BEIJING, May 1 (Xinhua) -- On May 1, a full moon passed since Russia's decree requiring customers in "unfriendly" countries and regions to buy natural gas in rubles. In just 30 days, European countries are already in a dilemma, with rising energy prices making people miserable and causing social unrest. The United States, on the other hand, opened up the market and became the sole beneficiary of this energy "war".
"Out of breath" becomes a reality
On April 27, Russia announced that it had suspended gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria. This is the first customer to be "shut down" after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the ruble settlement order on April 1. Since then, gas prices in the European market have risen by 20% at one point.
On the same day, a relevant person from Gazprom also revealed that a number of European gas buyers have met Russia's payment requirements.
Bloomberg also quoted sources as saying that 4 European companies have started paying for gas purchases in rubles, and another 10 have opened accounts with Gazprom.
For Russia, this kind of "real action" approach is not only a deterrent, but also a relief from the pressure of sanctions - since the West has jointly sanctioned Russia, the Russian side will certainly respond with the most severe counterattack. After all, Russia's energy supply is particularly important for European countries.
Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the "ruble settlement order" may help Russia to stabilize the exchange rate of the ruble, "especially after the Western sanctions, the ruble once depreciated sharply, and now it has stabilized."
However, Zhang Hong also pointed out that Russia will face a more difficult economic environment and security environment for a long time in the future, and the international system and international pattern will also change.
Gazprom's headquarters at the Lakhta Center in St. Petersburg on April 27, 2022.
European countries are in a dilemma
In the face of Russia's counterattack, European countries have been torn apart from "monolithic", and even European countries such as Britain and France that are more tough on Russia have also staged a "face-changing" drama in which the front foot refuses and the back foot regrets.
Some media analysts pointed out that in the case of tight global natural gas supply, Europe is unlikely to completely get rid of its dependence on Russian gas in the short term.
At present, Germany, Spain and other countries have announced the restart of decommissioned coal-fired power plants, the Lignite Coal Mine operated by the Greek Public Power Company has also resumed work, and Italy has introduced new regulations on the use of air conditioners called "Constant Temperature Action".
Data chart: After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, European oil prices continued to rise. Vehicles pass by a gas station in the southwestern French city of Saint-Jean-de-Luz on March 3.
But responses are just a drop in the bucket to alleviate the energy crisis. Faced with high energy prices and sharp increases in the cost of living, people's lives are in a difficult situation.
In Poland, where the price of natural gas has soared by nearly 80 percent, many Poles living in the countryside have shut down their gas pipelines and gone to forest areas where logging is allowed to cut firewood for heating. British people took to the streets to protest the rise in energy prices and demanded that Prime Minister Johnson step down.
Zhang Hong believes that European countries can not completely decouple from Russian energy, but also need to sanction Russia, which makes it into an embarrassing situation.
Looking to the future, Zhang Hong said that due to the importance of energy security, most countries will still choose to accept the "ruble settlement order" to "ensure the security of Europe, ensure the economic stability of Europe, and ensure employment, which is beneficial to European countries."
The United States as the sole beneficiary?
At a time when ukrainians are displaced, Russia is under sanctions, and Europe is experiencing energy shortages, the United States has been pushing the conflict behind the scenes, reaping the dual benefits of politics and economy, becoming the sole beneficiary.
Source: US President Joe Biden.
U.S. LNG exports rose nearly 16 percent in March, hitting a record high, with shipments to Europe continuing to dominate, the data showed.
US Secretary of State Blinken also recently said that the United States has accelerated the shipment of liquefied natural gas to Europe to make up for the European gas gap.
The high cost and price of Shale oil and liquefied natural gas in the United States was not competitive in the European market, but now, European countries have to abandon cheap and convenient Russian energy and buy high-priced energy in the United States to help the development of American energy in the international market.
Zhang Hong said that under the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States has returned to the center of the international stage and ushered in a "highlight moment" of diplomacy. On the one hand, the international political influence of the United States has risen, and the transatlantic alliance has been reunited; on the other hand, the United States has opened up energy exports to the outside world, and the United States military enterprises have sold a large number of arms and made a lot of money. These are all "positive signals" for the United States. (End)