Regular Season Matches:
10/29 Grizzlies 104-101 Warriors
12/24 Grizzlies 104-113 Warriors
1/12 Warriors 108-116 Grizzlies
3/29 Warriors 95-123 Grizzlies
Total Warriors 1-3 Grizzlies
While regular season head-to-head duels should have some degree of value, frankly I don't think so. There is no reason for him - there are no main players on both sides in four games.
The last meeting was hands-free, when the Warriors put away all the main players and played in a rookie lineup; as for the first three games, the Warriors had two misses, and the Grizzlies were missed by Steven Adams, Dillon Brooks and others. Moreover, aside from the confrontation at the end of March, the first three matches have been some time since now, so there may be a lot of deviations in using those three matches.
Therefore, I will not talk much about the regular season matches, and the following is a list of my key points in this series, as well as the factors that may affect the win or loss.
How did the Warriors crack the Grizzlies' defense?
As a Warriors fan, I must admit that the team in the league today knows how to destroy the Warriors system the best, and the Grizzlies definitely make the list. I personally began to pay attention to the Grizzlies from last year's playoffs, and how the Grizzlies cut off the Warriors' passing path last year is still vividly remembered. Since that defeat, the Warriors' first problem every time they play against the Grizzlies is: How to crack the Grizzlies' targeted defense?
The Grizzlies are known to be a group of young people who run fast and jump high and have good discipline, which gives them a very good advantage in defending the Warriors, the point is that they know very well that "the Warriors' running position is to create a gap for shooters", which is why the Warriors have an average of 19 turnovers per game in the four games of the regular season.
I have never denied the success of the Grizzlies' targeted layout, especially last year's playoffs, which made Curry almost unable to do what he was best at C&S, which is full of admiration, but another fact: the Grizzlies have not played the Warriors who played in the PTSD combination at the same time, let alone the waves + Green.
After the Warriors system is most simplified, to put it bluntly, it is to create gaps by constantly crossing the cover, pulling the defense line without the ball, and occasionally with the blocking of the backcourt engine, and the most critical screws in this system, I think, are Curry (attracting defense) and Green (serving). The more five people on the field have these two qualities, the more destructive the Warriors will be.
So I believe everyone knows what I am going to say:
When you're targeting only one Curry, the difficulty is very different from when you have Three shooters on the court, Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole running around at the same time, and with Draymond Green's second shot ending with a very consistent Wiggins, I can only say that I don't think it's appropriate to judge this showdown by the Grizzlies' defensive performance against the Warriors in the regular season.
Of course, the Grizzlies change defense quickly, if they abandon Steven Adams to choose the All Switch is actually not impossible, then the Warriors offense to run out of the difficulty of greatly increased, but if the full change of defense, then the Grizzlies to think about the problem becomes: Ja Morant This defensive black hole how to make up? And can Jaron Jackson Jr. really play his DPOY strength after being pulled out? Frankly I don't think so.
In short, the Warriors' offense vs. the Grizzlies' highly targeted defense will definitely be one of the keys to the direction of the series.
Error control
In this year's playoffs, the Grizzlies' Pace finished in the league with 102.92, while the Warriors also finished fifth with 96.7. In other words, both teams are fast-paced teams. Why not use regular season stats (4th for the Grizzlies, 15th for the Warriors)? Maybe there is nothing wrong with the Grizzlies' part, but the Warriors' lack of Draymond Green during the defensive judgment of the two teams, to know that their "fast pace" is based on the defensive basis of the counterattack, without the defensive rhythm naturally can not be brought up.
Among them, if there is a mistake, the Warriors will take advantage of your fate to chase you, in terms of regular season data, the Warriors have 15.9% of the scores from the opponent's mistakes, ranking fifth, fast attack scores accounted for 12.4% is ranked seventh. However, when it comes to a quick counterattack, the Grizzlies will never lose to the Warriors, and they are ranked sixth and first respectively in the above two statistics.
In the regular season, both sides are in the middle of the opponent's fast-attack scoring event, and the gap is in the opponent's score after the mistake, the Grizzlies are third few, and the Warriors are in 21st. Looking back at the number of mistakes, the Warriors are the fifth most, the Grizzlies are the thirteenth, I don't know why the Grizzlies can so successfully prevent their opponents from converting their mistakes into the number of components, personally guessing that this is related to the speed of their defense, after all, if the opponent can only slow down to play the position battle after stealing, the chance of being converted into the number of components after the mistake is greatly reduced.
Anyway, the point I want to say is that the Warriors and the Grizzlies are both teams that are very good at switching fast attacks, so both sides must try to avoid unnecessary mistakes!
A two-game showdown
In the first round, the second team of both sides averaged the top two points per game in the league, which seems to be something to look forward to. However, after a closer look, you will find that the warriors who ranked first do not have the advantage.
The first thing to know is that the Warriors' second-team firepower of 43.2 points per game must take into account the "strongest sixth man in history", who played four games as a substitute. Second, the benches of the two sides have a significant gap in rebounding, with the Warriors averaging 13.6 per game in the second team and the Grizzlies averaging 21.3. However, there is a saying that the Grizzlies' first-round second-round perimeter was really miserable, shooting only 28.8%, and no one except Tyes Jones was normal. Unfortunately, the Warriors' side is not at all better, after deducting Curry and plug-in GP2 (75%), the best outside line is Otto Porter Jr.'s 15.6% (JTA 100% of 1 shot).
Given that both starting players have obvious flaws on the offensive end, I don't think it should be surprising if it becomes a defensive battle of 100 points or so. At this time, it is very important whose bench can jump the Surprise Soldier!
Above is the team stats section, which lists two important bench players.
The Grizzlies, of course, are Brandon Clarke, whose performance in the first round I can only describe perfectly, and against the Warriors' second team, who is weaker in the box, his performance is obviously crucial (and if nothing else, Jaren Jackson Jr. should still be in foul trouble).
On the Warriors side, I don't think they'll put PTSD+ Wiggins as the starter in the second round. Facing the Grizzlies' strong penalty area, the Three Waves will eventually have one person to go to the bench, and after watching the first five games, if one person is to go to the bench, I am sure it will be Jordan Poole. So their bench firepower had to be supported by Jordan Poole. However, in addition to this third-year student, Otto Potter Jr.'s performance is also very important, which I have repeatedly emphasized, and I will not say more here.
As for the countermeasure part, against the Grizzlies, I think the Warriors should be DNP Bjelica, he is too slow, if he were to face Brandon Clark, it would be a disaster. So I boldly advised Steve Cole: Let Cumminga go! Playing the small ball that the Warriors are good at, the odds are really greater.
And how are the Grizzlies going to limit Jordan Poole? I think it's still up to the team to defend, after all, the excellent single defense manpower should be allocated to take care of the Wave Brothers.
Offensive rebounds, secondary rushes
The Grizzlies are first in the regular season league and second in the playoffs, while the Warriors' offensive rebounds are tied for third to last (7) in the playoffs, the second only to the Lone Rangers.
The undead Warriors' playoff defensive rebounding rate was third from the bottom with 65.8%, and the Grizzlies ranked fourth with an offensive rebounding rate of 31.4%. Thinking of the Warriors' penalty area to carry Steven Adams (although I don't know if he will play), Brandon Clarke, two offensive rebounding wizards, I worry about them.
For the Grizzlies, their rebounding ability is undoubted, but the good news for the Warriors is that the above data on rebounding is all playoff, if put in the regular season, offensive rebounding they are still not good, but defensive rebounding is one of the best (the total number of defensive rebounds ranks second, defensive rebounding rate is sixth).
So maybe the above data is more or less influenced by Nikola Jokic (XD), but there may not be such a big gap in the strength of the two sides.
But what I want to say is, "those who get rebounds win the world", how do the Warriors do a good job of rebounding protection that they are good at? And how do the Grizzlies maintain a secondary score of sufficient quality? That will be the key to the direction of the series.
X-Factor
Warrior: Wiggins
The Grizzlies are more able to guard the Warriors' running position, we all know, the current offensive firepower is all pressed on the backcourt of the Warriors, if the tactics can not run, then the key to whether the offense is locked, I think it is Wiggins.
Remember when Steve Kerr famously said, "When we can't run tactically, give the ball to KD to singles — that's the best tactic." ”
I'm not taking Wiggins than Durant, but the two of them do have an advantage in physical fitness, compared to Curry and other defenders may be knocked by the Grizzlies, Wiggins ignore the defense and rely on the ability to eat physical fitness will be quite important, especially whether they can seize the opportunity to punish the Grizzlies in the low position, it can be said that there is a direct impact on the winning or losing of the game.
Grizzlies: Jaran Jackson Jr
The Warriors' defense dropped dramatically without Draymond Green, and the same was true for Jaren Jackson Jr. in addition to the Grizzlies.
Admittedly, Jaren Jackson Jr.'s exaggerated and disgusting large-range defense is really a big weapon for the Grizzlies' defensive end, and he who won the block king with 2.3 blocks this year will definitely cause the Warriors to be troubled when they cut into the end. However, after watching him play 24.5 minutes in the first round and leaving 5.2 fouls, the Warriors seemed to be able to avoid worrying about the box he had defended for a long time — because it was enough to put him on the court.
Will the lively and bouncy little Jarren Jackson be taught a lesson by the old jianghu Curry? Or can you stay on the field? This is really important for the Grizzlies. Don't ask him to attack, as long as he can do a good job of defense, it is enough!
Predict the outcome
To sum up, both sides of the offensive end are more blossoming, but the Warriors eat the feel, the Grizzlies are easy to rush; the defensive end of the Grizzlies are expected to use a large number of changes of defense to protect Ja Morant and Jalan Jackson Jr. and others, the Warriors have enough single points to limit the Grizzlies, but they are at a disadvantage in stature.
In addition to the situation on the day, I think the key to the outcome of this series is definitely a mistake. Whether it's the number of mistakes in the real statistics on Turnover, or the invisible mistakes of low-level fouls and defensive losses, in short, who can do these details well, I am optimistic about who wins.
When it comes to "detailed processing", we must not talk about "experience"! Regarding the playoff experience, no one should compete with me for the fact that the Warriors are better, right? In view of this, I personally believe that the Warriors have a greater chance of winning.
Finally, I still have to mention the reality, purely personal perception, you can take a look at it: I think this year's playoff referees are quite stealing the scene, and since the referee has been "assumed" to intervene, that 80% is the league's command, and the NBA is a commercial alliance, the core purpose is to make money, the Warriors and the Grizzlies, whose ratings are high, no need for me to say more, right?
Irresponsible Predictions:
The Warriors advanced 4-2 to the Western Conference Championship.