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At the moment, if you don't know how to operate on Friday and after the festival, then the next content, the content is very critical, you must read it.
In the past two weeks, A shares have experienced a sharp decline, and the anti-inflation resource chemical stocks with better logic have been brought down in an instant, and the decline is not small. Many chemical powders were seriously injured and began to express remorse and self-blame for holding resource chemical stocks. As everyone knows, the peripheral macro environment, just this week has undergone earth-shaking changes, these events are bearish for other industries but against inflation resources chemical stocks are really good, coal stocks take the lead in continuous rise is a good example, then let's take a look at what are the positives:
1. Russia extended restrictions on the export of chemical fertilizers and paid attention to potassium fertilizer sulfur
On April 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin directed the extension of Restrictions on Russian fertilizer exports until August 31, considering the possibility of further extension of the restrictions.
Last year, Russia exported urea, MAP/DAP and potassium chloride, accounting for 13%, 19%, 7% and 21% of global trade, respectively. Now that the extension of fertilizer export restrictions has become a fact, it will increase the cost of planting crops around the world, and the world will enter a new round of fertilizer price increases - food prices increases - food crisis - fertilizer price increases--。。。。。。 Urea is self-sufficient, with little impact but also benefiting from global price increases; the first round of restrictions on highly imported potash and sulfur prices until August 31 are expected to continue to rise.
2. Russia suspended the supply of natural gas to two European countries
On the 27th, the Russian tender clause required payment in rubles, and 100% prepaid, expanding the demand for payment of rubles from natural gas to petroleum products, or further expanding to crude oil exports.
As Poland and Bulgaria refuse to pay for gas contracts in rubles, Russia will suspend the supply of natural gas to both countries, and the price of natural gas in Europe has soared and led to an increase in the price of crude oil.
The main reason why Russia first attacked the Two Countries is that Poland and Bulgaria were former Warsaw Pact countries before they joined NATO and the European Union. After the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, these two countries are at the forefront; secondly, Bulgaria and Poland are more dependent on Russia's energy, hitting the pain wave and protecting the two countries, releasing warning signals to other European countries, and strategically disintegrating NATO sanctions in energy.
3, just now, Russia announced that this year's oil and gas production will decline.
Today, Gazprom Vice President Markov said that the company plans to produce 494.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2022, compared with 514.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas production in 2021, production will be down 4% in 2022, while Rosneft also announced that it expects oil production to fall by about 17% this year.
Macro analysts believe that the impact of the conflict on Russia's crude oil and natural gas production and exports will gradually become apparent from May.
4. Embargo Russian coal, and many countries have opened the "global coal grab" mode.
Russia is a big exporter of oil, gas and coal, in 2020, Russia's oil exports accounted for 11.1% of the world, natural gas exports accounted for 16.08% of the world, coal exports accounted for 17.09% of the world, so as long as NATO restricts Russian oil and gas and coal exports, it will directly affect the global energy supply.
After the EU embargoed Russian coal, many countries opened the "global coal grab" mode. Europe imported 810,000 tonnes of coal from the United States, 1.3 million tonnes from Colombia and 287,000 tonnes from South Africa in March, with total imports up 40.5 percent year-on-year. At the same time, the energy consuming countries are also frantically grabbing coal.
On the 21st, the national high-level once again emphasized that the energy structure is "coal-based", the A-share coal sector has risen continuously, and coal is the leader of the last wave of anti-inflation plates, and this time it continues to take the lead in rising, then the space for the rise of resource chemical materials stocks has also been opened.
5. Indonesian palm oil supply was officially cut off from the 28th
Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Ellanga Haldato announced that the scope of the ban on edible oil exports will be expanded from the 28th to include coarse palm oil (CPO).
Indonesia's palm oil ban has pushed up not only international palm oil prices, but also the prices of other alternative vegetable oils, which are likely to be affected, and soybean oil, the second most consumed vegetable oil in the world, has also risen to an all-time high.
Although Indonesia is a small country, it plays an important role in the commodity market, involving many resource products, and the cut off of edible oil will trigger a series of commodity price jumps, which will have a greater driving force for the rise in domestic resource and chemical stock prices.
6. The rapid depreciation of the renminbi is good for industries with a high proportion of export revenue
On April 28, the renminbi suddenly fell sharply, and the onshore yuan against the US dollar fell below the 6.61 mark, and the offshore yuan fell below the 6.65 mark against the US dollar, both for the first time since November 2020. For the sudden sharp decline in the RMB exchange rate, it was mainly affected by multiple factors such as the recurrence of the epidemic and the strengthening of the US dollar.
The depreciation of the renminbi is beneficial to industries with a high proportion of export earnings, such as pesticides, titanium dioxide, phosphate fertilizers, etc. The positive comes from two aspects: on the one hand, the products in the chemical industry are mostly priced in US dollars, which helps to improve the company's performance; on the other hand, it will further improve the competitiveness of domestic enterprises in the international market.
The essence of the current energy crisis is the mismatch between supply and demand caused by supply, and geopolitics has greatly impacted the supply market of commodities, which will keep commodity prices at "historical highs" until the end of 2022. According to the latest issue of the Commodity Market Outlook released by the World Bank on the 26th, energy prices will rise by 50.5% in 2022, and non-energy prices including agricultural products and metals are expected to rise by 42.7% and 15.8% respectively in 2022. The report also notes that if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict lasts longer, or if Russia is subject to more sanctions, commodity prices could be higher than currently expected.
This year, the certainty of international energy prices will remain high for a long time, and the resource chemical sector will continue to be in an upward cycle of prosperity, and in May it will continue to be firmly optimistic about resource chemical stocks benefiting from rising energy prices. It is recommended to pay attention to: upstream resource products that benefit from inflation, including oil, gas and coal, agrochemical, soda ash and other related targets. Oil and gas coal resources (CNOOC, Guanghui Energy, China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, etc.), potash fertilizer (Yakalium International, Salt Lake Shares, etc.), phosphate fertilizer (Yuntianhua, Chuanjinnuo, etc.), pesticides (Yangnong Chemical, Jiangshan Shares, Lier Chemical, etc.), soda ash (Yuanxing Energy, etc.), sulfur (Guangdong Shares: Pyrite acid); trichlorosil (Sanfu shares); biodiesel (Jia'ao Environmental Protection, Zanyu Technology); Fluorine Concept (Lianchuang Shares, Sanmei Shares); Undervalued White Horse (Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Xinhecheng, Jinhe Shares, Longbai Group, etc.).
Tip: No matter how good the logic is, it is also necessary to combine the rise and fall of the market and the trend of individual stocks to choose the timing of intervention and exit.