India and Indonesia have struck again, and the great storm is about to erupt! Black wheat yields are cut off, and millions of people may starve to death? The United Nations has spoken out urgently

After banning wheat exports, India wants to restrict sugar exports?

On Tuesday, Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, revealed that the Indian government plans to limit sugar exports to 10 million tons in the crop year ending September. The person familiar with the matter said the move was aimed at ensuring there was enough inventory before the start of the next sugar season in October.

The person familiar with the matter said the move could be announced in the coming days.

In 2021, India is the world's largest sugar exporter after Brazil, with Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia and Dubai being its biggest customers.

In addition, according to the International Tin Association (ITA), the Indonesian government will review export licenses in June. Specifically, Indonesian regulations require all smelters to source ore from their own mining concession farms – either directly or from contractors. As part of an export license, the smelter must submit a work plan and budget that outlines the mine's production for the current year. The smelter's export quota for that year was also based on this.

Jabin Sufi Anto, secretary general of the Indonesian Tin Exporters Association, said some companies may not be able to meet the requirements, smelters produce more than they should, and their export quotas may be modified or their licenses revoked.

According to Liu Peiyang, an analyst at Zhongyuan Futures, the global tin reserves in 2021 will be about 4.9 million tons, of which Indonesia's tin reserves rank second in the world, with a total reserve of 800,000 tons, accounting for 17% of the world's total, second only to China, which accounts for 23% of the total. Therefore, Indonesia's move will have a certain impact on the global supply side, but the impact on the mainland is weaker: on the one hand, the mainland is the country with the largest tin reserves in the world, on the other hand, the largest source of tin imports on the mainland is Myanmar, which accounts for up to 80% of its imports in 2021; the main import from Indonesia is refined tin, and the import of Indonesian refined tin in 2021 is 3902.6 tons, accounting for about 4% of domestic production in that year. In addition, The Indonesian government's policies are more volatile, for example, this year Indonesia announced that it would stop palm oil exports from April 28, followed by less than a month, and then lifted the export ban on May 23. Therefore, when Indonesia's ban on tin exports will be implemented in the future, and how long it will be enforced, the subsequent impact of these remaining remains to be seen.

Indonesia's export licenses often interfere with the tin industry, which has also happened this year, but the impact on tin exports will not be significant, ITA said. Indonesia's exports have been high in recent months, probably in an effort to catch up on exports before the licence review. It is not expected that the licensing review will have a significant impact on Indonesia's total exports. Indonesia's state-owned producer, Pegasus, has been granted export licenses this year, while other major producers are unlikely to have problems.

The world's largest tin producers fell in the first quarter, tin prices will continue to weaken?

The Peru operation of Minsur, one of the world's largest tin producers, declined production in the first quarter due to smelter maintenance and COVID-19 prevention measures. In the first quarter of 2022, the tin grade of mineral processing materials rose to 2.18%, up from 2.00% last year and 2.06% in the previous quarter. Raw ore grades for San Rafael and B2 also improved, resulting in an increase in the average.

How much will smelter maintenance and COVID-19 prevention measures affect Minseo and other producers around the world?

Liu Peiyang believes that many places in China have been disturbed by the epidemic but the operating rate of mainstream smelters is stable, ensuring that domestic output remains stable. According to SMM data, the domestic refined tin production in April was 15103 tons, a change of -0.61% from March, a year-on-year change of -2.59%, and a year-on-year change of -2.75% in the cumulative output from January to April. In May, the operating rate of domestic smelters was expected to rise under the overall production of refineries and the expectation of individual enterprises to increase production. Overall, the impact of the epidemic and refinery overhauls on domestic refined tin production is generally limited. On the foreign side, the latest data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics shows that the global reported refined tin production from January to March 2022 decreased by 12,000 tons compared with the same period in 2021. However, as factors such as the epidemic weaken, refined tin production is expected to resume growth in 2022, and the International Tin Association expects refined tin production to grow by 15,200 tons to 393,300 tons in 2022.

In terms of the market, domestic and foreign tin futures prices have been falling since March, and this morning, Lennsi ended a two-day streak of gains, falling to the high of more than a week set last Friday. In the domestic market, Shanghai Tin continued its downward trend, closing down more than 2% yesterday at noon, and falling more than 2% again in the night session.

"The weakening of the supply and demand pattern is the main reason for the sharp decline in tin prices in this round, especially the drag on the demand side is more obvious." According to the World Bureau of Metals Statistics, global tin demand from January to March 2022 was 87,000 tons, down 10% from the same period in 2021, of which China's apparent demand decreased by 23% compared with the same period last year. The largest downstream electronics industry in China has gradually entered the traditional off-season, with weak export orders and factors such as the disturbance of the epidemic have affected the performance of the demand side. In addition, as of May 20, the tin stocks in the previous period rebounded by 25% from the year's low to 2156 tons, and LME tin stocks rebounded 72% from the year's low to 3285 tons. Therefore, it is expected that tin prices are expected to continue to weaken in the case of weak supply and demand and recovery of inventories. Liu Peiyang said.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: Ukraine will cut wheat production sharply, and the world's largest wheat importer says "millions of people" may die from the food crisis

Affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and Western sanctions against Russia, international food prices have risen sharply. The latest report shows that the production of Ukrainian winter wheat, which will be harvested this summer, will be significantly reduced, which will exacerbate the current global food crisis.

Representative of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Mikhalcuk said on the 22nd that according to THE INITIAL ESTIMATE OF FAO, Ukraine will lose 49% of the winter wheat harvest and 38% of the rye harvest due to the impact of the conflict. In addition, some Ukrainian agricultural people believe that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has led to a reduction in the area sown to grain in Ukraine and a shortage of pesticides, and Ukraine's subsequent grain production may be further affected.

On Monday, according to the Financial Times, Egyptian Finance Minister Mohammed Maith warned in an interview that "millions" could die of starvation around the world due to increased food shortages triggered by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, has launched a massive bread subsidy program in the face of wheat shortages. Before the conflict, Egypt imported most of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine. Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said this month that the country's wheat reserves could be maintained for about four months. In addition, the government plans to buy 6 million tons of local wheat while looking for new sources of imports from countries such as Pakistan and Mexico.

The General Assembly adopted a resolution calling on the international community to urgently provide support to food-deficit countries

The United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution on the 23rd calling on the international community to take concerted action to urgently support countries affected by the food security crisis and promote the establishment of an equal multilateral trading system within the framework of the World Trade Organization.

The resolution calls on the international community, including the G7 and G20, to make global food security a top priority and to support multilateral efforts to find affordable solutions to the crisis. The resolution calls upon United Nations Member States and other relevant stakeholders to keep food and agricultural supply chains running and to provide farmers with the technical means and assistance to enable them to sustainably produce crops and livestock.

The resolution stressed the need to keep trade channels and markets open and to eliminate all forms of protectionism, stressed the need to curb fuel prices in order to maintain food price stability, and called on States not to hoard energy products.

This article originated from Futures Daily