When Russia's "special military operation" against Ukraine lasted for nearly three months, Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO, once again attracting the attention of the international community. Cui Hongjian, director of the Institute of European Studies of the China Academy of International Studies, said in an exclusive interview with a reporter from the China Youth Daily and China Youth Network that Finland and Sweden embarked on a journey of "joining the treaty" under the joint action of stimulating the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the turn of the two countries towards national will, and the continuous expansion of NATO. The breaking of the old balance may mean the opening and establishment of a new balance, if all parties maintain a rational and pragmatic attitude, the European geopolitical security pattern is still expected to maintain balance and stability in the short term.
It is reported that at 8 o'clock local time on May 18, Finland and Sweden have officially submitted an application for "accession" to NATO.
Finland and Sweden have a long and deep history. Finland was part of the Kingdom of Sweden since the 12th century. After the russo-Swedish War in 1809, Sweden ceded Finland to Tsarist Russia, thus beginning a century of history under Tsarist rule, declaring independence in 1917 and becoming permanently neutral. Sweden also declared permanent neutrality shortly after the russo-Swedish war defeat.
It is precisely because Finland and Sweden have long pursued the concept of "military non-alignment" neutrality that both countries have maintained good diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union (Russia). Now, why did Finland and Sweden suddenly change course, abandoning military neutrality and applying to join NATO? Cui Hongjian believes that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has brought a huge ideological impact to European countries, and the main purpose of The active "accession" of Fenlin and Switzerland is to seek external security guarantees.
Cui Hongjian analyzed that after experiencing the impact of the two world wars, most European countries have tried to achieve "pan-European" peace through regional integration and the establishment of common security, and regard "the immutable territorial borders and the settlement of disputes by non-force" as diplomatic principles. However, after the end of the Cold War, some European countries regarded themselves as victors, believing that their ideas and institutional arrangements should be universally recognized by countries in the region and promoted through political and economic means. In this context, Russia's strategic interests and security concerns are trivialized or even ignored. Cui Hongjian said: "The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has broken the wishful thinking of 'Europe without war', and Moscow has shown with practical actions that they are unwilling to accept the dominance of the United States and Europe over the overall security structure of Europe after the Cold War." In this way, in the eyes of some European countries, the outbreak of conflict on the 'doorstep' poses a very immediate and real security threat. It is not difficult to understand that Finland and Sweden have thus developed a willingness to abandon their military 'non-alignment' policy and turn to NATO for security guarantees. ”
This willingness to seek safety and security is evident in two polls. According to Finnish radio and television poll data, only about 28% of Finns supported their country's accession to NATO in January this year, but this proportion rose sharply to 62% after Russia launched a "special military operation" against Ukraine, and after May, as many as 76% of the Finnish people wanted to join NATO. In Sweden, which does not border Russia, data from a March survey by local polling agency De Mospop showed that more than 50 percent of The Swedish population supported their country's membership in NATO, a number that has since risen.
Of course, there are also different voices in Fen-Sweden and China. In the eyes of some political elites, "renouncing neutrality" is not a wise choice. Former Finnish Foreign Minister Omioja has said: "I don't think Russia poses a direct threat to Finland, and joining NATO will not bring us the security we expect." Former Finnish President Tarja Halonen also said: "Finland should carefully consider joining NATO." Deborah Solomon, a member of the Swedish Peace and Arbitration Association, believes that joining NATO could trigger an arms race with Russia, but would make Sweden insecure.
Cui Hongjian told the China Youth Daily and China Youth Network reporter that on the issue of joining NATO, Fenlin and Switzerland should be very sober - do not give up their neutral status, and perhaps coexist peacefully with Russia; once they join NATO and become a country with policy tendencies, potential external threats may immediately turn into real threats. However, public opinion has played a great role in promoting the policy shift between the two countries. In the face of possible security threats, people's choices and attitudes are often emotional and realistic, and the shift in public opinion is not entirely rational and in line with the interests of national development. The political systems of Fenlin and Switzerland determine that the two governments must conform to the will of the people as much as possible in order to ensure the stability of the government to the greatest extent. "From this point of view, the change in public opinion has played a direct role in promoting the decision of the two governments to 'join the treaty.'"
NATO has long been open to the accession of new members. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken has made it clear that Washington will strongly support [Fenley] the two countries joining NATO. The British side is ready to provide security guarantees for the transition period of the two countries' "accession to the treaty". British Prime Minister Johnson visited Sweden and Finland on May 11 to sign security agreements with the leaders of the two countries.
In Cui Hongjian's view, NATO's continuous eastward expansion is also an important factor in the abandonment of military neutrality between Fenlin and Switzerland. "Europe currently lacks a reliable and effective mechanism for security cooperation," he said. For its own security concerns, combined with the reality of NATO's continuous eastward expansion, joining NATO seems to be the only feasible option for Fenlin and Switzerland to seek external security guarantees. But that doesn't mean the two countries want to be NATO's tools against Russia. ”
In the face of Finland and Sweden embarking on the "accession" journey, the Russian side showed a pragmatic posture, and the diplomatic statement went through a process of adjustment from resolute opposition to resistance to clearly drawing a "red line". On February 25, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that if Finland joins NATO, russia will make a resolute response, and the two countries will face serious political and military consequences. On April 15, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said she could not understand why Sweden and Finland should become the new front line of NATO's confrontation with Russia, "which will have a negative impact on peace and stability in Northern Europe." On May 16, President Putin said that Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO does not pose a direct threat to Russia, but the expansion of NATO's military infrastructure on the territory of the two countries will inevitably cause Russia to respond. Russian presidential press secretary Peskov also told the media that unlike Ukraine, Russia has no territorial disputes with Finland and Sweden.
Finland and Sweden are clearly not willing to overstimulate Russia's nerves. According to the Russian Satellite News Agency reported on May 15, Sweden's ruling Social Democratic Party recently released news that Sweden applied to join NATO, but opposed NATO's deployment of nuclear weapons and permanent military bases in Sweden. Finland also stressed that joining NATO is not aimed at any aspect, and national security is not a zero-sum game. Finland's foreign minister said in a previous interview: "The Conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not the same thing as Finland and Sweden seeking security guarantees. ”
Cui Hongjian believes that the Russian side consciously distinguishes the Ukrainian conflict from the "accession" of Finland and Sweden to the treaty, which not only sends a signal of "non-confrontation" and "seeking peace" to the two countries, but also draws a "red line" for the two countries. Finland and Sweden also responded positively to Russia.
In response to the question of whether The joining of Fenlin and Switzerland will completely break the geopolitical security pattern in Northern Europe, Cui Hongjian said that the old balance has been broken does not mean that a new confrontation will immediately emerge or escalate, and all parties need to make efforts to find a new balance. "Finland and Sweden are well aware and deliberately making a statement to Russia that they are not the same as Ukraine," he said. There is no real territorial dispute between Russia and Fenri, the economic and energy relations are also very close, the two countries joined NATO only to seek security guarantees, and it is not in the fundamental interests of the two countries to become a tool for NATO to confront Russia. In this context, in the future, while striving to join NATO, the two countries may seek to rebuild mutual trust with Russia and achieve a new 'peaceful coexistence' relationship. ”
In the view of Kortunov, director general of the Russian Council on International Affairs, Finland and Sweden can also play a relatively rational and restrained role in NATO.
Looking at the long term, is it possible for Russia to break through NATO's tight geopolitical blockade? Cui Hongjian believes that the joining of Fen-Switzerland and NATO will undoubtedly increase Russia's strategic pressure, and Russia's disadvantages in the face of NATO will be more obvious, but the strategic disadvantage can be compensated by tactical balance. "As NATO continues to expand, its internal divisions will widen," he said. At the very least, with Finland's accession, as a country with more than 1,300 kilometers of territorial borders with Russia, its understanding of the importance of peaceful coexistence with Russia is much deeper than that of other European countries. In the future, Fen-Switzerland and Finland can fully play a rational balancing role within NATO, and Moscow can also influence NATO and hedge hostility by achieving peaceful coexistence with the two countries and not being enemies of each other. All this also tests Russia's political wisdom and diplomatic skills. ”
Beijing, May 19 (Xinhua) --
China Youth Daily, China Youth Network reporter Zhao Qi Source: China Youth Daily
Source: China Youth Daily