To tell the truth, if you can't figure out what decline is, then the "American decline theory" is a false proposition; If we do not understand the fundamental reasons for the strength of the United States, it will be difficult to prevent the United States from continuing to be strong, and it will be impossible to fundamentally weaken the hegemony of the United States.
The "theory of American decline" has two sources, one is that because the hegemonic acts of the United States have been "unpopular" in the world in recent years, there is naturally no shortage of countries in the international community that "hate it to the bone" but are "helpless." Based on strategic contempt for the United States, it has also given birth to the saying that the United States has "declined."
Another source of the "American decline theory" is the "self-blackening" hype of the United States. It is mainly the American media as well as the need for hype in the opposition based on a variety of different purposes. Even the U.S. government uses the "American decline theory" from time to time.
If the Republican Party is on the stage, the Democratic Party of the United States and the pro-Democratic American media will hype the theory of American decline. They will lash out at the republican administration's various inadequacies and shortcomings, and will enumerate in a series of ways in which the United States has fallen behind, or is about to fall behind, the rest of the world. The purpose is simple, that is, for the needs of their own political party to come to power. If the US Democratic Party is on the stage, the Republican Party's operation method is highly similar.
Of course, in the hype of the "theory of decline", in addition to the political needs of the United States, there is no lack of anxiety about the future of the country. It is precisely these "worries" that directly or indirectly promote the policy adjustment of the US government, so that the United States does not have the opportunity to make "irreversible" major decision-making mistakes.
In fact, the U.S. government is also one of the initiators of the "American decline theory." For example, if the U.S. government needs to invest in technology, the U.S. government will openly hype that a certain technology has lagged behind Japan, Germany, and other countries. When the US government believes that it is necessary to increase military spending, the US government will hype up the "two theories", that is, the foreign threat theory and the US military decline theory.
The reason why the ruling party of the United States occasionally participates in the hype of the "American decline theory" has only one purpose, that is, "money". That is, to obtain the approval of fiscal expenditures in both houses of Congress. It can be seen that the US government does not have real financial power. At the very least, this kind of restraint can make the US government dare not spend money "lavishly". That is, the U.S. government must follow the "rules of the game" within the system. Whether or not there is a reason for the strength of the United States is a matter of opinion.
Under the joint hype of the two sources, the "American decline theory" has become more and more hyped, and has almost become the "consensus" of the whole world. However, in the years when the theory of decline in the United States has been very popular, a strange phenomenon has emerged in the international community, that is, on the one hand, the decline of the United States is even about to collapse, and on the other hand, it has more violently accused the United States of relying on its powerful strength to continue to engage in hegemony. Therefore, many people are confused, that is, whether the United States has declined?
To put it bluntly, the United States is only "relative decline", and this "relative" is not based on the "benchmark" of the United States' own strength, but actually coordinates the world. More precisely, relative to individual countries in the world, such as us. It is precisely because our "stand out from the crowd" development rate has "set off" the decline of the United States. In fact, not only has the United States not declined, but its overall strength has increased.
Overall strength usually includes both hard power and soft power. Let's first discuss whether America's hard power has declined. In terms of military strength, the United States now spends about $740 billion a year on military spending, which is not only the highest in the world, but also almost the sum of 2-9 countries in the world. In terms of military deployment, the United States has hundreds of overseas military bases, covering almost all parts of the world.
In terms of weapons and equipment, the United States has the most advanced "Trinity" nuclear strike "carrier" and "tool". The United States has the world's most advanced fifth-generation and stealth-fifth-generation fighters. The United States has established large and advanced defense systems and systems on multiple strategic bases. The US aircraft carrier battle group, both in number and configuration, has reached the level of "one-size-fits-all."
From a practical point of view, in the Gulf War, it took only 72 hours for the United States to drive Iraqi troops out of Kuwait. In the Iraq War, it took only 30 days to defeat the Iraqi army, which was then known as the world's fourth military power, and to fully occupy Iraq. The war in Afghanistan, which has been "ridiculed" by the world, is actually only a strategic mistake, not a purely military defeat.
In terms of horizontal and vertical comparison, the performance of Russia, which is known as the world's second military power, on the battlefield of Ukraine is actually needless to say. From the perspective of weapon performance, the style of play and application under the conditions of modern technology, the gap between the United States and Russia in conventional military strength and actual combat is obvious. To tell the truth, the United States and Russia are no longer in the same "magnitude", but this Russian-Ukrainian conflict has only been confirmed.
Judging from the actual combat effect of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States only provided a small amount of advanced weapons to Ukraine and provided intelligence and communication technical support, which made Russia fight so hard, while the United States "idly walked" out of the matter. This gap in internal strength is actually even more frightening.
So, how did Russia, the successor country of the Soviet Union that was once able to compete head-on with the United States, be opened up by the United States so widely? Two main reasons. The first is science and technology. The second is the economy. And in both respects the United States is still the strongest in the world.
To be sure, the United States still has a huge advantage in the world in terms of the two hard powers of science and technology and the economy. Especially at the level of science and technology, it is not something that other countries can surpass overnight. This is a fact and must be acknowledged. To put it bluntly, at the level of science and technology, whether it is Japan or Germany, or other countries in the world, it is only a certain field or a certain technology that is ahead of the United States in the application, and there is still a long, long way to surpass the United States as a whole.
The United States remains the world's most economically powerful country, with $23 trillion in GDP still accounting for more than 22 percent of the world's GDP, and in recent years, with the exception of 2020, which has been severely affected by the pandemic for a slight decline, other years have remained in a state of growth. Second, the world's third most populous country of more than 300 million people can achieve a per capita GDP of more than $65,000, which shows its economic strength.
Moreover, in terms of the financial system and the level of technological transformation, which can be regarded as hard power or soft power, the United States has the two advantages of the unique "dollar system" and the strongest ability to "transform" science and technology and economic achievements. In particular, the transformation of technology and economic achievements will make the United States strongly resilient in terms of competitiveness.
At the level of soft power, people often equate international status with soft power. In fact, international status is not a quantifiable "object". Moreover, it has the "incomparableness" of stages and a particular event. For example, on the issue of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the United States has supported Israel without asking any questions, and in the United Nations vote on Israel, there have been many 191:2 situations. It would be far-fetched to assume that the international status of the United States has declined on this basis.
In fact, the international status of a country mainly depends on whether it has the right to speak, and the right to speak is not who has the voice, but the "rule" of the international governance system. There are also values and organizational skills in the right to make rules. That is, whether the values you preach and the rules set by that standard can be recognized by most countries.
In the years of Trump's administration, it was generally believed that the international status of the United States had seriously declined and was irreversible. However, after the Democratic government came to power, it realized the seriousness of the problem, so it quickly made adjustments. As for the effect, the world situation after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has actually given the answer. This leads to another conclusion, the so-called "international status", one of the important manifestations of which is whether the alliance system is strong. It now appears that the international status of the United States has not materially declined. Although there may be some changes after the great changes that have not been encountered in a hundred years, it can only be said to "wait and see" at present.
To sum up, the absolute power of the United States has not declined, and if it is "declining", it is only because of our rapid development and international status over the years. The exact positioning is that the United States is only in relative decline.
As for the reason why the United States has always remained strong, the field of public opinion is also divided. Some believe that the reason why the United States is strong is that it has made war wealth, and the U.S. military-industrial complex has supported the U.S. economy; There are also views that the reason why the United States remains strong is the hegemony of the "dollar system", and firmly believe that as long as the dollar system is broken, the United States will inevitably decline irreversibly.
It is undeniable that the reason why the United States has been able to remain strong is related to the advantages of the military-industrial complex and the dollar system, but it is not the main reason. For example, in the case of 2021 data, the United States' foreign arms sales are $138 billion, and Russia's foreign arms sales are $55 billion. The GDP of the United States in 2021 is $23 trillion, and the GDP of Russia is $1.77 trillion. In terms of the total GDP ratio, the contribution of US arms sales to the total GDP is obviously not as high as that of Russia.
From the dollar system, the United States does benefit a lot, but it is not decisive for the strength of the United States. For example, as early as 1894, the total GDP of the United States surpassed the United Kingdom to become the world's first (there was no GDP statistics at that time, only estimates), and until 1913, the United States had a Federal Reserve, which naturally could not talk about the advantage of the dollar.
The Brington Woods system was only established in July 1944 and officially operated after World War II. However, long before World War II, the United States had become the most powerful country in the world, and the process of World War II also proved this. Of course, there are also views that the past is the past, the present is now, the strength of the United States is caused by the advantages of the dollar system, if the dollar system collapses, the United States will definitely decline or even collapse.
In fact, freezing three feet is not a day's cold. While seeing the powerful role of the dollar system in the United States, we should also take into account the "support point" behind the dollar system, that is, the "endorser" of the dollar. Objectively speaking, the "endorsers" of the dollar system include the strong military strength of the United States, the national credibility of the United States, the strong scientific and technological strength of the United States, the ability to convert scientific and technological and economic achievements, and the operation law of the financial system. Therefore, if the forces of the world want to break the dollar system, they must make the "endorsers" of the dollar no longer have an advantage, that is, to surpass these factors.
From the historical law of "prosperity and decline", the United States will eventually decline, but it is not now. Realistically, the United States is the world's largest and relatively most successful immigrant country, although it also has structural problems, such as demographic changes that lead to changes in values and reduced cohesion. However, it also has advantages that other nation-states do not have. For example, talent and labor will not be "disconnected".
With a steady stream of talent around the world, coupled with the environment in which the Mayflower Convention has extended to date, the United States can maximize the assurance that creativity will not dry up. And scientific and technological creativity is the source of a country's competitiveness. It can be seen that maintaining unbroken scientific and technological creativity is the most fundamental reason why the United States has always been strong. Of course, an environment that ensures technological creativity is also essential.