The UK and Nordic countries have chosen to "lie flat", resulting in continued pressure on the healthcare system, with medical experts calling for "COVID-19 remains a major challenge to public health"

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In the face of the peak of the epidemic caused by the Omiljung mutant strain, the United Kingdom and the Nordic countries have successively cancelled all epidemic prevention measures and entered a new stage of so-called "coexistence with the new crown virus". However, the choice of "lying flat" not only leads to a run on medical resources in these countries, the health care system continues to be under pressure, and large-scale infection has also caused a long-term and sustained negative impact on social and economic operations.

Since February this year, some European countries such as the United Kingdom, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Iceland have completely lifted the restrictions on the new crown pneumonia epidemic. However, the virus is still mutating, the outbreak continues to spread, infections and deaths in these countries are on the rise, and some countries have reached their highest levels since the outbreak began. Many professionals have criticized the "lie flat" policy, calling on the government to be a little more patient and cautious about lifting the relevant measures.

Easing prevention and control has led to a double increase in infections and deaths

The UK began implementing the "Coexistence with covid-19" programme in late February, and the situation worsened dramatically. The outright "lie flat" policy overwhelmed the UK healthcare system, with a 94% hospital bed occupancy rate nationwide in April.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from March to early April, the rate of new crown virus infection in the United Kingdom continued to rise, with the number of infections in the country exceeding 4.9 million for two consecutive weeks in April, which continued to be at the highest level on record. COVID-19 deaths have increased for eight consecutive weeks, reaching 1,247 deaths in the week ended 29 April. According to the data, as of late April, 90% of people in England had been infected with the new crown virus at least once, and more than half of them were infected after the epidemic of the Omiljung strain.

Denmark and Sweden announced on February 1 and 9 respectively that all epidemic restrictions were lifted, including the need to wear masks on public transportation; the Norwegian government further abolished restrictions such as social distancing and self-isolation on February 1, following the announcement on February 1 to cancel most of the epidemic prevention measures; and on February 25, Iceland announced the complete elimination of epidemic prevention measures.

However, the lifting of epidemic prevention measures has led to a sharp rebound in the nordic countries, with new hospitalizations and deaths quickly setting record highs since the outbreak, and is still significantly higher than the peak of the epidemic caused by the Delta strain last year.

Sweden's cumulative confirmed case fatality rate is 2%, which equates to one in every 500 people dying of COVID-19, well above the global average of 1.24%. Since the announcement of "lying flat" on February 9, an average of 193.5 people have died of COVID-19 every week.

In just a dozen days after Denmark fully liberalized the prevention and control of the epidemic, the number of confirmed cases and deaths has skyrocketed. It reached a new high of 7,970 confirmed cases per 1 million people on February 13, more than the Record in December 2020; 4.92 deaths per 1 million people per day, also much higher than the previous record.

According to data from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, two days before the announcement of the lifting of the epidemic prevention and control, the number of new confirmed cases nationwide was 26,109 and 25,086, respectively, setting a record high.

After the comprehensive lifting of epidemic prevention measures in Iceland, the number of confirmed cases once reached 4,300, setting a new record for the number of new confirmed cases in a single day. Iceland's largest hospital has also declared a state of emergency in response to a surge in hospital admissions and severe cases infected with the coronavirus.

The long-term economic and social consequences should not be underestimated

After choosing to completely "lie flat", the rapid increase in the number of new crown pneumonia patients poured into the hospital, overloading the medical system; due to the infection of new crown pneumonia, a large number of absences and related sequelae caused by infection with new crown pneumonia should not be underestimated, and the long-term consequences of economic operation and social operation should not be underestimated.

The surge in the number of COVID-19 patients seeking medical treatment and healthcare workers on leave due to the virus has led to a difficult and crisis in the UK's healthcare system. According to the Financial Times, the number of vacant beds in hospitals in england fell to the lowest since the epidemic in April, with only 5.4% of beds vacant. The number of absent health workers in the UK National Health Service reaches 200,000 every week. Currently, there are 6.2 million patients in England alone on the non-emergency treatment waiting list.

According to statistics, 1.7 million people in the UK have "long-term symptoms of covid-19", of which 2/3 of them have affected their daily lives and 1/5 of them have severely limited mobility, which will bring long-term pressure to the UK medical system. According to statistics, since the announcement of the "lying flat" policy, British hospitals, schools, and enterprises have generally reported that about 1/10 of employees are absent due to infection with the new crown virus, and 500,000 jobs have been vacant in the food and agriculture sectors, and the economy is far from normal operation.

British media recently quoted a survey as saying that 1/4 of British companies said that the new crown pneumonia epidemic is the main reason for the shortage of employees in enterprises. According to a report by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change in the UK, the reduction in labour force and sequelae from covid-19 infection will lead to a decline in social productivity, and the UK economy is expected to shrink by about 1%.

The latest figures released by Sweden show that more than 640,000 Swedes are queuing for treatment. Of these, more than 200,000 people have been waiting longer than the legal time. Swedish Health Minister Lena Harlengren said: "The pandemic has put historic pressure on the Swedish healthcare system. Many nursing services had to be postponed and the staff was under extreme stress. Statistics Sweden data shows that the number of employees who are absent from work related to the new crown pneumonia epidemic has recently reached 140,000, and the number of absentees continues to increase, which has a sustained negative impact on the economy and society.

In Denmark, although 62% of the population has received a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, the number of patients with severe COVID-19 has increased significantly after choosing to "lie flat" completely. The Danish health system has been forced to postpone all non-emergency surgeries in order to prioritize the treatment of COVID-19 patients.

Camilla Stoltenberg, director of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, said: "In the past week, the number of hospital admissions infected with COVID-19 has increased by 40%, causing great pressure on intensive care units. ”

Iceland's chief epidemiologist, Sorolf Gudnasen, recently admitted that in the first quarter of this year, the number of COVID-19-related deaths in Iceland far exceeded expectations. In 2020 and 2021, due to the implementation of strict epidemic prevention measures, the mortality rate of covid-19 infection in iceland among the elderly over 70 years old has remained at a low level.

Professionals have called for caution in lifting anti-epidemic measures

Numerous professionals have criticized the complete "lying flat". The British journal Nature published a study in March criticizing the Swedish government's response to the outbreak as "very bad" and herd immunity "unattainable". "Sweden's response to COVID-19 has been unique and characterized by too laissez-faire in terms of morality, ethics and science," the report said. ”

Earlier, more than 2,000 british scientific figures issued a joint open letter asking the government to restart epidemic prevention measures. British Prime Minister Johnson also said that the possibility of another "lockdown" due to the epidemic is not ruled out.

Frod Flanders, an expert at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, believes that it is dangerous to expect to allow the virus to spread to achieve herd immunity. Erge, a professor of virology at Umeå University in Sweden, said that the epidemic is still a major threat to Swedish society, and the government should have a little more patience and should not rush to lift the epidemic prevention measures.

The British Medical Journal recently commented that the purpose of lifting the epidemic prevention measures is to "restore normal order", but ironically, this policy has triggered larger chaos. With the complete lifting of epidemic prevention and control measures, the number of close contacts traced and large-scale free testing declined, the rate of COVID-19 infection soared sharply, and "in education, health care, social care, transportation and business, attendance has declined, and sick employees have increased, resulting in serious obstacles to all aspects of social life."

Stephen Griffin, a virology expert at the University of Leeds School of Medicine in the United Kingdom, believes that it is not so much that the United Kingdom "coexists" with the new crown virus, but rather that it is "turning a blind eye" to the new crown virus. "By abandoning measures such as mass testing and isolation of infected people, we will never achieve low infection levels. Vaccines produce antibodies that weaken over time, and if no measures are taken to allow the virus to spread on a large scale, it will lead to infection of more immunely vulnerable people, and the new crown pneumonia epidemic remains a major public health challenge. ”

(London, Stockholm)

Source: People's Daily