As early as 2014, studies reported that as climate change could cut the land suitable for coffee cultivation in half by 2050, the main growing areas of Brazil and Vietnam were particularly affected. Climate change will have a huge impact on the production capacity of Arabica and Robusta varieties in all current coffee-growing regions of the world, with far-reaching negative impacts on the economy.
The effects are highest at lower latitudes and lower elevations, and at higher elevations and higher latitudes the effects remain negative but less pronounced. Among them, Brazil and Vietnam are the world's main coffee producing regions, and they may significantly reduce the usable area of coffee.
Previous studies have even claimed that wild Arabica may become extinct in 2080 due to climate change, which is a topic that all of us should pay attention to, and everyone should start from now on to devote themselves to environmental protection matters. Because climate change is not only having an impact on coffee farming, but also potentially affecting coffee farmers and coffee farming estates.
While people are still paying attention and researching, we may pin our hopes on "well-nourished" Robusta beans, but new research suggests that in a "global warming" environment, Robusta coffee may not be as robust as usually thought. A study based on 10-year yield observations of nearly 800 coffee farms in Southeast Asia showed that the coffee industry overestimated the heat resistance of Robusta varieties, and yields tended to decrease dramatically once certain temperature thresholds were reached.
The study, published in the March 2020 issue of the journal Global Change Biology, is a strong warning to the global coffee industry that the more valued Arabica species are already facing existential threats due to changes in global climatic conditions.
Studies have found that Robusta coffee is much more sensitive to temperature than previously thought. Under climate change, its production potential could plummet as temperatures rise, jeopardizing the multibillion-dollar coffee industry and the livelihoods of millions of farmers.
The study was conducted jointly by the International Biodiversity Alliance and the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), the University of Southern Queensland and the Global Commodity Merchant ECOM.
The study focused on Robusta production farms in Vietnam and Indonesia, and the researchers found that the optimal average annual temperature for Robusta production was 20.5°C, 1.5-9°C below existing estimates, and according to the analysis of the study, for every 1°C above the 20.5°C average annual temperature point, Robusta's production was reduced by 14%.