Probably no one expected that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict could last for 106 days, even Putin himself may not have expected it.
As the Russian-Ukrainian conflict enters a war of attrition, the attitudes of all parties are undergoing subtle changes. In particular, a war of words has broken out between Hungary and Ukraine, with The Speaker of the Hungarian Parliament and Minister of Economy Siyaldo agreeing that Zelenskiy has mental problems.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy really can't blame Hungary for saying this, how many times Zelenskiy has made inconsistent statements, people can't understand, first look at the latest three important news of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
First news: Zelenskiy, while talking with Putin, said that the impasse was "not an option" and said that it would be necessary to return to the pre-conflict dividing line to negotiate.
Today's Ukraine seems to be "held by the stars" in the West, but in fact, Ukraine is "difficult to support alone". Without Western support, Ukraine could soon collapse.
Zelenskiy's remarks are interesting, saying on Tuesday, "If we are ready to seriously discuss ending this war, I am ready to engage in direct negotiations with President Putin." ”
This attitude is interesting, Zelenskiy has said it several times, but it is not realistic at all. Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to meet directly with Zelenskiy until the basic work is completed, which requires a lot of work.
Zelenskiy also said he "didn't have time" to discuss with Moscow issues unrelated to ending the conflict, including Ukraine's possible membership in NATO.
This statement is even more interesting, before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Zelenskiy had made extreme remarks about joining NATO: joining NATO is the only way to solve the Problem of Donbass. Now because NATO will not accept him, I will not talk about it now. Isn't that a difference in appearance?
In addition, Zelenskiy also said wildly, "Victory must be won on the battlefield", but to achieve victory, it requires the strong support of the West. Because of the support of the West, the Ukrainian army is far inferior to Russia in terms of equipment and has no ability to advance. At the same time, however, the Ukrainian side claimed that the Ukrainian army had made significant progress in the direction of Donbass. So, which sentence is true and which sentence is false?
In addition, Zelenskiy also said that in order to negotiate peace, the Russian army must pull the dividing line before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This is even more amazing, before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine was not instigated by the United States and chose neutrality, how could Russia send troops? Now you want to talk about the possibility of letting others withdraw their troops, and this possibility exists only at the theoretical level.
Judging from Zelenskiy's latest statement on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Zelenskiy is basically a pawn of the United States, and there is no "decision-making power" at all in the direction of the war situation, and whether the Ukrainian side can end the conflict, how to talk about it, and how to take the next step seems to be decided by the Americans.
(1) Ukraine now relies on the strong assistance of Europe and the United States to survive, and the EU's support for Ukraine basically follows the position of the United States, so the influence of the United States on Ukraine is very large. Russia has also seen this and has basically abandoned its illusions about Ukraine. Therefore, the possibility of direct peace talks with Ukraine is very small, and in the end it will be Russia, the European Union, the United States and Ukraine to talk, and it is difficult to say whether Ukraine will blackmail the EU and the United States at that time.
(2) Zelenskiy was still fantasizing about a total repulsion of the Russians, and how likely this possibility was that he knew better than anyone. After all, now that the Russian army controlled Kherson, Zaporizhia, most of Donbass, and Mariupol, the Ukrainian army wanted to retake these territories at a great cost, and the current Ukrainian army did not have the ability to pay these costs. Secondly, the Russian army did not stop the offensive, but also to carry out the next step of the goal, so that the speed of the Russian advance may be accelerated by the decline in resistance of the Ukrainian army in July.
(3), Zelenskiy overestimated the importance of Ukraine to Europe and the United States, a devastated Ukraine has become a "hot potato" for Europe and the United States, now not only NATO will not let Ukraine join, even the European Union will not accept Ukraine, because such a Ukraine in addition to aid, can not bring any benefits to Europe and the United States. In particular, when Ukraine can no longer play the role of attrition of Russia, the United States will kick Ukraine away.
Let's look at the second news: former German Chancellor Angela Merkel will not blame herself and will not apologize.
Merkel said this mainly in response to her opposition to Ukraine's accession to NATO and some of its manifestations in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. To tell the truth, Merkel has contributed to stabilizing Europe and avoiding war, and before there was no Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Minsk agreement signed through the quadripartite talks avoided the escalation of Russian-Ukrainian contradictions to a certain extent.
However, with the intervention of the US forces, the rules set by the four-party talks were disrupted, and after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the role played by the European Union in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was not dominant, and Ukraine wanted to rely more on the United States to complete its own goals.
So what is the current attitude in Germany?
(1) After Scholz came to power, he actually wanted to continue Merkel's attitude toward Russia, but because of the influence of the United States and the "kidnapping" of Lithuania, Poland and other countries within the European Union, Germany passively participated in sanctions against Russia, which made Germany suffer heavy losses and did not get any benefits.
Because Germany is far from satisfying Ukraine's appetite, nor can it satisfy the appetite of the extremely anti-Russian countries within the European Union. Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Germany's influence has actually declined.
(2), Germany began to play its own calculations, want to use this Russian-Ukrainian conflict to increase military spending, the formation of the European Union can be a military system, Germany to increase military spending The United States may turn a blind eye, but want to build a military system parallel to NATO, the United States will definitely find a way to stop, so Germany wants to make itself bigger, but also depends on the United States does not agree.
(3), although Germany participated in the sanctions against Russia, but Germany's sanctions are relatively reserved, especially for Russia's gas sanctions, Germany has a hundred unwilling, don't look at Germany to find a substitute country, nothing more than to do for the Americans to see, Germany if you do not buy Russian gas, will only spend a greater price to import natural gas from other countries, and the stability is not necessarily better than Russia.
Third news: Ukraine says this winter may be the toughest since independence
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy announced that it will suspend the export of coal and natural gas, and now Ukraine's energy supply is still partly dependent on imports, whether it is coal or natural gas, in the field of natural gas Ukraine has bought Russia's second-hand natural gas in recent years, in 2015 Ukraine stopped buying natural gas directly from Russia, but from the EU's transportation pipeline reverse supply, it sounds like it has played with itself and itself.
The winter of 2022 is the best time for Russia to balance the forces of all sides, when both the European Union and Ukraine must compromise on gas supplies, and it is simply unrealistic for Ukraine to buy the United States, unless the United States is willing to give it away for free. As for the EU, if the EU wants stability and development, it is best to weigh the cold of this winter.