Per reporter: Wang Jing Per editor: Dong Xingsheng
A few days ago, it was reported that the quotations of MCU manufacturers such as STMicroelectronics (STM, with a stock price of $28.86 billion and a market value of $26.06 billion), Infineon, and Texas Instruments (txn, with a stock price of $144.89 and a market value of $133.5 billion) have fallen sharply. The unit price of RuyiFamicroelectronics' general-purpose MCU has been lowered from 70 yuan / one in March to the current 32 yuan / one.
Since entering the second quarter of 2022, the global COVID-19 epidemic has been repeated and the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine is still tense, resulting in weak global chip consumer demand and high inflation. Chips such as MCUs (microcontrol units), PMICs (power management chips), CIS (contact image sensors), and driver ICs, which were once in short supply, began to suffer from a destocking crisis.
According to the spot market report data of Quiksol, a hybrid distributor of electronic components, in June, the overall market demand is still relatively cold, and Tl (Texas Instruments, the world's leading semiconductor company) is in a structural shortage stage, with less demand and more inventory, and it is expected to become the market norm in the second half of the year. Conventional materials are not out of stock, and will return to the state of attracting customers by price; Only a few non-generic or extremely scarce material prices remained firm.
Affected by the increase in chip supply chain inventory and the decline in terminal demand, the two-year-long "chip shortage" has been alleviated. But what is worrying is that next, will the semiconductor industry enter a "flood period"?
Image source: Visual China - VCG111331272864
A number of chips show signs of price decline
Recently, there has been a lot of news about the decline in chip prices.
According to Sigmaintell survey data, it is expected that by the third quarter, the price of the 5P/50M image sensor (CIS) industry will be about 5.1 US dollars / one, down about 14% year-on-year; The industry price of FHD TDDI mobile phone driver chips is about 2.7 US dollars / one, down about 9% year-on-year.
In addition to image sensors, other chips have also experienced price declines. A few days ago, CINNO Research data showed that in the second quarter of 2022, the price of DDIC for global display panel driver chips fell by about 2% to 8%, and the price decline in the third quarter may continue to expand. "In the first quarter, the average inventory turnover days of domestic consumer IC design companies increased to 201 days, IC design manufacturers faced pressure to cut orders, DDIC was negatively affected, and the peak season in the third quarter may not be prosperous."
CINNO Research believes that in 2022, global driver chip orders or will appear as a whole decline, the second half of the DDIC price is facing greater price reduction pressure, the third quarter of various applications DDIC price decline is expected to be 4% to 15%.
The decline is even greater is the PMIC chip, which is also one of the more serious categories of shortages in the previous global core shortage tide, which is regarded as the "heart" of the power supply of electronic devices, responsible for the control functions of power conversion, distribution, detection and other control functions required by electronic devices, and is also one of the largest market segments of analog chips. However, affected by market demand, such chips have experienced large price fluctuations this year.
According to the statistics of the electronic industry media core, the price of this round of standard consumer analog chips fell by a large margin, and many fell to the normal price. For example, TI's TPS61021ADSGR, which rose to a maximum price of 45 yuan / one in May last year, began to reduce prices, and by May this year, it has returned to the normal price at the beginning of last year.
The reason is that Zeng Guanwei, an analyst at TrendForce Jibang Consulting, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter through WeChat that the supply chain, from IC design operators to terminal brand operators, has carried out inventory corrections; At the same time, the previous spot merchants and dealers accumulated a large amount of inventory, due to the change of market conditions, began to bargain and sell, and the overall consumer demand quickly weakened.
According to data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in May, the domestic mobile phone market shipped 20.805 million units, down 9.4% year-on-year; From January to May, the domestic mobile phone market shipments totaled 108 million units, down 27.1% year-on-year. Among them, 5G mobile phone shipments fell by 20.2% year-on-year.
The decline in mobile phone sales is not limited to China, in fact, the global consumer electronics industry is also showing pressure. According to counterpoint Research's latest report, in May 2022, the global mobile phone market sales fell by 4% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year to 96 million units. It is worth noting that this is the second time in 8 years that global monthly smartphone sales have fallen below 100 million units.
"Recently, smart phones have not been strongly innovative in function, and the average replacement cycle of consumers has been extended to 2 to 3 years, and it is difficult for manufacturers to launch new brands to trigger consumers' enthusiasm for purchase." An institutional analyst told reporters online. He believes that the recent chip price trend is indeed closely related to the demand side.
On the one hand, the demand is weak, and on the other hand, the new fabs in the market in recent years will be gradually put into operation in 2022, and the supply of chip production capacity will be further increased. Wanlian Securities believes that if the disruptive innovation and penetration of smart phones in the future are still less than expected, it may have a non-positive impact on its shipments, which in turn will have an impact on the demand for related chips.
What is more worrying is that in the view of Chen Jun, deputy general manager and chief analyst of Sigmaintell, the downturn in chip prices will not be a short-term phenomenon. "In the medium and long term, the demand for semiconductor chips will be affected by positive factors such as the Internet of Things and the Internet of Vehicles to drive up demand, but in the short term, it will be affected by fluctuations and uncertainties in the peripheral environment, and the current upstream expansion of semiconductors and the contraction of downstream demand have made semiconductor supply and demand change, and it is expected that chip price adjustment will continue to mid-2023."
Brady Wang, deputy director of Counterpoint Research, shares the same opinion. He believes that the chip price downturn will last for at least a year or two. Brady Wang further analyzed the reporter through WeChat: "Semiconductors cover too many areas, subdivision, for mobile phones / PCs there will be an oversupply, but industry and cars currently seem to have a shortage, because cars need a long production cycle, production companies can not have too long conversion." ”
Demand for new energy vehicles, industrial control and other industries is still strong
Although the price of a variety of chips applied to consumer electronics has declined, a positive phenomenon is that the acceleration of smart car penetration may boost the on-board use of related chips to a certain extent.
Image source: Visual China - VCG111342140262
MCU (micro-control unit), also known as single-chip microcomputer or single-chip microcomputer, is to make the frequency and specifications of the central processor to be appropriately reduced, and integrate various components on a single chip to form a chip-level computer. MCUs are generally divided into 8-, 16-bit and 32-bit processors, which are widely used in industrial control, medical equipment, remote control, office equipment and household appliances, toys and embedded systems. The downstream of the MCU industry is mainly the application of MCU, focusing on automotive electronics, industrial control, consumer electronics and other fields.
Benefiting from the trend of vehicle electrification and intelligence, the demand for MCUs continues to increase. Since the third quarter of 2020, global MCUs have entered a historically rare state of stock-out, with MCU prices from Manufacturers such as GigaDevice (SH603986, share price 130.57 yuan and market capitalization 87.15 billion yuan) and STMicroelectronics rising 6 to 10 times.
Since the third quarter of 2021, MCU prices have fallen due to the obstruction of shipping and Amazon's seizure of cross-border e-commerce. However, Minsheng Securities said: "According to our monthly price tracking data, the price of MCU channels has stabilized after the Spring Festival (this year), and the prices of some mainstream high-end models have begun to rebound: The prices of GD3 series GD32F103C8T6, M4 series GD32F405RGT6 and other products have risen in March compared with February, and overseas Italian and French STM32F103C8T6, STM32F103VCT6 and other model products have rebounded more strongly, and even hit a record high." ”
Putting aside short-term factors, Minsheng Securities pays more attention to the long-term growth logic of the MCU industry: the demand in market segments such as automobiles and industry is continuing to improve; The international IDM factories choose to give priority to ensuring the needs of overseas customers under the tide of shortage of goods, and the ability to control the channels in the domestic market is not good, and the prices of distributors fluctuate sharply all year round.
Zeng Guanwei pointed out that small and medium-sized Fabless (design companies) have weak bargaining power when headwinds, and the proportion of consumer applications (such as TV and Notebook) is high, and the price of consumer chips does have a downward trend. However, at present, IDM (vertically integrated manufacturing, refers to a semiconductor vertical integration company that is single-handedly handled from design, manufacturing, packaging and testing to the sale of its own brand ICs) industry still has strong bargaining power in high-specification products such as vehicles, industrial control, servers, and Netcom, and can increase prices and distribute sales for a small number of models.
Finally, will the semiconductor industry enter a "flood period" for the outside world? Zeng Guanwei said: "The destocking stage needs to be calculated in units of 3 to 6 quarters, and the process also depends on the needs of various fields. IDM manufacturers have strict capacity control, and the demand for high-specification products is relatively stable. However, in the second half of the year, some plant expansions are completed, and the tightness of supply will be slightly reduced. However, IC designers are deeply affected by the long whip effect, and it is generally a foregone conclusion to reduce orders to wafer generation manufacturers. ”
The analyst of the above institution said: "Semiconductors are in a unique industry cycle, when the market is hot, the upstream increase in investment, new production capacity, is a regular measure, when the market growth slows down, the emergence of excess capacity is also an objective fact." In the current environment, there is a risk of overcapacity at the low end, but high-end production capacity is still in short supply, and all foundries are adjusting their capacity structure. This year's market cooling is inevitable, but for the obvious 'flood period', it is necessary to observe the trend of the international situation and economic environment in the second half of the year. ”
Daily economic news
Daily economic news