What does the "triple" La Niña phenomenon mean and how rare is it?
In Spanish, the original meaning of the word El Niño is "little boy", and Lanina means "little girl", many northern agricultural producers know that whether it is El Niño phenomenon or La Niña phenomenon, these two as long as they appear, it will not be a good thing, will have a great impact on agricultural production.
Moreover, these two phenomena often have a law of alternating, but la Niña phenomenon occurs relatively less often. For example, the 1998 flood on the mainland was not only caused by the ecological deterioration of the Yangtze River Basin, but also the emergence of El Niño and La Niña.
Since 2000, the La Niña phenomenon has occurred in the northern hemisphere a total of 6 times, of which 5 years have led to a large increase in the price of some agricultural products.
The "triple" La Niña phenomenon is even rarer, to put it simply, la Niña has occurred for three consecutive years, and since scientists have had this observation ability, it has happened 3 times in history. For example, in the history of 1973 to 1976, 1983 to 1986, and 1998 to 2001, there has been the "triple" La Niña phenomenon mentioned here.
Rare "triple" La Niña phenomenon possible? Floods and droughts are more related to it!
Yes, meteorologists did publish predictions for La Niña: the current La Niña phenomenon began in 2020, and although its intensity was mild or moderate for most of the time, the situation in 2020 was deteriorating, and observations showed that the cold current over the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean once reached its rarest since 1950.
The World Meteorological Organization predicts that the probability of this rare La Niña phenomenon lasting September is 50% to 60%, while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts that the current round of La Niña is expected to have a 51% probability and is likely to last until early 2023.
In the face of such possible climatic phenomena, many people may wonder how it is difficult to predict accurately and give an affirmative conclusion now that human beings have gone to heaven and earth. This thing, researchers have no way, like the La Niña phenomenon in the prediction can only be expressed in probability, after all, only until September, you know where the wind will go, scientists are not living gods, their predictions still have to be based on the actual situation monitored to speculate.
Including the National Weather Service, they have also collected a lot of data on El Niño and La Niña, knowing that once a La Niña event occurs, the hurricane season in North America may be more active than in previous years, like some island countries in the Pacific Ocean are prone to major floods, and the west coast of North America is prone to rare droughts. However, in the current situation, the National Climate Monitoring Center of the United States can only predict through analysis that the probability of La Niña phenomenon occurring for three consecutive years is about 52%.
The La Niña incident is still ongoing, how much impact will it have on the mainland? China Meteorological Administration: Agricultural producers should pay attention to the drought in the south and the flood in the north
As mentioned earlier, the La Niña event is unfavorable to agricultural production, so since meteorologists have indicated that a particularly rare "triple" La Niña climate event may occur, then of course everyone is very concerned about whether it will affect the mainland once it occurs, especially how to deal with agricultural production, and to what extent it has developed so far!
For these questions, experts from the China Meteorological Administration have also answered them, which are probably the following key points:
First of all, this round of La Niña is indeed still going on, but a while ago it was a slow decay pattern, and it is expected that during the mid-summer period, the cold water of the equatorial Middle East Pacific Ocean will also decay briefly, so it has not attracted much attention before, and it will maintain a la Niña or neutral cold state until the end of August.
The reason why everyone is worried now is because researchers predict that by the time of autumn and winter, cold water may develop and strengthen again, and the possibility of this becoming stronger is not small.
Secondly, it is difficult to say how much the impact of the "triple" La Niña phenomenon will have on the mainland if it really occurs, and relevant experts say that La Niña and El Niño are different, the situation is more complicated, and it is not completely the opposite of the El Niño event on the mainland.
However, judging from the previous years in which la Niña occurred, most of the following summer showed a state of heavy rain in the north of the continent, but the specific northern region had more rain, greater intensity, and greater uncertainty about where the precipitation center was.
In addition, the researchers also analyzed the "triple" La Niña phenomenon that has occurred before, and the summer rain is different, in the end, it is because of the intensity of the La Niña event, the development trend, the central location of cold TST, and other factors, which make the possible impact of the La Niña event on the mainland more complicated.
Moreover, as mentioned earlier, the La Niña phenomenon is not as common as the El Niño phenomenon, and the sample volume collected on the mainland is relatively small, not to mention the situation that the La Niña event has occurred for several consecutive years, so the relevant experts need to do more research in this regard.
For many agricultural producers: How to deal with the possibility of El Niño? On the one hand, the north should be vigilant against the regional rainstorm process, and the south should pay attention to the possible drought situation, whether it is too much precipitation caused by flooding, or drought for too long crops are difficult to grow, it is easy to lead to crop yield reduction, so everyone should do a good job in advance to deal with the adverse effects of the La Niña phenomenon.