(Text/Li Pengtao Editor/Ma Yuanyuan) When the new crown pneumonia virus has not dissipated in the world for two and a half years, the recent monkeypox virus has provoked people's sensitive nerves.
From 13 to 21 May, 12 countries worldwide that are not endemic to monkeypox virus have reported 92 laboratory-confirmed cases and 28 suspected cases of monkeypox under investigation, WHO said.
As a historical monkeypox outbreak that has occurred mainly in Africa, there is no definitive travel link between the reported cases and the endemic area. WHO expects that more cases of monkeypox will be discovered as surveillance expands in non-endemic countries.
While monkeypox has not yet been definitively identified as the "next epidemic", capital market-related concept stocks have heard the wind. On May 23, Zhijiang Biology led the rise of 20%; Youningwei harvested a 20CM limit, and Daan Gene, Shuoshi Biology, Shengxiang Biology and so on also followed suit.
But the good times are not long, today's monkeypox concept stocks changed yesterday's soaring trend, and the stock price began to fall. Among them, Zhijiang Biology closed down 1.37% to 48.88 yuan / share, Shuoshi Biology closed down 3.85%, Dean Diagnostics closed down 1.67%, and Shengxiang Biology closed down 6.29%
Although many monkeypox concept stock companies have publicly stated that they have developed monkeypox virus nucleic acid detection kits; the research and development and application of their related products are still in their infancy, and a number of listed companies have said that "the impact on performance is still uncertain.".
Guolian Securities and other institutions pointed out in the research report that due to the long development cycle of the virus vaccine and the relatively short development cycle of the detection reagent, the latter may have certain investment opportunities in the short term; but in the long run, investors still have to return to the fundamentals and make rational judgments about the sustainable growth space of related concept enterprises.
"Monkeypox is extremely low transmittal"
According to public information, monkeypox virus is a natural epidemic disease caused by monkey ceiling virus, which is a rare viral zoonotic disease, which is closely related to smallpox virus virus and is mainly transmitted to humans through the skin, respiratory tract or eyes of infected animals or through wounds in the mucous membranes of the nose and oral cavity.
Monkeypox virus is divided into West African strains and Congo Basin strains, of which the West African strain case fatality rate is about 3.6% and the Congo Basin strain case fatality rate is about 10.6%; however, the human-to-human transmission of monkeypox virus is not strong, and the Congo Basin strain has an estimated RO (basic infection index) of about 0.6-1.0, and the West African strain has a lower expected RO, while the smallpox RO is expected to be between 3.5 and 6.0.
Historically, monkeypox outbreaks have occurred mainly in Africa, but since May this year, monkeypox infections have mainly come from the United Kingdom, Spain and Portugal, and the rest are distributed in Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United States. The monkeypox strains detected so far are all West African strains with mild symptoms.
The monkeypox outbreak is different from the past, the above-mentioned countries involved in monkeypox cases are not the countries where the virus is endemic, and many cases have no travel history to the monkeypox epidemic area, and the source of infection and transmission route are not clear; in addition, the monkeypox epidemic has spread to many european countries, indicating that its transmission may have lasted for a period of time.
From a transmission perspective, monkeypox is not easily transmitted from person to person. The European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) pointed out in the risk assessment report that the spread of monkeypox from person to person occurred through close contact with infectious substances at the skin lesions of infected people, respiratory droplets and pollutants during prolonged face-to-face contact.
According to Andrea Ammon, director of the European Cd-ed and Control Centre, "Most of the current cases have mild symptoms of illness and the likelihood of transmission is very low for the wider population." ”
Even though the likelihood of monkeypox transmission is low, after experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic, people have gradually become more alert to infectious epidemic viruses.
After the first case of monkeypox in the United States was detected, it quickly ordered a $119 million monkeypox vaccine from Danish biocompany Bavarian Nordic, which is expected to be delivered in 2023. Bavarian Nordic revealed that in addition to the $119 million vaccine, they also prepared an additional $180 million for the U.S. government to buy.
It is reported that the JYNNEOS vaccine with indications for smallpox and monkeypox was developed by danish biological company Bavarian Nordic and was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2019, and the JYNNEOS vaccine is one of the only two vaccines approved for smallpox virus prevention in the United States, and the only vaccine currently licensed in the United States specifically for the prevention of monkeypox.
There is no specific monkeypox vaccine yet, but WHO data shows that the smallpox vaccine is about 85% effective against monkeypox virus.
The product may be in the "concept" stage
In China, there are no reported confirmed cases of monkeypox, but the Department of Infection of Huashan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University suggested in the WeChat public account "Huashan Infection" that "infectious diseases have no borders, the risk of monkeypox virus entering the mainland will continue to exist, and with the emergence of epidemics in Europe and the United States, the risk of imported cases in mainland China will increase accordingly." ”
"Huashan Infection" believes that while paying close attention to the international monkeypox epidemic, we should be prepared in advance, strengthen the monitoring of cases with similar symptoms, develop diagnostic methods and reagents, and at the same time, we should start to reserve specific vaccines and antiviral drugs to avoid being in a passive situation after the emergence of cases.
In fact, in terms of diagnostic reagents, some IVD companies in the mainland have opened the reserve of monkeypox virus detection kits.
On May 22, Zhijiang Bio said in Guanwei that the company's existing CE registered product, the Monkeypox Virus Nucleic Acid Determination Kit (Fluorescence PCR Method), determines the gene fragments of monkeypox viruses by specific fluorescence methods, which can accurately identify monkeypox viruses and help accurately diagnose and prevent related diseases.
The next night, Heatscape Bio also said in Guanwei that it has developed a monkeypox virus nucleic acid detection kit (PCR-fluorescent probe method), which can detect monkeypox virus-specific target genes, high sensitivity, compatible with fluorescent PCR platform, simple operation, and can quickly realize the differential diagnosis of monkeypox virus.
Up to now, companies such as Daan Gene, Shengxiang Biology, BGI Gene, Shuoshi Bio and Dean Diagnostics have said that they have developed and obtained a stocked monkeypox virus nucleic acid detection kit, of which Daan Gene's testing products have obtained CE certification, and Dean Diagnostics' testing products are also applying for CE certification.
The observer network learned from industry insiders that when the above-mentioned enterprises develop monkeypox nucleic acid detection kits, developers only need to obtain the whole gene sequence of the virus to develop relevant nucleic acid detection reagents, and the whole gene sequence of the virus is a public resource.
It should be pointed out that "domestic IVD companies can manufacture nucleic acid reagents according to the gene sequence of the virus, but there is no real virus verification, indicating that it is still an unverified experimental product, and the nucleic acid detection kit needs the actual virus to verify and debug." If the domestic biological company has laboratories and staff overseas, it can develop kits abroad or send kits to foreign epidemic areas for verification. The above-mentioned industry insiders told the Observer Network.
Observer Network noted that among the above-mentioned IVD companies, only Zhijiang Bio and BGI Gene disclosed relevant information about overseas laboratories in their official websites. Among them, Zhijiang Bio's overseas laboratory is located in San Diego, California, while BGI has overseas centers and core laboratories in Europe, the Americas, Asia-Pacific and other regions.
In addition, in terms of vaccine technology and special drugs, China Biologics said on May 22 on Guanwei that as the national team of mainland biomedicine, it has safely sealed "cowpox" after eliminating smallpox in case of emergency. Although there is currently no specific drug to treat monkeypox, in July 2018, the United States approved the use of Tecovirimat for the treatment of smallpox. The drug protects non-human primates from the deadly monkeypox virus and may also be effective against this infection in humans.
This article is an exclusive manuscript of the Observer Network and may not be reproduced without authorization.