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Gun out of the head bird? After entering a wartime state, Hungary was threatened by Ukraine, and the oil pipeline may have an accident

author:Nine changes in the virtual and the real

Affected by the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the contradictions of European countries have become increasingly prominent, and it can be seen from Hungary's repeated rejection of the draft of EU sanctions against Russia that it is not monolithic internally, and it is difficult for countries to unify their ideas.

In the process, Hungary, which has been out of the blue many times, has been hated by the Ukrainian government.

Rana Zekar, an adviser to Ukraine's energy minister, publicly blamed the Orbán government at an online meeting of the Kiev Security Forum and said that the Druzhba pipeline would "happen something" and the threat was full.

It is not difficult to find that Ukraine's dissatisfaction with Hungary has reached its peak.

Gun out of the head bird? After entering a wartime state, Hungary was threatened by Ukraine, and the oil pipeline may have an accident

It is reported that Hungary mainly relies on the Druzhba oil pipeline to receive oil energy from Russia. The Hungarian government has made it clear that the Druzhba pipeline carries Russian oil, which accounts for 65 percent of the country's total oil consumption, and there is currently no alternative to the supply of the line.

It is worth mentioning that most of the area through which this pipeline passes is within the territory of Ukraine, so the Ukrainian government is fully capable of "disrupting" energy transportation between Russia and Hungary.

That is to say, if Hungary still does not agree to sanctions on Russian oil and continues to prevent the European Union from imposing a sixth round of sanctions on Russia, Ukraine can only force the country to lose its Russian energy supply.

But can Ukraine pressure succeed? In the current situation, the probability is impossible.

Gun out of the head bird? After entering a wartime state, Hungary was threatened by Ukraine, and the oil pipeline may have an accident

First, the EU has already taken action on the matter before.

When Hungary first voted against it, making eu-imposed sanctions against Russia unenforceable, the EU proposed an energy exemption to persuade Hungary to relax, but it was clear that their attempt failed.

Second, Hungary declared a wartime emergency a few days ago.

Orbán said the Russian-Ukrainian conflict had seriously affected Hungary, jeopardizing their energy and financial security, and that they had to enter a state of war emergency in order to better protect the Hungarian people.

Gun out of the head bird? After entering a wartime state, Hungary was threatened by Ukraine, and the oil pipeline may have an accident

This shows that the "spillover effect" of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has spread widely, especially since the european and American countries imposed sanctions on Russia, the "alarm bell" of European countries in energy has not stopped. As a result, Hungary is even less likely to "self-torture" on energy.

In this respect, Ukraine's plan to use energy pipelines to threaten Hungary to change its position on Russia would not only fail, but could push it against itself.

If things really follow this trend, then Ukraine will be "attacked" and their plans to join the EU will be postponed indefinitely.

Gun out of the head bird? After entering a wartime state, Hungary was threatened by Ukraine, and the oil pipeline may have an accident

In fact, the EU has suffered enough on energy sanctions, but because of the pressure exerted by the United States, it cannot really show its reluctance to embargo Russian energy.

So at this time, Hungary is actually the "spokesperson" of the EU, and their statement represents the real idea of the EU.

And "the gun shoots the head bird", Ukraine hopes that western countries can increase the intensity of sanctions against Russia, in this case, the opposing Hungary will inevitably be targeted.

But in fact, in addition to Hungary, other EU countries cannot withstand the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Gun out of the head bird? After entering a wartime state, Hungary was threatened by Ukraine, and the oil pipeline may have an accident

At the EU summit just last week, Italy proposed to revise the draft conclusions of the summit on "aid to Ukraine" and expressed its willingness to assist Russia and Ukraine in peace talks and an early end to war.

This proposal was also supported by Hungary and Cyprus. Obviously, the biggest reason why these countries want the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to be resolved as soon as possible is energy.

As long as the conflict continues, European countries will suffer on energy issues.

Gun out of the head bird? After entering a wartime state, Hungary was threatened by Ukraine, and the oil pipeline may have an accident

However, European Commission President von der Leyen has publicly demonstrated a tough attitude towards Russia and supported Ukraine's continued "resistance". The differences within the EU will directly lead to more obstacles to the implementation of the so-called sixth round of sanctions against Russia.

Coupled with the fact that many EU countries have now bowed to Russia and agreed to the ruble settlement order signed by Putin, it will further prevent the implementation of relevant sanctions.

It is reported that Germany, Italy, Austria and Slovakia have successively opened ruble accounts to facilitate their continued purchase of Russian energy, which is enough to show the importance of Russian energy to European countries.

Gun out of the head bird? After entering a wartime state, Hungary was threatened by Ukraine, and the oil pipeline may have an accident

Didn't the blatant purchase of Russian energy by the above four countries violate EU sanctions? Of course not, because the EU has long provided a "gray space" for the purchase of Russian energy, and naturally will "turn a blind eye" to the decision of these countries to pay in rubles.

Even Von der Leyen said that if the EU does not buy Russian energy, Russia will sell it to other countries at a high price, and then allow Russia to obtain funds to fill the war materiel.

This high-sounding explanation is actually a cover-up for the fact that the EU cannot get rid of its energy dependence on Russia.

The sentence also shows that the real reason why the EU cannot reach a consensus on energy sanctions is not only Hungary's opposition, but also the "silent action" of other member states and the "silent support" of the EU leadership. Ukraine's desire to see a sixth round of EU sanctions is therefore doomed.

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