Introduction: Boshi theme industry is one of the highest yield funds in the history of A-shares, more than 15 times since its inception, and is also the trump card product of Bosera Fund. This fund manager is also the representative work of Deng Xiaofeng, a well-known A-share value investor, during the public offering. The head product of the head fund company is usually also managed by the company's ace fund manager. Jin Shengzhe, whom we interviewed today, is the current fund manager of Boshi Theme Industry. (Source: wind, as of March 31, 2022; past results are not indicative of future earnings)
In Jin Shengzhe's investment worldview, investment is an industry that can "stand and make money" with the depth of cognition, and cognition can be converted into income, so he values continuous learning and emphasizes a deep understanding of the laws of the world's operation.
In the specific investment framework, compared with the fund managers who have been in the Boshi theme industry, Jin Shengzhe has inherited the importance of valuation, but he does not "carve a boat and seek a sword" to buy low-valued varieties, but from the judgment of the expected yield of the stock, looking for companies with high cost performance.
Under Jin Shengzhe's emphasis on the concept of cost-effective and balanced allocation, we can see that the historical drawdown of its products is lower than that of similar products, but he also proposed that the focus of drawdown control is also on the will of the fund manager himself, which is like a Proverb in the United States: If there is will, there is way. As long as there is a will, there is a way.
Jin Shengzhe attaches great importance to customer experience, emphasizing that different product types and customer goals are placed in the first dimension. He believes that behind the investment is thousands of customers and families, therefore, the fund manager should accurately grasp the positioning of each product and the corresponding customer needs, on the basis of the overall investment framework unchanged, according to different products and customer investment objectives to match the specific investment strategy.
In the expansion of the circle of stock selection ability, although Jin Shengzhe is from a traditional industry, he definitely does not only select stocks in his own circle of ability. He believes that if you want to improve the winning rate of stock selection, you must follow the direction of the big industry. This usually needs to be found from the perspective of policy support and business laws, if there is only policy support, the lack of commercial laws, it will not become a good industrial direction.
Kim believes in the power of a cyclical pendulum, but unlike many, Kim does not think it is a simple mean reversion. Pendulum means that most of the time the pendulum swings at the extremums on the left and right, rarely staying in the middle. When a company's valuation is reasonable, it is not the best time to buy, and it is also necessary to analyze which direction the company is swinging, which is the most important factor affecting the short term.
Below, let's first share some investment "golden sentences" from Jin Shengzhe:
1. Your perception and perception of the world will be reflected in the combination, and if our view is correct, we can achieve benefits
2. Cost-effective investment, definitely not just buy cheap companies, but find a way to evaluate your good companies and cheap ordinary companies, understand how expensive your company is, how cheap a company is
3. For companies with less certainty, I need a higher expected rate of return as compensation
4. In the end of the asset management industry, it is not only necessary to look at the rate of return, but also to see the intermediate process, whether in the investment process, to meet the needs of customers
5. I will take the initiative to reduce or adjust the position when the cost performance is not good, then when the market begins to retrace, my product drawdown is also relatively small. What I pursue is not to make big mistakes when headwinds, and to surpass the market when there is a tailwind, so that after the end of a bull-bear cycle, the income of the product is still good
6. In the portfolio with a relatively large management scale, long-term assets must be included, which requires more high winning rate varieties
7. (On the construction of a combination of different products) This approach is a bit like an effective frontier concept of finance, after portraying the risk-return characteristics of different stocks, it is constructed based on the combination of different risk preferences, and the combination corresponds to the point where different risks and returns intersect
8. I will now unify all industries into two categories, one is that companies that can continue to earn excess returns, such as companies with brand premiums, can earn excess profits in the industry, such companies have long been the ballast stone of my portfolio; the other is companies that can improve the efficiency of society, and at the same time they can earn relatively reasonable returns, such as some companies that are more manufacturing
9. It is not enough to only look at the long term in investment, and even sometimes it will become an ostrich. The real way to relieve stress is to find the root of anxiety, know where you are not doing well, and how to do better
10. Understanding the period is not a concept of mean reversion, but to know that an asset is fluctuating most of the time, then we need to study the direction and probability of pendulum fluctuations
01 Cost-effective investment system
Juan: Can you talk about how you think about investing?
When I was still interning at Boshi Fund, the research director who recruited me in told me that the secondary market is a place where you can stand and earn money. You don't have to ask others for something like some B-B role industry, and you earn money by interpersonal relationships. Your perception and perception of the world will be reflected in the combination, and if we have the right view, we can achieve benefits.
This year is my tenth year in the industry, and I have a deeper understanding of these words. Investing is indeed a particularly good career. Through investment, I can understand the laws of social operation, know how all walks of life make money, the basic laws of business, and satisfy my curiosity to understand the world. At the same time, by investing in excellent companies, we can also create value for society.
Since investment returns come from a view of the world, professional investors must constantly improve their perceptions, which is also the basis for professional investors to create sustainable value. We must not only see more deeply than others, but also understand more thoroughly, otherwise the future may be replaced by artificial intelligence.
Zhu Ang: So can you talk about your investment framework and system?
Jin Shengzhe The focus of my personal investment framework is to pursue high cost performance, and the core is to find a balance between quality and price. The valuation of good companies is expensive, the valuation of poor companies is cheap, and the market pricing in most cases is reasonable. It is best if you can find a company with a good price, but most of the time you will not find such a perfect target.
For the most part, my investment is to constantly choose between good companies that are expensive and cheaper than ordinary companies. Cost-effective investment is definitely not just buying cheap companies, but finding a way to evaluate your good companies and cheap ordinary companies, understanding how expensive your company is, and how cheap a cheap company is.
For example, suppose we divide companies in the market into two simple categories: core assets and non-core assets. Among the core assets, there are high-end liquor, CXO, cycle leader, bank white horse, tax exemption, etc., and the corresponding valuations of companies with different business models are also different. Before judging the valuation, it is necessary to understand the business model of different companies, so as to derive a forward market value space, through which the expected rate of return for the next 3 or 5 years is calculated, whether it is 10%, 15%, or 20%, and look at the cost performance of the enterprise from the expected rate of return.
For non-core asset companies, the difference between them and core assets lies in the certainty of operation. Non-core asset companies usually operate more volatilely, with far less certainty than core assets, and their business models are more cyclical. For companies with less certainty, I need a higher expected rate of return as compensation. Assuming an annualized expected rate of return on core assets of 15%, non-core companies need an annualized expected rate of return of 25% to meet the requirement.
In addition, when determining the specific investment strategy of the product under the overall investment framework, the first dimension should be the customer needs behind the product.
I manage different types of products, including public funds, absolute return products, social security funds, etc., and the holder "duration" and investment goals of these products are different. For example, some absolute income products are specially customized by customers, do not pursue how much to earn, but can not lose money in each year; for example, social security, the investment period is very long, with 5 years to assess. Faced with different customers and product types, we can't do it with the same set of investment strategies. In the end, the asset management industry must not only look at the rate of return, but also look at the intermediate process, whether in the investment process, to meet the needs of customers. Not every client seeks to maximize profitability, they all have their own risk and return balance points.
In summary, my investment system is to judge the expected rate of return of different companies, select the companies with the higher cost performance, and then build our portfolio. In the investment process, the portfolio must meet different types of product characteristics and client goals.
Zhu Ang: There are many factors that affect the company's expected rate of return, including business model, business cycle, etc., how to understand the various elements and finally come up with a reliable expected rate of return?
For example, we studied a leading chemical MDI company, which is a cyclical stock with growth attributes. Over the past few years, the company has accumulated a strong competitive advantage, and the company can still make money when the entire industry is not making money.
So when judging the company's expected rate of return, it is nothing more than judging how much money the company can make in the next three years and what kind of valuation multiple it will get.
First, when we measure, we will strip away abnormal years in the company's earnings, such as supply-side reforms in 2017 and 2018, and 2020. In contrast, the company's profitability in 2019 is relatively normal, when the economic demand is not very good, but the supply of the industry is normally tight. Then judging from the supply side, in the next few years, in the context of carbon neutrality, there will be no new supply, and the total economic demand will not be so good, from which to draw a neutral supply and demand, the level of corporate profitability. Second, we'll make scenario assumptions about how much money the company can make when the industry as a whole doesn't make money. At the heart of these calculations is to get a sustainable profit after three years, rather than judging the industry cycle.
If the level of corporate profitability is obtained, it must be implemented to the corresponding valuation level. We will do some comparisons of international mature companies to understand where the valuation range of this type of company is.
There is also a key variable in this, that is, the judgment of the competitive landscape, some companies that we think can look at for more than three years, suddenly there is a change in the competitive landscape, which is not a simple cyclical fluctuation. For example, the adhesive film in the photovoltaic industry, we think that the leading companies in it are very competitive in the long run, but if one day we see that the gap between the catcher and this company is narrowing, then the valuation logic of the company in the next 3 to 5 years will be broken, and the company can only be treated as a short-term prosperity in accordance with the PEG. Therefore, changes in the valuation system usually come from changes in the competitive landscape.
02 Balanced configuration Controls drawdown
Zhu Ang: You manage product drawdown control is relatively good, and the loss margin of the bear market is lower than the market average, how is this done?
Jin Shengzhe I think that in the process of controlling the drawdown, the active awareness factor accounts for 70%. Some fund managers value the relative returns and aggressiveness of their products and may not put controlled drawdowns in the investment system.
The remaining 30% comes from my cost-effective investment framework and balanced investment strategy. Fundamental to a cost-effective investment framework is to find a balance between growth and valuation. I will take the initiative to reduce or adjust the position when the cost performance is not good, so when the market begins to retrace, my product drawdown is also relatively small. What I pursue is not to make big mistakes when headwinds, and to surpass the market when there is a tailwind, so that after the end of a bull-bear cycle, the income of the product is still good.
From my personal past positions, it can be seen that I will not concentrate my positions in a particularly focused on a certain track, and for a long time, mainly to the configuration of 7-10 industries, I hope that the industry configuration is relatively balanced, which can make the overall combination trend more stable, reduce the probability of making mistakes, and the customer's experience will be better.
Zhu Ang: In the process of product management, do you put special emphasis on position control?
Jin Shengzhe I think position control, more to control the volatility of net worth, does not enhance earnings. From the test of the historical returns of public funds, it can also be seen that it is not established to obtain excess returns through timing, and can only narrow the peaks and troughs of net value. Since this is the case, a relative return product may not need to do timing, but the absolute return product must control major risks through timing.
Then, the factors affecting timing are to see whether there is any risk of liquidity and fundamentals. For example, the tightening of liquidity in 2018 and the Sino-US trade war, these effects need to be avoided by reducing positions. Another example is at the beginning of the epidemic, which we have never experienced in our history, and we should not take immeasurable risks with positions. When managing absolute return products, whether you are optimistic about the market or not, in the face of major uncertainties, you must reduce your position. When it is found that the domestic epidemic situation has improved and liquidity continues to be released, it is too late to increase the position.
Zhu Ang: Among the products you manage, there are products with relative benefits and products with absolute returns, so how to manage different types of products?
Jin Shengzhe For different products, the underlying logic of my stock selection is actually the same. Through this cost-effective investment logic, a company's winning rate and odds are specifically judged, followed by the investment goals of different products, and the combination is constructed. For example, relative return products, which usually have higher requirements for returns, can put more stocks with high odds. Absolute return products, which require higher drawdown requirements, require more stocks with high winning percentages.
This approach is a bit like an effective frontier concept of finance, after portraying the risk-return characteristics of different stocks, it is constructed based on the combination of different risk preferences, and the combination corresponds to the intersection of different risks and returns. Therefore, the most important thing in investment is to portray the risk-return characteristics of different assets, and then understand the risk appetite of each product and match the optimal combination.
Juan: But win rate and odds are usually not combined, how to balance the winning percentage and odds?
Kim Seung-chul Achieve a balance between winning percentage and odds divided into three levels.
The first level, adhere to the circle of ability, in the field of expertise, the correctness of the winning rate judgment will be higher, so the combination construction, but also according to the circle of ability to do; the second level, to strengthen the depth of research, to understand the company in what way, what kind of cost to pay, to achieve the expected rate of return; the third level, constantly do comparison, more clear high winning rate of the variety, the corresponding odds, high odds of the variety, the corresponding winning rate, so that you can more effectively match the target of different varieties according to the product type In the portfolio with a relatively large management scale, long-term assets must be included, which requires more high winning rate varieties.
03 Sustainable circle-expanding action
Zhu Ang: I also mentioned the industry's cognition earlier, how do you expand your circle of ability in the industry?
Jin Shengzhe The expansion of the circle of ability is divided into several steps. The first step is to start from the industry you are familiar with and follow the industrial structure to expand outward. I started the industry to look at the financial industry, and then I looked at the common business, and the researcher period covered more traditional industries. When I first made an investment, I naturally preferred the traditional fields that I was familiar with.
But then I began to discover that to increase the winning percentage of investment, it must follow the direction of industrial structure changes, not fully focus on the areas that I used to be good at. So I combined the past circle of ability with the direction of industrial structure transformation, that is, the field of large manufacturing, and although the direction of new energy is an emerging industry, the business model is easier for me to understand.
The second step is to summarize after looking at many companies and industries. I will now put all industries into two categories, one is that companies that can continue to earn excess returns, such as companies with brand premiums, can earn excess profits in the industry, such companies have long been the ballast stone of my portfolio; the other is companies that can improve the efficiency of society, and at the same time they can earn relatively reasonable returns, such as some companies that are more manufacturing. Both types of companies have one thing in common, and their returns are often sustainable, meaning they can see farther.
Companies that look further also mean higher valuation levels and better business models. For companies with long-term low returns, even if they earn high profit returns in the short term, there are problems in the long term, and they can only participate in stages, but they cannot reposition them. For example, the cyclical stocks that have performed well this year, I am not involved in a lot.
Zhu Ang: Can you share a representative investment case?
For example, from public information, we can see that the first heavy position of many of my combinations is a special steel company. Many would argue that this is a typical cyclical stock that also gives the company a low valuation. However, if you carefully split the company's financial data, you will find that the company's gross profit margin and gross profit per ton are in the process of continuous expansion, and the profit growth is not so strong cyclical attributes, which is completely different from the traditional rebar companies.
The reason is that the company is doing special steel products, and China's manufacturing industry has been upgrading in the past few years, whether it is the bearings of automobiles, or the equipment of wind farms, or the supply chain of some parts companies, they are in an upgrade of raw materials. From this point of view, the company's cyclical attribute is very weak, then the corresponding valuation should not be a complete cyclical stock.
This company is very similar to another urea faucet, although the industry has a certain cyclicality, but the company's own competitiveness is very strong, in the competitors are losing money, but also can make money, and the product also has the characteristics of network dispersion, even if a product does not make money, you can also rely on other products to make money. Such a company can expand when others cannot make capital expenditures. Then once the industry gets better again, the profit elasticity is greater than that of small companies, constantly eating up the market share of others. The stock price fluctuations of this kind of company are completely different from the traditional cyclical stocks, with quantitative growth and structural upgrading.
From this case, it can be seen that when we discuss a company, we are not trying to judge how the cycle of the industry in which the company is located will fluctuate, but to understand what inherent competitive advantage the company has compared to competitors. So when we study a company, we need to understand what the core drivers of its growth are, whether to rely on their own ability to maintain growth or rely on external factors. Before 2018, we did not invest in photovoltaics, because the development of the industry is more dependent on government subsidies, not from the improvement of its own efficiency.
Zhu Ang: So investing in the company, you attach great importance to the competitiveness of the company itself, what unique competitiveness do you like?
For me, the most critical point of a company's competitiveness is whether it can contribute to the sustainability of the company's profitability. For example, some brand consumption, can continue to obtain excess profitability, from a strong brand premium. Some manufacturing companies can continue to earn reasonable returns by improving social efficiency. Like the special steel company in the previous case, the materials provided are in line with the direction of manufacturing upgrading, and it is also an improvement in social efficiency. However, if, like this year's upstream link, even if the profitability is high, this profitability is not sustainable, it is not my preferred company.
Zhu Ang: As you mentioned earlier, the highest winning rate of stock selection is in line with the direction of large industries, how to find companies that are in line with the direction of large industries?
From a policy perspective, there will be directions encouraged by many countries, but the priorities will be different. Just like why we like the direction of carbon neutrality, because the planning has been achieved in 2060, and various macro statements are also clearly visible and are a high priority. However, the policy directions encouraged by some countries will eventually be falsified: PPP in 2016, photovoltaics and electric vehicles before 2018.
I think from the perspective of policy encouragement and business law, the core is whether the industrial chain has vitality and whether it conforms to basic common sense and laws. For example, information security is also the direction of the industry that has been talked about for a long time, but the stock performance of the industrial chain is very general, because the policy has not brought special help to improve the operational efficiency of enterprises, which is not in line with commercial laws.
04 Pendulum thinking in investment
Zhu Ang: The pressure of investment is very large, you need to cultivate your mind inward, how do you resist pressure?
Kim Sung Chul When a person knows what he is going to do, the pressure is not great. The pressure in investment is nothing more than the decline in net worth and the backwardness of rankings. To alleviate the pressure from performance, it is not simply to tell customers, do not look at the short term, but look at the long term. If we don't do well in the short term, how can customers believe that we can do a good job in the long term.
It is not enough to look at the long term in investment, and sometimes it will even become an ostrich. The real way to relieve stress is to find the root of anxiety, know where you are not doing well, and how to do better. When your performance is not good, think about whether you can pick a good company. If you dig out one or two companies that excite yourself through research or research, this anxiety will be alleviated a lot.
On the other hand, your own mentality building is also very important. Investing in such things is always right and wrong. There are no all-round people in the market, and there can be no one who has been right. Investment should know how to reconcile with yourself, and being too anxious will affect investment decisions. At the same time, investment can not be everything, set up a single matching investment target, is a better way.
Zhu Ang: What people and books have had a great influence on you?
Deng Xiaofeng, a former fund manager in Boshi's theme industry, is the person who has had the greatest influence on my investment. When he was in the company at the time, we had some exchanges, and then I encountered some confusion in investment, and I would also ask him for advice. Deng Xiaofeng said a few words that had a great impact on me, one is that investment is the realization of cognition, and the other is that investment should be easier and simpler.
Because in addition to doing a good job in investment, as the head of the research department of boshi industry, I also need to do a good job in the management of departments and researchers, and I have also had confusion about the timing. He told me that we should make investment simple, try to do as little high-frequency game as possible, think clearly about long-term logical things, and internalize the changes and tracking of information into an understanding of the laws of the industry. When you are a researcher, you may know everything, and after making an investment, it is impossible to grasp the rise and fall of each day, but you must be clear about the simplest logic that determines the direction of the enterprise.
And one of the books that had a big impact on me was Cycle. One of the things that struck me most about the book Cycles is that everything is cyclical, like a pendulum, repeating itself over and over again. This pendulum stays in the middle only twice during a wave, swinging most of the time either from left to right or from right to left.
This made me understand that the fluctuation of a company's stock price is the same, most of the time does not stay in a reasonable valuation position (in the middle of the pendulum), more often it is oscillating between overvaluation and undervaluation. Understanding the period is not a concept of mean reversion, but to know that an asset is fluctuating most of the time, then we need to study the direction and probability of pendulum fluctuations.
As an example, researchers often say that the company has fallen to a reasonable valuation and can bottom out. But in fact, we need to know why the company has fallen, whether the pendulum will continue to go down or change.
Zhu Ang: Is there anything you can share about the case of the swing of the cycle?
Jin Shengzhe This year's market has the effect of cyclical oscillation. Over the past few years, we've bought a bunch of cyclical stocks with Alpha attributes, which can grow even when the economy is worse. But the problem is that many of these cyclical growth stocks have fallen below 10% at their highs at the beginning of the year. Under the premise that the company's valuation system has not undergone qualitative changes, the pendulum has reached a relatively extreme position. Then the pendulum should continue to swing in a more extreme direction, nothing more than a few situations:
1) The fundamentals can be repaired, which is more difficult, because cyclical enterprises need time to expand production;
2) Such enterprises have made higher value products, such as entering the field of new energy, which may occur at some point in the future, but the current proportion is still very small;
3) Look at corporate value over a longer duration, but most cyclical stocks do have a hard time seeing clearly what will happen in 10 years.
Since these three points are difficult to happen, it means that the pendulum is unlikely to continue to swing in a more extreme direction. So what force pulled the pendulum back? One is the traditional cyclical stocks, which have found the downstream demand for new energy, and we will not say whether these demands can be sustained, but we do swing the power of the pendulum back. The other is the carbon neutrality context, which triggers a serious mismatch between supply and demand, causing prices to rebound, causing the pendulum to drag back.
Looking at the company with pendulum thinking, you will naturally understand why the cycle white horse has reached its current position, and may be close to the midline position of the pendulum (reasonable valuation).
If we can look long enough, we can indeed bet at this position. But to look a little shorter, we also have to consider which direction the pendulum will swing, and whether this group of well-valued companies will become cheaper because of the pendulum effect, giving us a better place to buy. So I will continue to watch the fundamentals of this batch of stocks change, rather than rushing to bet.
Juan: If you weren't a fund manager, what would you do?
Jin Shengzhe When I was a master's student at Peking University, I studied finance, and the main consideration was to make career choices in the directions of banking, consulting, investment banking, and asset management. I think the asset management industry is very suitable for me, can satisfy my curiosity about the world, let me continue to deepen the depth of understanding of various industries, at the same time, to create value for customers also let me get a certain sense of achievement. So, I hadn't particularly thought about going to any other profession before.
If you really don't want to be a fund manager, you may consider becoming a teacher. In addition to investing, I also like to reflect on various things and are willing to share them with colleagues around me. Happiness and a sense of accomplishment can be gained in the process of sharing.
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