According to relevant media reports, US President Biden said that he is considering ways to end the imposition of tariffs on trade with China, but no relevant decision has been made at present, which has triggered a heated discussion in many circles of friends.
In a recent interview with Forbes, Ambassador Qin Gang mentioned a set of data that the trade war has not reduced the U.S. trade deficit so far, but rather has increased spending by U.S. companies and U.S. consumers. Since the tariffs went into effect, they have cost U.S. companies more than $1.7 trillion and increased U.S. household spending by $1,300 a year. In addition, in the first three years since the start of the trade war, that is, in 2018, 2019 and 2020, the United States has exported to China every year below the level of the pre-trade war, that is, in 2017. How many jobs have been lost in the United States during this period? More than 240,000. So these numbers can fully illustrate that the trade war is not good for anyone.
If Biden intends to end the trade war with China, it is out of the consideration of U.S. interests first; then what will the United States do to continue to pursue its own interests? Are we ready to respond in advance?
First, a brief analysis of the causes and development of the trade war with China.
In the Trump era, in order to solve the problem of its own economy being derelict and being subject to China in the manufacturing industry, the United States tried to drive global capital to find a new way to replace China's manufacturing industry by imposing tariffs on Trade with China, in addition to the advanced manufacturing revitalization plan in the United States, Vietnam and India and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region with demographic dividends suddenly became the fragrant food that undertook the general manufacturing industry; we all know that China at that time, China's general manufacturing industry has begun to carry out a gradient shift from the eastern coast to the central region; unfortunately, shortly thereafter, the new crown epidemic occurred in Wuhan, the core city that undertook the strategy of the rise of the central region- the thoroughfare of the nine provinces, and it was thought that China, which had pressed the pause button, would suffer a major blow to the general manufacturing industry that drove foreign trade, but under the government's strong control measures, China quickly controlled the epidemic.
At the same time, the new crown virus that the six relatives do not recognize has begun to spread in Europe and the United States, and has indiscriminately attacked countries such as Vietnam and India, which have a large population; instead, China has supported foreign exports through control and resumption of production and work; so the United States has to continue to import necessary materials and various commodities from China. At the same time, because of the increase in the total amount of money in circulation in the market caused by quantitative easing, the price of commodities formed by the price increase of raw materials in the global market has risen, which has increased the cost of consumption in the US market, and the resulting inflation has caused a huge reaction to the stability of US society.
Second, briefly summarize the antecedents and current situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
According to a more accepted account, NATO's eastward expansion poses a huge threat to Russia's national security; after Biden took office, with the increasing tensions in Ukraine, the United States, facing inflation, began to arch Eastern Europe, a fragile sector of the European continent, in the context of the dollar interest rate hike; some experts believe that the purpose of this is to drive European capital to flow into the United States when the dollar rate is raised, so as to alleviate the adverse effects of inflation, and the actual situation seems to be evolving towards the script expected by the United States.
Finally, briefly predict the direction and outcome of the US-China trade war.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the survival pressure of Chinese small and medium-sized enterprises, especially those engaged in domestic business, has doubled, and the resulting employment problems will directly impact social stability, which is the next major problem facing China's economy.
The ideal goal of the development of the United States according to the current script may be that global capital returns to the United States, promotes the development of the US stock market and technology, and under the dual benefits of the internal meta-universe and the external spaceship faction, another round of new advanced manufacturing and energy technology revolution will be launched in the United States; and in the post-epidemic era, the general manufacturing industry will gradually shift from China to Vietnam, India and other countries; these two moves may interrupt the rhythm of China's economic development.
Under such circumstances, if the United States is determined to end the trade war with China, does it mean that the above layout has been completed and is irreversible?
The above may be the medicine sold in the American gourd. If these predictions are accurate, then the goal of the United States may be to weaken Russia and China through these wars, and successfully kidnap the European Union and Japan and South Korea, and also wean themselves off the middle east's energy dependence.
How do we respond?
Leaving aside the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, from the current point of view, Russia has begun to fire the first shot against the hegemony of the US dollar, using rubles for oil and gas trade settlement, and launched rubles and rupees and rubles and rmb and other currency swaps; and Iran and Saudi Arabia have also begun to de-dollarize in oil trade, in addition to Japan as the representative of Asian countries to sell US debt in batches, European countries are also trying to de-dollarize in energy and other bulk settlements and get rid of dependence on US information technology; then, As the world's second-largest economy after the United States, and also with the most complete manufacturing sector, the largest export trade volume, and the second largest holder of U.S. debt, should China stand up and unite all the forces that can be united to actively challenge the integration of existing superior resources from multiple types of war options?
According to the current international situation, China has suffered losses in the way of fierce war on the Taiwan Strait issue to deal with the challenges of the United States; then the strategy we may choose is: in the general manufacturing industry, through coordination with ASEAN countries to complete the orderly transfer of industry and share industrial dividends with partners; in the direction of scientific and technological innovation, if China wants to let go of a war with the United States, it needs to increase the attractiveness of global capital and create a more open technology transaction and financial capital market.
We can rely on the transformation ability of scientific and technological achievements and the ability to realize scientific and technological values possessed by the strong manufacturing industry and the unified market, form the "Avengers Alliance" to create a "unified front against Thanos", open up a new battlefield in the Asia-Pacific region, and work with alliance partners to promote a new round of scientific and technological revolution by addressing climate change, share the dividends of sovereign wealth and ecological value, and obtain a series of benefits formed by resisting hegemony and refusing to plunder.
With the scientific dedication of "Nüwa Supplementing Heaven", "Dayu Zhishui", "Jingwei Reclamation", and "Yugong Moving Mountains", we will actively respond to climate change; with the trend of "Pangu opening the sky", the courage of "Praising father day by day", the cleverness of "Chang'e Running to the Moon", and the spirit of "Immeasurable Hongjun", we have innovatively used the scientific and technological wealth left to us by "Chinese mythological figures in ancient times", digitally empowering the high-quality development of small and medium-sized enterprises, transforming the people's yearning for a better life into the struggle of intellectual elites to scientific and technological innovation. Opening another cultural rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and setting off a new round of scientific and technological revolution may be the positive contribution that Chinese civilization can make to the community of human destiny.