan, he joined the Kobe Steel Institute and was ordered to study at the company's New York office. According to his recollection, he learned a lot from his predecessors through his work. In particular, "you can't be arrogant when dealing with Americans, but you can't be quiet." Even if the other party is older and higher, they must interact with each other on an equal footing. After finishing his work in New York, Abe began to sit in the office at the Kakogawa Factory in Hyogo Prefecture, participating in business management to improve product quality and work efficiency.
The clerk's life was full, but his father's words changed his destiny. Abe called his true "politics career" began in 1982. That same year, Shintaro Abe was appointed foreign minister in the cabinet of Yasuhiro Nakasone, while Shinzo Abe worked in the export department of the head office. One day, he was stopped by his father before going to work.
Jintaro: "Make me a secretary." ”
Jinzo: "Since when?" ”
Jintaro: "Tomorrow! ”
Jinzo: "I'm still working at the company, which is also a job that costs billions of yen a year." ”
Jintaro: "When I started working as a secretary, I quit my newspaper job within a day. ”
Although he was surprised by his father's words, it was one of the thoughts that had moved in Abe's mind, so he quickly made a decision. "But I didn't want to cause trouble for the company, and after I started working at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I went to the head office every day when things were busy or when I was free, to complete the handover and aftermath." I was 28 years old. "A dialogue between father and son, concise and intriguing. First, Jintaro's hope and cultivation of his son jumped out; Second, in front of his father, Abe was not, at least superficially, a "rebel." He obeyed his father's arrangement.
When Nakasone was prime minister, he made Shintaro Abe minister for four consecutive terms, for 3 years and 8 months. After starting his life as a foreign minister's secretary, Abe frequently traveled the world with his father. "My father visited 39 times, and I accompanied him 20 times."
In 1993, after inheriting his father's "ticket field", Abe was elected to the House of Representatives for the first time. This year, Hosokawa Gouxi came to power. In Abe's view, the LDP split, losing more than half of the seats in the House of Representatives elections. In the following election for the nomination of prime minister, hosokawa lost to Hosokawa, who advertised itself as a "non-self-reliant" and supported by seven parties and one faction. Since the merger of the two major conservative parties in 1955, the Liberal Democratic Party, which has been in power for 38 years, has finally lost power. Abe was born a year before the establishment of Japan's "55-year system." He became a member of Parliament in 1993, when the non-LDP coalition regime emerged, when the system ended. During the year of the LDP's downfall, Abe claimed to have learned a lot, and the LDP's transformation from metamorphosis to regeneration also caused him to undergo a spiritual baptism.
After entering politics, Abe had a smooth ride, and in just a few years he reached the pinnacle of power and became prime minister. Although he remained politically naïve, Abe rose through the ranks of his political prowess and his grandparents' painstaking connections: in 1999 he became a member of the House of Representatives' Health and Welfare Committee and chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party's Social Department, in 2000 he served as deputy chief cabinet secretary (second period of Mori period, cabinet reform), in 2001 deputy chief cabinet secretary (second Mori cabinet reform), cabinet cabinet deputy chief (first Koizumi initial cabinet), In 2002, he was deputy chief cabinet secretary (the first Koizumi reform cabinet), in 2003 was the secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party, in 2004 he was acting secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party and minister for the promotion of party reform, and in 2005 he was chief cabinet secretary (the third Koizumi reform cabinet). In 2006, he became president of the Liberal Democratic Party and 90th prime minister. September 21 of that year marks Abe's 52nd birthday, and Abe's career as a politician has only been 13 years since he was elected to the National Assembly in 1993. In the conservative Liberal Democratic Party, it is rare for a president with such shallow seniority. In Japan's history, there has never been such a young prime minister since the war.
However, in 2007, Abe resigned as prime minister due to repeated scandals and physical reasons among members of the "Friends Cabinet". In the new edition of "To a Beautiful Motherland," Abe confesses: "As a politician, I am a person who has experienced major setbacks. "In the five years since Shimono, the vast majority of people around me have opposed him coming out again, believing that the odds of victory are unpredictable." If the election fails, even a politician will not be able to do it. But after several ideological struggles, Abe made up his mind to run. He was re-elected president of the Liberal Democratic Party in September 2012 and became the 96th Prime Minister in December. In December 2014 and November 2017, he continued the momentum of "Abe's strong" and served as the 97th and 98th prime ministers consecutively.
The factors that affect the formation of Abe's personality are both the spiritual nourishment of his hometown "Choshu Domain", as well as the "legacy" of "Kishi DNA" and Jintaro, and his tempering of study, employment, and especially politics cannot be ignored.
(1) The spiritual nourishment of the "Choshu Domain"
If Ise City, where Ise Jingu Shrine is located, is a spiritual shrine for the Japanese, then yamaguchi Prefecture, its hometown, is the spiritual hometown that provides Abe with endless nourishment. Yamaguchi Prefecture, known as Choshu Domain in ancient times, was connected to the Korean Peninsula in ancient times, with which there were close personnel exchanges and cultural exchanges.
Before the Meiji Restoration, the Choshu Domain had secretly accumulated strength for a long time and was known as the birthplace of the Restoration. The late-shogunate thinker Yoshida Shoin set up a private school here, presided over the "Matsushita Village School", and trained leaders such as Takayoshi Kido, Shinsaku Takasugi, Hirobumi Ito, and Aritomo Yamagata. Yoshida was known as the spiritual teacher of the Meiji Restoration, and was called the first work of the Restoration by Liang Qichao. However, it is worth vigilance that there is a strong element of national expansionism in its thinking, which also has a certain influence on the formation of Japanese militarist thought.
The politicians of Yamaguchi Prefecture have been passed down from generation to generation through their bloodline and have occupied an important place in Japan's political history. Among them, Ito Hirobumi, Yamagata Aritomo, Katsura Terauchi Masaki, Yoshiichi Tanaka, Kishi Nobusuke, Eisaku Sato, and Shinzo Abe successively became prime ministers, ranking first in the country. In addition, Abe's father, Jintaro, was also regarded as the closest person to the prime minister's throne.
A politician from Yamaguchi is known as the "Choshu Gang". One of the things they have in common is that most of them hold a nationalist stance. This was largely the case whether it was Ito, who provoked the Sino-Japanese War and colonized Korea, Yama prefecture, which planned to launch the Sino-Japanese Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War, who decided to annex Korea, Tanaka, the initiator of the "Tanaka Fold," or Kishi and Sato, who carried out the pro-Taiwan and anti-communist line after the war. It also records a scene of humiliation of the Chinese nation at the end of the 19th century. After the Sino-Japanese War, Li Hongzhang signed the Treaty of Maguan with Ito, which had a profound impact on both China and Japan.
(2) "Kishi DNA" and Jintaro's "Legacy"
Although the Meiji Restoration overthrew feudal rule, it retained the feudal element to a large extent, and the political large family system is a more representative example. Since the war, especially the kishi, Sato, and Abe families have firmly controlled the votes here. The three major families either marry each other or give each other adopted children, forming a large and strong network of relationships.
Kishi Nobusuke, originally the son of Hidesuke Sato, was named Kishi Nobusuke because of his succession to the Kishi family. His brother was Eisaku Sato, who was also Japan's post-war prime minister. After graduating from Tokyo Imperial University with honors, Kishi insisted on being admitted as a civil servant in the Ministry of Agriculture, Commerce and Industry despite the persuasion of his surroundings. In 1936, he was appointed to an important position in the industrial sector of "Puppet Manchukuo". In 1941, he was appointed Minister of Commerce and Industry in the Hideki Tojo Cabinet, and during the war, he actively promoted wartime economic rule and raised funds for the war of aggression.
After the war, the International Military Tribunal for the Far East found him a Class A war criminal suspect and detained him in Sugamo Prison in Tokyo for three years. When the Korean War broke out, the US Government changed its occupation policy and decided to support Japan as a base for defending the Communists in the Far East, and no longer strictly prosecuted most of the war criminals in custody. The U.S. general saw a document containing a dispute between Kishi and Tojo over the Battle of Saipan and used this as a ground to dispense with him. In 1948, Kishi was deprived of his personal liberty. After his release from prison at Sugamo, he once used a Chinese poem to express his feelings: "Three years of Hum to start stretching, but also today's Vientiane New." Who clouds and countries break the mountains and rivers in, full of spring under the sky. In 1952, the shore was lifted from the "purge" and began to formally return to politics. In 1954, he supported Ichiro Hatoyama in forming the Democratic Party of Japan and served as secretary general. In 1955, he actively promoted the conservative grand coalition and served as the secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party. In 1956, he was appointed Foreign Minister of the Ishibashi Zhanshan Cabinet. In February 1957, Ishibashi resigned due to illness and became acting prime minister of Kishi, who succeeded him as prime minister.
The biggest issue the Kishi Cabinet is trying to solve is the revision of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty. He argues that the old treaty stipulated that Japan would provide bases to the United States, and that although the United States had promised, it had no obligation to protect Japan; There is also no obligation to consult with Japan regarding the use of bases. Kishi was committed to amending the treaty, and he used his majority in the House of Representatives to forcibly vote on May 19, 1960. The day before the vote, the Parliament and the Prime Minister's residence were surrounded by 330,000 demonstrators.
The memories of childhood with my grandfather are particularly deep in Abe's mind. He was just 6 years old, had not yet entered elementary school, and was playing with his younger brother Kishi Nobuo at his grandfather's house. Demonstrators outside the wall shouted "against security" and threw stones and bundles of newspapers that lit the fire into the walls. In Abe's view, the slogans of the demonstrations in the distance are like the accompaniment of temple fairs, which is very interesting. So he and his brother also frolicked, stomping their feet and shouting at Nobusuke Kishi, "Oppose security!" Against security! Abe's parents had no choice but to scold their children in a half-joking tone, shouting "Support security!" Abe later recalled that Grandpa was smiling at him and looking very happy.
In addition to revising the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, Kishi had another plan, that is, to amend the Constitution, and its ambitions and abilities were so great that it was vigilant against his pre-war experience, and even within the Party there were opposition movements. As a result, he could only stop at amending the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty. Seeing the collapse of the powerful Kishi Cabinet, the leaders of successive LDP leaders in the Cold War no longer dared to take action on major policies such as the Constitution and security treaties. The Liberal Democratic Party, which advocates a self-governing constitution, has focused on economic growth. This has also won the support of the people and laid a deep foundation for the LDP's long-term rule.
Since childhood, Kishi has been Abe's idol, a "sincere politician who only thinks about the future of the country." Abe once said of my grandfather: "I am proud of his attitude of being able to resolutely face the clamor of society and his calm attitude." It should be said that as a mother, Yoko consciously took her son and Kishita around, and also built a respectable and learned grandfather image for Abe at that time.
If Kishi shaped Abe on a spiritual level, Jintaro provided an adult model for Abe to deal with the "political situation" as a person. In Abe's view, before becoming a secretary, there were only a handful of conversations between father and son. Because of his father's secretary, father and son began to have the opportunity to be close to the secretary as politicians, and fathers and sons.
A close observation of Jintaro's diplomacy, especially with the United States, the Soviet Union and other major powers, makes Abe's memory particularly deep. He believes that his father's task is to promote "pioneering diplomacy." At that time, the relationship between President Reagan and Prime Minister Nakasone was very famous, and his father and Secretary of State Schultz also established a deep relationship of trust. Japan-U.S. relations were friendly during this period, and it was these different levels of trust that played a role. Similarly, in Japan-Soviet relations, Abe accompanied his father, who was suffering from pancreatic cancer, to see Gorbachev and witnessed the inter-party exchanges between the LDP and the CPSU, one of the important achievements of "pioneering diplomacy." In Abe's eyes, this was the ultimate diplomacy that took his life, and Jintaro's weight was reduced from 72 kilograms to 57 kilograms. In front of the meeting with Gorbachev, in order to make the body look stronger, Jintaro put two layers of underwear inside the suit, put something between the two layers, and then discharged from the hospital. "This was the last time my father made an appearance on a formal occasion. A month later, my father was gone. "To achieve his goals, politicians cannot be indifferent," said Shinzo Abe, as political secretary, as "a valuable lesson I received from my father."
(3) Study and work experience
Shintaro Abe has three sons with his wife Yoko. The eldest son, Hironobu, the second son, Jinsan, and the third son, succeeded Yoko's older brother Kishi Nobuwa as his adopted son, taking the name Kishi Nobuo. The name of forgiveness is intriguing. "Wide" is taken from Abe's grandfather Abe Kuan, while "Letter" is taken from Kishi Nobusuke. It can be seen that as the eldest son, he was originally placed high hopes by the family.
Abe's Nariki Gakuen, which consists of elementary school, junior high school, high school, and college, was where Abe and his eldest brother spent their student days. The reason why I studied here is mainly due to kishi Nobusuke's strong recommendation from Nariki Gakuen that he saw the spirit of Yoshida Shoin's establishment of Matsushita Mura-juku in that year.
In fact, leniency is not keen on politics. In contrast to his brother, Abe became increasingly interested in politics. But even so, when he first started high school, Abe was surprised to hear that there was a political party in Britain called the Conservative Party. Once, the teacher gave a lecture on the stage and proposed that the 1970 security treaty should be used as an opportunity to repeal the Japan-US Security Treaty. At the time, Abe didn't know much about the security treaty, but he refuted it firmly. He told his teacher: "The new treaty also has economic provisions, which advocate economic cooperation between Japan and the United States." He had heard Kishi say that the security treaty contained elements to promote Economic Cooperation between Japan and the United States, which was of great significance to Japan's development. The teacher looked unhappy and hurriedly diverted the topic. The entire class seems to have targeted Abe. As a result, Abe gradually strengthened the understanding that those who clamor for innovation and anti-regime criticism of the content without thinking deeply are incredible. After entering college, Abe thoroughly studied the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty and became convinced that "this is a treaty that is vital to Japan's future."
After becoming his father's secretary, especially in his last year with him, and seeing that his father "gambled his life to do things", Abe made up his mind to pursue politics as a career. From 1982 until Jintaro's death, Abe was close by as a secretary. His long career as secretary not only gave him time to inherit his father's relationships, but also gave many politicians time to familiarize themselves with Abe's personality, character, and political style. Abe once said: Fortunately, since I was a secretary, I have been exposed to the ideas and theories of many excellent intellectuals. At that time, especially the ideas of Okazaki Hisahiko and Nakanishi Keimasa, had a great influence on Abe. In the case of Okazaki, when Kintaro was foreign minister, Okazaki was the director of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Abe specifically studied his "What is Strategic Thinking?" and other books. After becoming a member of the Diet, Abe began to frequently participate in various young parliamentarians' study meetings and actively discussed various major issues related to Japan. On the recommendation of Xie Yexin, Abe, as a first-term student of the Diet, also participated in the "Shared Accommodation" organized by the private person Kasai Keiyuki. Gather once or twice a year, choose a topic at a time, and discuss it all night. Whether it is the constitution, finances, or diplomacy, it all comes down to the theme of building a "highly respected Japan."
▍ Abe's personality traits
The above lists Abe's experience of growing up, the factors that affect the formation of his personality, and help us to "follow Tu Suoji" and summarize his basic characteristics as a "person".
(1) Personality type
The study of personality in political psychology has certain reference significance for dissecting Abe's political personality. Based on the analysis of the book "The Character of the President", leaders can be divided into four categories from two dimensions: the degree of work commitment and the sense of accomplishment of enjoying the presidency: active leaders are workaholics and also enjoy the position of supreme leader; The active negative type is enthusiastic about work, but seems to dislike the leadership position; Passive and active, less enthusiastic about work, but prefer the presidency; Passive type, neither enthusiastic about work, nor enjoy the treatment of the position. The above practical division provides a more feasible framework for us to understand Abe's personality, work style, and political actions. From the first dimension, Abe is active. He believes that as long as you work hard, you can not only change the direction of the development of affairs, but also change the fate of a person or even a country.
Abe's initiative is also reflected in his ability to make comprehensive judgments based on a broad strategic vision, focusing on decomposing goals and seeking to achieve them one by one. In the five years since he came to power again at the end of 2012, he has devoted great enthusiasm to his work, and he has been very dedicated and dedicated. The data on the "Prime Minister's movements" strongly prove this. With the implementation of "diplomacy overlooking the earth", Abe has become the most visited by any prime minister in the past. In the second dimension, Abe has enjoyed the satisfaction of leadership since his second term. Its self-confidence enhancement is also one of the manifestations. In a way, Abe completed the "legacy" that his grandfather and father failed to complete. At the same time, he also laid the foundation for a long-term ruling Liberal Democratic Party regime, getting rid of the situation of "one phase a year" since Junichiro Koizumi came to power. By winning a large percentage of elections, the "distorted Congress" pattern has been largely resolved. In addition, at the level of domestic public opinion that he is particularly concerned about, Abe has also maintained a relatively high approval rating for a long time.
(2) Political views and beliefs
Abe once confessed that "I am not a 'liberal' like the United States," but "conservative," and even more so, "open conservatism." He said that since he was a child, he knew that his grandfather, Kishi Nobusuke, was called "the embodiment of conservative and reactionary power" and "the dark curtain in politics." Probably because of the "reverse psychology" that everyone has, Abe has always had a special affinity for the word "conservative". He went on to say that conservatism is not an ideology, but a gesture when thinking about Japan and the Japanese. We also have responsibilities not only for the present and the future, but also for those who lived in the past. In other words, why have the traditions that have been born and formed in Japan's long history for a hundred years or a thousand years been preserved? There is often insight into this, which is the spirit of "conservatism".
Abe's political credo is to be a "combat politician." He divided politicians from history and present into two main types, namely "combat politicians" and "non-war politicians". The most important thing for the so-called "combat politicians" is to dare to do things for the sake of the country and the people, and not to be afraid of accusations. The so-called "non-war politicians" are, although they agree with your statement, they do not dare to boldly express it and become the target of public criticism. He believes that no matter what era, "combat politicians" are in the minority. Since his first election to the House of Representatives, Abe has often exhorted himself to be a "combat politician." "This is not to act recklessly, but to listen to the voice of the people" and "for Japan, we must speak out."
"Self-defeating shrinking, although tens of millions of people are looking forward to it." This is a quote from Mencius, which Abe's "fellow countryman" Yoshida Shoin loved. In Abe's view, after independent and deep thinking, if you believe that you are not wrong, you must not be afraid of criticism and move forward. When questioned by Congress, Abe also quoted a phrase from his grandfather's eulogy: Politicians move by faith. "I will uphold my own creed", "Even if ten million people oppose it." ”
(3) Leadership style
In his book "On Leadership", Burns divides the performance of leaders in exerting leadership into moral, political, intellectual, reform, revolutionary, heroic, public opinion, group, political party, legislative, executive, and so on. The above types can be summarized into two basic types, namely reform and transaction. Speaking of reform, former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is a good match for this. Because of its unique governing philosophy and style of doing things, it is called "a wolf". In order to successfully achieve the goal of reform, he often pushed all opponents to the opposite side, or directly became enemies. For example, due to the privatization of postal services, he did not hesitate to break with his parent body, the Liberal Democratic Party, and even put forward the slogan of "smashing the Liberal Democratic Party" in order to attract the attention of public opinion. Compared with Koizumi, Abe often appears to be lacking in boldness and seems to lack principles. Among them, after being elected prime minister, it was also criticized that the retired people of the Koizumi period were revived, and once affected the support of the cabinet. But Abe's toughness is more in his bones. The family's political genes are strong enough, and the experience of political setbacks is unforgettable, so that Abe hides a heart that promotes political and social change under the appearance of peace. Under the banner of "getting rid of defeat", what successive cabinets wanted to do but did not do. Even his first term of office led to the promotion of the Defense Agency to the Ministry of Defense and the enactment of the Basic Law on Education. After his second term, he established the National Security Council, formulated the National Security Strategy, the outline of the new Defense Plan, and the Medium-term Defense Force Development Plan, and passed the "New Security Law", which greatly broke through the positions and actions of previous prime ministers in the field of security policy, including his grandfather. Of course, Abe also has a transactional side to him. He once made it clear: "I am often criticized as hawkish, and I never care about that." That is the aim of ensuring the lives and property of the people and the peace and stability of the country. As a means, I will, depending on the situation, and not rule out the choice between the left and the hawks. In the past five years of governance, Abe's characteristics in this regard are particularly obvious.
(4) The need for power
Politicians are right to pursue power. Abe's thirst for power was also gradually stimulated. The downfall of his grandfather, the father's "death before he left the school", and the influence of the family's ambitions and regrets on Abe was enormous. Being elected prime minister and completing the unfinished political tasks of his elders have largely become the "fate" that Abe cannot escape, and as his mother Yoko said, Abe is the "son of fate". Leaving the prime minister's residence in 2007 under the guise of "ulcerative colitis" and re-entering the presidency in 2012, the experience of "falling together" has made Abe's understanding and desire for power even better.
According to Abe, when he considered running for president of the Liberal Democratic Party again in 2012, there was almost all opposition except for his wife, Akie Abe. But after a rational assessment, especially after listening to the evaluation of him by the party and the township party, Abe resolutely decided to go out. Without a strong demand for power (or by exercising power to prove itself), perhaps there would be no Abe as we see it now.
(5) Interpersonal relationship style
Because of his long-term study in the United States and his claim to be influenced by individualistic ideas, Abe sometimes expressed his opinions regardless of status, age or age, thinking that if the idea was correct, it could be adopted immediately. Therefore, at first, there were also comments that he was a bit "proud". But after entering politics, to a certain extent, Abe learned the lesson of living in the world. The long-term professional experience of following Jintaro as a secretary also made him pay more attention to the cultivation of human feelings to achieve the essence of politics, and under the premise of not changing his original intentions, he tried to have a good relationship with the surrounding areas as much as possible to help him succeed.
At the level of core interpersonal relationships, Abe shows a clear "small group" color, helping each other with relatives and friends. On some issues, Abe can still listen to advice, which is very different from Koizumi, who insists on visiting the Yasukuni Shrine every year. Of course, the premise of "listening to persuasion" is that he does not think that he conflicts with his main goal. After Abe became prime minister, especially in his first term, many old friends entered the government and even entered the cabinet to pay respects. As a result, Abe's cabinet has also been jokingly referred to as the "Cabinet of Friends."
(6) Face" and "Lizi"
Abe's logic is to want both "face" and "riko". When "face" conflicts with "lizi", the latter takes precedence. Especially on major diplomatic occasions, whether it is the "trot" when meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin or the humility of meeting with US President Trump, Abe's trait is vividly reflected. The above scenes are often criticized by the outside world, but this is the appearance of the problem. If Abe is judging weak by this, it would be a big mistake. This has to do with the delicacy that characterizes Japanese interpersonal relationships, but for Abe, to a greater extent, it is a means of achieving goals.
▍Abe's foreign policy preferences
On major national policy issues with "spillover" effects, Abe has both strategically stuck to the "core" and relatively pragmatic in strategy, thus forming his distinctive foreign policy preferences.
(1) Whether to amend the Constitution and in what procedure
In Abe's view, constitutional revision is the goal of achieving Japan's restoration of independence. This was also one of the important reasons why his grandfather, Kishi Nobusuke, prompted the merger of the two major Conservative parties in order to restore Japan to true independence. There are three specific reasons why Abe is committed to resolving this major issue that Kishi has not been able to solve: First, the Constitution was drafted and imposed on Japan in a short period of time by the Commander-in-Chief of the Allied Forces in Japan; Second, from showa to Heisei, from the 20th century to the 21st century, the passage of time, especially the provisions of Article 9 and other provisions, has not kept up with the needs of reality; Third, we must have the initiative of "using our own hands to formulate a constitution that matches the new era."
Regarding constitutional revision, through the analysis of Abe's recent series of speeches, his relevant preferences can be summarized as follows: (1) One of the spirits of the LDP party is to advocate "the formulation of an autonomous constitution". Therefore, as a goal since the founding of the party, the revision of the constitution has always been in the party's campaign program. In this election, Abe for the first time positioned it as one of the pillars and major projects of the campaign platform, and proposed four constitutional amendments; (2) The revision of the Constitution shall not be subject to the restrictions of the schedule set. In May 2017, Abe proposed to aim for 2020 in order to make the discussion more active. The first is that "at the Constitutional Review Conference, all parties came up with a constitutional revision plan and seriously carried out constructive discussions", which is very important; (3) In the future, "we will conduct discussions within the Party on specific draft articles in accordance with the basic ideas in the campaign platform." The summary plan after in-depth discussion within the Liberal Democratic Party was submitted to the Constitutional Review Committee of the National Assembly. Then, discussions in Congress to promote national understanding"; (4) Amendments to the Constitution require the approval of two-thirds of the members of parliament before they can be initiated. The ruling party has already won two-thirds of the seats. "Although we have won two-thirds of the seats in three consecutive general elections, I think we should not stick to the ruling party or the opposition, but should continue to work hard to gain a broad consensus. On this basis, we will continue to strive to gain the understanding of the people. ”
(2) Whether to continue to pay homage to the Yasukuni Shrine
Visiting the Yasukuni Shrine reflects Abe's erroneous view of history. In December 2013, the first anniversary of his second reign, Abe went to the Yasukuni Shrine to pay his respects. Subsequently, he threw out the "Prime Minister's Speech" that had been prepared and listed several reasons to justify his actions: First, the purpose was to express his respect for those who gave their lives for Japan, and at the same time to pray for blessings and eternal peace; Second, report to the "heroic spirit" on the performance of the regime in the past year; Thirdly, there is no intention to hurt the feelings of the people of the injured country; Fourth, we regret that visiting the Yasukuni Shrine has evolved into a political and diplomatic issue.
A wrong view of history leads to wrong action. In connection with Abe's insistence that the "theory of aggression is undecided," the reason why he chose to visit the Yasukuni Shrine shows that he does not psychologically believe that this move is fundamentally wrong. In addition, he once called the term "Class A war criminals" incorrect in itself, essentially a judgement of the winner against the loser. Even if it is inappropriate, it is also Japan's "internal affair", and other countries have no right to interfere. He believes that it is also natural that countries have ways of praying according to their own traditions and cultures.
Junichiro Koizumi's consecutive visits to the shrine, coupled with Abe's visit in 2013, caused great trouble to Sino-Japanese relations. In particular, Abe's visit to the shrine, the protests of China and South Korea and other war victims are self-evident, and the United States has also officially expressed its "regret" and expressed its dissatisfaction with the Japanese side. Even in the current pattern of "Abe is strong," it should be noted that in the process of Japan's diplomatic decision-making, we still attach great importance to the "unification" of public opinion. In the case that public opinion (especially elite public opinion and American public opinion) is unfavorable to him, Abe may make some tactical adjustments.
On this issue, Okazaki Hisahiko explicitly advised Abe. Okazaki believes that Abe's proposal to "get rid of the post-war system" has two major goals: one is a historical issue, and the other is a security issue (which is also closely related to constitutional amendments). These two goals are very important, but we cannot pursue "two rabbits" at the same time, otherwise the pressure at home and abroad will be too great, and the gains will not be worth the losses. Okazaki's suggestion is that you should first sort out the order, seek benefits first, and then seek fame when the benefits are in hand. Combined with the comprehensive judgment of the situation in the past three years, it should be said that Abe still accepted Okazaki's proposal to a certain extent. Therefore, under normal circumstances, it is difficult for Abe as prime minister to go to the official visit. And if Abe chooses not to visit the shrine, it will also have a demonstration effect on future regimes, regardless of who will come to power in the future.
(3) Strategic diplomacy
One is "Diplomacy that Tasks a Panoramic Perspectives of the World Map," which is Abe's more graphic expression of "strategic diplomacy." Since becoming prime minister, he has been engaged in strategic diplomacy overlooking the globe. "I gaze at the globe" "Depicting the earth in my heart". In his view, the so-called "diplomacy from the globe" means that as the basic policy of Japan's diplomacy, it is not only concerned with bilateral relations with neighboring countries, but to look down on the whole world like a globe, and to carry out strategic diplomacy based on basic values such as freedom, democracy, basic human rights, and rule of law.
The second is "Proactive Contribution to Peace." Abe likens "positive pacifism" to Japan's brand new "self-portrait" as a banner that will represent and guide Japan in the future. In a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies on July 9, 2015, he said, "Since I came to power, I have held high the banner of positive pacifism based on international coordinationism." In his speech at the general debate of the 68th session of the United Nations General Assembly, Abe first proposed this "basic idea". "Japan will, as it has always been, no, as the world is increasingly shrouded in tragedy, it will exist as a more peaceful and stable force than ever before," he said. With coordination with the international community as the pillar and the unquestionable achievements and unshakable evaluations of the continent's efforts to contribute to world prosperity and peace as the foundation, we have raised a new banner of positive pacifism. Why pursue "positive pacifism"? Combined with specific cases, the following is a little bit of Abe's thinking logic. Case A: On the scene of a United Nations peacekeeping force. Suppose Japan's Self-Defense Forces fight alongside the armies of another country, A.D. At this time, the X-Army was suddenly attacked. The X Corps sent a request for rescue to Japanese forces stationed nearby. However, Japanese troops were unable to carry out rescue efforts. According to the current Japanese Constitution, it is unconstitutional to rescue the X-Army here. Case B: Take the high seas as an example. Suppose that in the coastal waters of Japan, several U.S. Navy Aegis ships are sailing, assisting each other with Japan's Aegis ships, and are preparing for a possible missile launch. In this case, as these warships and ships overly concentrate their entire forces on missile defense, the defense against attacks from above becomes relatively weak. At this moment, the US Aegis ship was suddenly attacked by aircraft. Even the most powerful Japanese warships and ships could not rescue American warships. Because, once rescue is carried out, it constitutes the exercise of the right of collective self-defense, which is unconstitutional according to the interpretation of the current constitution. To address the "distortion" between reality and the Constitution in Cases A and B, Abe believes that it is necessary to amend the Constitution as a first step to promote the formulation of a new security law. On July 1, 2014, the Cabinet of Ministers of Japan decided to improve the basic policy of the new security law. The "basic idea" of the cabinet decision is the "positive pacifism" emphasized by Abe.
The Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy, an important starting point for "diplomacy over the globe" and "positive pacifism." Recently, with Trump's visit to Japan, this expression has become a hot word to describe Japan's new diplomatic strategy. On November 6, 2017, Abe and Trump confirmed that an order based on "freedom of navigation" and "rule of law" would be established from East Asia to Africa. In fact, as early as August 27, 2016, Abe formally proposed this strategic concept in his speech at the opening ceremony of the sixth African Development Conference. "Crossing the waters of Asia and the Indian Ocean, you will know that connecting Asia and Africa is actually a maritime route," he said. "What gives the world stability and prosperity is the great driving force generated by the combination of these two free and open seas and two continents." "To establish and enrich the pacific and Indian oceans, Asia and Africa, of exchange activities in asia and Africa as places of emphasis on freedom, the rule of law and a market economy that have no connection with force and deterrence." Japan has this responsibility. The origin of this strategy is based on Abe's judgment of the world pattern, which he believes will be followed by an "Indo-Pacific century" led by Japan and the United States. The logic of the concept is to expand Japan's participation in the "long chain" of "East Asia→ South Asia→ the Middle East→ Africa", starting from infrastructure, trade, investment, development, and human resources, making it an important "driving force" of Abenomics. At the same time, the new strategy is also about security. Japan will first explore the establishment of a maritime order by Japan, the United States, Australia and India, and hopes to create a four-nation strategic dialogue to concretize cooperation. In the future, it will also join the United Kingdom and France to build a wider security cooperation mechanism. In addition, the new strategy has the intention of countering China's proposed Belt and Road Initiative.
(4) Perceptions and policy preferences for beauty
Abe has said, "My personal encounter with the United States goes back to my student days in California. He was living at mrs. Catherine Dale Francis' house, and she made Italian food that was "the best in the world." She is cheerful and kind, and is loved by everyone. She has a variety of different types of friends, which surprises Abe. As a result, he felt that the United States was a "great country."
New York is an unforgettable place for Abe. More than 30 years ago, when he first became a company employee, he worked in the New York office. He said, "The exciting years spent with fair and open people still occupy a special place in my heart today. ”
It should be said that studying in the United States and being able to experience American social life firsthand has had a great impact on Abe. At the same time, Abe often calls himself "America Pass". He believes that in the American diplomatic tradition, the ideals advocated by the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution are mainly manifested in three modes of thinking: First, isolationism; The second is to attach more importance to national interests than ideals and actively participate in the realism of international politics; The third is the ideological model that is based on the idealistic and evangelical mission to promote the concept of the US Constitution to the whole world. In different eras, these three models have influenced U.S. foreign policy in different ways and with different powers, but they have always existed. Based on this logic, he may not think that the Trump regime is a very special regime in American history.
In Abe's upbringing and political career, he was deeply imprinted by the Japan-U.S. alliance, especially the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, on which it was based. At the same time, when his father was foreign minister, he attached the most importance to Japan-U.S. relations. Therefore, based on his family tradition, Abe is confident in doing a good job in Japan-U.S. relations. After the success of Trump's campaign, Abe quickly launched a relationship with the United States, began to comprehensively collect various information about Trump, and went to the United States to meet with Trump. This example also shows the flexibility and changeability of the Abe cabinet. Abe believes that in order to make the vast sea from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean a peaceful sea of freedom and rule of law, it is necessary to strengthen the Japan-US alliance. As a means, Japan needs to strengthen the security legal system to significantly improve its "seamless" response capabilities. In this way, the cooperative relationship between the Self-Defense Forces and the US military will be further strengthened, and the Japan-US alliance will be consolidated. Another means is a better cooperation mechanism, which is the "new guideline for Japan-U.S. defense cooperation." He considered it a historic document to be prepared for a more solid peace.
Abe's policy preference has also been reflected to a certain extent on the issue of the Diaoyu Islands. In February 2016, think tanks with official backgrounds in Japan and the United States jointly issued a report saying that China's toughness and belligerence on territorial sovereignty issues will continue unabated by 2030, and that the common issue between Japan and the United States is the China issue, and it is necessary to strengthen deterrence and response capabilities to China. At the practical level, in 2015, Japan and the United States revised the "Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation" after a gap of 18 years, confirming that "the Diaoyu Islands are the domain of Japan's administration", "within the scope of The Commitments of Article 5 of the Japan-US Security Treaty", and "oppose any unilateral act that harms Japan's administration of the Diaoyu Islands". Japan's "Defense White Paper" revealed that in the future, Japan and the United States will jointly carry out exercise training, intelligence gathering, vigilance surveillance and reconnaissance operations, strengthen cooperation between the two sides in the waters around the Diaoyu Islands, and enhance the alliance's response capabilities.
With the declassification of diplomatic archives, the negotiation process when Kishi Nobusuke revised the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty in 1960 has gradually become clear. Abe believes that it was those weak efforts that transformed the U.S. military in Japan from an "occupying force" to an "allied army." This process can be called Japan's efforts to gain independence, but Japan also needs the United States to exist as an ally, that is, to use the United States "strategically", because Japan is not yet able to rely on its own strength to ensure security. In addition, Japan was the first and most beneficial of the post-war economic system that was cultivated by the United States to open its markets and seek freedom in the world economy. Abe said that this dependence on the United States has not changed so far. His logic is that to make the greatest self-effort to defend the security of his country, he needs to have the spirit of "defending his own country and defending himself". But if the regional balance under nuclear containment is considered, or the stability of the Far East, there is still a need to maintain an alliance with the United States. If the United States' influence in the international community, economic strength, and the most powerful military capabilities are taken into account, then the Japan-U.S. alliance is the best choice. While there are also those who argue that they cannot fully listen to the United States, Japan should put forward more of its own ideas. But Abe believes that actually raising the two-way obligations of the Japan-U.S. alliance, including dealing with the base issue, would significantly increase Japan's voice.
(5) China policy preferences
It should be said that in recent years, the Abe regime's China policy has undergone certain changes, and its trajectory of change has a short-term upward trend, but it is not allowed to be blindly optimistic.
Abe believes that the so-called strategic reciprocal relations, in the past, Sino-Japanese relations were "friendly first", that is, "friendship for the sake of friendship", which harmed Japan's national interests. Friendship is only a means to achieve the goal of national interests, and "friendship first" is to means of purpose, so that the cart before the horse is reversed. A truly strategically reciprocal relationship is one in which both countries should pursue their own national interests.
Before and after the first time he came to power, Abe believed that since the reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained rapid growth for a long time. Therefore, it can be said that the reform and opening up policy has achieved very complete success. Abe pointed out that some people have proposed that China's economic development is a threat to the Japanese economy. He believes that Koizumi's view is more representative: China's economic development is not a threat to Japan, but an opportunity. He even believes that, in fact, the recovery of the Japanese economy depends to a large extent on the development of the Chinese economy.
In view of the complementarity of Sino-Japanese relations, especially economic relations are inseparable. In order not to undermine this complementarity, it is necessary to commit ourselves to solving political problems. In this regard, Abe's "prescription" is "separation of politics and economy." He stressed that economic cooperation should not be undermined by political problems or the use of economic instruments for political ends. The economic interests of each other should be valued and respected. If this principle can be upheld together, the deterioration of relations between the two countries can be stopped or suppressed. Abe believes that in order to control the problems between the two sides, it is most important for the heads of state to have a direct dialogue.
Under the principle of separation of politics and economy, Abe's preference for China policy is reflected in two contradictory sides: contact and hedging, seeking contact economically, and hedging in security, which not only shows a strong will and corresponding ability to oppose China's use of strength to change the status quo and order, but also claims that strategic reciprocal relations are the interests of the two countries, so the two sides need to control the sea and air crisis and strengthen relevant dialogue and cooperation. Also on the issue of the Diaoyu Dao, Japan attaches importance to the game against China and exerts influence. Japan continues to exaggerate the so-called "threatening nature" of China's military development and maritime activities, and regards the subjective argument that "China has changed the status quo with strength" as the "legitimacy basis" for its strategic adjustment of fishing. In fact, its purpose is not simply to prevent the so-called "China threat", but to ensure a strategic posture favorable to Japan by seeking tactical superiority in fishing.
(6) Policy preferences toward the DPRK
The North Korean issue is one of the focuses of Abe's diplomacy. Without the North Korean factor, Abe's hard-line side would not have been reported by the media to make the people feel that he has "leadership."
In fact, as early as 1993, after being elected to the House of Representatives, Abe said that he would do his best to solve the abduction problem. During Koizumi's reign, Abe pushed for the decision of the state to not allow five "kidnapping victims" to return to North Korea, a move that was well received by most public opinion in the country, believing that Abe had finally given Japanese diplomacy initiative. In this House of Representatives election, Abe's most important focus is also the North Korean issue. He has repeatedly said that Japan is now facing "national difficulties."
Next, will we continue to pressure North Korea, or will we turn to dialogue? Abe's basic logic is: (1) Although north Korea's future actions cannot be asserted, japan should continue to strongly demand that it strictly abide by UN Security Council resolutions and refrain from committing any provocative acts no matter what; (2) 20 years of history have proved that dialogue with North Korea for the sake of dialogue is meaningless. Japan must make future judgments based on the lessons learned from its past diplomacy with the DPRK; (3) North Korea must be required to abandon all nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs in a complete, verifiable, and irreversible manner. To this end, it is necessary to join hands with the international community and exert maximum pressure on it by all means, until the DPRK side makes a request for a change in policy and a desire for dialogue.
▍ Tokyo Tower with "Lord of the Rings"
In his book " To a Beautiful Motherland , Abe writes , " If Tokyo Tower is a symbol of postwar revival and material abundance , the illusory ring is a symbol of value that money can't buy." ”
After the war, devastated Japan ushered in a re-transformation of its national strategy since the Meiji Restoration, breaking away from the shackles of "militarism" and opening its arms to "embrace defeat." Since then, Japan has focused on the development of the national economy for a long time and realized the "Japanese miracle" from the trough to the revival. The "Yoshida Line" (or "Yoshida Doctrine") advocated by Shigeru Yoshida when he was Prime Minister of Japan with the three core principles of "economic center", "light armaments", and "one-sidedness toward the United States" advocated by Shigeru Yoshida as "Tokyo Tower". The pioneer of the "anti-Yoshida" is undoubtedly Kishi Nobusuke. The main goal of its pursuit, in the name of self-reliance, has a strong "retro" component. Kishi is suspected of being a Class-A war criminal, and he does not in essence repent of the war of aggression. On the contrary, under the erroneous view of history, Kishi was anxious to get rid of the pattern of defeat and re-strengthen Japan through constitutional revision and strengthening the army, while not forgetting to arouse the will of the Japanese people as a great power. The shore route, to a certain extent, can be regarded as the "lord of the ring" written by the British writer Tolkien, which is both breathtaking and dangerous.
Shigeru Yoshida and Nobusuke Kishi represent the two major forces within the Liberal Democratic Party, the former known as the "conservative stream" and the latter as the "conservative side stream". If summed up in one sentence, the former is a "prosperous line", while the latter represents a "self-reliance line". These two routes are clearly distinguished, but they are not completely incompatible. The key issue is the conditions for implementation. Shigeru Yoshida, a pro-American realist, and Nobusuke Kishi, a pro-American nationalist, do not differ substantially in the fundamental goal of how to strengthen Japan, but differ in the way in which they are achieved and in judging the situation.
The new round of strategic transformation that Japan is currently undergoing began in the mid-1980s during the reign of Yasuhiro Sone. Japan began to strive to become a great power that "deserves both in name and in name only." As the current prime minister, Abe is working on the Abe Line. In the view of the adherents of the "Abe Line", the conclusion of the San Francisco Peace Treaty only restored Japan's formal national sovereignty, but the structure of Japan after the war, the Constitution is self-evident, and even the Basic Law on Education, which is the foundation of the education policy, was formulated during the US occupation. The original intention of the United States was to tie japan's hands and feet and prevent it from making a comeback and becoming a great power. Therefore, Japan's national framework must be built from scratch with the hands of the people themselves, and only in this way can true independence be achieved. In the 70 years after the war, the LDP, as the most dominant ruling party, achieved its first goal of reviving the economy through rapid growth. The realization of the goal of national self-reliance has been delayed.
To this end, Abe proposed "diplomacy overlooking the globe" and "active pacifism" and committed to strategic diplomacy. In order to reconstruct the security system, Japan has set up a national security conference, successively introduced the "three arrows of security", and formulated the "Law on the Protection of Specific Secrets". In addition, Japan has also adjusted the "Three Principles for Arms Exports" to the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" and announced the lifting of the ban on the right to collective self-defense. The main political goal was to amend the Constitution of Japan, which had been enacted during the occupation period. The core goal of this new strategic layout is to get rid of the "post-war system" and eventually achieve a major country with "comprehensive normalization" of economy, diplomacy, and even military. In terms of concrete implementation, Japan attaches great importance to "correcting deviations" in the field of diplomacy and security. Its specific objectives can be divided into three aspects: strengthening proactive diplomacy, ensuring Japan's own security capacity building, and continuing to strengthen the Japan-US alliance. Japan's strategic intention has been relatively clear, that is, to actively seek its own rise through strategic use of the United States, to enhance its position in the Japan-US alliance, and then to compete for dominance in East Asia.
After the war, Japan's evolution from the "Yoshida Doctrine" to the "Abe Line" can be expressed in the following figure:
Among them, the "Yoshida doctrine" as a "conservative stream" can be represented by a thicker line on the left, while the "shore doctrine" as a "conservative side stream" can be represented by a thinner line on the right. The "Abe Route", which is also based on the re-decomposition and integration of the two lines of "prosperity" and "self-reliance", is a new national strategic guide, and its goal is to lead to a new "maritime country". This new national strategic form has the following characteristics: First, actively respond to "shocks" from the outside world. Abe's policy logic is that the international environment facing Japan is undergoing drastic changes, characterized by the relative decline of the United States, the strong rise of China, and the prominence of the North Korean nuclear issue, and what makes it even more unacceptable is that Japan is facing a trend of "peaceful decline". In the view of Japan's strategicists, the above factors are both a serious challenge and a rare opportunity for building a new "maritime nation" strategy. Japan wants to get rid of the illusionism of the 20th century and build a new national strategy with the realism of the 21st century; Second, based on the above thinking, Japan should follow the new line of great powers. Unlike the "prosperity line" that japan's Liberal Democratic Party regime has long followed since the end of the war, which has long been based on the "Yoshida Doctrine," the new "maritime state" strategic concept originated during the Nakasone administration and coincided with the brewing of Japan's "ordinary state" strategy. However, due to the limitations of the internal and external situation, a complete system of "strategic → mechanism → action" has not yet been formed. Now, the baton of history has been handed over to Abe. Especially during the second Abe administration, the grand strategy took shape and began to carry out interlocking "three-dimensional" operations; Third, it is based on the "New Right," which is the mainstream trend of thought in Japanese political circles. In terms of achieving the goal of a great power, the "new right" constitutes the core value concept of Japan after the "revival". The "new right" as a core value concept and the "great power" as a national strategic goal are actually a superficial relationship.
In the post-Cold War era, facing changes in the international order and profound transformation of national strategies, Japan is exploring a new diplomatic "subjectivity" with full force.
In his December 1962 speech, former U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson was confused about British diplomacy, and used a sarcastic tone to say that Britain had lost its empire and had not yet been able to find a new role for itself. After the Cold War, Japan was also considered to have lost its subjectivity in the international community.
Postwar Japanese diplomacy was carried out under the guidance of the above-mentioned "Yoshida Doctrine." In fact, as early as kishi's administration, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs proposed in the general section of "Recent Developments in Mainland Diplomacy" that "taking the United Nations as the center," "coordinating with liberal countries," and "adhering to the position of being a member of Asia" should be regarded as Japan's "three principles for diplomatic activities." From the perspective of the vertical axis of history, the "Three Principles" part inherits the three major genealogies of "internationalism", "Asianism" and "cooperation with Britain and the United States" in pre-war diplomacy. Judging from the decision-making process, this is also the intention of the three main forces under the "bureaucratic leadership" of the International Law Bureau of the Foreign Affairs Province, the North American Bureau, and the Asia-Pacific Bureau. Under the "Three Principles of Diplomacy," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has established three major issues of Japanese diplomacy, namely, "good-neighborly friendship with Asian countries," "economic diplomacy," and "adjustment of relations with the United States." Based on the reflection on pre-war diplomacy, Japan tried to establish the coordinates of post-war diplomacy by proposing the "Three Principles of Diplomacy.". However, there is an insurmountable gap between the concept of the "three principles of diplomacy" and the reality, and Japan's diplomacy has gradually degenerated into a diplomatic "one principle," that is, a thorough pro-American line.
During the Cold War, Shintaro Abe, as foreign minister, advocated "pioneering diplomacy." Mr. Abe also used his father's legacy as one of the "driving forces" behind diplomatic change. After the change of power from the Democratic Party to the Liberal Democratic Party, the top priority of Japanese diplomacy was determined to surpass the "diplomatic defeat." In Abe's view, the three years in power of the Democratic Party of China were three years of "diplomatic defeat." He believes that the reason why the Democratic Party has "failed" diplomatically is mainly because it has planted a heel in Japan-US relations and Sino-Japanese relations. In terms of relations with the United States, it is a big taboo to equate the Japan-US alliance with Asian diplomacy. On relations with China, especially on the issue of the Diaoyu Islands. Exhausted. To transcend the "diplomatic defeat," it is necessary to build a new "three pillars" of Japanese diplomacy, namely, to strengthen the Japan-US alliance, strengthen relations with neighboring countries, and promote economic diplomacy.
In line with these changes in the strategic level, the "power situation" under Abe has also been reconstructed. People have character, and so does the regime. Abe's personality is an important shaping factor in his foreign policy preferences. But what should not be overlooked is that the power situation Abe faces often determines whether his foreign policy preferences can be realized, how they can be realized, and the limits of their foreign policy preferences.
After the election, the Liberal Democratic Party regime under Abe's leadership is still in a clear and strong position, which can be described as "Abe is strong". The so-called "Abe Kazuhito" has three meanings: First, compared with the Komeito Party and the opposition parties, the LDP president is "superior"; Second, the government is "superior" to the LDP; Third, the Prime Minister's official residence is "superior" to that of the provincial offices within the government.
The immediate consequence of "Abe's strong" is to lead to further "centralization" of the policy decision process. Among them, the role of politicians and bureaucrats around the prime minister and the prime minister has increased. This means that in the relatively stable "power situation", Abe's personal factors are more prominent, and the influence of his personality on policy is also increased.
Since coming to power for the second time, the Abe administration has actively promoted "official residence dominance" and implemented economic, diplomatic, and security policy changes by powerful means. The Prime Minister's office has significantly enhanced its ability to control the provinces and offices, and it has fully dominated major political decisions.
Abe will see the years from Japan's defeat to its return to formal independence as the "source of all evils" that bind Japan. Whether it is the revision of the Constitution, the strengthening of the army, or even the attitude towards the war of aggression, it is related to the Tokyo Trial and the transformation of Japan by the United States during the occupied period. If we want to "get rid of defeat", we must break the shackles of the above factors one by one, "wipe away the residue of war and occupation, and prepare a white and flawless canvas for the new generation, so that they can freely exert the vivid colors that represent themselves." ”
After a clear strategic goal setting, the Abe regime wanted to achieve both economic development (the "prosperity line") and achievements in diplomacy, especially in the field of security, with the intention of achieving Greater independence for Japan. The basic model is to promote security with economy, that is, economic development is to improve security capabilities more effectively. After the Cold War, the balance between economics and security was tilted in favor of the latter. In the Abe era, the strategic focus that Japan focused on practicing was undoubtedly security. At present, with Abe's long reign, his grand strategy of focusing on diplomatic and security issues has been gradually implemented, and Japan has promoted the transformation from "passive pacifism" to "positive pacifism". In the next phase, Abe is taking a new step, planning to change the pacifist constitution developed by the United States, especially Article IX, in order to finally get rid of the shackles of the "post-war system".
In the specific implementation of the "Abe Line", drawing lessons from the failure of the first administration, the current Abe cabinet is familiar with target management, and its ability to grasp the sense of rhythm has been significantly enhanced, paying attention to the flexible use of "throttle" and "brake", and can decisively accelerate and slow down. In addition, do not stretch the battle line too long, focus on the goal, see the good and close, lock in the results. At the same time, in the "power situation" of "Abe is strong", Abe himself has both ideology and pragmatism, but when the two conflict, pragmatic considerations prevail in an attempt to open a "window of opportunity". Coupled with the well-mastered manipulation of public opinion, its ability to create topics has also been significantly enhanced.
At present, under the "Abe line", the new strategic puzzle is about to be completed, and the spirit of "pacifism" as part of the current constitution is facing serious challenges.
Under the domination of the "New Right" in the political circles and the overall atmosphere of increasingly conservative Japanese society, the pattern of "Abe is strong" will still be "normalized" for a certain period of time. Against this background, Abe said, "The most important thing is the implementation, implementation, and re-implementation of the policy." Let us face up to the difficulties facing the mainland and jointly create the future of Japan. ”
However, the "Abe Line" that Japan is practicing is ambitious but at the same time naturally "vulnerable." Japan's overall national strength is already in a relative downward trend. This is also what the "new right" forces represented by Abe do not want to see and are eager to change. Therefore, we will strive to reverse the decline through the hard target of revitalizing the Japanese economy in order to strengthen the military and exert greater capabilities in the international arena. At the same time, Japan has made the impact of China's rise on the world system the biggest destabilizing factor, and in the face of the relative decline of the United States, the possibility of ignoring or even ignoring Japan, especially as the North Korean nuclear issue intensifies, Japan is bound to make a larger and more autonomous choice in security. At present, Japan has gradually come to the forefront, and the "theory of strengthening the armed forces" and even the "theory of supporting nuclear weapons" that are increasingly widely discussed in The country are representative examples.
Most people who take politics as their profession want to achieve something in their lifetime, and even have a history behind them. As the prime minister who has gradually created the "myth" of Japanese politics through his long reign, his commitment to becoming a more "great leader" has become one of the core driving forces of Abe's administration. Where will Abe lead Japan? How will future generations evaluate it? Perhaps, this will be finally judged by history.
In short, Abe has both a tough side and a pragmatic side. Through his long reign, he is leading Japan to "get rid of defeat" and build a new Japan. In this historical period, the international community should remain vigilant. After the Meiji Restoration, although the idea and proposition of "external coordination" played a role to a certain extent, with the development of militarist forces, Japan finally embarked on the road of no return for foreign aggression and expansion. This "lesson from the past" is enough to make people think deeply. Regarding Japan's eventual defeat in the War of Aggression against China and the Pacific War, Kishi nobusuke and Abe were considered to have a "ressentiment" in their hearts. This underlying cognition, buried deep in the heart, deserves attention and study. While being wary of Japan, we should pay more attention to Japan, even when Japan is "sinking." Looking at the world map, Japan is larger and more populous than Britain. More importantly, since the Meiji Restoration, Japan's will to become a great power has not been extinguished, and even in the period when the "Yoshida Doctrine" was effectively implemented, in Shigeru Yoshida's view, it was natural for Japan to strengthen its military when its economic strength was strong. Today's world and China are facing a prime minister like Abe, who has both the "ambitions" of a big country and a unique personality and has been in power for a long time, and instead of "joking" and "labeling", it is better to face it squarely and conduct a comprehensive study of himself and his era. On this basis, a more targeted response is proposed.
At present, Sino-Japanese relations are at a historical juncture of climbing over steep hills and transforming and developing, and they are showing a good trend in the short term. This situation has not come easily and should be cherished. China and Japan should not only face up to history, but also face the future. It is necessary to abide by principles and accumulate mutual trust. Through continuous strengthening of cooperation, mutual benefit and win-win results will be achieved. In the face of this profound strategic and institutional transformation that is taking place in Japan, what kind of spirit should be upheld in contemporary Japanese political and diplomatic research? We must maintain a keen vigilance against human nature in politics, its essence, and the dangers that accompany political power, and even more we must conduct in-depth exploration of international forces, systems, norms, and value principles that prevent and contain "evil." Only in this way, fundamentally answering the above questions may be a historical mission worthy of our conscious understanding and must be undertaken.
The article was originally published in The Diplomatic Review, No. 6, 2017, originally titled "Tao Obscure 'Dove': Abe Shinzo's Personality Traits and Foreign Policy Preferences", transferred from the Eurasian Systems Science Research Society. Space limitations, the content has been edited and deleted, welcome to share individually, media reprint please contact the copyright owner.
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