Finland may be about to announce its membership in a military alliance NATO — something that would mark a dramatic turn in its foreign policy and could anger Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The Nordic nation, which has an 808-mile land border with Russia, has been carefully walking on the diplomatic bridle between Moscow and the West for decades. Finland's policy of neutrality during the Cold War meant it would avoid confrontation with Russia. At the beginning of World War II, the Finns successfully repelled the Soviet invasion, known as the Winter War.
But with Russia's gratuitous invasion of Ukraine, the long-standing neutrality that many Finns cherish may be coming to an end.
Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Foundation in the United States, told CNBC that Finland's accession to NATO would end the idea of "forced neutrality between East and West."
"This highlights how Russia's brutality in Ukraine has forced a formerly neutral country to commit itself entirely to NATO, 'either fully supporting us or we won't protect you,'" he said.
Russia has repeatedly expressed its opposition to NATO expansion, which is one of the reasons why the Kremlin invaded Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had been outspoken about his desire to join the coalition before the invasion, but has since acknowledged that it is unlikely now.
public opinion
So far, NATO countries (30 members in total) have provided military equipment to Ukraine, but they have refused to send troops because it would effectively plunge Russia and the West into war. One of NATO's guiding principles is that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all members.
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said Finland would decide within a few weeks whether to join NATO. This could also prompt neighboring Sweden to do the same.
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said last week: "I will not give any timetable for when we will make a decision, but I think it will happen soon," adding that Finland's NATO membership would be decided "in a few weeks".
Polls show that since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, most Finns are now in favor of joining NATO. Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb said on Thursday that Finland was "certain" that it would apply to join NATO in mid-May.
NATO could benefit from Finland's geographical location and military capabilities. Its Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg, has said the country will be warmly welcomed.
risk
But at the same time, Helsinki is aware of the risks of joining the coalition.
In a report to the Finnish parliament in mid-April, the country's foreign ministry said: "If Finland applies to join NATO, it should be prepared for extensive efforts to exert influence and unpredictable risks, such as on the border between Finland and Russia." ”
Russia has said that if Finland joins NATO, it must "rebalance the situation."
Perhaps, more importantly, Finland's application to join NATO could also prompt Sweden to do the same.
Speaking with the Finnish prime minister earlier this week, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Anderson said Sweden was doing the same analysis as Finland.
"Finland's accession to NATO will also see Sweden, which has traditionally been more reluctant, join at the same time. This ends Centuries of Sweden's neutrality and adds a major military force and weapons producer to NATO," Kirkcord added.