According to the statistics of Johns Hopkins University, as of May 1, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed covid-19 cases worldwide exceeded 510 million, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 6 million. More than 22 million new cases have been reported in the past 28 days and more than 80,000 new deaths in the past 28 days.
Compared with the peak of the epidemic at the beginning of this year, new infections and new deaths have recently declined globally. However, recent reports from the United States and the European Union have pointed out that the number of people actually infected with COVID-19 in the United States and Europe may be much higher than the number reported.
At the same time, new variants are raising concerns that two Opmi Kejung subtype variants may be causing a new wave of outbreaks in South Africa. In addition, the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures in some countries has also triggered the question of "too early".
Focus 1: The actual number of infections in Europe and the United States may far exceed the number of reported people
As of April 30, local time, the United States has reported a cumulative total of about 81.35 million confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia, with nearly one million deaths. Based on the U.S. population of about 330 million, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States accounts for about 24% of the total population. According to the latest report from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the actual number of COVID-19 infections in the United States may far exceed the above figures.
A blood survey analysis report released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on April 26 local time pointed out that since the beginning of the new crown epidemic, about 58% of the US population has had at least one new coronavirus infection. With a population of about 330 million in the United States, more than 190 million people in the country have been infected with the coronavirus.
The report also shows that more than 75 percent of children in the United States have been infected with the coronavirus, higher than the proportion of adults infected. The CDC believes that the COVID-19 vaccination rate of children in the United States is lower than that of adults, which may be the main reason for the higher rate of COVID-19 infection in this group. As of April 26, about 35 percent of children ages 5 to 11 in the United States have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, and about 68 percent of adolescents ages 12 to 17 have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine.
U.S. scientists completed the survey by testing special antibodies in the blood that can only be produced after infection with the new crown virus and can stay in the blood for up to two years.
According to the report, about 34 percent of the U.S. population showed signs of contracting the coronavirus in December, and with the emergence of the Omikejong mutation, that figure increased by 24 percent in just two months. Christie Clarke, co-head of the CDC's Tracking the Extent of COVID-19 Infection Team, said, "I did expect this number to increase, but I didn't expect that to increase so much." ”
On April 1, local time, Italy cancelled a number of epidemic prevention measures, and tourists lined up outside Rome's attractions. Figure/IC photo
Immediately after the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the blood analysis report, the EU public health agency pointed out that the proportion of actual COVID-19 infections in the European population may be higher.
EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriadez said on April 27 local time that it is estimated that 60% to 80% of the European population is already infected with COVID-19. It is reported that the number of cases reported by European countries to date accounts for about 30% of the European population, but the actual number of infections in Europe is likely to be as high as 350 million, or about 77% of the European population.
Kyriadédes also said the EU is now abandoning mass testing and case reporting with the recent drop in COVID-19 infections and deaths. However, as the coronavirus continues to mutate, a new surge in cases is likely to occur in Europe, and countries should put in place a plan to restore a state of emergency at any time. In addition, EU governments should strengthen COVID-19 vaccination for children.
A EU draft document disclosed by Reuters on April 26 showed that the European Commission was about to declare a new phase of the "post-emergency phase" of the new crown epidemic. At this stage, the EU recommends that Member States give priority to testing people who are vulnerable to severe illness after infection, as well as key populations such as healthcare workers, while paying close attention to new variants that may occur.
Focus 2: The neo-Aomi Kejung subtype variant strain is more capable of breaking through human defenses
In South Africa, the country where the Aumi kerong variant was first discovered, two newly discovered Aomi kejung subtype variants, BA.4 and BA.5, are triggering a new surge in the number of cases. Both variants are thought to be more infectious and immune-evasive, but may not have increased pathogenicity.
The number of new cases in South Africa has declined since February, but in late April, the number of new cases in South Africa rose rapidly.
On April 29, local time, South African Health Minister Fahra said that the number of new confirmed cases in South Africa in the past 14 days has continued to rise, and may be entering the fifth wave of the new crown epidemic, which requires high vigilance.
Currently, there are more than 6,000 new confirmed cases in South Africa every day, but in early April, that figure was less than 1,000. South African medical experts say about 70 percent of the country's new confirmed cases are infected with these two subtypes. However, there has been no surge in hospitalizations and fatalities in South Africa.
South African coronavirus expert Tullio de Oliveira said opicalon subtypes BA.4 and BA.5 appear to be more contagious than BA.1 and BA.2. At the same time, mutations in these two new subtypes make the virus more immune to escape. "We expect it to cause people who have previously been infected with COVID-19 to re-infect, and it can also break through the immune barrier produced by some vaccines."
De Oliveira said that although almost all South Africans have been vaccinated or infected with the new crown, the number of cases in South Africa is still surging, suggesting that the new strain is more likely to have the ability to bypass the human defense system.
On March 17, local time, medical personnel in Seoul, South Korea, were transporting patients with new crown infection. Figure/IC photo
However, according to a WHO report, current scientific research suggests that the new Aumi kejung subtype variant may not be more severe in terms of pathogenicity.
Abdel Karim, a public health expert at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa, said the new Aomi Kejung variant appears to soon dominate the epidemic of the original Aomi Kerong variant, but it is too early to judge that the new strain will trigger a large-scale outbreak.
According to the US "Fortune" magazine reported on April 30, a number of Us medical experts pointed out that BA.4 and BA.5 have appeared in the United States. Andy Pecos, a virologist at Johns Hopkins University, said researchers have found the genetic sequence of BA.4 in test samples from multiple U.S. states. The new variant is apparently circulating in the United States, it's just unclear how widespread it is. ”
In addition, cases of BA.4 and BA.5 infection have been reported in Europe, Canada, Hong Kong and other countries and regions.
Focus 3: Many countries have relaxed epidemic prevention measures since May
Since the beginning of this year, many countries have introduced two rounds of measures to relax epidemic prevention measures, and in May, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and other countries have once again relaxed epidemic prevention measures. Denmark will halt its COVID-19 vaccination programme from mid-May, becoming the first country in the world to suspend its COVID-19 vaccination programme.
The South Korean government announced on April 29 that it will cancel the outdoor mandatory mask wearing order from May 2, which is the latest measure to gradually relax the new crown epidemic prevention measures in South Korea. Previously, South Korea has introduced a number of measures such as relaxing the number of people in private gatherings, extending the business hours of restaurants and cafes, and relaxing entry epidemic prevention measures.
But President-elect Yoon Seok-yue's new government has objected to lifting the outdoor mask order, calling the decision "premature." According to Yonhap News Agency, there are still 50,000 to 60,000 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea every day in recent times, and there is still a fatal risk of infection with COVID-19 for unvaccinated people and people with underlying diseases.
Malaysia announced the lifting of a number of anti-epidemic restrictions from May 1. Malaysian Health Minister Hayyiri announced on April 27 that from May 1, people will no longer be required to wear masks outdoors and in open places, social distancing will no longer be required, and people will be allowed to visit each other during Eid al-Fitr.
Khairi also announced that travellers who have completed vaccinations will no longer be required to provide COVID-19 testing certificates and undergo rapid antigen testing upon entry into Malaysia from May 1.
The Thai government also announced that since May 1, international travelers who have been fully vaccinated do not need to undergo nucleic acid testing and isolation after entering Thailand, and the original inbound nucleic acid test has been changed to antigen rapid test. However, inbound passengers are required to upload vaccination certificates and other documents in advance. This measure has been interpreted by the media as a new measure to promote Thailand's tourism economy.
Against the backdrop of European countries having previously relaxed epidemic prevention measures, the Danish government announced on April 27 that it would terminate its mass vaccination program from May 15, becoming the first country in the world to suspend the COVID-19 vaccination program.
A statement issued by Denmark's National Health Service on April 27 said that danes have a high vaccination rate, the epidemic situation has been reversed, and Danish nationals will not be required to be vaccinated against covid-19 from May 15, but they can still choose to complete the remaining doses.
According to the Danish Health Service, 4.8 million Danes, or 82 per cent of the population, have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Coupled with the fact that many Danes have been infected with COVID-19 since the Omiljun strain became the mainstream strain in the country, the country has a "high herd immunity rate".
However, the Danish Health Authority stated that it was a temporary measure and that the Danish vaccination programme "may be restarted within a few months" depending on future changes in the epidemic situation.
Previously, for some countries to relax epidemic prevention measures, WHO said that countries should carefully consider the risks arising from the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures. It is hoped that all countries can fully weigh the pros and cons of relaxing epidemic prevention measures and quickly tighten relevant measures in the case of aggravation of the epidemic.
Beijing News reporter Chen Yikai
Edited by Zhang Lei, Proofread by Liu Baoqing